2020 United States Senate election in Michigan

Last updated

2020 United States Senate election in Michigan
Flag of Michigan.svg
  2014 November 3, 2020 2026  
  Gary Peters official photo 115th congress.jpg Donald Trump, with John Edward James, Oval Office (September 2018) (cropped).jpg
Nominee Gary Peters John James
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,734,5682,642,233
Percentage49.90%48.22%

2020 United States Senate election in Michigan results map by county.svg
MI Senate 2020 Congressional Districts.svg
MI Senate 2020 Municipalities.svg
MI Senate 2020 Precinct Results.svg
Peters:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
James:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:      40–50%     50%     No data

U.S. senator before election

Gary Peters
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Gary Peters
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

This race was one of two-Democratic held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state Donald Trump won in 2016. [1] The primary was held on August 4. [2]

The filing deadline for candidates to run in the primary was April 21 [3] but was extended to May 8 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [4] The election was considered a potential upset pickup by the Republicans due to the state's demographic trends, Donald Trump's upset win in 2016, and Republican candidate John James's outperformance of polling expectations despite losing the state's Senate election in 2018. However, most analysts still believed Gary Peters to be the more likely winner.

Peters won re-election to a second term, though by a much closer margin than expected. [5] James, who outperformed Trump on the same ballot, initially refused to concede, [6] baselessly claiming in a statement published to his campaign website two days after the election that he had been "cheated" out of winning the election. The statement alleged that there were "deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat.". [7] On November 24, James conceded the race exactly three weeks after election day. [8] With a margin of 1.68%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2020 Senate election cycle, behind only the regularly-scheduled election in Georgia.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Democratic primary results

Democratic primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gary Peters (incumbent) 1,180,780 100.0%
Total votes1,180,780 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

John James

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
John
James
Bill
Schuette
Undecided
June 6, 2019Schuette announces that he will not run by endorsing James
Target Insyght [45] April 22–25, 2019296 (LV) [b] 59%15%26%

Results

Republican primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John James 1,005,315 100.0%
Total votes1,005,315 100.0%

Other candidates

Communist Party

Withdrawn

  • Frank Seldon Cupps (as a write-in candidate) [46] [36] [47]

Green Party

Nominee

  • Marcia Squier (2018 Green Party nominee for US Senate) [48]

Natural Law Party

Nominee

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Nominee

  • Valerie L. Willis (switched from Republican candidacy after being disqualified for the Republican primary) [37]

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [50] Lean DOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [51] Lean DOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [52] Lean DNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [53] Lean DOctober 30, 2020
Politico [54] Lean DNovember 2, 2020
RCP [55] TossupOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [56] Likely DNovember 3, 2020
538 [57] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
Economist [58] Likely DNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Gary Peters (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

