2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky.svg
←  2002 November 4, 2008 2014  →
  Sen Mitch McConnell official cropped.jpg Bruce Lunsford (cropped).jpg
Nominee Mitch McConnell Bruce Lunsford
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote953,816847,005
Percentage52.97%47.03%
2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
County results

McConnell:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Lunsford:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Mitch McConnell
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican

The 2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 4, 2008. Minority Leader and incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell won re-election to a fifth term. Although Barack Obama lost Kentucky by a 16.22% margin to John McCain in the concurrent presidential election, McConnell more narrowly kept his seat with a 5.94% margin against businessman Bruce Lunsford. This was a greatly reduced margin from when he won re-election in 2002 with a 29.4% margin.

Contents

Background

In 2007 Kentucky's unpopular Republican Governor, Ernie Fletcher, lost his re-election bid. The Democrats took control of both Houses of Congress in the 2006 mid-term elections and in October Chuck Schumer acknowledged they were aiming for McConnell's seat. [1]

State auditor Crit Luallen was considered a top contender for the Democratic nomination, but she decided to remain as auditor. [2] Lunsford was asked to run by Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear. [3] Seven candidates competed for the Democratic Primary nomination. The primaries for both parties took place on May 20, 2008, in which Lunsford took more than 50%.

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 168,127 86.09%
Republican Daniel Essek27,17013.91%
Total votes195,297 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Lunsford <40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Fischer <40% 40-50% 2008 United States Senate Democratic primary in Kentucky results map by county.svg
Democratic primary results by county
  Lunsford
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Fischer
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Bruce Lunsford 316,992 51.15%
Democratic Greg Fischer 209,82733.85%
Democratic David L. Williams34,3635.54%
Democratic Michael Cassaro17,3402.80%
Democratic Kenneth Stepp13,4512.17%
Democratic David Wylie7,5281.21%
Democratic James E. Rice2,3653.28%
Total votes619,904 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

In October Lunsford and McConnell were statistically tied in the polls. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said "If Lunsford is actually doing this well, its got to be because the public is so upset by the economic meltdown and may be blaming the legislative leaders." [6]

A debate scheduled for October 7 hosted by the League of Women Voters was canceled when incumbent McConnell decided not to participate even though Lunsford announced he wanted to debate. [7]

On November 2, 2008, media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal noted that the website of The New Republic had reported that anti-McConnell flyers questioning the senator's sexuality as well as the reasons for his 1967 military discharge were being distributed in Kentucky. [8] [9]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [10] Lean ROctober 23, 2008
CQ Politics [11] Lean ROctober 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report [12] Lean RNovember 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics [13] TossupNovember 1, 2008

Polling

Poll SourceDates administeredLunsfordMcConnell
Voter/Consumer Research January 6–8, 200837%52%
Research 2000/
Lexington Herald-Leader/
WKYT-TV Archived July 5, 2008, at the Wayback Machine 		May 7–9, 200836%48%
Voter/Consumer Research May 21–22, 200839%50%
Rasmussen Reports May 22, 200849%44%
Survey USA June 13–16, 200846%50%
Voter/Consumer Research June 15–17, 200839%50%
Rasmussen Reports June 25, 200841%48%
Rasmussen Reports July 29, 200842%52%
Survey USA August 11, 200840%52%
Voter/Consumer Research September 7–9, 200835%52%
Research 2000 for Daily Kos September 15–17, 200837%50%
SurveyUSA September 21–22, 200846%49%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 200842%51%
SurveyUSA October 20, 200848%48%
Rasmussen Reports October 21, 200843%50%
Research 2000/
Lexington Herald-Leader/
WKYT-TV Archived January 20, 2016, at the Wayback Machine 		October 22, 200843%47%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 200844%51%
Survey USA November 1, 200845%53%

Results

General election results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 953,816 52.97% -11.7%
Democratic Bruce Lunsford 847,00547.03%+11.7%
Total votes1,800,821 100.0%
Republican hold

