2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky.svg
←  2008 November 4, 2014 2020  →
Turnout46.27%
  Mitch McConnell official portrait 112th Congress.jpg Alison Lundergan Grimes by Gage Skidmore (1).jpg
Nominee Mitch McConnell Alison Lundergan Grimes
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote806,787584,698
Percentage56.19%40.72%
2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
2014 Kentucky Senate election by congressional district.svg
2014 Kentucky Senate election by state senate district.svg
2014 Kentucky Senate election by State House District.svg
McConnell:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Grimes:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Mitch McConnell
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, ran for re-election to a sixth term. [1] He faced Democratic nominee and Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes and Libertarian nominee David Patterson in the general election.

The race was initially seen as a possible pickup opportunity for Democrats, largely due to McConnell's unpopularity among Kentucky voters. [2] By election day, however, both The Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report considered Republicans to be favored. [3] [4] McConnell ultimately defeated Grimes by a landslide margin [5] of 56.2% to 40.7%.

Republican primary

Immediately after a secret recording of Mitch McConnell and his campaign staff was released to Mother Jones , McConnell expressed concerns about what he saw as a threat from the left. David Adams, a Kentucky Tea Party activist who was seeking a Republican opponent to McConnell, told The New York Times that McConnell's fears about "threats from the left" were misplaced. Adams said: "It's going to come from the right. The fact that he's coming unglued about this thing should make clear to observers that he may not be ready for the challenge that lies ahead." [6]

McConnell won the primary with 60.2% of the vote. [7] According to analysis by the University of Minnesota, this is the lowest voter support for a Kentucky U.S. Senator in a primary by either party since 1938. [8]

Candidates

Candidate Matt Bevin Matt Bevin by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Matt Bevin

Declared

Withdrew

  • Gurley L. Martin, World War II veteran and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 [15] [16]

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Bevin

Public figures

Organizations

Mitch McConnell

Elected officials

Organizations

Declined to endorse

Elected officials

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell		Matt
Bevin		Brad
Copas		Chris
Payne		Shawna
Sterling		Undecided
Wenzel Strategies [51] July 23–24, 2013302± 5.6%58.9%19.9%———21.2%
Voter/Consumer Research ^ [52] August 18–20, 2013600± 4%68%21%———8%
Lake Research Partners [53] October 24–29, 2013603± 4%50%17%———33%
Public Policy Polling [54] December 12–15, 2013540± 4.2%53%26%———21%
Gravis Marketing [55] January 2, 2014683± 4%53%31%———16%
Bluegrass Poll [56] January 30 – February 4, 2014404± 4.9%55%29%———15%
Wenzel Strategies [57] February 8–11, 2014377± 5.03%58.5%17.4%———24.1%
Public Opinion Strategies [58] February 24–26, 2014400± 4.9%61%23%———16%
Gravis Marketing [59] April 15–17, 2014638± 4%51%34%———15%
NBC News/Marist [60] April 30 – May 6, 2014760± 3.6%55%22%1%3%2%17%
Gravis Marketing [61] May 12, 2014629± 4%48%34%———18%
Bluegrass Poll [62] May 14–16, 2014605± 4%55%35%1%1%3%5%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell		Someone more
conservative		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 2012395± 4.9%50%35%15%
Public Policy Polling [64] April 5–7, 2013320± 5.5%46%32%22%
Public Policy Polling [54] December 12–15, 2013540± 4.2%39%42%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell		John
Calipari		Undecided
Gravis Marketing [55] January 2, 2014683± 4%59%26%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell		Thomas
Massie		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 2012395± 4.9%66%18%16%
Public Policy Polling [64] April 5–7, 2013320± 5.5%56%18%27%

Results

Results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} McConnell 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Bevin 40-50% 2014 Kentucky Senate Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county
  McConnell
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Bevin
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [65]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 213,753 60.19%
Republican Matt Bevin125,78735.42%
Republican Shawna Sterling7,2142.03%
Republican Chris Payne5,3381.51%
Republican Brad Copas3,0240.85%
Total votes355,116 100.00%

Democratic primary

In late 2012 and early 2013, media speculation focused on the possibility of a challenge to incumbent Mitch McConnell from actress and Tennessee resident Ashley Judd, [66] who was raised in Kentucky. Judd later announced that she would not seek the Democratic nomination. On April 9, Mother Jones magazine released a tape of a private meeting between McConnell and, allegedly, his aides reviewing opposition research and tactics to use against Judd. At the February strategy session, McConnell referred to the early stages of his re-election bid as the "Whac-A-Mole period of the campaign," and he and aides discussed attacking Judd's religious views as well as her struggle with depression. [67] [68]