Organizations

Newspapers

Labor unions

Newspapers

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

John James vs. Gary Peters
Source of poll aggregationDates administeredDates updated Gary Peters John James Other/Undecided [c] Margin
270 To Win [98] November 2, 2020November 3, 202049.8%42.2%8.0%
Real Clear Politics [99] November 1, 2020November 3, 202049.8%44.4%5.8%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Gary
Peters (D)
John
James (R)
Other/
Undecided
Research Co. [100] October 31 – November 1, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%52%37%12% [d]
Change Research/CNBC [101] October 29 – November 1, 2020383 (LV)± 5.01%51%46%3% [e]
Swayable [102] October 27 – November 1, 2020393 (LV)± 6.6%54%46%
Ipsos/Reuters [103] October 27 – November 1, 2020654 (LV)± 4.4%51%44%5% [f]
Ipsos/Reuters [103] October 27 – November 1, 2020654 (LV)± 4.4%51%44%5% [g]
Morning Consult [104] October 22–31, 20201,736 (LV)± 2.0%49%43%
Emerson College [105] October 29–30, 2020700 (LV)± 3.4%52% [h] 46%2% [i]
Public Policy Polling (D) [106] [A] October 29–30, 2020745 (V)± 3.6%54%44%2% [j]
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart [107] October 25–30, 2020993 (LV)54%43%2% [k]
CNN/SSRS [108] October 23–30, 2020907 (LV)± 3.8%52%40%7% [l]
Mitchell Research (R) [109] October 29, 2020817 (LV)± 3.43%50%45%5% [m]
RMG Research [110] October 27–29, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50% [n] 41%9% [o]
52% [p] 39%9% [q]
48% [r] 42%9% [s]
EPIC-MRA [111] October 25–28, 2020600 (LV)± 4%47%42%11% [t]
Kiaer Research [112] October 21–28, 2020669 (LV)± 5.6%51%38%11% [u]
Mitchell Research (R) [113] October 25–27, 2020759 (LV)± 3.56%52%43%3% [v]
Tarrance Group (R) [114] [B] October 24–26, 2020 [w] – (V) [x] ± 4.3%48%46%1% [y]
Swayable [115] October 23–26, 2020365 (LV)± 6.9%58%42%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [116] October 23–26, 2020856 (LV)± 3.8%49%41%8% [z]
Ipsos/Reuters [117] October 20–26, 2020652 (LV)± 4.4%50%44%6% [aa]
Glengariff Group [118] October 23–25, 2020600 (LV)± 4%48%39%9% [ab]
ABC/Washington Post [119] October 20–25, 2020789 (LV)± 4%52%46%2% [ac]
Gravis Marketing [120] October 24, 2020679 (LV)± 3.8%52%41%7% [ad]
Public Policy Polling (D) [121] [C] October 21–22, 2020804 (V)52%43%6% [ae]
Citizen Data [122] October 17–20, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%46%42%12% [af]
FOX News [123] October 17–20, 20201,032 (LV)± 3%49%41%9% [ag]
Reuters/Ipsos [124] October 14–20, 2020686 (LV)± 4.3%50%45%5% [ah]
Morning Consult [104] October 11–20, 20201,717 (LV)± 2.4%48%42%
Change Research/CNBC [125] October 16–19, 2020718 (LV) [ai] 50%45%
EPIC-MRA [126] October 15–19, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%39%16% [aj]
Mitchell Research (R) [127] October 18, 2020900 (LV)± 3.27%49%43%8% [ak]
Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PAC (Hyperpartisan) [128] [129] [96] [130] [D] October 15–18, 20201,034 (LV)± 2.97%48%50%3% [al]
Data For Progress [131] October 15–18, 2020830 (LV)± 3.4%48%43%9% [am]
HarrisX/The Hill [132] October 12–15, 20201,289 (LV)50% [an] 43%
Trafalgar Group (R) [133] October 11–15, 20201,018 (LV)± 2.99%47%48%5% [ao]
Reuters/Ipsos [134] October 7–13, 2020620 (LV)± 4.5%52%44%4% [ap]
EPIC-MRA [135] October 8–12, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%39%16% [aq]
Siena College/NYT Upshot [136] October 6–11, 2020614 (LV)± 4.6%43%42%15% [ar]
Morning Consult [137] October 2–11, 20201,710 (LV)± 2.4%49%40%
YouGov/CBS [138] October 6–9, 20201,181 (LV)± 3.3%47%44%9% [as]
Baldwin Wallace University [139] September 30 – October 8, 20201,134 (LV)± 3.2%48%42%10% [at]
Emerson College [140] October 6–7, 2020716 (LV)± 3.6%51%41%8% [au]
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum [141] [E] October 3–6, 2020800 (LV)± 3.46%49% [av] 42%8% [aw]
Reuters/Ipsos [142] September 29 – October 6, 2020709 (LV)± 4.2%50%43%7% [ax]
Tarrance Group (R) [143] [B] October 3–5, 2020605 (RV)± 4.1%48%46%
Change Research/CNBC [144] October 2–4, 2020676 (LV)51%43%6% [ay]
Glengariff Group [145] September 30 – October 3, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%40%16% [az]
Public Policy Polling (D) [146] [F] September 30 – October 1, 2020746 (V)48%41%10% [ba]
Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PAC (Hyperpartisan) [147] [148] [G] September 26–28, 20201,042 (LV)± 2.95%48%47%5% [bb]
Trafalgar Group (R) [149] September 23–25, 20201,047 (LV)± 2.95%47%47%6% [bc]
Marist College/NBC [150] September 19–23, 2020799 (LV)± 4.3%49%44%7% [bd]
Baldwin Wallace University [151] September 9–22, 20201,001 (LV)± 3.6%46%41%13%
Change Research/CNBC [152] September 18–20, 2020568 (LV)50%44%5% [be]
Morning Consult [153] September 11–20, 20201,376 (LV)± (2% – 7%)47% [bf] 40%
Hart Research Associates (D) [154] [H] September 17–19, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%50%42%
Data for Progress (D) [155] September 14–19, 2020455 (LV)± 4.6%47%42%12% [bg]
Marketing Resource Group (R) [156] September 14–19, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%42%40%20% [bh]
Morning Consult [157] September 8–17, 20201,451 (LV) [bi] ± (2% – 4%)48%40%
Ipsos/Reuters [158] September 11–16, 2020637 (LV)± 4.4%49%43%7% [bj]
