2008 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

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2008 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
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  Hillary Rodham Clinton-cropped.jpg Barack Obama Senate portrait crop.jpg NOTA Option Logo 3x4.svg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Barack Obama Uncommitted
Home state New York Illinois -
Delegate count34.529.50
Popular vote328,309-238,168
Percentage54.61%-39.61%
Michigan Democratic presidential primary election results by county margins, 2008.svg
MI President Democratic Primary 2008 Congressional Districts.svg
Clinton:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Uncommitted:     

The 2008 Michigan Democratic presidential primary took place January 15, 2008. Originally, the state had 156 delegates [1] up for grabs that were to be awarded in the following way: 83 delegates were to be awarded based on the winner in each of Michigan's 15 congressional districts while an additional 45 delegates were to be awarded to the statewide winner. Twenty-eight unpledged delegates, known as superdelegates, were initially able to cast their votes at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado.

Contents

However, the Democratic National Committee determined that the date of the Michigan Democratic Primary violated the party rules and ultimately decided to sanction the state, stripping all 156 delegates and refusing to seat them at the convention. Despite this, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled that the primary could go ahead as scheduled. [2] The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee later met on May 31, 2008, and agreed to seat all of Michigan's delegates with each delegate receiving half of a vote. [3] As a result of this compromise, Michigan had 78 votes at the convention. On August 24, the delegates had full voting rights restored. [4]

Pre-primary events and polling

The Michigan Legislature passed a bill to move the date of the state's presidential primaries to January 15 in an effort to increase the state's influence in the presidential candidate nominating process. They argued that the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary unfairly dominated the selection process. [5] Just as in Florida, the move-up bill originated in a Republican-controlled State Senate and passed by a 21–17 straight party-line vote with every Democrat casting a "no" vote. [6]

However, Democratic National Committeewoman Debbie Dingell was a leader in moving Michigan's primary date to January 15. She later explained that she believed Michigan's rebellion against the DNC rules would spark a national campaign to change the primary process so that Iowa and New Hampshire would not always be first. She also claimed that if Michigan had conformed to DNC rules and held its primary in February, the Democratic candidates would have virtually skipped Michigan anyway in favor of other crucial states. [7]

Federal Democratic Party rules prohibit any state, except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina from holding its primary before February 5, or Super Tuesday. On December 1, 2007, the Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan and Florida of all of their delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

The decision of the DNC diminished the significance of the Michigan Democratic Primary. [1] On October 9, 2007, following Michigan's breach of DNC rules, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and John Edwards withdrew from the Michigan Democratic Primary ballot. [8] Dennis Kucinich unsuccessfully sought to remove his name from the ballot. [9] Hillary Clinton and Christopher Dodd decided to remain on the ballot. [10] Although Clinton said she would honor a pledge that she and the other Democratic candidates had earlier made to refrain from campaigning or participating in Michigan, [10] Clinton and Dodd drew sharp criticism from Biden, who stated that the two candidates had "chosen to hedge their bets" and had "abandoned Democrats in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina" by staying on the ballot. [10] [11]

On December 10, 2007, the Michigan Democratic Party issued a press release stating that the primary would be held on January 15, 2008, and that the Democratic ballot would contain only six choices: Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Uncommitted, and Write-in. [12] The press release also urged supporters of Biden, Edwards, Obama and Richardson to vote "uncommitted" instead of writing in their preferred candidates' names. [12] In order for any such write-in votes to be counted, those candidates would have needed to file additional paperwork by January 4, 2008. None did so. [13]

Chris Dodd dropped out of the race after he placed seventh in the Iowa Democratic Caucus. [14] As of January 3, 2008, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel were the only Democratic candidates who planned to campaign in the state. According to a Kucinich volunteer, the campaign changed its mind about campaigning in Michigan so that it could use the lack of activity to fill a vacuum in Kucinich's support. Gravel had already made a number of campaign stops in Michigan before January 3. [9]

Polling

Pre-primary opinion polling statistics throughout the campaign season. 2008 Demo Michigan.png
Pre-primary opinion polling statistics throughout the campaign season.

