2008 United States Senate election in Georgia

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2008 United States Senate election in Georgia
Flag of Georgia (U.S. state).svg
←  2002 November 4, 2008 (first round)
December 2, 2008 (runoff)		 2014  →
  Saxby Chambliss.jpg Jim Martin october 2008.png
Nominee Saxby Chambliss Jim Martin
Party Republican Democratic
First round1,867,097
49.76%		1,757,393
46.83%
Runoff 1,228,033
57.44%		909,923
42.56%
2008 United States Senate election in Georgia results map by county.svg
2008 United States Senate runoff election in Georgia results map by county.svg
Chambliss:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Martin:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:     40–50%
U.S. Senator before election

Saxby Chambliss
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Saxby Chambliss
Republican

The 2008 United States Senate election in Georgia took place on November 4, 2008. The runoff election took place on December 2, 2008. Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss, first elected in 2002, sought re-election to his position as a United States Senator from Georgia. He was challenged by Democratic nominee Jim Martin and Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley. After a runoff election on December 2, Chambliss was elected. [1] [2]

Contents

The runoff was necessary as neither Chambliss nor Martin, the two major party candidates, had won a majority of the vote in the first round. Early voting hours were set by county, and started November 17 or November 18. Prior to the runoff, advanced polls were open from November 24 to the 26th. [3] Since the election was a runoff, only those voters who registered in time for the general election could cast ballots. It was the second Senate runoff election to be held in Georgia since runoffs were first mandated in 1964, following a runoff in 1992.

As of 2023, this remains the only time in history that a Republican has won re-election to Georgia's Class 2 Senate seat.

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

2008 Georgia U.S. Senate Republican primary election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Saxby Chambliss (incumbent) 392,902 100.0%
Turnout 392,928100.0%

Democratic primary

The general primary was held July 15, 2008. [4] A run-off between the top two Democratic contenders was held on August 5, in which Jim Martin defeated Vernon Jones. [5]

Candidates

Polling

SourceDateCardwellJonesKnightLanierMartin
Strategic Vision (R) [7] May 9–11, 200820%28%11%5%15%
Insider Advantage [8] May 12, 200814%21%1%5%3%
Mellman Group (D) [9] May 29, 20087%16%2%3%21%
Strategic Vision (R) [7] June 27–29, 200822%25%14%6%17%
Insider Advantage [8] July 8–9, 200811%20%4%1%31%

Initial results

Results [10] for the first round showed that since Vernon Jones did not win a majority of the vote, a runoff was held between him and Martin. Martin subsequently won the runoff.

2008 Georgia U.S. Senate Democratic primary election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Vernon Jones 199,026 40.4%
Democratic Jim Martin 169,635 34.4%
Democratic Dale Cardwell79,18116.1%
Democratic Rand Knight25,6675.2%
Democratic Josh Lanier19,7174.0%
Total votes493,226 100.0%

Run off results

2008 Georgia U.S. Senate Democratic primary election runoff
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jim Martin 191,061 59.9% +25.5%
Democratic Vernon Jones 127,99340.1%−0.3%
Total votes319,054 100.0%

General election

Candidates

Democratic

Jim Martin, a former State Representative, former State Human Resources Commissioner, Vietnam War veteran, and 2006 nominee for lieutenant governor, challenged Chambliss for his seat. He made his support for PeachCare and other social services a signature issue in the campaign. [11]

Libertarian

Allen Buckley - Attorney, accountant, 2004 Senate nominee, and 2006 nominee for lieutenant governor. He was eliminated in the general election, but his endorsement was sought by both the Martin and Chambliss campaigns.[ citation needed ]

Republican

Sen. Saxby Chambliss running for re-election for the first time, is a member of the Republican Party. He was elected to the House of Representatives in 1994 and had only one serious election challenge while in the House. [12] [13] [14] [15] He maintained high ratings from conservative interest groups such as the National Rifle Association of America, and the National Right to Life Committee, [16] and correspondingly low marks from liberal interest groups such as the NAACP and ACLU. [16] He sponsored legislation while in the Senate to replace the income tax with a national sales tax. [17]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [18] TossupOctober 23, 2008
CQ Politics [19] TossupOctober 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report [20] Lean RNovember 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics [21] TossupNovember 2, 2008

