2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

Last updated

2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2006 November 4, 2008 (2008-11-04) 2010  

All 8 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives
Turnout77.69%
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election44
Seats won53
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 1Decrease2.svg 1
Popular vote1,055,3051,021,798
Percentage45.5%44.0%
SwingIncrease2.svg 3.46%Decrease2.svg 7.62%

2008 Arizona United States House of Representatives election by Congressional District.svg

The 2008 congressional elections in Arizona were held on November 4, 2008, to determine who would represent the state of Arizona in the United States House of Representatives, coinciding with the presidential election. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; those elected would serve in the 111th Congress from January 4, 2009, until January 3, 2011.

Contents

Arizona had eight seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Its 2007-2008 congressional delegation consisted of four Republicans and four Democrats. Two of the Democrats had taken Republican seats in 2006, and were at risk during the 2008 election. The delegation elected in 2008 consisted of three Republicans and five Democrats: district 1 changed party (from open Republican to Democratic), although CQ Politics had forecast districts 1, 3, 5 and 8 to be at some risk for the incumbent party. [1]

The party primary elections were held September 2, 2008. [2]

Overview

Statewide

PartyCandidatesVotesSeats
No. %No.+/– %
Democratic 81,055,30545.475Increase2.svg 162.50
Republican 81,021,79844.033Decrease2.svg 137.50
Libertarian 861,1002.630Steady2.svg0.0
Independent 49,4110.410Steady2.svg0.0
Green 28,0800.350Steady2.svg0.0
Valid votes2,155,69492.88
Invalid or blank votes165,1577.12
Total302,320,851100.08Steady2.svg100.0
Popular vote
Democratic
45.47%
Republican
44.03%
Libertarian
2.63%
Green
0.35%
Other
0.41%
House seats
Democratic
62.50%
Republican
37.50%

By district

Results of the 2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:

District Democratic Republican OthersTotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1 155,79155.88%109,92439.43%13,0724.69%278,787100.0%Democratic gain
District 2 125,61137.16%200,91459.44%11,4983.40%338,023100.0%Republican hold
District 3 115,75942.07%148,80054.08%10,6023.85%275,161100.0%Republican hold
District 4 89,72172.11%26,43521.25%8,2716.65%124,427100.0%Democratic hold
District 5 149,03353.16%122,16543.57%9,1673.27%280,365100.0%Democratic hold
District 6 115,45734.55%208,58262.42%10,1373.03%334,176100.0%Republican hold
District 7 124,30463.26%64,42532.79%7,7603.95%196,489100.0%Democratic hold
District 8 179,62954.72%140,55342.82%8,0842.46%328,266100.0%Democratic hold
Total1,055,30545.47%1,021,79844.03%78,59110.50%2,155,694100.0%

District 1

2008 Arizona's 1st congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2006
2010  
  Ann Kirkpatrick, official portrait, 111th Congress.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Ann Kirkpatrick Sydney Hay
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote155,791109,924
Percentage55.9%39.4%

2008 AZ-1 Election Results.svg
County results
Kirkpatrick:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Hay:     40–50%     50-60%

U.S. Representative before election

Rick Renzi
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ann Kirkpatrick
Democratic

Incumbent Republican Rick Renzi, who had represented the district since 2003, did not run for re-election. He was re-elected with only 52% of the vote compared to 44% for his Democratic opponent Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona district in 2004. The district had a PVI of R+2. [3]

Republican primary

In August 2007, Renzi announced he would not seek re-election, [4] four months after the FBI raided Renzi's family business as part of a federal investigation.