The American Research Group conducted a survey, asking 600 likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan from January 12 to January 14, 2008. The results were as follows: [15]

CandidateDemocratic Preference %
Hillary Clinton 56%
Uncommitted31%
Undecided9%
Dennis Kucinich 3%
Mike Gravel 1%

Hillary Clinton easily beat the "uncommitted" votes during pre-primary polls. However, the Detroit Free Press questioned whether the results of the Michigan Democratic Primary demonstrated anything. None of the major candidates in the Democratic Party campaigned at all in Michigan, and all had pledged not to participate in the primary. The Detroit Free Press was also questioning whether Clinton's polling results would have held up during the actual primary. J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Company, director of The Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll, said, "In my mind, if [Clinton] does not get a majority, then more voters were against her than with her." According to the poll, if the other major contenders were to appear in the ballot, Clinton would receive 46% of the vote, Obama would receive 23%, and Edwards would get 13% while 42% of the uncommitted vote would go to Obama. [16]

Results


[17]

2008 Michigan Democratic presidential primary results
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageStatewide delegatesNational delegates
Democratic Hillary Clinton 328,30954.61%034.5
Democratic Barack Obama 00.00%029.5
Democratic Uncommitted238,16839.61%00
Democratic Dennis Kucinich 21,7153.61%00
Democratic Write-ins 6,8211.13%00
Democratic Christopher Dodd 3,8450.64%00
Democratic Mike Gravel 2,3610.39%00
Totals601,219100.00%064
Voter turnout %—

Exit polls

A question in the Michigan exit poll conducted by the news media asked the respondents how they would have voted if the names of Barack Obama, John Edwards and Bill Richardson were added to the ballot. The results obtained for that question are tabulated below. The first column of the table shows that according to the exit poll, Clinton, Obama, Edwards and Richardson would have received 46%, 35%, 12% and 1% respectively with such an expanded ballot. Except for the "% Total" column, the numbers in this table should be read horizontally. For example, the row for Barack Obama tells us that of the 35% he polled in the exit poll, 18% would have come from Clinton voters, 1% from Gravel voters, 2% from Kucinich voters and 79% from uncommitted voters.

Michigan Democratic Primary Exit Poll [18]
Question: If these had been the candidates on the ballot today, for whom would you have voted in the Democratic presidential primary?
Candidate% TotalClintonDoddGravelKucinichUncommitted
Hillary Rodham Clinton 4697-003
John Edwards 12302-1157
Dennis Kucinich 2-----
Barack Obama 351801279
Bill Richardson 1-----

Post-primary delegate allocation

Proposed revote

Shortly after the February 5, 2008 Super Tuesday contests, the media and some politicians, including U.S. Senator Tom Harkin (D-Iowa), [19] suggested a revote in Florida and Michigan.

On March 7, Newsweek reported: "A plan to raise soft money to pay for a second Florida Democratic Primary—this one by mail—seems close to approval, according to Sen. Bill Nelson." [20] A grassroots movement to raise this money began in early February with revote08.com, with which a group of South Floridians hoped to raise the money for all mail-in revotes in Michigan and Florida.

Michigan Democratic Party officials intended to restrict any revote to Democrats, and in particular to prevent those who had already voted in the Michigan Republican Primary from participating. However, since Michigan does not have party registration, it was not clear how this could have been accomplished. [21] A date of June 3 had been suggested for the revote. [22] However, on April 4, 2008, the Michigan Democratic Party decided it was not practical to stage a new party primary or caucus. [23]

Clinton's position

On September 1, 2007, Hillary Clinton signed a pledge agreeing not to "campaign or participate" in Michigan. [24] On January 25, 2008, Clinton advocated seating Michigan and Florida's delegates at the Democratic National Convention [25] [26] despite the DNC ban, stating:

I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan. [27]

In response, David Plouffe of the Obama campaign released the following statement:

When Senator Clinton was campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, she made it clear that states like Michigan and Florida that wouldn't produce any delegates, "don't count for anything." Now that Senator Clinton's worried about losing the first Southern primary, she's using Florida and Michigan for her own political gain by trying to assign meaning to a contest that awards zero delegates and where no campaigning has occurred. [28]

On March 13, 2008, NPR interviewed Clinton, reporting:

Hillary Clinton says the results [in Michigan] should count, even if Barack Obama's name did not appear on the ballot. "That was his choice...There was no rule or requirement that he take his name off the ballot. His supporters ran a very aggressive campaign to try to get people to vote uncommitted."...Clinton [says] that the Michigan and Florida pledged delegates should count because both are seen as key battleground states in the general election. But if the national party does not agree, she says, the states should re-do the primaries. [29]

When pressed by NPR, Clinton said, "We all had a choice as to whether or not to participate in what was going to be a primary, and most people took their name off the ballot but I didn't." [29] Critics have labeled Clinton's actions as dishonest, and charged her with trying to retroactively change the rules for her own benefit. [30] [31] [32]