Results breakdown

Election results by county. Red indicates McConnell led in a county, while blue indicates that Lunsford received more votes. Counties are shaded to indicate the margin of victory. KY-USA 2008 Senate Results by County.svg
Election results by county. Red indicates McConnell led in a county, while blue indicates that Lunsford received more votes. Counties are shaded to indicate the margin of victory.
County [15] PrecinctsReporting Lunsford % Lunsford McConnell % McConnellTotal
Adair16162,19830.88%4,92069.12%7,118 (R)
Allen13132,33131.85%4,98768.15%7,318 (R)
Anderson14144,78746.27%5,55853.73%10,345 (R)
Ballard13131,89346.68%2,16253.32%4,055 (R)
Barren24246,73541.15%9,63058.85%16,365 (R)
Bath12122,74761.36%1,73038.64%4,477 (D)
Bell33333,49438.83%5,50561.17%8,999 (R)
Boone606015,22430.75%34,28569.25%49,509 (R)
Bourbon18184,32552.26%3,95147.74%8,276 (D)
Boyd474711,17454.23%9,43045.77%20,604 (D)
Boyle25255,85446.90%6,62753.10%12,481 (R)
Bracken881,38241.17%1,97558.83%3,357 (R)
Breathitt21213,11161.41%1,95538.59%5,066 (D)
Breckinridge15153,73644.02%4,75255.98%8,488 (R)
Bullitt444412,50141.85%17,36858.15%29,869 (R)
Butler12121,77133.59%3,50166.41%5,272 (R)
Caldwell13132,82146.30%3,27253.70%6,093 (R)
Calloway30306,87045.39%8,26654.61%15,136 (R)
Campbell666614,78937.55%24,59162.45%39,380 (R)
Carlisle661,22046.51%1,40353.49%2,623 (R)
Carroll11112,15757.23%1,61242.77%3,769 (D)
Carter23235,22053.74%4,49446.26%9,714 (D)
Casey15151,78330.55%4,05369.45%5,836 (R)
Christian44449,03040.79%13,10959.21%22,139 (R)
Clark26267,43648.49%7,89851.51%15,334 (R)
Clay20202,45833.85%4,80466.15%7,262 (R)
Clinton13131,02925.42%3,01974.58%4,048 (R)
Crittenden12121,61541.59%2,26858.41%3,883 (R)
Cumberland9976328.62%1,90371.38%2,666 (R)
Daviess848420,77947.94%22,56352.06%43,342 (R)
Edmonson10101,99638.06%3,24961.94%5,245 (R)
Elliott771,83071.99%71228.01%2,542 (R)
Estill15152,16241.36%3,06558.64%5,227 (R)
Fayette27427468,02954.15%57,60545.85%125,634 (R)
Fleming18182,84550.04%2,84149.96%5,686 (D)
Floyd424210,10564.35%5,59835.65%15,703 (D)
Franklin444413,88859.00%9,65141.00%23,539 (R)
Fulton13131,45653.49%1,26646.51%2,722 (D)
Gallatin881,43545.66%1,70854.34%3,143 (R)
Garrard13132,85840.11%4,26859.89%7,126 (R)
Grant23233,40839.33%5,25760.67%8,665 (R)
Graves30307,83948.76%8,23951.24%16,078 (R)
Grayson23233,86339.23%5,98360.77%9,846 (R)
Green10101,77735.73%3,19764.27%4,974 (R)
Greenup32328,25852.83%7,37447.17%15,632 (D)
Hancock10102,29856.09%1,79943.91%4,097 (D)
Hardin555517,31843.68%22,32656.32%39,644 (R)
Harlan35354,44045.92%5,22954.08%9,669 (R)
Harrison17173,81450.47%3,74349.53%7,557 (D)
Hart19192,96244.60%3,68055.40%6,642 (R)
Henderson424211,04856.06%8,65943.94%19,707 (D)
Henry20203,19446.52%3,67253.48%6,866 (R)
Hickman661,04947.49%1,16052.51%2,209 (R)
Hopkins40408,48144.87%10,41955.13%18,900 (R)
Jackson14141,24524.71%3,79475.29%5,039 (R)
Jefferson515515195,40155.73%155,24144.27%350,642 (D)
Jessamine37377,84739.60%11,96960.40%19,816 (R)
Johnson31313,25238.81%5,12861.19%8,380 (R)
Kenton10810819,21736.26%33,78763.74%53,004 (R)
Knott30303,47762.14%2,11837.86%5,595 (D)
Knox30304,32939.01%6,76760.99%11,096 (R)
LaRue12122,52341.97%3,48958.03%6,012 (R)
Laurel45456,85031.15%15,13868.85%21,988 (R)
Lawrence18182,64147.47%2,92352.53%5,564 (R)
Lee10101,07339.77%1,62560.23%2,698 (R)
Leslie17171,08325.15%3,22474.85%4,307 (R)
Letcher32324,19851.82%3,90348.18%8,101 (D)
Lewis14141,78738.26%2,88461.74%4,671 (R)
Lincoln17174,11945.47%4,93954.53%9,058 (R)
Livingston10102,14247.35%2,38252.65%4,524 (R)
Logan20204,37940.70%6,37959.30%10,758 (R)
Lyon661,82147.80%1,98952.20%3,810 (R)
McCracken545413,00642.91%17,30357.09%30,309 (D)
