2014 Michigan gubernatorial election

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2014 Michigan gubernatorial election
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Turnout41.6% Decrease2.svg 1.3 [1]
  Rick Snyder in 2013.jpg Mark Schauer (cropped).jpg
Nominee Rick Snyder Mark Schauer
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Brian Calley Lisa Brown
Popular vote1,605,0341,476,904
Percentage50.92%46.86%
2014 Michigan gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2014 Michigan gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
Snyder:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Schauer:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     
Governor before election

Rick Snyder
Republican

Elected Governor

Rick Snyder
Republican

The 2014 Michigan gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Michigan, concurrently with the election of Michigan's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder ran for re-election to a second term in office. [2] Primary elections took place on August 5, 2014, in which Snyder and former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer were unopposed in the Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively. [3]

Snyder was considered vulnerable in his bid for a second term, as reflected in his low approval ratings. [4] [5] [6] [7] The consensus among The Cook Political Report , [8] Governing , [9] The Rothenberg Political Report , [10] and Sabato's Crystal Ball [11] was that the contest was a "tossup". Snyder was saddled with a negative approval rating, while his Democratic opponent, former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer, suffered from a lack of name recognition. [12] [13] Despite having a more centrist voting record in the House of Representatives, [14] Schauer ran as more of a populist who put education, unions and taxes as his top priorities. [15]

Despite concerns about his approval rating hurting his chances at victory, Snyder was re-elected with 50.9% of the vote. As of 2024, this was the last time a Republican won the governorship of Michigan. This is also the last time the Republican candidate won the counties of Kalamazoo, Oakland, Clinton, Macomb, Kent, Leelanau, and Isabella, and the last time the Democratic candidate won the counties of Alger, Baraga, and Manistee. As of 2024, this is the last time that the winner of the Michigan gubernatorial election won a majority of Michigan's counties. This was the first election since 1990 that the winner was of a different party than the concurrent Senate election.

Republican primary

Polling indicated significant opposition from Republican primary voters in Michigan towards Snyder's bid for re-election. [16] [17] [18] [19] This came in the midst of discussions by the Tea Party network regarding whether incumbent lieutenant governor Brian Calley should be replaced as Snyder's running mate. [16] [20] Snyder started running campaign ads in September 2013, immediately following the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference [21] and formally declared that he is seeking re-election in January 2014. [2]

In August 2013, Tea Party leader Wes Nakagiri announced that he would challenge Calley for the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor. [22] [23] [24] At the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference (September 20–22, 2013), speculation reported by the media also included Todd Courser as a potential challenger to Calley. [25] At the Michigan Republican Party state convention, which took take place on August 23, 2014, incumbent lieutenant governor Brian Calley won renomination. [26]

On January 3, 2014, Mark McFarlin (who had originally declared his intention to run as a Democrat the previous November), announced that he would be running for the Republican nomination. [27] [28] He believed that his populist platform was too conservative for the Democratic ticket, and that he could get crossover support in the general election. However, he did not submit his filing petitions in time to qualify for the August primary ballot. [3]

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Dave
Agema		Undecided
Harper Polling September 4, 2013958±3.17%64%16%20%
iCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%32.39%42.34%25.27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Mike
Bishop		Undecided
iCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%36.83%24.19%38.98%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Keith
Butler		Undecided
iCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%38.98%11.29%49.73%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Betsy
DeVos		Undecided
iCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%40.59%18.41%40.99%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Gary
Glenn		Undecided
iCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%39.11%30.78%30.11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Pete
Hoekstra		Undecided
iCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%47.04%21.77%31.18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Bill
Schuette		Undecided
iCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%31.85%38.44%29.70%

Results

Republican primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rick Snyder (incumbent) 617,720 100
Total votes617,720 100

Democratic primary

Michigan Democratic Party leadership rallied support behind former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer, who ran unopposed in the Democratic Party primary. Party Chairman Lon Johnson encouraged all other potential challengers to stay out of the race so as to avoid a costly and potentially bitter primary campaign. [33] Conservative Democrat and "birther" Mark McFarlin had announced on November 29, 2013, that he was running for the Democratic nomination for governor, [27] but he switched parties on January 3, 2014, [28] leaving Schauer as the only candidate for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Schauer		Bob
King		Undecided
Mitchell Research May 28, 2013361± 5.16%31%38%31%

Results

Democratic primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mark Schauer 513,263 100
Total votes513,263 100

Minor parties

Candidates

Libertarian Party

Green Party

  • Paul Homeniuk [48]
    Running mate: Candace Caveny, nominee for the state senate in 2006, 2008 and 2010 and nominee for the State Board of Education in 2012

U.S. Taxpayers Party

  • Mark McFarlin, Independent write-in candidate for governor in 2002 [48]
    Running mate: Richard Mendoza