Candidates

In the Republican primary, Sydney Ann Hay, mining industry lobbyist, earned a narrower-than-expected victory against Sandra L. B. Livingstone, Tom Hansen and Barry Hall. [5]

Nominee
  • Sydney Hay, mining industry lobbyist and candidate for this seat in 2002 [6] [7]
Eliminated in primary
  • Barry Hall, former Baptist minister [8]
  • Sandra Livingstone, former State Department official and lawyer [9]
  • Tom Hansen, engineer [10]
Withdrawn
  • Preston Korn, candidate for state representative in 2006
Declined

Results

Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Sydney Ann Hay 17,825 39.1
Republican Sandra Livingstone15,62134.2
Republican Tom Hansen7,84717.2
Republican Barry Hall2,7436.0
Republican Preston Korn (Withdrew)1,5963.5
Total votes45,632 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Jeffrey Brown, mental health advocate
  • Mary Kim Titla, publisher and former Phoenix TV newscaster [11]
  • Howard Shanker, attorney [16]
Withdrawn
  • Allan Affeldt, Mayor of Winslow [16]
  • Ellen Simon, civil rights attorney and nominee for this seat in 2006 [11] [16] (dropped out in May 2007, citing personal reasons)
Declined

Endorsements

Kirkpatrick earned endorsements from leaders in government, education, tribal communities, first responders, and other groups. Among those endorsing her were: Governor Janet Napolitano, U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords, U.S. Representative Harry Mitchell, the Arizona Education Association, the Arizona Police Association, the Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs, the International Association of Fire Fighters, Navajo County School Superintendent Linda Morrow, county sheriffs in Coconino, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, Navajo, and Pinal Counties, Coconino County School Superintendent Cecilia Owen, Pinal County School Superintendent Orlenda Roberts, Navajo Nation President Joe Shirley Jr., San Carlos Apache Tribal Chair Wendsler Nosie, White Mountain Apache Tribal Chair Ronnie Lupe, former Navajo Nation President Dr. Peterson Zah, and many other tribal leaders. [17] The Arizona Republic, the state's largest newspaper, and the White Mountain Independent and the Arizona Daily Sun, two of the most widely read newspapers in the district, also endorsed her candidacy.

Results

Kirkpatrick won by almost 15 points over Kim Titla.

Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 26,734 47.2
Democratic Mary Kim Titla18,42832.6
Democratic Howard Shanker8,05614.2
Democratic Jeffrey Brown3,3766.0
Total votes56,594 100.0

Libertarian primary

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Thane Eichenauer (write-in)43 100.0
Total votes43 100.0

Independents

Independent Brent Maupin, a Sedona engineer and businessman.

General election

Campaign

Kirkpatrick ran on a platform of tax cuts for 86 million middle-class families, making health care affordable and accessible to all, and encouraging renewable energy projects to end America's dependence on foreign energy and create jobs for rural Arizona. She also supported increasing teacher salaries, expanding SCHIP, and adding a division to the army. As a member of the Arizona State Legislature, Kirkpatrick was known for her willingness to work across party lines.

Hay meanwhile ran on increasing offshore drilling and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as well as tapping oil reserves in Colorado and Wyoming to stimulate the economy. She also recognized the need to reach across party lines to create meaningful change.

Predictions

The Cook Political Report ranked this race as 'Likely Democratic,' and CQ Politics, the Rothenberg Political Report, and The New York Times all forecast the race as 'Leans Democratic'.

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [18] Likely D (flip)November 6, 2008
Rothenberg [19] Likely D (flip)November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball [20] Lean D (flip)November 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics [21] Lean D (flip)November 7, 2008
CQ Politics [22] Lean D (flip)November 6, 2008

Results

Kirkpatrick's victory resulted in a House gain for Democrats.

