2002 Arizona gubernatorial election

Last updated

2002 Arizona gubernatorial election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  1998 November 5, 2002 2006  →
Turnout56.33% [1]
  Portrait Napolitano hires crop.JPG Congressional Portrait of Matt Salmon.jpg Richard Mahoney.jpg
Nominee Janet Napolitano Matt Salmon Richard Mahoney
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Popular vote566,284554,46584,947
Percentage46.19%45.22%6.9%
2002 Arizona gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Napolitano:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Salmon:     40–50%     50–60%
Governor before election

Jane Dee Hull
Republican

Elected Governor

Janet Napolitano
Democratic

Republican primary results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Salmon 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 2002 Arizona gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Republican primary results by county
  Salmon
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results by county Napolitano 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Gutierrez 30-40% 2002 Arizona gubernatorial Democratic primary election results map by county.svg
Democratic primary results by county
  Napolitano
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Gutierrez
  •   30–40%
Libertarian primary results by county Hess 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Fallon 50-60% Tie 2002 Arizona gubernatorial Libertarian primary election results map by county.svg
Libertarian primary results by county
  Hess
  •   50-60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Fallon
  •   50–60%
  Tie

The 2002 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican governor Jane Dee Hull was term-limited. The Democratic nominee, Arizona Attorney General Janet Napolitano, narrowly defeated Republican Matt Salmon, a former U.S. Representative. Upon her inauguration, Napolitano became the first woman to succeed another woman as governor of a state. This was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona in which the margin of victory was single-digit margin until 2022, and the last time that a winning candidate won governorship without Maricopa County.

Contents

Republican primary

Candidates

Declined to run

Results

Republican primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Matt Salmon 174,055 55.99%
Republican Betsey Bayless 92,47329.75%
Republican Carol Springer 44,33314.26%
Republican Steve Moore (write-in)160.01%
Republican Diana Kennedy (write-in)80.00%
Total votes310,885 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Janet Napolitano 128,702 57.23%
Democratic Alfredo Gutierrez50,37722.40%
Democratic Mark Osterloh31,42213.97%
Democratic Mike Newcomb14,3736.39%
Total votes224,874 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Results

Libertarian primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Barry Hess 1,414 51.01%
Libertarian Gary Fallon1,35848.99%
Total votes2,772 100.00%

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [4] TossupOctober 31, 2002
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5] Lean D (flip)November 4, 2002

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Janet
Napolitano (D)		Matt
Salmon (R)		Richard
Mahoney (I)		Barry
Hess (L)		Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA [6] October 29–31, 2002661 (LV)± 3.9%43%41%11%3%1%

Results

The election was extremely close: Napolitano won by just 11,819 votes out of 1,226,111 cast, the closest gubernatorial election in Arizona in many years. Napolitano also won without carrying Maricopa County. Under Arizonan law, the losing candidate may request a recount, for which that candidate must pay, if the margin of victory is less than one percent but greater than half of one percent. In 2002, the margin of victory in 2002 was 1.0%, barely allowing a recount.

It soon became apparent that Napolitano had won the election and would be the next governor of Arizona. Salmon acknowledged that the chance of his prevailing in a recount was extremely small and decided not to ask for one (recounts seldom see a swing over 1,000 votes;[ citation needed ] he was losing by over 10,000). He officially called Napolitano on November 17 and congratulated her on her victory.

On November 20, Arizona Secretary of State Betsey Bayless certified the results of the election and declared Napolitano the governor-elect.

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2002 [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Janet Napolitano 566,284 46.19% +10.66%
Republican Matt Salmon 554,46545.22%−15.72%
Independent Richard D. Mahoney 84,9476.93%
Libertarian Barry Hess 20,3561.66%−1.01%
Independent Carlton Rahmani (write-in)290.00%
Independent Tracey Sturgess (write-in)150.00%
Independent Naida Axford (write-in)50.00%
Independent Raymond Caplette (write-in)50.00%
Independent D'Herrera Tapia (write-in)40.00%
Independent L. D. Talbow (write-in)10.00%
Majority 11,8190.96%
Total votes1,226,111 100.00%
Democratic gain from Republican Swing +26.38%

Results by county

CountyJanet Napolitano
Democratic		Matt Salmon
Republican		Richard D. Mahoney
Independent		Barry Hess
Libertarian		All others
Write-in		MarginTotal votes
cast [7]
# %# %# %# %# %# %
Apache 10,92761.22%4,04122.64%2,51614.10%3652.04%10.01%6,88638.58%17,850
Cochise 11,40141.08%13,21047.60%2,7139.78%4261.53%40.01%-1,809-6.52%27,754
Coconino 18,92854.89%11,58533.59%3,2609.45%7092.06%30.01%7,34321.29%34,485
Gila 7,33147.44%6,33641.00%1,4679.49%3172.05%10.01%9956.44%15,452
Graham 2,92436.64%4,49156.27%4675.85%991.24%00.00%-1,567-19.63%7,981
Greenlee 96644.91%95544.40%1808.37%502.32%00.00%110.51%2,151
La Paz 1,48841.04%1,76648.70%2597.14%1133.12%00.00%-278-7.67%3,626
Maricopa 313,10744.43%337,95447.95%42,6966.06%10,9661.56%270.00%-24,847-3.53%704,750
Mohave 13,22737.59%18,43152.38%2,8898.21%6391.82%00.00%-5,204-14.79%35,186
Navajo 11,66949.74%9,42340.17%1,9208.18%4441.89%20.01%2,2469.57%23,458
Pima 118,89651.74%89,00238.73%17,7517.72%4,1401.80%140.01%29,89413.01%229,803
Pinal 18,30048.13%16,38043.08%2,6586.99%6821.79%30.01%1,9205.05%38,023
Santa Cruz 3,67557.93%2,06932.61%4957.80%1051.66%00.00%1,60625.32%6,344
Yavapai 23,23840.50%28,24549.23%4,8668.48%1,0241.78%30.01%-5,007-8.73%57,376
Yuma 10,20746.67%10,57748.36%8103.70%2771.27%10.00%-370-1.69%21,872
Totals566,28446.19%554,46545.22%84,9476.93%20,3561.66%590.00%11,8190.96%1,226,111

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ↑ "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State" . Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  2. ↑ Ayres, B. Drummond Jr. (February 11, 2001). "Political Briefing; From Arizona, Talk Of a Bid by Quayle (Published 2001)". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  3. 1 2 3 "State of Arizona Official Canvass 2002 Primary Election - September 10, 2002" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  4. ↑ "Governor Updated October 31, 2002 | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. October 31, 2002. Archived from the original on December 8, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
  5. ↑ "Governors Races". www.centerforpolitics.org. November 4, 2002. Archived from the original on December 12, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
  6. ↑ SurveyUSA
  7. 1 2 "State of Arizona Official Canvass 2002 General Election - November 5, 2002" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
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