EPIC-MRA [159] September 10–15, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%41%14% [bk]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [160] September 12–14, 2020930 (LV)± 3.21%51%35%13% [bl]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group [161] [I] August 28 – September 8, 20201,600 (LV)± 2.5%45%41%14% [bm]
Change Research/CNBC [162] September 4–6, 2020876 (LV)± 3.2%50%46%5% [bn]
Rasmussen Reports [163] September 2–3, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%40%13% [bo]
Glengariff Group/Detroit News [164] September 1–3, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%44%41%14% [bp]
Tarrance Group (R) [165] [B] September 1–3, 2020569 (RV)47%46%7% [bq]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [166] August 30 – September 3, 2020967 (LV)± 3.2%50%38%12% [br]
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum [167] [E] August 30 – September 2, 2020802 (LV)± 3.46%49% [bs] 42%8% [bt]
Public Policy Polling (D) [168] [F] August 28–29, 2020897 (V)± 3.2%47%39%14% [bu]
Change Research/CNBC [169] August 21–23, 2020809 (LV)± 3.4%50%45%6% [bv]
Trafalgar Group (R) [170] August 14–23, 20201,048 (LV)± 3.0%47%48%5% [bw]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [171] August 16–18, 2020812 (LV)± 3.4%48%39%13% [bx]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [172] [J] (Hyperpartisan) [173] August 11–15, 2020600 (LV)53%39%8% [by]
Tarrance Group (R) [165] [B] August 10–13, 2020602 (RV)± 4.1%49%44%7%
Change Research/CNBC [174] August 7–9, 2020413 (LV)± 4.6%48%45%7% [bz]
EPIC-MRA [175] July 25–30, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%50%40%10% [ca]
Public Policy Polling (D) [176] [F] July 28–29, 2020876 (V)± 3.2%47%39%13% [cb]
Change Research/CNBC [177] July 24–26, 2020413 (LV)± 4.8%48%44%8%
Morning Consult [178] July 17–26, 20201,320 (LV)± 3.0%49%35%16%
CNN/SSRS [179] July 18–24, 2020927 (RV)± 3.8%54%38%8% [cc]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [180] July 19–23, 2020811 (LV)± 3.2%52%35%13% [cd]
Gravis Marketing [181] [182] July 22, 2020754 (LV)± 3.6%49%39%11% [ce]
Marketing Resource Group (R) [183] July 19–21, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%41%34%26% [cf]
FOX News [184] July 18–20, 2020756 (RV)± 3.5%48%38%15% [cg]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [185] [186] July 13–16, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%51%40%9% [ch]
Spry Strategies (R) [187] [K] July 11–16, 2020600 (LV)± 3.7%47%37%15% [ci]
Change Research/CNBC [188] July 10–12, 2020824 (LV)± 2.8%50%43%6% [cj]
Public Policy Polling (D) [189] [L] July 9–10, 20201,041 (V)± 3.2%49%42%9%
Change Research/CNBC [190] June 26–28, 2020699 (LV) [ck] ± 3.9%49%42%9% [cl]
Public Policy Polling (D) [191] [F] June 26–27, 20201,237 (V)± 3.2%47%39%14% [cm]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [192] [193] [102] [194] [195] [196] [197] [198] [199] [98] [100] June 17–20, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%51%38%12% [cn]
NYT Upshot/Siena College [200] June 8–17, 2020610 (RV)± 4.3%41%31%29% [co]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [201] June 14–16, 2020826 (LV)± 3.4%50%32%18% [cp]
Marketing Resource Group (R) [202] June 12–15, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%36%30%33% [cq]
American Greatness/TIPP (R) [203] June 9–12, 2020907 (RV)± 3.3%47%35%17% [cr]
Kiaer Research [204] May 31 – June 7, 2020543 (LV)± 6.4%48%32%20% [cs]
EPIC-MRA [205] May 30 – June 3, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%51%36%13% [ct]
Public Policy Polling (D) [206] [F] May 29–30, 20201,582 (V)± 2.5%48%39%13% [cu]
Change Research/Crooked Media [207] May 11–17, 20203,070 (LV)± 2.6%48%43%9%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [208] [209] [109] [210] [211] [212] [213] [214] [215] [99] [101] [96] May 1–5, 2020600 (LV)± 3.0%48%36%17% [cv]
Public Policy Polling (D) [216] April 28–29, 20201,270 (V)± 3.2%46%37%17%
FOX News [217] April 18–21, 2020801 (RV)± 3.5%46%36%13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [218] [219] April 9–18, 2020600 (LV)± 3.0%46%37%17%
Public Policy Polling (D) [220] March 31 – April 1, 20201,019 (V)± 3.1%45%38%17%
Spry Strategies (R) [221] March 30 – April 1, 2020602 (LV)± 4.0%42%40%18%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [222] [223] [117] [224] [225] [226] [227] [228] [229] [101] [103] [98] March 12–21, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%13%
Marketing Resource Group (R) [230] March 16–20, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%42%35%17% [cw]
Firehouse/0ptimus [231] March 5–7, 2020550 (LV)± 5.0%40%41%11%
Quinnipiac University [232] February 12–18, 2020845 (RV)± 3.4%45%39%15%
Baldwin Wallace University [233] January 8–20, 20201,023 (RV)± 3.1%42%32%26%
Glengariff Group [234] January 3–7, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%44%40%16%
Emerson College [235] October 31 – November 3, 20191,051 (RV)± 3.5%46%40%14%
Hodas & Associates Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [236] [237] October 10–16, 2019 [cx] 600 (LV)± 3.0%48%35%17%
Marketing Resource Group (R) [238] October 7–10, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%43%40%17%
Target-Insyght/MIRS News [239] September 24–26, 2019804 (LV)± 3.5%53%37%10%
Denno Research/Vanguard PA/PSC (D) [240] September 21–24, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%40%39%21%
Target Insyght [45] April 22–25, 2019800 (LV)± 3.5%50%36%14%
Emerson College [241] March 7–10, 2019743 (LV)± 3.5%44%43%14%
Hypothetical polling