Alison Lundergan Grimes, the sitting secretary of state, entered the primary race with the encouragement of former president Bill Clinton, a friend of Grimes's father, former Kentucky politician Jerry Lundergan. [69] On May 20, 2014, she won the Democratic primary with 77% of the vote. [70] [71] Her father's involvement in the campaign was noted as a factor in the race because of his personal political history and fundraising connections. [72] [73]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Alison Lundergan Grimes

Elected officials

Newspapers

Public figures

Organizations

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jerry
Abramson		Matthew
Barzun		Jack
Conway		Adam
Edelen		Greg
Fischer		Alison Lundergan
Grimes		Ashley
Judd		John
Yarmuth		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 2012585± 4.1%16%1%15%2%5%9%29%9%—15%

Results

Results by county Grimes 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2014 Kentucky Senate Democratic primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Grimes
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results [65]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Alison Lundergan Grimes 307,821 76.47%
Democratic Greg Leichty32,6028.10%
Democratic Burrel Farnsley32,3108.03%
Democratic Tom Recktenwald29,7917.40%
Total votes402,524 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

  • David Patterson, police officer [119]

Results

Patterson won the Libertarian primary on March 1, 2014. While he ran unopposed, all Libertarian Party candidates must defeat "none of the above" (NOTA) in the primary operated by the Libertarian Party of Kentucky. [120] He became an official ballot-listed candidate on August 11 after submitting over 9,100 signatures. [121]

