2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas

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Turnout	66.9%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 760,647 423,932 Percentage 62.40% 34.78%
County results Congressional district results Township results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Vote
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. ^[1] Arkansas voters chose six electors ^[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. Also on the ballot were the nominees for the Libertarian, Green, Constitution, American Solidarity, Life and Liberty, and Socialism and Liberation parties and Independent candidates. Write-in candidates are not allowed to participate in presidential elections. ^[3]

Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations making predictions considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise a safe red state. In 2016, Trump won Arkansas by a 26.92% margin, ^[4] the largest margin for a candidate of either party since Jimmy Carter's 30.01% margin in 1976. In 2020, Trump won 62.40% of the vote to Biden's 34.78%, a 27.62% margin, ^[5] the seventh consecutive election in which Republicans improved on their margin in Arkansas, the longest in the nation of any state for either party. ^[6] This made Arkansas one of only six states, along with the District of Columbia, in which Trump improved on his performance in 2016. ^{[lower-alpha 1]} Despite improving on Hillary Clinton's performance in the Natural State by 1.13% in terms of raw vote percentage, Biden's losing margin makes it the largest loss by a Democrat in Arkansas since George McGovern's 38.1-point defeat in 1972. The last Democrat even to win over 40% of the vote was John Kerry in 2004. ^[6] After Barack Obama, Biden is the second ever Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Arkansas. This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican carried the state while losing re–election.

Trump won landslide margins across the state, including in many of the state's metropolitan areas and suburbs. Trump once again carried Woodruff County, formerly a Democratic stronghold, thus marking the first time since its founding that a Democrat was elected president without carrying the county. ^[7] Biden's strength was mostly isolated to Pulaski County, home to the state capital and largest city of Little Rock, and Jefferson County, home to Pine Bluff. He also won six rural, predominantly African-American counties on the eastern border along the Mississippi River. All but seven counties in the state swung heavily to the right, the exceptions being Pulaski County and one other county in the Little Rock metropolitan area; Sebastian County, home to Fort Smith; and three counties in the northwest encompassing and surrounding the college town of Fayetteville, where the University of Arkansas is located. ^[8] Notably, Biden lost Washington County, where Fayetteville is, by only 3.9 percentage points, the closest any Democrat has come to winning it since Clinton did so in 1996. Arkansas voted 32.07% more Republican than the national average in 2020.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump, former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente were the declared Republicans candidates. Tom Cotton, the current junior senator from Arkansas, declined to run in 2017. ^{[9] [10] [11]} As incumbent presidents rarely face prominent challenges in primaries, Trump won all 40 delegates and 97.13% of the vote.

This section is transcluded from 2020 Arkansas Republican presidential primary. (edit | history)

The following candidates are on the ballot. ^[12]

2020 Arkansas Republican presidential primary [13]
Candidate	Popular vote		Delegates
	Count	Percentage
Donald Trump	238,980	97.13%	40
Bill Weld	5,216	2.12%	0
Rocky De La Fuente	1,848	0.75%	0
Total	246,044	100%	40

Democratic primary

Eighteen candidates were on the Democratic primary ballot, of whom nine had already withdrew, three withdrew during the early voting period, and six were active candidates. Former Vice President Joe Biden won the primary with 40.59% of the vote and 17 delegates; he carried all but one county. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont came in second place, with 22.44% of the vote and 9 delegates. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg won 16.72% of the vote and 5 delegates; no other candidates won over 15% of the vote or any delegates. ^[14] Biden's win was widely predicted in polling and forecasts, ^{[15] [16]} similar to most other southern states; his best performance was along the eastern border along the Mississippi River and on the southern border, which have high concentrations of African American voters, who Biden consistently performed better among throughout the primary. He also won the Little Rock, Fort Smith, Jonesboro, and Pine Bluff metropolitan areas. Analogous with his performance in the 2016 primary, Sanders performed best in the northwest, traditionally the most Republican part of the state, holding Biden to less than 40 percent of the vote in many regions and winning Washington County, home to the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. Biden's strong performance in the state is a vestige of the prominence of moderate, white, Democratic politicians in and from the state throughout the late 20th century and 2000s which has largely faded amid increased political polarization and Republican gains among white, non-college-educated voters. ^[17] Aided by several other centrist candidates withdrawing from the race just before Super Tuesday ^[18] and a growing Democratic voter base in the suburbs, ^[19] Arkansas was a relatively noncompetitive state throughout the primary.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary § ARresults.[ edit ]