The following poll assumes neither Republican candidate would withdraw after their primary. with Bob Carr and John James

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Gary
Peters (D)
Bob
Carr (R)
John
James (R)
Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes [242] March 17–25, 2020822 (RV)± 3.8%40%6% [cy] 27%28%

with Bill Schuette

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Gary
Peters (D)
Bill
Schuette (R)
Undecided
Target Insyght [45] April 22–25, 2019800 (LV)± 3.5%51%32%17%

with Gary Peters and Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Gary
Peters (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Denno Research/Vanguard PA (D) [243] May 8–10, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%42%36%21%

with Gary Peters and Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Gary
Peters (D)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
MRG [244] Jun 12–15, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%19.2%30.3% [cz] 50.5%

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
Glengariff Group/Detroit News [245] October 23–25, 2020600 (LV)± 4%47%41%
Ipsos/Reuters [158] September 11–16, 2020637 (LV)± 4.4%47%43%2% [da] 8% [db]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [172] [M] August 11–15, 2020600 (LV)48%39%13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [185] [186] July 13–16, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%49%38%13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) [246] June 17–20, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%50%34%15%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [208] May 1–5, 2020600 (LV)± 3.0%43%38%15% [dc]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [247] April 9–18, 2020600 (LV)± 3.0%40%44%16% [dd]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [248] March 12–21, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%46%42%12% [de]

