2002 Massachusetts gubernatorial election

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2002 Massachusetts gubernatorial election
Flag of Massachusetts.svg
  1998 November 5, 2002 2006  
Turnout55.29% Increase2.svg 4.1 [1]
  Mitt Romney's official gubernatorial portrait (cropped).jpg Shannon O'Brien (1).jpg
Nominee Mitt Romney Shannon O'Brien
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kerry Healey Chris Gabrieli
Popular vote1,091,988985,981
Percentage49.18%44.40%

2002 Massachusetts gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2002 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Election by Town.svg
2002 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by Congressional District.svg
MA Governor 2002.svg
Romney:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
O'Brien:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%

Governor before election

Jane Swift (acting)
Republican

Elected Governor

Mitt Romney
Republican

The 2002 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican acting governor Jane Swift chose not to seek a full term in office. Republican businessman Mitt Romney defeated Democratic Treasurer Shannon O'Brien.

Contents

This would be the only time Romney won in the state, as in the 2012 presidential election, he lost the state to Barack Obama by a large margin.

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

  • Mitt Romney, businessman and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1994
Withdrew

In 2002, Republican lieutenant governor Jane Swift was expected to campaign for the governor's office, and she had said she would in October 2001. [2] Swift had been serving as acting governor after Republican governor Paul Cellucci resigned upon being appointed U.S. Ambassador to Canada. [2] However, Swift was viewed as an unpopular executive, and her administration was plagued by political missteps and personal and ethical controversies. [2] [3] [4] Many Republicans viewed her as a liability and considered her unable to win a general election against a Democrat. [5]

Prominent GOP activists campaigned to persuade businessman Mitt Romney, who had previously run for the U.S. Senate from the state, to run for governor. [6] Romney was coming off a successful stint as head of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee for the Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games of 2002 [2] and was also mentioned as a possible candidate for Governor of Utah. [4] Romney had previously indicated in fall 2001 that he would not challenge a sitting Republican in running for the Massachusetts governorship, and thus was in a delicate position. [2] [4] Massachusetts Republican State Committee chair Kerry Healey had flown to Utah to personally assess Romney's intentions. [4]

On March 17, Romney flew to Massachusetts; a Boston Herald poll showed him defeating Swift by a 75 percent to 12 percent margin in a Republican primary. [4] [7] Two days later, Swift declared that she had decided not to seek her party's nomination, citing family reasons and also saying "I believe that this is in the best interest of our state, as it will allow the Republican Party's best chances of holding the governor's office in November." [7] Three hours later, Romney announced his candidacy. [2] Romney was subsequently unopposed in the Republican party primary. [8]

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredMitt RomneyJane M. Swift
Boston Herald [9] March 17, 200277%12%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

  • Kerry Healey, chair of the Massachusetts Republican Party
  • Jim Rappaport, former chair of the Massachusetts Republican Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990
Withdrew
Declined

Jim Rappaport, the Republican nominee for United States Senate in 1990 and a political adversary of Jane Swift, was the first Republican to declare his candidacy for lieutenant governor. [15]

In February, Swift named Patrick Guerriero, her deputy chief of staff, as her running mate after multiple others, including Christy Mihos, declined. [14] [16] Guerriero was the nation's first openly gay candidate for lieutenant governor. [17]

After Romney entered the race he selected Kerry Healey, former chairman of the Massachusetts Republican Party, to be his running mate. [18] Shortly after Romney's endorsement of Healey, Guerriero dropped out of the race and gave his support to Healey. [19] Rappaport remained in the race and lost to Healey in the Republican primary.

Results

Massachusetts Republican lieutenant gubernatorial primary, 2002
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kerry Healey 159,667 62.76
Republican Jim Rappaport 88,06134.62
Write-in 2410.09
Total votes247,969 100.00

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Withdrew

The leader in most of the polls conducted was O'Brien, who was a longtime insider with four generations of heritage in the Beacon Hill political establishment. [2] [4] However, she faced criticism for some of the losing investments she had made as state treasurer. [2]

Reich's candidacy attracted considerable media attention, especially due to the 1997 publication of his memoir of working for the Clinton administration, Locked in the Cabinet. Reich had received criticism for embellishing events with invented dialogue, and the book had so angered Bill Clinton that he endorsed Grossman instead. [2]

Of the Democrats running, only Tolman elected to accept Clean Elections funding. [2]

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredShannon O'BrienTom BirminghamRobert ReichWarren Tolman
Boston Globe/WBZ-TVSeptember 13, 200231%22%22%13%

Results

In the September 17, 2002, primary, O'Brien won with 33 percent of the vote; Reich came in second with 25 percent, followed by 24 percent for Birmingham and 18 percent for Tolman (Grossman had dropped out before then). [2]