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [50] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [51] Lean RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [52] Tilt RNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [53] TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Mark
Schauer (D)		OtherUndecided
Mitchell Research November 3, 20141,310± 2.7%48%47%3% [54] 2%
Mitchell Research November 2, 20141,224± 2.8%47%47%4% [55] 3%
Clarity Campaign Labs November 1–2, 20141,003± 3.08%45%45%—10%
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2014914± 3.2%46%45%4% [56] 5%
47%47%—5%
EPIC-MRA October 26–28, 2014600± 4%45%43%3%9%
Mitchell Research October 27, 20141,159± 2.88%48%43%3% [57] 5%
Glengariff Group October 22–24, 2014600± 4%45%40%5%10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20142,394± 3%44%45%1%11%
Rasmussen Reports October 20–22, 20141,000± 3%49%46%2%3%
Public Policy Polling October 20–21, 2014723± ?48%48%—4%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 19–20, 20141,032± ?41%44%—15%
Mitchell Research October 19, 2014919± 3.23%48%46%3% [54] 3%
EPIC-MRA October 17–19, 2014600± 4%47%39%3%11%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 12–14, 2014967± 3.16%44%42%—13%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 11–13, 20141,032± ?44%43%—13%
Mitchell Research October 12, 20141,340± 2.68%47%44%3% [54] 6%
Mitchell Research October 9, 20141,306± 2.71%47%46%4% [58] 3%
Glengariff Group October 2–4, 2014600± 4%45%37%3% [59] 15%
Public Policy Polling October 2–3, 2014654± 3.8%47%46%—7%
Marketing Resource Group [ permanent dead link ]September 30–October 1, 2014600± 4%46%41%4%10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 20142,560± 2%44%46%1%9%
Lake Research Partners September 27–30, 2014600± 4%44%43%—12%
Mitchell Research September 29, 20141,178± 2.86%46%42%5% [60] 8%
EPIC-MRA September 25–29, 2014600± 4%45%39%8%8%
Target-Insyght September 22–24, 2014616± 4%44%45%—11%
Public Policy Polling September 18–19, 2014852± 3.4%46%44%—10%
We Ask America September 18–19, 20141,182± 3%43%43%4% [59] 10%
Rasmussen Reports September 17–18, 2014750± 4%47%41%3%9%
Denno Research September 11–13, 2014600± 4%43%40%—17%
Mitchell Research September 10, 2014829± 3.4%46%41%7% [61] 6%
Suffolk Archived September 24, 2015, at the Wayback Machine September 6–10, 2014500± 4.4%43%45%4% [59] 8%
Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014687± 3.7%43%42%6% [62] 9%
46%44%—10%
Glengariff Group Archived September 10, 2014, at the Wayback Machine September 3–5, 2014600± 4%44%42%3%12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 20142,897± 3%44%43%1%12%
Mitchell Research August 27, 20141,004± 3.09%47%46%—7%
EPIC-MRA August 22–25, 2014600± 4%43%45%—12%
Lake Research Partners August 6–11, 2014800± 3.5%46%38%—15%
Mitchell Research August 5, 2014626± 5%47%42%—11%
Rasmussen Reports July 28–29, 2014750± 4%45%42%5%8%
Marketing Resource Group July 26–30, 2014600± 4%45%44%—11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20143,812± 2.8%46%43%1%9%
Mitchell Research July 7–17, 2014600± 4%43%39%—17%
EPIC-MRA July 12–15, 2014600± 4%46%43%—11%
Denno Research July 9–11, 2014600± 4%43%35%—22%
NBC News/Marist July 7–10, 2014870± 3.3%46%44%1%9%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014578± 4.1%40%40%—20%
Mitchell Research June 6, 2014961± 3.16%46%41%—13%
Glengariff Group May 20–22, 2014600± 4.3%45%35%—20%
EPIC-MRA May 17–20, 2014600± 4%47%38%—15%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30, 2014502± 4.4%48%37%—15%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014875± 3.31%45%42%9%4%
Mitchell Research April 9, 20141,460± 2.56%49%37%—15%
Public Policy Polling April 3–6, 2014825± 3.4%43%39%—18%
Marketing Resource Group March 24–28, 2014600± 4.1%47%39%—14%
Denno Research Archived March 17, 2014, at the Wayback Machine March 9–10, 2014600± 4%42%39%—20%
Benenson Strategy Group March 4–7, 2014600± 4%45%42%—9%
Public Opinion Strategies March 2–4, 2014500± 4.4%45%36%—19%
Clarity Campaigns February 22–23, 2014859± 2.5540%47%—12%
Target Insyght February 18–20, 2014600± ?47%38%—15%
EPIC-MRA February 5–11, 2014600± 4%47%39%—14%
Harper Polling January 7–8, 20141,004± 3.09%47%35%—18%
Public Policy Polling December 5–8, 20131,034± 3%44%40%—16%
Denno Research Archived November 21, 2013, at the Wayback Machine November 12–14, 2013600± 4%45%31%—25%
Inside Michigan Politics October 29, 2013794± 4%36%34%—30%
MRG/Mitchell Research October 6–10, 2013600± 4%50%36%—14%
EPIC-MRA September 7–10, 2013600± 4%44%36%—20%
Denno Research Archived September 27, 2013, at the Wayback Machine July 23–24, 2013600± 4%43%37%—20%
Public Policy Polling May 30–June 2, 2013697± 3.7%38%42%—20%
EPIC-MRA May 11–15, 2013600± 4%39%39%—22%
EPIC-MRA April 13–16, 2013600± 4%38%39%—23%
Public Policy Polling March 2–4, 2013702± 3.7%36%40%—24%
Public Policy Polling December 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%39%44%—18%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Virg
Bernero (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 2–4, 2013702± 3.7%38%43%19%
Public Policy Polling December 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%38%49%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Gary
Peters (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 2–4, 2013702± 3.7%37%44%19%
Public Policy Polling December 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%39%47%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Bart
Stupak (D)		Undecided
EPIC-MRA April 13–16, 2013600± 4%39%38%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Gretchen
Whitmer (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%38%46%16%