DNC decision

In late May, attention focused on the upcoming May 31, 2008, meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). The RBC would choose whether to assign seats to Florida and Michigan delegates for the Democratic National Convention. (The convention itself could change the seating.) During the period before the RBC meeting, 22 uncommitted delegates pledged their support to Obama should they be seated at the convention. [33]

On May 31, 2008, the RBC voted 19-8 to seat all of Michigan's delegates with each receiving half a vote. The resolution allocated 69 pledged delegates for Hillary Clinton and 59 pledged delegates for Barack Obama, resulting in these pledged delegate votes: [34]

The decision was a modification of the Michigan Leadership Plan, a proposal by the Michigan Democratic Party [35] submitted as a compromise between the positions of the Clinton Campaign (allocating delegates based on the January 15 primary, with 73 pledged delegates for Clinton, and 55 pledged delegates as uncommitted [36] ) and the Obama Campaign (allocating the delegates evenly between Clinton and Obama, [37] which with a full delegation would result in 64 pledged delegates for Clinton and 64 pledged delegates for Obama).

Endorsements

Despite the debacle surrounding the Michigan Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton picked up two big endorsements in the state from Governor Jennifer Granholm and U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow.

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 "Democrats punish Michigan for early primary; Leaders vote to strip state of all delegates for violating party rules". Decision '08. NBC News. Associated Press. December 1, 2007. Archived from the original on March 7, 2015. Retrieved January 15, 2008.
  2. ↑ "Michigan Supreme Court Lets Presidential Primary Go Forward". WSBT-TV. Associated Press. November 27, 2007. Archived from the original on January 7, 2008. Retrieved January 15, 2008.
  3. ↑ Ohlemacher, Stephen (December 2, 2007). "Democrats Strip Michigan of Delegates". WKRN-TV. Associated Press. Archived from the original on December 3, 2007. Retrieved January 14, 2008.
  4. ↑ Sinderbrand, Rebecca (August 24, 2008). "Full voting rights restored to Florida and Michigan". CNN. Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved August 24, 2008.
  5. ↑ Mooney, Alexander; Steinhauser, Paul; Hoye, Matt (October 9, 2007). "Democrats withdraw from Michigan 'beauty contest'". CNN . Retrieved January 16, 2008.
  6. ↑ Barrett, Wayne (April 1, 2008). "Could the Republicans Pick the Democratic Nominee? — The Untold Story of How the GOP Rigged Florida and Michigan". The Huffington Post . Archived from the original on June 7, 2008. Retrieved June 3, 2008– via Common Dreams.
  7. ↑ Christoff, Chris (January 16, 2008). "Angry voters could mean trouble for Dems". Detroit Free Press . Archived from the original on February 22, 2008. Retrieved January 16, 2008.
  8. ↑ "Four Candidates Withdraw from Michigan Primary Ballot" (Press release). Michigan Department of State. October 9, 2007. Archived from the original on January 16, 2008. Retrieved January 10, 2008.
  9. 1 2 Gorchow, Zachary (January 3, 2008). "Kucinich says he'll come to Michigan after all". Detroit Free Press . Archived from the original on November 9, 2013. Retrieved January 14, 2008.
  10. 1 2 3 Barks Hoffman, Kathy (October 10, 2007). "Clinton In, 5 Dems Out of Mich. Primary". Guardian Unlimited . London. Associated Press . Retrieved January 14, 2008.[ dead link ]
  11. ↑ "Biden Campaign Slams Clinton, Dodd for Abandoning Campaign Pledge" (Press release). Biden for President, Inc. October 9, 2007. Archived from the original on January 15, 2008. Retrieved January 14, 2008.
  12. 1 2 "MDP Releases Voter Guide To Help Voters Understand Presidential Primary" (Press release). Michigan Democratic Party. December 10, 2007. Archived from the original on January 15, 2008. Retrieved January 10, 2008.
  13. ↑ Barks Hoffman, Kathy (January 5, 2008). "No Democratic candidates file as write-in candidates". Traverse City Record-Eagle . Associated Press. Archived from the original on December 12, 2020. Retrieved December 11, 2020.
  14. ↑ Rhee, Foon (January 3, 2008). "Dodd withdraws from Democratic field". The Boston Globe . Archived from the original on May 2, 2010. Retrieved January 14, 2008.
  15. ↑ "Michigan Democratic Presidential Preference". American Research Group . American Research Group. January 17, 2008. Retrieved January 16, 2008.