Results

Polls indicated that the race would be close, with Peters leading in most polls. In 2018, Michigan voters approved "no reason required" absentee balloting. [249] The COVID-19 pandemic led to a record number of absentee voters. [250] Michigan law at that time did not allow for early tabulating of absentee ballots, [251] [252] so the absentee ballots were tabulated after completing the tabulating of ballots from polling places. This created a "mirage" effect because more Republicans voted on election day, and more Democrats voted by absentee ballot. [253] James was ahead when the counting of election day ballots was completed. When the absentee ballots were tabulated, and with 98% of the votes counted, Peters was declared the winner by a tight margin of one percentage point after a day of waiting. [254] When the results were certified on November 23, Peters' margin of victory was 1.68%. [255]

Peters was able to win re-election by running up a big margin in Wayne County, home of Detroit, winning over 67% of the vote there. He also managed to improve his performance in the reliably Democratic Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor, improving on his 2014 election by almost three percentage points. He also came within just 1,139 votes of winning Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, having lost the county by over eight percentage points six years prior. Peters was sworn in for his second term on January 3, 2021. His term will expire on January 3, 2027.

African-Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Peters winning the election. [256]

James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.

2020 US Senate election in Michigan by swing.svg
2020 US Senate election in Michigan by trend.svg
2020 United States Senate election in Michigan [257]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Gary Peters (incumbent) 2,734,568 49.90% −4.71%
Republican John James 2,642,23348.22%+6.89%
Constitution Valerie Willis50,5970.92%−0.28%
Green Marcia Squier39,2170.72%−0.12%
Natural Law Doug Dern13,0930.24%N/A
Write-in 120.00%±0.00%
Total votes5,479,720 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county