Democratic primary results by municipality Massachusetts Democratic gubernatorial primary results by municipality, 2002.svg
Democratic primary results by municipality
Massachusetts Democratic gubernatorial primary, 2002
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Shannon O'Brien 243,039 32.52
Democratic Robert Reich 185,31524.80
Democratic Tom Birmingham 179,70324.05
Democratic Warren Tolman 132,15717.69
Democratic Steve Grossman 5,9760.80
Write-in 1,1130.15
Total votes747,303 100.00

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Eliminated at convention
  • Sarah Cannon Holden [20]
Withdrew

Gabrieli was the running mate of Shannon O'Brien while Slattery and Pines were not affiliated with any candidate.

Results

Massachusetts Democratic lieutanant gubernatorial primary, 2002
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Chris Gabrieli 306,043 46.18
Democratic Lois Pines 205,20830.96
Democratic John P. Slattery 150,31322.68
Write-in 1,1850.18
Total votes662,749 100.00

General election

Candidates

Question of Romney's residency

Before the primaries concluded, Democratic officials claimed that Romney was ineligible to run for governor, citing residency issues. The Massachusetts Constitution requires that a gubernatorial candidate be an "inhabitant" for seven consecutive years prior to a run for office. [26] [27]

Romney had attended business and law school at Harvard and spent his entire business career in Massachusetts until being hired to organize the Salt Lake Olympics in 1999. In 1999, Romney had listed himself as a part-time Massachusetts resident, [28] Romney had claimed residency in Utah from 1999 to 2002, during his time as president of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee and received a $54,000 property tax break there. Romney now offered to pay back that exemption. [2] Romney said that he had planned to return to Massachusetts all along.

On June 8, 2002, the Massachusetts Democratic Party filed a complaint with the Massachusetts State Ballot Law Commission, [26] which tended to be lenient in its interpretations of the requirements for residency. [26] At the time the commission was composed of three Republicans, one Democrat and one independent. On June 25, 2002, the commission unanimously ruled that Romney was eligible to run for office, [29] saying that "[Romney] never severed his ties to Massachusetts [and] his testimony was credible in all respects." [4] The ruling was not challenged in court, [30] and Romney accused the Democrats of playing "ridiculous, dirty politics". [4]

Campaign

Romney ran as a political outsider [31] and as an agent of change, saying he would "clean up the mess on Beacon Hill." [4] He said he was "not a partisan Republican" but rather a "moderate" with "progressive" views [32] Romney declared support for faith-based initiatives [2] and campaigned as a pro-choice candidate who would protect a woman's right to an abortion. He rejected the endorsement of Massachusetts Citizens for Life, an anti-abortion organization. [33]

O'Brien claimed Romney was "trying to mask a very conservative set of belief systems". While saying she would not criticize his membership in the LDS Church, she attacked his substantial donations to Brigham Young University, objecting to their bar on expressions of homosexuality. [2] O'Brien came out in support of same-sex marriage. [2]

Supporters of Romney hailed his business record, especially his success with the 2002 Olympics, as that of one who would be able to bring a new era of efficiency into Massachusetts politics. [8] His campaign was the first to use microtargeting techniques, in which small groups of voters were reached with narrowly tailored messaging. [34]

He proposed to reorganize the state government [35] and stressed his ability to obtain federal funds for the state. [36] [37] Romney said he would cut $1 billion out of the $23 billion state budget by eliminating the usual suspects of waste, fraud, and mismanagement while still reducing taxes over a phased period. [4] He also said he was generally against tax increases, but refused to rule out the possibility of a tax increase. [2] He did attempt to paint O'Brien as a 'tax-and-spend liberal'. [4]

O'Brien focused her attacks by portraying Romney as being out of place in Massachusetts. [2] Romney had stumbled earlier in the year by not knowing that "MCAS" stood for the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System of school exams. [2] To soften Romney's image, a series of "work days" had been staged over the summer, in which he performed blue-collar jobs such as herding cows and baling hay, unloading a fishing boat, and hauling garbage. [2] [38] [35] [39] Television ads highlighting the effort, as well as one portraying his family in gushing terms and showing him shirtless, [38] received a poor public response. [35] [39] O'Brien responded, "Massachusetts doesn't need a governor who thinks getting in touch with working people is a costume party." [4]

By mid-October, Romney trailed O'Brien in most polls. [35] [39] He responded with negative ads that accused O'Brien of mismanaging pension funds. Specifically, one ad featured a basset hound sleeping as men removed bags of money from the Massachusetts treasury. Another associated her husband Emmet Hayes, a former lobbyist, with the Enron scandal. [4] [39]