  16. ↑ Schmitt, Ben; Gray, Kathleen (January 12, 2008). "Among Democrats, Clinton leads over 'uncommitted'". Detroit Free Press . Archived from the original on February 22, 2008. Retrieved January 18, 2008.
  17. ↑ "Michigan Primary Election Results - Election Guide 2008 - Results - The New York Times". archive.nytimes.com. Retrieved February 28, 2024.
  18. ↑ "Michigan Exit Poll - Democrats". MSNBC and other news outlets. May 11, 2008. Retrieved May 11, 2008.
  19. ↑ Deeth, John (February 15, 2008). "Harkin Calls For Florida, Michigan Revote". The Iowa Independent . Archived from the original on September 8, 2012. Retrieved April 7, 2008.
  20. ↑ Walls, Seth Colter (March 7, 2008). "Deja Vu". Newsweek . Archived from the original on May 31, 2008. Retrieved March 7, 2008.
  21. ↑ "Dem panel to pitch mail-in vote". The Detroit News . March 11, 2008. Retrieved March 13, 2008.[ dead link ]
  22. ↑ Farrington, Brendan (March 14, 2008). "June 3 is target for Mich. do-over vote". Newsweek . Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 10, 2008. Retrieved March 14, 2008.
  23. ↑ Horrigan, Marie (April 4, 2008). "New Michigan Primary is Off the Table". CQ Politics . Archived from the original on April 8, 2008. Retrieved April 7, 2008.
  24. ↑ Patti Solis Doyle (September 1, 2007). "Clinton Campaign Statement on the Four State Pledge". Archived from the original on May 15, 2008. Retrieved May 16, 2008.
  25. ↑ Wulfhorst, Ellen (January 25, 2008). "Clinton roils vote dispute in presidential race". Reuters . Archived from the original on May 18, 2008. Retrieved April 7, 2008.
  26. ↑ Gray, Kathleen (January 25, 2008). "Clinton pledges to seat Mich. delegates despite primary flap". Detroit Free Press . Archived from the original on February 5, 2008. Retrieved April 7, 2008.
  27. ↑ "Clinton wants Florida, Michigan delegates to Democratic convention reinstated". International Herald Tribune . Associated Press. January 25, 2008. Archived from the original on May 4, 2008. Retrieved April 7, 2008.
  28. ↑ Ambinder, Marc (January 25, 2008). "Clinton, Obama Spar Over Florida Delegates". The Atlantic . Archived from the original on March 30, 2008. Retrieved April 7, 2008.
  29. 1 2 Hillary Clinton, Steve Inskeep (March 13, 2008). Clinton Says Michigan and Florida Should Count (radio interview). National Public Radio. Event occurs at 01:34. Retrieved June 2, 2008. We all had a choice as to whether or not to participate in, what was going to be a primary, and most people took their names off the ballot, but I didn't.
  30. ↑ Hillary Clinton Trying to Steal Nomination?
  31. ↑ "Clinton: Rewrite the Rules for Me". Archived from the original on May 3, 2008. Retrieved October 27, 2017.
  32. ↑ Any Means Necessary
  33. ↑ "The Michigan 36 - Obama gets 22". Democratic Convention Watch. May 27, 2008. Retrieved June 4, 2008.
  34. ↑ Parnes, Amie; Zenilman, Avi (May 31, 2008). "DNC panel agrees to seat Mich., Fla". Politico . Retrieved June 4, 2008.
  35. ↑ Levin, Carl; Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick; Ron Gettelfinger; Deborah Dingell (April 29, 2008). "(Letter from Michigan Democrats to State Party on Seating Delegates)". Time. Retrieved June 2, 2008. As a result, we recommend that the Michigan Democratic Party request the DNC to seat Michigan's delegates, and that the pledged delegates be apportioned 69 to Senator Clinton and 59 to Senator Obama. That approach splits the difference between the 73/55 position of the Clinton campaign and the 64/64 position of the Obama campaign, based on our belief that both sides have fair arguments about the Michigan primary.[ dead link ]
  36. ↑ "Michigan Democratic Party releases 2008 National Convention pledged delegate, alternate, and committee allocation" (Press release). Michigan Democratic Party. February 8, 2008. Archived from the original on May 29, 2008. Retrieved June 2, 2008. Overall, Clinton will have 73 pledged delegates, 16 pledged alternates, and 10 committee members, and there will be 55 uncommitted delegates, 5 uncommitted alternates, and 8 uncommitted committee members.
  37. ↑ Plouffe, David (April 4, 2008). "(Obama Campaign Press Release from April 4, 2008)". Obama for America. Archived from the original on April 8, 2008. Retrieved June 2, 2008. A 50/50 split of the delegates is an eminently fair solution, especially since originally Senator Clinton herself said the Michigan primary wouldn't 'count for anything.'
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