Arizona's 1st congressional district election, 2008 [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 155,791 55.9
Republican Sydney Hay109,92439.4
Independent Brent Maupin9,3943.4
Libertarian Thane Eichenauer3,6781.3
Total votes278,787 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 2

2008 Arizona's 2nd congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2006
2010  
  Trent Franks, official portrait, 108th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Trent Franks John Thrasher
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote200,914125,611
Percentage59.4%37.2%

2008 AZ-2 Election Results.svg
County results
Thrasher:     60-70%     70-80%
Franks:     50–60%     60-70%

U.S. Representative before election

Trent Franks
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Trent Franks
Republican

Incumbent Republican Trent Franks, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 58.6% of the vote in 2006. The district had a PVI of R+9. [3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Trent Franks (incumbent) 58,707 100.0
Total votes58,707 100.0

Democratic primary

In what was essentially a rematch of the previous election, Franks was challenged by Democrat John Thrasher(campaign website)

Candidates

Nominee
  • John Thrasher, educator and nominee for this seat in 2006

Results

Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Thrasher 27,711 100.0
Total votes27,711 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Powell Gammill, molecular biologist and nominee for this seat in 2004 and 2006

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Powell Gammill 199 100.0
Total votes199 100.0

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • William Crum

Results

Green primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green William Crum 118 100.0
Total votes118 100.0

General election

Predictions

CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Safe Republican'.

Results

Arizona's 2nd congressional district election, 2008 [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Trent Franks (incumbent) 200,914 59.4
Democratic John Thrasher125,61137.2
Libertarian Powell Gammill7,8822.3
Green William Crum3,6161.1
Total votes338,023 100.0
Republican hold

District 3

2008 Arizona's 3rd congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2006
2010  
  JohnShadegg.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee John Shadegg Bob Lord
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote148,800115,759
Percentage54.1%42.1%

2008 AZ-3 Election Results.svg
County results
Shadegg:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

John Shadegg
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

John Shadegg
Republican

Incumbent Republican John Shadegg, who had represented the district since 1995, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 59.3% of the vote in 2006. This district was previously held by Arizona's junior United States senator, Republican Jon Kyl. The district had a PVI of R+6. [3]

Republican primary

An outspoken conservative, Shadegg has consistently been re-elected in this Republican-leaning district (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6) in the northern Phoenix suburbs which gave George W. Bush 57.9 percent of the vote in 2004. However, Lord outraised Shadegg in the first quarter of 2007 and even had more cash on hand compared to Shadegg, which resulted in an unusually competitive race. However, Shadegg's campaign team noted that Shadegg's funds are smaller than expected due to Shadegg donating most of the money in 2006 to fellow Republicans in a last-ditch, albeit lackluster attempt to retain control of Congress. [24]

On February 11, 2008, incumbent Shadegg announced he would not run for an eighth term, saying that he wanted to "seek a new challenge in a different venue to advance the cause of freedom." However, on February 21, Shadegg retracted the statement and announced he would seek re-election. [25] Over 140 Republicans in Congress had signed a letter asking Shadegg to keep his seat. [26] Although it was speculated that he would run for the United States Senate if John McCain were to become president, [27] Shadegg had expressed his intention to leave public life and return to the private sector [26] before changing his mind.

Steve May a former state representative had announced a run for the seat [28] but withdrew from the race when Shadegg announced he would seek another term after all. [29]

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn
Declined

Results

Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Shadegg (incumbent) 43,538 100.0
Total votes43,538 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Bob Lord 22,554 100.0
Total votes22,554 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Michael Shoen

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Michael Shoen 228 100.0
Total votes228 100.0

Independents

Running as independents were Mark Yannone (campaign website), Annie Loyd and Edwin Winkler.

Annie Loyd, running on a platform of "transpartisan politics", has been described by The Arizona Republic as a moderate. Born in South Dakota and a community activist in Los Angeles, Loyd is a 15-year resident of Phoenix. She has also appeared at Columbia University. [31] Shadegg's 2006 Democratic opponent, consultant Herb Paine, announced his support for Loyd.

However, none of the independents made the ballot.