By county
County [258] Gary Peters
Democratic
John James
Republican
Valerie Willis
Constitution
Marcia Squier
Green
Doug Dern
Natural Law
Write-in MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
Alcona 2,28432.644,61465.94500.72340.49150.2100.00-2,330-33.306,997
Alger 2,08941.112,91957.44360.71310.6170.1400.00-830-16.335,082
Allegan 22,93934.5242,36263.765940.894160.631320.2020.00-19,423-29.2366,445
Alpena 6,27337.4010,25761.161190.71820.49400.2400.00-3,984-23.7616,771
Antrim 5,75836.279,92462.51820.52860.54270.1700.00-4,166-26.2415,877
Arenac 3,08535.415,44362.481031.18480.55330.3800.00-2,358-27.078,712
Baraga 1,52838.202,40960.22310.77230.5890.2300.00-881-22.024,000
Barry 11,36931.9623,49966.063661.032410.68950.2700.00-12,130-34.1035,570
Bay 27,07245.5231,31452.655610.943820.641430.2400.00-4,242-7.1359,472
Benzie 5,32843.786,69254.99580.48660.54250.2100.00-1,364-11.2112,169
Berrien 34,77742.8744,80155.237640.945680.702090.2600.00-10,024-12.3681,119
Branch 6,11930.1713,68267.472781.371320.65690.3400.00-7,563-37.2920,280
Calhoun 28,14542.9335,78654.598671.325470.832110.3200.00-7,641-11.6665,556
Cass 8,56533.1316,81465.042530.981610.62580.2200.00-8,249-31.9125,851
Charlevoix 6,66439.4610,03059.39830.49820.49290.1700.00-3,366-19.9316,888
Cheboygan 5,47534.8010,02663.721210.77820.52300.1900.00-4,551-28.9215,734
Chippewa 6,72938.4810,49760.021280.731020.58330.1900.00-3,768-21.5417,489
Clare 5,37233.3510,46864.991250.78960.60470.2900.00-5,096-31.6416,108
Clinton 21,49045.3225,26953.293040.642660.56860.1800.00-3,779-7.9747,415
Crawford 2,65334.105,02164.54520.67340.44200.2600.00-2,368-30.447,780
Delta 7,82737.4212,82861.331260.60970.46390.1900.00-5,001-23.9120,917
Dickinson 4,88133.699,43165.10880.61650.45210.1500.00-4,550-31.4114,486
Eaton 31,46049.4730,87648.566421.014510.711580.2500.005840.9263,587
Emmet 9,21641.8512,50656.79970.441520.69510.2300.00-3,290-14.9422,022
Genesee 120,38054.9494,50543.132,2101.011,5090.695060.2300.0025,87511.81219,110
Gladwin 4,90534.159,24564.361190.83590.41360.2500.00-4,340-30.2114,364
Gogebic 3,55643.734,43654.55640.79580.71180.2200.00-880-10.828,132
Grand Traverse 27,29145.6131,79253.132690.453970.66910.1500.00-4,501-7.5259,840
Gratiot 6,85636.1811,74661.991650.871260.66550.2900.00-4,890-25.8118,948
Hillsdale 6,23727.1916,22770.732511.091540.67730.3200.00-9,990-43.5422,942
Houghton 7,94143.2810,15155.32890.491420.77270.1500.00-2,210-12.0418,350
Huron 6,02133.4911,73065.251150.64650.36450.2500.00-5,709-31.7617,976
Ingham 92,37864.3548,37833.701,2600.881,2180.853230.2200.0044,00030.65143,557
Ionia 10,63933.5020,36164.104361.372390.75870.2700.00-9,722-30.6131,762
Iosco 5,80438.359,04059.731531.01950.63430.2800.00-3,236-21.3815,135
Iron 2,55438.014,06360.47510.76390.58120.1800.00-1,509-22.466,719
Isabella 13,84947.6214,67350.452430.842330.80870.3000.00-824-2.8329,085
Jackson 32,64940.9745,05456.541,0961.386200.782620.3300.00-12,405-15.5779,681
Kalamazoo 78,84255.4460,22742.351,3710.961,4561.023180.2210.0018,61513.09142,215
Kalkaska 3,01328.667,32869.70750.71700.67270.2600.00-4,315-41.0410,513
Kent 175,25648.86176,79549.292,9480.822,9560.827220.2000.00-1,539-0.43358,677