Results

Michigan gubernatorial election, 2014 [63]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Rick Snyder (incumbent) 1,607,399 50.92% −7.19%
Democratic Mark Schauer 1,479,05746.86%+6.96%
Libertarian Mary Buzuma35,7231.13%+0.44%
Constitution Mark McFarlin19,3680.61%−0.04%
Green Paul Homeniuk14,9340.47%−0.17%
n/a Write-ins500.00%N/A
Total votes3,156,531 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Snyder won 9 of 14 congressional districts. [64]

DistrictSnyderSchauerRepresentative
1st 54.0%43.28% Dan Benishek
2nd 62.7%34.87% Bill Huizenga
3rd 60.6%37.18% Justin Amash
4th 55.1%42.05% John Moolenaar
5th 39.95%57.59% Dan Kildee
6th 55.91%41.21% Fred Upton
7th 54.37%43.29% Tim Walberg
8th 58.07%39.99% Mike Bishop
9th 47.19%50.68% Sander Levin
10th 59.08%38.42% Candice Miller
11th 62.31%36.02% David Trott
12th 41.27%56.53% Debbie Dingell
13th 20.26%78.15% John Conyers Jr.
14th 27.52%71.43% Brenda Lawrence

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics" . Retrieved October 6, 2019.
  2. 1 2 3 Oosting, Jonathan (January 30, 2014). "It's official: Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder launching re-election campaign with statewide tour". MLive Media Group . Retrieved January 30, 2014.
  3. 1 2 3 "2014 Official Michigan Primary Candidate Listing". Miboecfr.nictusa.com. July 31, 2014. Retrieved August 4, 2014.
  4. ↑ "Handicapping the 2013–2014 Governors Races: The Tossups". Governing. July 18, 2013. Archived from the original on August 5, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
  5. ↑ "Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder raises $5M in 2013 for re-election bid". Daily Tribune. January 28, 2014. Archived from the original on March 4, 2014. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
  6. ↑ "Which Governors Are Most Vulnerable in 2014?". Five Thirty Eight. April 8, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
  7. ↑ Woods, Ashley (November 8, 2013). "Michigan Governor Poll Shows Close Race Between Rick Snyder, Mark Schauer". The Huffington Post . Retrieved November 12, 2013.
  8. ↑ "Ratings". Archived from the original on March 5, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  9. ↑ Jacobson, Louis (July 18, 2013). "Handicapping the 2013–2014 Governors Races: The Tossups". Governing.com. Archived from the original on August 5, 2013. Retrieved July 25, 2013.
  10. ↑ "Ratings" . Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  11. ↑ "Ratings" . Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  12. ↑ Oosting, Jonathan (December 10, 2013). "Poll: Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, Democrat Mark Schauer in close race ahead of 2014". MLive Media Group . Retrieved December 29, 2013.
  13. ↑ Dickerson, Brian (August 28, 2014). "Brian Dickerson: Can Schauer avoid the Tomb of the Unknown Front-Runner?". Detroit Free Press . Retrieved August 28, 2014.
  14. ↑ "Rep. Mark Schauer Former Representative for Michigan's 7th District".
  15. ↑ "Old-style populism lives on in Michigan race". October 28, 2014.
  16. 1 2 "Snyder's approval rating gets boost from bankruptcy, Medicaid decisions". July 31, 2013. Archived from the original on September 27, 2013. Retrieved August 1, 2013.
  17. ↑ "Poll says Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder vulnerable in a Republican primary". September 3, 2013. Archived from the original on September 17, 2013. Retrieved September 3, 2013.
  18. ↑ "Snyder losing GOP support since Medicaid expansion". September 4, 2013. Archived from the original on September 17, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  19. ↑ "With Medicaid win, did Gov. Rick Snyder lose some Republicans? Tea party talks potential primary". September 5, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  20. ↑ "Lt. Gov. Brian Calley on tea party challenger: 'We have a competition for ideas' in Republican Party". August 26, 2013.
  21. ↑ "Snyder gets jump on 2014 election, launches TV, internet campaign ads". September 24, 2013.
  22. ↑ "Tea party leader Wes Nakagiri wants to replace Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Calley in 2014". August 26, 2013.
  23. ↑ "Tim Skubick: Tea Party could be 2014 election headache for Gov. Rick Snyder". August 27, 2013.
  24. ↑ "GOP poll says Livingston County's Nakagiri has shot at state's No. 2 post in 2014". September 5, 2013. Archived from the original on September 9, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  25. ↑ "Snyder gets top billing, but Calley in spotlight at Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference". September 21, 2013.