General election

Campaign

The race was covered in the East Valley Tribune and showed a 27% independent voter population and noted increased registration of independents, in a district of 600,000 people cutting across urban Phoenix into rural parts of northern Maricopa county. The Federal Elections Commission reports that as of December 31, 2007, Shadegg had raised over $1,000,000, Lord over $600,000, and Loyd $26,000. May and Winkler had not reported any fundraising. [32] [33]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Shadegg (R)
Bob
Lord (D)
Michael
Shoen (L)
Undecided
Research 2000 (Daily Kos) [34] October 20–22, 2008400 (LV)±5.0%50%40%2%8%
Research 2000 (Daily Kos) [35] October 6–8, 2008400 (LV)±5.0%48%39%2%11%
Anzalone Liszt Research (D-DCCC) [36] October 6–8, 2008400 (LV)±4.9%44%45%5%6%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [18] Lean RNovember 6, 2008
Rothenberg [19] Likely RNovember 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball [20] Lean RNovember 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics [21] Lean RNovember 7, 2008
CQ Politics [22] Lean RNovember 6, 2008

Results

Despite having his campaign privately criticized by Republican operatives, Shadegg was re-elected by 12 points in strong Democratic year. [37]

Arizona's 3rd congressional district election, 2008 [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Shadegg (incumbent) 148,800 54.1
Democratic Bob Lord115,75942.1
Libertarian Michael Shoen10,6023.9
Total votes275,161 100.0
Republican hold

District 4

2008 Arizona's 4th congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2006
2010  
  Rep. Ed Pastor.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Ed Pastor Don Karg
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote89,72126,435
Percentage72.1%21.3%

2008 AZ-4 Election Results.svg
County results
Pastor:     70-80%

U.S. Representative before election

Ed Pastor
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Ed Pastor
Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Ed Pastor, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 72.5% of the vote in 2006. The district had a PVI of D+14. [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ed Pastor (incumbent) 18,660 100.0
Total votes18,660 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Don Karg

Results

Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Don Karg 8,073 99.9
Republican Richard Grayson (write-in)80.1
Total votes8,081 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Joe Cobb, retired economist and nominee for the 7th District in 2006

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Joe Cobb 156 100.0
Total votes156 100.0

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Rebecca DeWitt, accountant

Results

Green primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Rebecca DeWitt 71 100.0
Total votes71 100.0

General election

Predictions

CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Safe Democrat'.

Results

Arizona's 4th congressional district election, 2008 [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ed Pastor (incumbent) 89,721 72.1
Republican Don Karg26,43521.3
Green Rebecca DeWitt4,4643.6
Libertarian Joe Cobb3,8073.1
Total votes124,427 100.00
Democratic hold

District 5

2008 Arizona's 5th congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2006
2010  
  Harry Mitchell, official portrait, 110th Congress (cropped).jpg David Schweikert (cropped).jpg
Nominee Harry Mitchell David Schweikert
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote149,033122,165
Percentage53.2%43.6%

2008 AZ-5 Election Results.svg
County results
Mitchell:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

Harry Mitchell
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Harry Mitchell
Democratic

This district has been represented by Democrat Harry Mitchell since 2007. Mitchell unseated conservative Republican J.D. Hayworth by 50% to 47% in this Republican-leaning district in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs that gave George W. Bush 54% of the vote in 2004. The largely Republican nature of this district made a tough 2008 race certain, though Mitchell, who has a government complex in Tempe named after him, had won a lot of tough elections in the past. The district had a PVI of R+4. [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Harry Mitchell (incumbent) 25,174 100.0
Total votes25,174 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Results

Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican David Schweikert 14,233 29.5
Republican Susan Bitter Smith13,21227.4
Republican Laura Knaperek7,52315.6
Republican Mark Anderson6,53913.6
Republican Jim Ogsbury6,04212.5
Republican Lee Gentry7061.5
Total votes48,255 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Warren Severin, businessman and nominee for this seat in 2006

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Warren Severin 207 100.0
Total votes207 100.0