Keweenaw 68644.6983754.5310.0780.5230.1900.00-151-9.841,535
Lake 2,28636.733,80461.12851.37280.45210.3400.00-1,518-24.396,224
Lapeer 16,59031.9434,34066.125811.122830.541430.2800.00-17,750-34.1851,937
Leelanau 8,27749.178,38049.78610.361000.59170.1000.00-103-0.6116,835
Lenawee 19,76737.6431,65960.285391.034130.791390.2600.00-11,892-22.6452,517
Livingston 46,11836.6877,80261.898450.677020.562500.2000.00-31,684-25.20125,717
Luce 85528.742,07069.58230.77160.54110.3700.00-1,215-40.842,975
Mackinac 2,63837.774,26361.03430.62330.4780.1100.00-1,625-23.266,985
Macomb 224,44846.14252,05251.815,1111.053,5320.731,3340.2750.00-27,604-5.67486,482
Manistee 5,99541.178,35657.381010.69810.56300.2100.00-2,361-16.2114,563
Marquette 20,40854.8916,24743.701790.483020.81420.1100.004,16111.1937,178
Mason 6,66038.8210,23859.671140.661110.65350.2000.00-3,578-20.8517,158
Mecosta 7,22834.6613,27563.651670.801430.69430.2100.00-6,047-28.9920,856
Menominee 4,23034.497,79563.561281.04760.62350.2900.00-3,565-29.0712,264
Midland 19,92740.9628,05757.673230.662400.491020.2100.00-8,130-16.7148,649
Missaukee 1,99922.966,59875.78450.52490.56160.1800.00-4,599-52.828,707
Monroe 32,72138.3950,58059.341,0091.186380.752840.3300.00-17,859-20.9585,232
Montcalm 9,71430.7121,14666.864301.362110.671270.4000.00-11,432-36.1531,628
Montmorency 1,71729.584,02969.41320.55140.24130.2200.00-2,312-39.835,805
Muskegon 44,19248.5344,63749.021,1571.278100.892570.2800.00-445-0.4991,053
Newaygo 7,69628.6118,59369.133321.231740.651010.3800.00-10,897-40.5126,896
Oakland 418,31254.78334,62943.824,6940.614,7460.621,2120.1610.0083,68310.96763,594
Oceana 4,79634.458,80863.281601.15960.69600.4300.00-4,012-28.8213,920
Ogemaw 3,78832.247,75866.041020.87560.48440.3700.00-3,970-33.7911,748
Ontonagon 1,46439.002,22559.27310.83260.6980.2100.00-761-20.273,754
Osceola 3,22626.398,80872.061020.83520.43350.2900.00-5,582-45.6712,223
Oscoda 1,38428.643,37669.87400.83240.5080.1700.00-1,992-41.234,832
Otsego 4,70332.159,72766.49900.62730.50370.2500.00-5,024-34.3414,630
Ottawa 59,18735.29106,10863.271,0420.621,0900.652730.1610.00-46,921-27.98167,701
Presque Isle 3,05636.855,16762.30370.45210.25130.1600.00-2,111-25.458,294
Roscommon 5,30935.669,38563.03890.60660.44400.2700.00-4,076-27.3814,889
Saginaw 51,52050.3549,20948.098600.845250.512100.2100.002,3112.26102,324
Sanilac 6,24428.1115,54469.982170.981350.61730.3300.00-9,300-41.8722,213
Schoolcraft 1,71236.642,90562.18270.58170.36110.2400.00-1,193-25.544,672
Shiawassee 15,83040.8822,11057.104241.092450.631160.3000.00-6,280-16.2238,725
St. Clair 31,84635.1856,47662.381,1901.316920.763300.3610.00-24,630-27.2090,535
St. Joseph 8,82431.9918,01865.333901.412400.871090.4000.00-9,194-33.3427,581
Tuscola 9,42232.3419,17465.812961.021760.60690.2400.00-9,752-33.4729,137
Van Buren 15,94441.2021,81656.374771.233360.871260.3300.00-5,872-15.1738,699
Washtenaw 150,52970.0860,74528.281,2270.571,9620.913250.1510.0089,78441.80214,789
Wayne 582,36767.50260,14630.1510,8041.256,8790.802,6230.3000.00322,22137.35862,819
Wexford 5,68431.3812,12266.931490.821160.64410.2300.00-6,438-35.5518,112
Totals2,734,56849.902,642,23348.2250,5970.9239,2170.7213,0930.24120.0092,3351.685,479,720