Popular vote share by county

  Biden—30–40%

  Biden—40–50%

  Biden—50–60%

  Biden—60–70%

  Sanders—30–40%

2020 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary ^[20]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates
Joe Biden	93,012	40.59	17
Bernie Sanders	51,413	22.44	9
Michael Bloomberg	38,312	16.72	5
Elizabeth Warren	22,971	10.03
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	7,649	3.34
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	7,009	3.06
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	2,053	0.90
Tulsi Gabbard	1,593	0.70
Kamala Harris (withdrawn)	715	0.31
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	715	0.31
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	574	0.25
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	572	0.25
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	501	0.22
Steve Bullock (withdrawn)	485	0.21
John Delaney (withdrawn)	443	0.19
Joe Sestak (withdrawn)	408	0.18
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	304	0.13
Other candidate	393	0.17
Total	229,122	100%	31

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [21]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
Inside Elections [22]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
Politico [24]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
RCP [25]	Likely R	November 3, 2020
Niskanen [26]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
CNN [27]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
The Economist [28]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
CBS News [29]	Likely R	November 3, 2020
270towin [30]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
ABC News [31]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
NPR [32]	Likely R	November 3, 2020
NBC News [33]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
538 [34]	Safe R	November 3, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 3]	Margin
270 to Win [35]	October 17–28, 2020	November 3, 2020	35.0%	60.3%	4.7%	Trump +25.3
FiveThirtyEight [36]	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	36.2%	58.9%	4.9%	Trump +22.8
Average			35.6%	59.6%	4.8%	Trump +24.0

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 4]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios [37]	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	1,309 (LV)	± 4%	61% [lower-alpha 5]	38%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios [37]	Oct 1–28, 2020	2,239 (LV)	–	60%	38%	-	-	–	–
University of Arkansas [38]	Oct 9–21, 2020	591 (LV)	± 3.9%	65%	32%	-	-	3%	–
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics [39]	Oct 11–13, 2020	647 (LV)	± 4.9%	58%	34%	2%	1%	2% [lower-alpha 6]	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [37]	Sep 1–30, 2020	771 (LV)	–	62%	38%	-	-	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [37]	Aug 1–31, 2020	689 (LV)	–	67%	32%	-	-	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [37]	Jul 1–31, 2020	747 (LV)	–	66%	32%	-	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [37]	Jun 8–30, 2020	354 (LV)	–	59%	38%	-	-	–	2%
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics [40]	Jun 9–10, 2020	869 (LV)	± 3.3%	47%	45%	-	-	5% [lower-alpha 7]	3%

Fundraising

According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $2,732,436.64, ^[41] Joe Biden and his interest groups raised $2,088,712.78, ^[42] and Jo Jorgensen and her interest groups raised $5,289.19 ^[43] from Arkansas-based contributors.

Candidate ballot access

The candidates on the ballot were listed in the following order: ^[44]

• Jo Jorgensen / Spike Cohen, Libertarian
• Kanye West / Michelle Tidball, Independent
• Brock Pierce / Karla Ballard, Independent
• Brian T. Carroll / Amar Patel, American Solidarity
• Howie Hawkins / Angela Nicole Walker, Green
• C. L. Gammon / Phil Collins, ^{[lower-alpha 8]} Independent
• Gloria La Riva / Sunil Freeman, Socialism and Liberation
• John Richard Myers / Tiara Lusk, Life and Liberty
• Don Blankenship / William Mohr, Constitution
• Joe Biden / Kamala Harris, Democratic
• Rocky De La Fuente / Darcy G. Richardson, Independent
• Donald Trump / Mike Pence, Republican

Political party candidates were eligible via a primary election or party convention and had to have filed an affidavit of eligibility, political practices pledge, and party certificate with the Arkansas Secretary of State by March 1, 2020, as did independent candidates. Independents also had to file a petition with at least 1,000 signatures of eligible voters from up to 90 days before the petition filing deadline on August 3, 2020. Write-in candidates cannot run in presidential, municipal, or primary elections. ^{[46] [47]}

Electoral slates

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for president and vice president. Arkansas is allocated six electors because it has four congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot must submit a list of six electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all six electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Arkansas, there are no laws regarding faithless electors, meaning their vote is counted and not penalized. ^[48]

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All six pledged electors cast their votes for incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021, per the Electoral Count Act.

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state: ^[49]

Donald Trump Mike Pence Republican Party	Joe Biden Kamala Harris Democratic Party	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen Libertarian Party	Kanye West Michelle Tidball Independent	Howie Hawkins Angela Nicole Walker Green	Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker Independent	Brock Pierce Karla Ballard Independent	Don Blankenship William Mohr Constitution	Brian T. Carroll Amar Patel American Solidarity
Ed Bethune Sharon Brooks Iverson Jackson J. D. McGehee Rod Soubers Doyle Webb	Connie Castleberry Nicole Clowney Frederick Freeman Megan Godfrey Philip Hood Asad Khan	James Hood Christopher Olson Morgan Reynolds Brian Shank Jake Simpson Joe Swafford	Addison Blakely Audrey Buckner Christopher Blakely Christopher Donegan Trista Nicole Donegan Courtney Johnson	Ryan Giglio Chad Jones Lowel Lybarger Marilyn Rumph Robin Rumph Andrew Waldron	None submitted	Joni Bilhartz Erin Krus Jeremy Plumlee Kelly Shadlow Susan Shadow Christopher Smiley	Jonathan Baker Spencer Graham Mitchell Ingram Margie Mullins Trently Mullins Brian Webb	Angela Clark-Chandler Everett DePangher Ashley Evans Gary Evans Lee Evans Adam Wheeless