General election

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Harry
Mitchell (D)
David
Schweikert (R)
Undecided
Bennett, Petts and Normington (D) [42] March 9–11, 2008400 (LV)±4.9%50%24%26%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Harry
Mitchell (D)
Laura
Knaperek (R)
Undecided
Bennett, Petts and Normington (D) [42] March 9–11, 2008400 (LV)±4.9%49%26%25%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [18] Likely DNovember 6, 2008
Rothenberg [19] Safe DNovember 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball [20] Lean DNovember 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics [21] Safe DNovember 7, 2008
CQ Politics [22] Lean DNovember 6, 2008

Results

Arizona's 5th congressional district election, 2008 [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Harry Mitchell (incumbent) 149,033 53.2
Republican David Schweikert 122,16543.6
Libertarian Warren Severin9,1583.3
Write-In Ralph Hughes90.0
Total votes280,365 100.0
Democratic hold

District 6

2008 Arizona's 6th congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2006
2010  
  Jeff Flake.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Jeff Flake Rebecca Schneider
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote208,582115,457
Percentage62.4%34.6%

2008 AZ-6 Election Results.svg
County results
Flake:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

Jeff Flake
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Jeff Flake
Republican

Incumbent Republican Jeff Flake, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 74.8% of the vote in 2006. There was no Democratic candidate in this heavily Republican district in 2004 or 2006. George W. Bush won with 64% here in 2004. The district had a PVI of R+12. [3]

Republican primary

Flake, who was perhaps best known for his opposition to pork barrel projects and advocacy for earmark reform ran unopposed.

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jeff Flake (incumbent) 51,562 100.0
Total votes51,562 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Richard Grayson, an Apache Junction resident who ran as a write-in candidate in Florida's 4th congressional district in 2004, filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for this seat as a Democrat, as did trucking-firm account manager Chris Gramazio. Rebecca Schneider (campaign website), a library supervisor from Mesa, also filed and ended up defeating Gramazio in the Democratic primary.

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Chris Gramazio, trucking-firm account manager
Withdrawn

Results

Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Rebecca Schneider 15,644 73.8
Democratic Chris Gramazio5,56826.2
Total votes21,212 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Rick Biondi

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Rick Biondi 175 100.0
Total votes175 100.0

General election

Predictions

CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Safe Republican'.

Results

Arizona's 6th congressional district election, 2008 [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jeff Flake (incumbent) 208,582 62.4
Democratic Rebecca Schneider 115,45734.6
Libertarian Rick Biondi10,1373.0
Total votes334,176 100.0
Republican hold

District 7

2008 Arizona's 7th congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2006
2010  
  Raul Grijalva 109th pictorial.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Raúl Grijalva Joseph Sweeney
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote124,30464,425
Percentage63.3%32.8%

2008 AZ-7 Election Results.svg
County results
Grijalva:     40-50%     50–60%     70-80%
Sweeney:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

Raúl Grijalva
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Raúl Grijalva
Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 61.1% of the vote in 2006. The district had a PVI of D+10. [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) 30,630 100.0
Total votes30,630 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Joseph Sweeney, educator, nominee for this seat in 2004 and candidate in 2000, 2002 & 2006
Eliminated in primary

Results

Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Joseph Sweeney 11,011 66.8
Republican Milton Chewning5,46433.2
Total votes16,475 100.0

Libertarian primary

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Raymond Petrulsky (write-in)33 100.0
Total votes33 100.0

General election

Predictions

CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Safe Democrat'.

Results

Arizona's 7th congressional district election, 2008 [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) 124,304 63.3
Republican Joseph Sweeney64,42532.8
Libertarian Raymond Petrulsky7,7554.0
Write-In Harley Meyer50.0
Total votes196,489 100.0
Democratic hold

District 8

2008 Arizona's 8th congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2006
2010  
  Gabrielle Giffords, official portrait, 111th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Gabby Giffords Tim Bee
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote179,629140,553
Percentage54.7%42.8%

2008 AZ-8 Election Results.svg
County results
Giffords:     40–50%     50–60%
Bee:     50-60%

U.S. Representative before election

Gabby Giffords
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Gabby Giffords
Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Gabby Giffords, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. She was elected with 54.3% of the vote in 2006. The district had a PVI of R+1. [3]

Bush narrowly won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry in 2004.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gabby Giffords (incumbent) 46,223 100.0
Total votes46,223 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tim Bee 52,671 100.0
Total votes52,671 100.0

Libertarian primary

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Paul Davis (write-in)40 100.0
Total votes40 100.0

Independents

Derek Tidball (campaign website) also ran.