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [3] Lean RNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [127] Likely RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [128] Likely RNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [129] Lean RNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Alison
Lundergan
Grimes (D)		David
Patterson (L)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%47%40%——13%
Public Policy Polling [64] April 5–7, 20131,052± 3%45%41%——14%
Public Policy Polling [130] May 23–24, 2013556± 4.2%45%45%——10%
Wenzel Strategies [131] June 1–2, 2013623± 3.9%47%40%——14%
Public Policy Polling [132] July 19–21, 20131,210± 2.8%44%45%——11%
Wenzel Strategies [51] July 23–24, 2013624± 3.9%48%40%——12%
Lake Research Partners [133] August 5–15, 20135,000± 1.4%40%46%——14%
Public Policy Polling [134] October 14–15, 20131,193± 2.8%43%45%——12%
Lake Research Partners [53] October 24–29, 2013603± 4%37%37%—6%19%
DFM Research [135] October 21–29, 2013600± 4%41%40%——19%
Public Policy Polling [54] December 12–15, 20131,509± 2.5%43%42%——15%
Gravis Marketing [136] January 2, 20141,153± 4%42%37%—8% [137] 13%
Public Policy Polling [138] January 24–26, 2014882± ?%45%44%——11%
Rasmussen Reports [139] January 29–30, 2014500± 4.5%42%42%—6%10%
Bluegrass Poll [140] January 30 – February 4, 20141,082± 3%42%46%——12%
Wenzel Strategies [57] February 8–11, 20141,002± 3.06%43%42%——15%
Public Policy Polling [141] April 1–2, 2014663± 4%44%45%——11%
New York Times/Kaiser Family [142] April 8–15, 2014891± ?44%43%—3%11%
Gravis Marketing [59] April 15–17, 20141,359± 3%43%36%—9% [137] 12%
Hickman Analytics [143] April 24–30, 2014500± 4.4%46%45%——9%
NBC News/Marist [60] April 30 – May 6, 20142,353± 2%46%45%—1%8%
Bluegrass Poll [62] May 14–16, 20141,782± 2.1%42%43%4%4% [137] 7%
Wenzel Strategies [144] May 23–24, 2014608± 3.95%47%44%——8%
Rasmussen Reports [145] May 28–29, 2014750± 4%48%41%—5%7%
Magellan Strategies [146] June 4–5, 2014808± 3.45%46%49%——5%
Public Policy Polling [147] June 20–22, 2014682± 3.8%46%48%——6%
Gravis Marketing [148] July 17–20, 20141,054± 3%45%45%——10%
SurveyUSA [149] July 18–23, 2014604± 4.1%41%39%7%—13%
47%45%——8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [150] July 5–24, 20141,546± 4.2%49%45%—2%4%
Wenzel Strategies [151] August 6, 2014 ?± ?47%44%4%—5%
48%44%——8%
Public Policy Polling [152] August 7–10, 2014991± 3.1%44%40%7%—9%
47%42%——11%
Bluegrass Poll [153] August 25–27, 2014569± 4.2%46%42%5%—8%
CNN/ORC [154] August 28 – September 1, 2014671± 4%50%46%—1%3%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [155] August 18 – September 2, 20142,130± 3%47%42%—2%9%
Rasmussen Reports [145] September 1–2, 2014750± 4%46%41%—7%6%
Public Opinion Strategies [156] September 1–3, 2014600 LV± 4%47%42%4%—7%
NBC News/Marist [157] September 2–4, 2014691 LV± 3.7%47%39%8%<1%6%
1,184 RV± 2.8%45%38%9%<1%8%
Magellan Strategies [158] September 4–7, 2014742 LV± 3.6%50%42%6%—2%
Mellman Group* [159] September 4–7, 2014800 LV± 3.5%42%43%——15%
Ipsos [160] September 8–12, 2014944 LV± 3.6%46%42%—5%6%
1,755 RV± 2.7%36%38%—9%17%
ccAdvertising [161] September 9–16, 20142,282± ?42%33%——25%
Gravis Marketing [162] September 13–16, 2014839± 3%51%41%——8%
Mellman Group* [163] September 19–27, 20141,800± 2.3%40%42%3%—16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [164] September 20 – October 1, 20141,689± 3%47%41%2%1%9%
Bluegrass Poll [165] September 29 – October 2, 2014632± 4%44%46%3%—7%
Fox News [166] October 4–7, 20147063.5%45%41%3%3%8%
Gravis Marketing [167] October 11–12, 20141,020± 3%50%47%——3%
Rasmussen Reports [145] October 15–16, 20141,000± 3%52%44%2%—2%
WKU/Big Red Poll [168] October 6–19, 2014 ? LV± ?%45%42%5%—8%
601 RV± 4%45%40%5%—9%
SurveyUSA/Bluegrass Poll [169] October 15–19, 2014655± 3.9%44%43%5%—8%
Voter Consumer Research^ [170] October 16–19, 2014815± 3.5%49%41%3%—7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [164] October 16–23, 20141,502± 4%45%39%2%0%14%
Public Opinion Strategies [171] October 25–27, 2014600± 4%50%43%4%0%3%
SurveyUSA/Bluegrass Poll [172] October 26–30, 2014597± 4.1%48%43%3%—6%
Public Policy Polling [173] October 26–30, 2014556 LV± 4.2%50%41%5%<1%3%
894 RV± 3.3%49%39%6%<1%6%
NBC News/Marist [174] October 26–30, 2014556± 4.2%50%41%5%<1%3%
894± 3.3%49%39%6%<1%6%
Public Policy Polling [173] October 30 – November 1, 20141,503± 2.5%50%42%3%—5%
53%44%——4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Matt
Bevin (R)		Alison Lundergan
Grimes (D)		David
Patterson (L)		OtherUndecided
Wenzel Strategies [51] July 23–24, 2013624± 3.9%35%30%——36%
Lake Research Partners [53] October 24–29, 2013603± 4%20%38%——42%
Public Policy Polling [54] December 12–15, 20131,509± 2.5%39%38%——24%
Bluegrass Poll [175] January 30 – February 4, 20141,082± 3%38%43%——19%
Wenzel Strategies [57] February 8–11, 20141,002± 3.06%36%39%——25%
New York Times/Kaiser Family [142] April 8–15, 2014891± ?35%41%—4%19%
Gravis Marketing [59] April 15–17, 20141,359± 3%32%37%—7%25%
NBC News/Marist [60] April 30 – May 6, 20142,353± 2%37%46%—1%15%
Bluegrass Poll [62] May 14–16, 20141,782± 2.1%38%41%5%4% [137] 12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Jerry
Abramson (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%47%43%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Matthew
Barzun (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%48%37%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Ben
Chandler (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [64] April 5–7, 20131,052± 3%46%41%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Jack
Conway (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%47%43%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Adam
Edelen (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%48%36%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Greg
Fischer (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%46%41%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Tom
FitzGerald (D)		Undecided
Wenzel Strategies [131] June 1–2, 2013623± 3.9%47%30%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Heather
French
Henry (D)		Undecided
Wenzel Strategies [131] June 1–2, 2013623± 3.9%46%40%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Ashley
Judd (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%47%43%10%
Harper Polling [176] February 11–12, 2013850±3.36%49%40%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Ed
Marksberry (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [64] April 5–7, 20131,052± 3%46%35%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		John
Yarmuth (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [63] December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%48%38%14%

Results

United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2014 [177]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 806,787 56.19% +3.22%
Democratic Alison Lundergan Grimes 584,69840.72%−6.31%
Libertarian David M. Patterson44,2403.08%N/A
n/a Write-ins1430.01%N/A
Total votes1,453,868 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

McConnell won 5 of 6 congressional districts. [178]

DistrictMcConnellGrimesRepresentative
1st 61.73%35.14% Ed Whitfield
2nd 58.83%37.83% Brett Guthrie
3rd 41.11%56.94% John Yarmuth
4th 61.08%35.6% Thomas Massie
5th 65.24%31.42% Hal Rogers
6th 50.55%46.0% Andy Barr

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 Raju, Manu (December 20, 2010). "Mitch McConnell plans power plays against Democrats". Politico . Retrieved May 19, 2011.
  2. ↑ Preston, Mark (September 3, 2014). "CNN Poll: McConnell holds slim edge in biggest Senate race of 2014". CNN. Retrieved September 4, 2014.
  3. 1 2 "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
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  160. ↑ Ipsos
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