C. L. Gammon Phil Collins Independent	John Richard Myers Tiara Lusk Life and Liberty	Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman Socialism and Liberation	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson Independent
None submitted	Jacob Faught Brenda Hinesly William Whitfield Hyman Brian Leach Zachary Caleb Mulson Glen Schwarz	Taylor Adams Karl Brown Aaron Gibson Jill Neimeier Destin Reishus Achal Thakore	Gevina Jackson Orlando Jones Phyllis McCullor Elisha Patrick Tiara Peters Therma L. Propps Jr.

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas ^[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	760,647	62.40%	+1.83%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	423,932	34.78%	+1.13%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	13,133	1.08%	−1.56%
	Independent	Kanye West Michelle Tidball	4,099	0.34%	n/a
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	2,980	0.24%	−0.60%
	Independent	Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker	2,812	0.23%	n/a
	Independent	Brock Pierce Karla Ballard	2,141	0.18%	n/a
	Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	2,108	0.17%	−0.24%
	American Solidarity	Brian T. Carroll Amar Patel	1,713	0.14%	n/a
	Independent	C. L. Gammon Phil Collins [lower-alpha 8]	1,475	0.12%	n/a
	Life and Liberty	John Richard Myers Tiara Lusk	1,372	0.11%	n/a
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman	1,336	0.11%	n/a
	Independent	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	1,321	0.11%	n/a
Total votes			1,219,069	100%	+2.83%