General election

Campaign

Early on in the campaign Bee was assessed by the Rothenberg Political Report to be the number one challenger race in the nation saying "In 2008, Giffords will face state Senate President Tim Bee (R), whose candidacy represents a slice of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy election cycle for national Republicans... the 8th District should feature one of the most competitive races for the House in the country." [44] Roll Call stated said that Bee's candidacy "erases some key advantages the freshman incumbent carried into her successful 2006 Congressional campaign." [45]

Giffords attracted a lot of attention in late May and June due to the shuttle flight of her husband Mark E. Kelly, who served as commander of the space shuttle's STS-124 mission. [46]

Bee's campaign generated state and national press coverage when his campaign co-chair, former Congressman Jim Kolbe, resigned and withdrew his support in early July. [47] [48] [49] Kolbe had held the seat for 22 years until Giffords took office in 2007.

On July 13, the Arizona Republic summarized the race: "Giffords has proved adept at fundraising and is considered a rising star in Democratic circles. But Bee is one of the state's highest-profile political figures and has enlisted the support of some heavy-hitters, including President Bush, the headliner of a Tucson fundraiser planned for later this month." Giffords has the "advantages of incumbency. Plus, Bee is just off a tough legislative term in which he drew heavy criticism for his role in a state budget deal and the referral of an anti-gay-marriage proposal to the November ballot. Bee remains a popular political figure, and registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 14,000 in the district." [1] On July 16, the Arizona Republic reported that freshman Congresswoman Giffords "has proved to be the most successful fundraiser among the state's House delegation and now has more than $2 million in her campaign coffers." [50]

Polling

Bee (R) vs Giffords (D-i) graph of collected poll results from Pollster.com

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Gabby
Giffords (D)
Tim
Bee (R)
Undecided
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) [51] June 18–22, 2008502 (LV)±?%58%32%10%
Kenski (R-Bee) [52] May 15–23, 2008500 (LV)±?%47%40%13%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [18] Likely DNovember 6, 2008
Rothenberg [19] Safe DNovember 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball [20] Lean DNovember 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics [21] Safe DNovember 7, 2008
CQ Politics [22] Lean DNovember 6, 2008

Results

Arizona's 8th congressional district election, 2008 [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gabby Giffords (incumbent) 179,629 54.7
Republican Tim Bee 140,55342.8
Libertarian Paul Davis 8,0812.5
Write-In Paul Price30.0
Total votes328,266 100.0
Democratic hold

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References

Specific

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  42. 1 2 Bennett, Petts and Normington (D)
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  46. Mary Ann Akers, Rep. Giffords's Spacey Party Archived May 23, 2011, at the Wayback Machine The Washington Post, July 16, 2008.
  47. Evan Brown, Kolbe, Bush put AZ-8 back in national spotlight Archived September 7, 2008, at the Wayback Machine PolitickerAZ.com, July 7, 2008.
  48. Bill Hess, Kolbe out of Bee’s hive; Bush set for fundraiser The Sierra Vista Herald, July 4, 2008.
  49. Alexander Burns, Bee Gets Stung By Leading Campaign Backer CBS News, July 7, 2008.
  50. Matthew Benson, Incumbents lead money race The Arizona Republic, July 16, 2008.
  51. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)
  52. Kenski (R-Bee)

General

Preceded by
2006 elections
United States House elections in Arizona
2008
Succeeded by
2010 elections