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

John James won eight of Michigan's 14 congressional districts, including one district that was won by a Democrat, and Gary Peters won six of Michigan's 14 congressional districts.

DistrictJamesPetersRepresentative
1st 58.1%40.6% Jack Bergman
2nd 57.0%41.1% Bill Huizenga
3rd 53.1%44.9% Justin Amash
Peter Meijer
4th 60.6%37.8% John Moolenaar
5th 45.4%52.8% Dan Kildee
6th 53.4%44.5% Fred Upton
7th 56.2%41.7% Tim Walberg
8th 50.8%47.6% Elissa Slotkin
9th 42.2%55.8% Andy Levin
10th 62.6%35.5% Paul Mitchell
Lisa McClain
11th 48.7%49.9% Haley Stevens
12th 34.4%63.4% Debbie Dingell
13th 19.2%77.8% Rashida Tlaib
14th 20.2%77.9% Brenda Lawrence

Litigation

After Peters took the lead in the election on the 4th, James refused to concede the race. The following day, James claimed that he had been cheated out of winning the election in a statement published on his campaign website. The statement said that there were "[...] deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat" and that "[...] there is enough credible evidence to warrant an investigation to ensure that elections were conducted in a transparent, legal and fair manner." [7] A lawyer for James' campaign alleged that fraud was committed at the TCF Center, which the Trump campaign had also attempted to claim in a dismissed lawsuit. [6] [259] [260] James conceded the election to Peters on November 24. [261]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Sample size estimated by multiplying the total sample size with the percentage of it that identifies as Republican
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 10%
  5. "Refused" with 1%; Did not vote and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  6. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  7. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  8. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  9. "Someone else" with 2%
  10. Squier (G) with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  11. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  12. Squier (G) with 3%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  13. "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 2%
  14. Standard VI response
  15. "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  16. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  17. "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  18. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  19. "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  20. "Third party" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  21. "Other/third party" with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  22. Undecided with 3%
  23. Additional details sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  24. Not yet released
  25. Undecided with 1%
  26. Squier (G) and would not vote with 1%; Dern (Natural Law), "Someone else" and Willis (Taxpayers) with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  27. "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  28. Undecided with 9%
  29. "Other" with 1%; "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 1%
  30. Undecided with 7%
  31. Undecided with 6%
  32. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  33. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  34. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  35. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  36. "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 11%
  37. Undecided with 8%
  38. "Someone else" and Undecided with 1%
  39. Undecided with 9%
  40. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  41. "Someone else" and Undecided with 3%
  42. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  43. "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 11%
  44. Squier (G) and would not vote with 1%; Dern (Natural Law), "someone else" and Willis (Taxpayers Party) with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 13%
  45. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  46. Undecided with 10%
  47. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  48. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  49. Did/would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  50. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 3%
  51. "Do not recall" with 1%; "Did not vote" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  52. "Refused" with 2%; "Third Party" with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  53. Squier (G) with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  54. "Another Party Candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  55. "Another Party Candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  56. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  57. Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  58. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  59. Undecided with 12%
  60. "Someone else" with 8%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  61. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  62. "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  63. "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 9%
  64. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  65. Squier (G) with 2%; Willis (Taxpayers Party) with 1%; Dern (Natural Law) and "someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 11%
  66. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  67. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  68. Undecided with 14%
  69. "Other candidates" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  70. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  71. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  72. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  73. Squier (G) with 4%; Undecided with 10%
  74. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  75. "Another party candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  76. "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  77. Undecided with 8%
  78. Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  79. "Undecided/refused" with 10%
  80. "Third party" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  81. "None of the above/neither" with 2%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  82. "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  83. Undecided with 11%
  84. "Someone else" with 14%; "refused" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 12%
  85. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 10%
  86. Undecided with 9%
  87. "Another candidate" with 7%; Undecided with 8%
  88. Undecided with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  89. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  90. Undecided with 7%; "would not vote" with 2%
  91. Undecided with 10%; "would not vote" with 4%
  92. Undecided with 12%
  93. Undecided with 24%; would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  94. Undecided with 15%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  95. Undecided with 18.2%; "Someone else" with 13.7%; Would not vote with 1.5%
  96. Not sure with 13%; "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
  97. Undecided with 17%; "A different candidate" with 3%
  98. Includes "refused"
  99. "Third party" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  100. Undecided with 17%
  101. "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  102. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  103. The survey indicates the candidate is called 'Bob Barr', but this is assumed to be an error.
  104. "It is time for someone new" with 30.3% as opposed to "Peters deserves to be re-elected"
  105. "Candidate from another party" with 2%
  106. "Prefer not to answer/refused" with 7%; "will not vote/not sure" with 1%
  107. "Independent/Undecided" with 15%
  108. "Independent/Undecided" with 16%
  109. "Independent/Undecided" with 12%

Partisan clients

  1. Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
  2. 1 2 3 4 Poll conducted for James' campaign.
  3. Poll sponsored by The American Bridge PAC, which exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
  4. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  5. 1 2 The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll conducted for Progress Michigan, a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates.
  7. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  8. Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  9. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  10. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  11. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  12. Poll sponsored by Giffords, which had endorsed Peters prior to the sampling period
  13. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign

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References

  1. The other was in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tubberville unseated Doug Jones
  2. "United States Senate election in Michigan, 2020 (August 4 Democratic primary)". ballotpedia.org. Retrieved January 13, 2020.
  3. "Filing documents" (PDF). www.michigan.gov. Retrieved July 21, 2020.
  4. "Webpage update" (PDF). www.michigan.gov. Retrieved July 21, 2020.
  5. "Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters wins reelection". AP NEWS. November 4, 2020.
  6. 1 2 Gary Peters says John James' refusal to concede election '...pathetic' Archived November 6, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oakland Press
  7. 1 2 John James: Every vote must count, and elections must be fair and honest" Archived November 6, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Metro Times
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Further reading

Official campaign websites