  26. ↑ Egan, Paul (August 23, 2014). "GOP chooses Calley over Nakagiri for lieutenant governor". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  27. 1 2 3 4 "Off the Record – November 29, 2013 – # 4323". Off the Record – WKAR-TV . November 29, 2013. Retrieved December 10, 2013.
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  29. ↑ "Former Michigan GOP Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop: 'I'm not running for governor'". June 24, 2013. Retrieved June 27, 2013.[ permanent dead link ]
  30. ↑ "Tea Party Looking For Its Gubernatorial Candidate". September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2013. (subscription required)
  31. ↑ "Tea Party Looking For Its Gubernatorial Candidate" (PDF). September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2013. (transcribed from original source)
  32. 1 2 "Official Election Results Primary Election August 5, 2014". Michigan Department of State. Archived from the original on August 15, 2014. Retrieved August 25, 2014.
  33. 1 2 3 "Tim Skubick: Mark Schauer's announcement for governor seals the Democratic field". May 28, 2013.
  34. ↑ "Democrat Mark Schauer to challenge Gov. Rick Snyder in 2014". May 28, 2013.
  35. ↑ "Mark Schauer to announce Oakland County Clerk Lisa Brown as running mate". April 2, 2014.[ permanent dead link ]
  36. ↑ "Michigan Democrats rallying behind Mark Schauer for governor, with John Austin offering support". May 8, 2013. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  37. ↑ Gray, Kathleen (March 10, 2013). "Democratic nomination for governor is now Mark Schauer's for the taking". Detroit Free Press .
  38. ↑ "King Leads Schauer for Democratic Nomination". May 29, 2013. Retrieved June 4, 2013.
  39. ↑ Wittrock, Angela (March 20, 2013). "Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero won't run for governor, Senate or Congress in 2014". mlive.com . Retrieved March 21, 2013.
  40. ↑ AlHajal, Khalil (June 25, 2013). "Tim Skubick: Mike Duggan's next step? Probably not a gubernatorial race". MLive.com. Retrieved January 8, 2014.
  41. ↑ Selweski, Chad (January 17, 2013). "Mark Hackel preparing for marriage, not a run for governor". The Macomb Daily . Archived from the original on May 30, 2015. Retrieved February 22, 2013.
  42. ↑ "?".
  43. ↑ Bell, Dawson (November 10, 2012). "Several Democrats may challenge Snyder in 2014". Detroit Free Press . Retrieved November 17, 2012.
  44. ↑ Skubick, Tim (April 15, 2013). "Tim Skubick: Bart Stupak's out... for now". Fox 2 News .
  45. ↑ "Gretchen Whitmer says she won't run for governor in 2014". Detroit Free Press . January 30, 2013.
  46. ↑ "Michigan Committee Statement of Organization". Michigan Secretary of State. May 17, 2014. Archived from the original on July 18, 2014.
  47. ↑ "Libertarians hold party convention in Howell". Lansing State Journal. May 17, 2014. Archived from the original on May 27, 2024. Retrieved July 16, 2014.
  48. 1 2 "2014 Unofficial Michigan General Candidate Listing". Miboecfr.nictusa.com. July 22, 2014. Retrieved August 4, 2014.
  49. ↑ "Third party gubernatorial candidate Robin Sanders focuses on public safety". Current State on WKAR-FM . June 17, 2013. Retrieved November 1, 2013.
  50. ↑ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  51. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  52. ↑ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  53. ↑ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  54. 1 2 3 Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  55. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  56. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 3%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 0%
  57. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 0%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  58. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 2%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  59. 1 2 3 Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  60. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) <1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  61. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 4%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  62. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 3%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  63. ↑ "2014 Michigan Official General Election Results - 11/04/2014".
  64. ↑ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
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