O'Brien's campaign was hobbled by the short amount of time between the primary and the general election and by her having exhausted most of her funds by spending $4.5 million to win the nomination. [2] [4] Romney, able to focus on the general election in the absence of any primary contest, contributed over $6 million to his own campaign during the election, a state record at the time. [2] [40] He raised nearly $10 million for his campaign overall. [41]

Jill Stein campaigned against requiring that students pass the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System tests to graduate high school and in support of clean air and bilingual education. [42] [43]

Debates

In the debates, O'Brien attacked Romney repeatedly. He referred to her style as "unbecoming", which engendered criticism that he was insensitive to women. [2]

After being excluded from the first debate, Stein and Independent candidate Barbara Johnson sued the media organizers of the debate. [44] Middlesex Superior Court Judge Linda Giles ruled against Stein and Johnson, stating that the state's campaign finance laws do not apply to the press organizing political debates and that the invitations to Shannon O'Brien and Mitt Romney did not constitute a campaign contribution. [45]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [46] TossupOctober 31, 2002
Sabato's Crystal Ball [47] Lean D (flip)November 4, 2002

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredShannon
O'Brien (D)
Mitt
Romney (R)
Other
Boston Herald [48] February 27, 200232%38%
Boston Herald [49] September 20, 200245%42%
Institute of Politics/NECN [50] October 2–3, 200240%40%
RKM Research and Communications [51] October 4, 200243%42%
Institute of Politics/NECN [50] October 24–27, 200241%39%11%
Boston Herald [50] October 29, 200244%38%
Boston Globe/WBZ [52] November 1, 200241%40%


Hypothetical polling

with Jane Swift

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredJane Swift (R)Shannon O'Brien (D)Robert Reich (D)Tom Birmingham (D)Steve Grossman (D)Warren Tolman (D)Bill Galvin (D)Marty Meehan (D)
Boston Herald [53] February 18, 200123%37%
25%37%
25%37%
25%25%
25%26%
Boston Globe [54] January 27, 200221%39%
23%35%
23%35%
23%33%
25%27%
24%28%

with Robert Reich

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredRobert Reich (D)Mitt Romney (R)Other
Boston Herald [48] February 27, 200231%40%

Results

Romney and Healey were elected governor and lieutenant governor with 49.2 percent of the vote over O'Brien and Gabrieli, who received 44.4 percent. [55] Ten years later, Romney and Stein ran against each other in the 2012 U.S. presidential election, with both losing to incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama.

Romney performed strongly with Republicans and won many independents in the belt between Route 128 and I-495. He almost ran even with O'Brien in smaller working-class cities, and held down Democratic margins in large urban areas. [2] [4] This was the fourth consecutive win for Republicans in the state gubernatorial contest. [8]

[56]

Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2002
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mitt Romney 1,091,988 49.18% Decrease2.svg0.8%
Democratic Shannon O'Brien 985,98144.40%Decrease2.svg2.2%
Green-Rainbow Jill Stein 76,5303.44%Increase2.svg3.44
Libertarian Carla Howell 23,0441.04%Decrease2.svg0.64
Independent Barbara Johnson15,3350.69%Increase2.svg0.70
Write-in 1,3010.07%Decrease2.svg0.05
Blank26,1221.17%
Total votes2,220,301 100.00 + 4.04
Republican hold Swing + 1.40

Results by county

2002 United States gubernatorial election in Massachusetts (by county) [56]
CountyRomney - R %Romney - R #O'Brien - D %O'Brien - D #Others %Others #Total #
Barnstable 55.9%57,46638.5%39,6405.6%5,734102,840
Berkshire 31.6%13,89761.4%26,9637.0%3,05943,919
Bristol 44.5%71,18950.2%80,2755.3%8,525159,989
Dukes 39.8%2,81552.1%3,6888.0%5697,072
Essex 54.9%141,93239.0%100,7986.2%15,988258,718
Franklin 35.4%9,38154.5%14,43810.0%2,65326,472
Hampden 48.2%66,11446.2%63,4705.6%7,696137,280
Hampshire 33.4%18,35858.6%32,2298.1%4,45655,043
Middlesex 48.9%267,57944.2%241,9347.0%38,152547,665
Nantucket 49.7%1,97444.0%1,7466.3%2483,968
Norfolk 52.9%140,44041.5%110,1985.5%14,691265,329
Plymouth 57.1%100,02937.7%65,9785.2%9,189175,196
Suffolk 33.7%60,62358.4%105,2807.9%14,246180,149
Worcester 54.7%140,19138.7%99,3446.6%16,910256,445

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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