McCreary18181,57630.41%3,60669.59%5,182 (R)
McLean882,22550.55%2,17749.45%4,402 (D)
Madison565614,65745.96%17,23754.04%31,894 (R)
Magoffin14142,71958.81%1,90441.19%4,623 (D)
Marion17174,30457.68%3,15842.32%7,462 (D)
Marshall25257,46348.94%7,78551.06%15,248 (R)
Martin14141,20333.19%2,42266.81%3,625 (R)
Mason20203,09544.58%3,84755.42%6,942 (R)
Meade18185,14946.58%5,90553.42%11,054 (R)
Menifee661,52061.51%95138.49%2,471 (D)
Mercer17174,33844.17%5,48455.83%9,822 (R)
Metcalfe12121,76644.03%2,24555.97%4,011 (R)
Monroe12121,23727.16%3,31872.84%4,555 (R)
Montgomery18185,52654.25%4,66045.75%10,186 (D)
Morgan12122,47557.03%1,86542.97%4,340 (D)
Muhlenberg26267,43657.90%5,40642.10%12,842 (R)
Nelson26268,82349.60%8,96550.40%17,788 (R)
Nicholas551,73759.47%1,18440.53%2,921 (D)
Ohio25254,66447.08%5,24252.92%9,906 (R)
Oldham343410,20435.25%18,74464.75%28,948 (R)
Owen13132,01942.93%2,68457.07%4,703 (R)
Owsley8855934.46%1,06365.54%1,622 (R)
Pendleton12122,15537.97%3,52062.03%5,675 (R)
Perry37375,02649.10%5,21150.90%10,237 (R)
Pike575712,91257.16%9,67942.84%22,591 (D)
Powell11112,86357.91%2,08142.09%4,944 (D)
Pulaski57578,10832.20%17,07267.80%25,180 (R)
Robertson5549849.21%51450.79%1,012 (R)
Rockcastle14141,83730.55%4,17769.45%6,014 (R)
Rowan18184,71058.71%3,31241.29%8,022 (D)
Russell16162,45033.67%4,82766.33%7,277 (R)
Scott35359,23847.36%10,26752.64%19,505 (R)
Shelby33337,54641.15%10,79058.85%18,336 (R)
Simpson13133,11844.29%3,92255.71%7,040 (R)
Spencer11113,15939.64%4,81160.36%7,970 (R)
Taylor20204,16338.52%6,64461.48%10,807 (R)
Todd13131,77236.89%3,03263.11%4,804 (R)
Trigg14142,63740.76%3,83359.24%6,470 (R)
Trimble12121,92750.87%1,86149.13%3,788 (D)
Union16163,33555.46%2,67844.54%6,013 (D)
Warren636319,16243.84%24,54756.16%43,709 (R)
Washington14142,31645.04%2,82654.96%5,142 (R)
Wayne19193,04543.30%3,98756.70%7,032 (R)
Webster14143,00054.39%2,51645.61%5,516 (D)
Whitley36364,84936.37%8,48463.63%13,333 (R)
Wolfe881,88662.74%1,12037.26%3,006 (D)
Woodford16165,90348.65%6,23151.35%12,134 (R)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Stein, Sam (October 31, 2007). "Schumer Takes Aim At Senate's Top Republican". Huffington Post . Retrieved October 31, 2007.
  2. ↑ "KY-Sen: Schumer says Crit is in". Daily Kos.
  3. ↑ Gerth, Joseph (January 30, 2008). "Lunsford to challenge McConnell; Lewis is out". Courier-Journal .
  4. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved August 1, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  5. ↑ "2008 Kentucky Statewide Election Results by Office". Kentucky State Board of Elections. June 11, 2008. Retrieved February 16, 2018.
  6. ↑ "McConnell, Lunsford race a dead heat". The Courier-Journal . September 27, 2008. Retrieved September 27, 2008.[ dead link ]
  7. ↑ "Lunsford-McConnell Debate Now Off". Kentucky Post. September 30, 2008. Archived from the original on October 11, 2008. Retrieved October 17, 2008.
  8. ↑ "McConnell Outing Controversy Breaks Into National Mainstream Media". Proud of Who We Are (Press release). Proud of Who We Are. November 3, 2008.
  9. ↑ Michelle, Cottle; Orr, Christopher; Zengerle, Jason (November 2, 2008). "Democratic Gay-Baiting? You Don't Say..." The New Republic . Archived from the original on November 6, 2008.
  10. ↑ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  11. ↑ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  12. ↑ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  13. ↑ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  14. ↑ "Results". elect.ky.gov. Retrieved May 9, 2021.
  15. ↑ "Results". elect.ky.gov. Retrieved May 9, 2021.
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