Polling

Chambliss vs. Martin

SourceDateChambliss (R)Martin (D)
Rasmussen Reports [22] June 26, 200852%39%
Strategic Vision [23] June 29, 200857%28%
Rasmussen Reports [24] July 21, 200851%40%
Rasmussen Reports [22] August 14, 200850%44%
Survey USA [25] September 14–16, 200853%36%
Rasmussen Reports [22] September 16, 200850%43%
Survey USA [26] September 29, 200846%44%
Research 2000 [27] September 29 – October 1, 200845%44%
Rasmussen Reports [22] October 7, 200850%44%
Insider Advantage [28] October 9, 200845%45%
Survey USA [29] October 12, 200846%43%
Rasmussen Reports [22] October 22, 200847%45%
Rasmussen Reports [22] October 30, 200848%43%
Survey USA [30] November 2, 200848%44%
Public Policy Polling [31] November 2, 200848%46%

Chambliss vs. Jones (Hypothetical)

SourceDateChambliss (R)Jones (D)
Rasmussen Reports [24] July 21, 200859%29%
Strategic Vision [23] June 29, 200857%27%
Rasmussen Reports [22] June 26, 200857%30%
Strategic Vision [32] December 12, 200757%27%
Rasmussen Report [33] November 13, 200755%32%
Rasmussen Report [33] September 23, 200753%28%
Strategic Vision [34] June 24, 200755%31%
Rasmussen Report [33] September 23, 200753%28%
Strategic Vision [34] June 24, 200755%31%
Insider Advantage [35] May 23, 200748%31%
Strategic Vision [36] April 7, 200757%29%

Results

As no candidate reached a majority on November 4, a runoff election was held on December 2, which Chambliss won.

2008 United States Senate general election in Georgia [37] [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Saxby Chambliss (Incumbent) 1,867,097 49.76% −3.01%
Democratic Jim Martin 1,757,393 46.83% +0.93%
Libertarian Allen Buckley127,9233.41%+2.08%
Socialist Workers Eleanor Garcia (write-in)430.00%n/a
Independent William Salomone, Jr. (write-in)290.00%n/a
Majority109,7042.93%−3.95%
Turnout 3,752,577

Runoff election

Candidates

Campaign

Both qualifying candidates' runoff campaigns began in earnest on November 10, when election returns made it clear that a runoff would be required. With an election date of December 2, candidates were given only 3 weeks for additional campaigning.

The Libertarian nominee did not endorse either candidate in the run-off, though both campaigns reportedly inquired about getting Buckley's endorsement. [39] Major political figures such as former President Bill Clinton, Republican Senator and 2008 presidential nominee John McCain and his former running mate Sarah Palin campaigned in Georgia, [40] because of the election's potential to determine whether the Democratic Party could block filibusters in the United States Senate. Historically, run-off elections in Georgia have had significantly lower turnout than have general elections. [41]

Chambliss's campaign verified that former Republican presidential candidates John McCain and Mike Huckabee would be campaigning in Georgia on the Senator's behalf, and former Democratic Governor and former U.S. Senator Zell Miller endorsed Chambliss. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned on Martin's behalf. Sarah Palin campaigned for the Chambliss campaign on December 1, the eve of the run-off election. [42] President-elect Barack Obama had also been invited by the Democratic campaign but decided against making a stop. [43]

The results of the runoff election were of particular interest to both parties. [44] Subsequent to the November 4 general elections, Democrats had captured 58 seats in the Senate, two shy of a filibuster-proof supermajority. The result of Georgia's runoff election, as well as the results of an extremely close race and recount in Minnesota, would determine whether or not the required majority of 60 seats would be met. [45] Although the Democratic nominee lost the runoff, the party would still obtain a supermajority after Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter switched from the Republican party to the Democratic party in April 2009 and Democrat Al Franken won in Minnesota after several recounts in June 2009.

Polling

SourceDateChambliss (R)Martin (D)
Rasmussen Reports [46] November 18, 200850%46%
Public Policy Polling [47] November 23, 200852%46%
Public Policy Polling [48] November 30, 200853%46%

Results

Douglas, Rockdale, Newton, McIntosh, Merriwether, Chattahoochee, Webster, and Marion counties were won by Chambliss in the runoff, after he lost them in the general. Additionally, Mitchell County went from tied to Chambliss, and Early County switched from Chambliss to Martin.

Runoff results [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Saxby Chambliss (Incumbent) 1,228,033 57.44% N/A
Democratic Jim Martin909,92342.56%N/A
Majority318,11014.88%
Turnout 2,137,956
Republican hold Swing

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (December 2, 2008). "gop Senate win in Georgia means Democrats can't halt filibusters". CNN.
  2. ↑ "GOP's Chambliss wins Ga. Senate runoff". NBC News. Associated Press. December 2, 2008.
  3. ↑ Elections Division Archived November 12, 2008, at the Wayback Machine Georgia Secretary of State
  4. ↑ Unofficial And Incomplete Results of the Tuesday, July 15, 2008 General Primary Election Georgia Secretary of State
  5. ↑ Kapochunas, Rachel (August 5, 2008). "Martin Wins Georgia Dem Runoff, Will Challenge Sen. Chambliss : Roll Call". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved August 5, 2008.
  6. ↑ "Says Cardwell: Chambliss is 'a borrow-and-spend pawn of the special interests'".
  7. 1 2 Strategic Vision (R)
  8. 1 2 Insider Advantage
  9. ↑ Mellman Group (D)
  10. ↑ 7/15/2008 - Federal and Statewide
  11. ↑ Jones, Walter C. "Candidates differ on prescriptions for health". Savannah Morning News. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  12. ↑ "94 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION STATISTICS". clerk.house.gov. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  13. ↑ "96 PRESIDENTIAL and CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION STATISTICS". clerk.house.gov. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  14. ↑ "1998 Election Statistics - Legislative Activities - Office of the Clerk". clerk.house.gov. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  15. ↑ "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 7, 2000" (PDF). clerk.house.gov. June 21, 2001. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  16. 1 2 "Saxby Chambliss". VoteSmart. Archived from the original on December 18, 2019.
  17. ↑ Wasson, Erik (December 21, 2010). "Deficit panel's ideas to be resurrected in bipartisan Senate bill". The Hill. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  18. ↑ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  19. ↑ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  20. ↑ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  21. ↑ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  22. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Rasmussen Reports
  23. 1 2 Strategic Vision
  24. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  25. ↑ Survey USA
  26. ↑ Survey USA
  27. ↑ "GA-Sen: Holy crap, it *is* tied!". Daily Kos. Archived from the original on October 7, 2008. Retrieved October 7, 2008.
  28. ↑ Insider Advantage
  29. ↑ Survey USA
  30. ↑ Survey USA
  31. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  32. ↑ Strategic Vision
  33. 1 2 3 Rasmussen Report
  34. 1 2 Strategic Vision
  35. ↑ Insider Advantage
  36. ↑ Strategic Vision
  37. ↑ "Georgia Election Results: United States Senator". Georgia Secretary of State. November 10, 2008. Archived from the original on November 12, 2008. Retrieved November 11, 2008.
  38. ↑ "Georgia 2008 General Election". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 11, 2008.
  39. ↑ "Libertarian Allen Buckley Speaks Out on Georgia Senate Run-Off". HuffPost. December 18, 2008. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  40. ↑ "Democrats denied 'super majority' in US Senate". ABC News. December 3, 2008. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  41. ↑ "A Brief History of Georgia Runoffs, and Why This Time May Be Different". insideelections.com. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  42. ↑ "Palin Heads Back to Campaign Trail -- Political Wire". Archived from the original on November 27, 2008. Retrieved November 25, 2008.
  43. ↑ Tharpe, Jim (November 11, 2008). "Senate runoff fast and furious". Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Archived from the original on December 8, 2008. Retrieved November 12, 2008.
  44. ↑ Schor, Elana; MacAskill, Ewen (December 4, 2008). "Republican win in Georgia denies Obama total control of Senate". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  45. ↑ Britt, Russ (November 6, 2008). "Democrats still have shot at filibuster-proof Senate". Market Watch. Retrieved November 12, 2008.
  46. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  47. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  48. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  49. ↑ "Georgia Election Results". State of Georgia Secretary of State. December 2, 2008. Retrieved December 3, 2008.
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