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Arkansas	4,304	68.40%	1,818	28.89%	170	2.71%	2,486	39.51%	6,292
Ashley	5,548	70.00%	2,125	26.81%	253	3.19%	3,423	43.19%	7,926
Baxter	15,836	75.38%	4,635	22.06%	536	2.56%	11,201	53.32%	21,007
Benton	73,965	61.68%	42,249	35.23%	3,698	3.09%	31,716	26.45%	119,912
Boone	13,652	79.77%	3,064	17.90%	398	2.33%	10,588	61.87%	17,114
Bradley	2,335	63.90%	1,214	33.22%	105	2.88%	1,121	30.68%	3,654
Calhoun	1,636	74.98%	479	21.95%	67	3.07%	1,157	53.03%	2,182
Carroll	7,424	62.93%	4,023	34.10%	350	2.97%	3,401	28.83%	11,797
Chicot	1,752	42.70%	2,260	55.08%	91	2.22%	-508	-12.38%	4,103
Clark	4,616	54.99%	3,438	40.95%	341	4.06%	1,178	14.04%	8,395
Clay	4,086	78.83%	962	18.56%	135	2.61%	3,124	60.27%	5,183
Cleburne	10,328	81.45%	1,988	15.68%	364	2.87%	8,340	65.77%	12,680
Cleveland	2,867	79.64%	651	18.08%	82	2.28%	2,216	61.56%	3,600
Columbia	5,500	63.83%	2,814	32.66%	302	3.51%	2,686	31.17%	8,616
Conway	5,694	65.56%	2,615	30.11%	376	4.33%	3,079	35.45%	8,685
Craighead	25,558	66.37%	11,921	30.95%	1,032	2.68%	13,637	35.42%	38,511
Crawford	18,607	77.24%	4,959	20.58%	525	2.18%	13,648	56.66%	24,091
Crittenden	7,333	44.80%	8,514	52.02%	520	3.18%	-1,181	-7.22%	16,367
Cross	4,946	71.25%	1,772	25.53%	224	3.22%	3,174	45.72%	6,942
Dallas	1,573	59.38%	963	36.35%	113	4.27%	610	23.03%	2,649
Desha	1,921	46.13%	2,016	48.41%	227	5.46%	-95	-2.28%	4,164
Drew	4,349	62.96%	2,426	35.12%	133	1.92%	1,923	27.84%	6,908
Faulkner	34,421	63.24%	18,347	33.71%	1,660	3.05%	16,074	29.53%	54,428
Franklin	5,677	79.63%	1,300	18.24%	152	2.13%	4,377	61.39%	7,129
Fulton	3,961	77.38%	1,035	20.22%	123	2.40%	2,926	57.16%	5,119
Garland	29,069	65.77%	14,045	31.78%	1,085	2.45%	15,024	33.99%	44,199
Grant	6,794	82.85%	1,268	15.46%	138	1.69%	5,526	67.39%	8,200
Greene	12,670	78.70%	3,058	18.99%	372	2.31%	9,612	59.71%	16,100
Hempstead	4,470	65.27%	2,138	31.22%	240	3.51%	2,332	34.05%	6,848
Hot Spring	9,202	73.28%	3,082	24.54%	273	2.18%	6,120	48.74%	12,557
Howard	3,367	69.65%	1,340	27.72%	127	2.63%	2,027	41.93%	4,834
Independence	11,250	77.52%	2,806	19.34%	456	3.14%	8,444	58.18%	14,512
Izard	4,631	79.71%	1,021	17.57%	158	2.72%	3,610	62.14%	5,810
Jackson	3,593	70.58%	1,365	26.81%	133	2.61%	2,228	43.77%	5,091
Jefferson	9,521	37.84%	14,981	59.55%	656	2.61%	-5,460	-21.71%	25,158
Johnson	6,938	73.05%	2,283	24.04%	277	2.91%	4,655	49.01%	9,498
Lafayette	1,757	65.58%	839	31.32%	83	3.10%	918	34.26%	2,679
Lawrence	4,569	78.01%	1,080	18.44%	208	3.55%	3,489	59.57%	5,857
Lee	1,286	45.15%	1,423	49.96%	139	4.89%	-137	-4.81%	2,848
Lincoln	2,729	70.43%	1,032	26.63%	114	2.94%	1,697	43.80%	3,875
Little River	3,715	71.76%	1,226	23.68%	236	4.56%	2,489	48.08%	5,177
Logan	6,441	78.31%	1,544	18.77%	240	2.92%	4,897	59.54%	8,225
Lonoke	22,884	74.63%	6,686	21.81%	1,092	3.56%	16,198	52.82%	30,662
Madison	5,658	76.97%	1,563	21.26%	130	1.77%	4,095	55.71%	7,351
Marion	5,783	77.08%	1,531	20.41%	189	2.51%	4,252	56.67%	7,503
Miller	11,920	72.12%	4,245	25.68%	364	2.20%	7,675	46.44%	16,529
Mississippi	7,296	59.12%	4,558	36.93%	488	3.95%	2,738	22.19%	12,342
Monroe	1,545	54.87%	1,147	40.73%	124	4.40%	398	14.14%	2,816
Montgomery	3,046	78.65%	731	18.87%	96	2.48%	2,315	59.78%	3,873
Nevada	2,133	63.52%	1,076	32.04%	149	4.44%	1,057	31.48%	3,358
Newton	3,192	79.84%	709	17.73%	97	2.43%	2,483	62.11%	3,998
Ouachita	5,294	54.98%	3,995	41.49%	340	3.53%	1,299	13.49%	9,629
Perry	3,479	75.19%	1,012	21.87%	136	2.94%	2,467	43.32%	4,627
Phillips	2,417	38.72%	3,623	58.04%	202	3.24%	-1,206	-19.32%	6,242
Pike	3,519	82.88%	644	15.17%	83	1.95%	2,875	67.71%	4,246
Poinsett	5,918	78.69%	1,424	18.93%	179	2.38%	4,494	59.76%	7,521
Polk	7,035	82.86%	1,246	14.68%	209	2.46%	5,789	68.18%	8,490
Pope	18,081	74.01%	5,772	23.62%	579	2.37%	12,309	50.39%	24,432
Prairie	2,786	79.71%	654	18.71%	55	1.58%	2,132	61.00%	3,495
Pulaski	63,687	37.47%	101,947	59.98%	4,322	2.55%	-38,260	-22.51%	169,956
Randolph	5,355	78.61%	1,215	17.84%	242	3.55%	4,140	60.77%	6,812
St. Francis	3,242	45.61%	3,604	50.70%	262	3.69%	-362	-5.09%	7,108
Saline	39,556	69.45%	16,060	28.20%	1,343	2.35%	23,496	41.25%	56,959
Scott	2,962	83.41%	483	13.60%	106	2.99%	2,479	69.81%	3,551
Searcy	3,365	83.73%	588	14.63%	66	1.64%	2,777	69.10%	4,019
Sebastian	31,198	66.18%	14,487	30.73%	1,455	3.09%	16,711	35.45%	47,140
Sevier	3,884	74.66%	1,116	21.45%	202	3.89%	2,768	53.21%	5,202
Sharp	5,938	78.48%	1,398	18.48%	230	3.04%	4,540	60.00%	7,566
Stone	4,616	77.74%	1,180	19.87%	142	2.39%	3,436	57.87%	5,938
Union	10,478	63.09%	5,584	33.62%	545	3.29%	4,894	29.47%	16,607
Van Buren	6,034	77.29%	1,593	20.40%	180	2.31%	4,441	56.89%	7,807
Washington	47,504	50.39%	43,824	46.49%	2,938	3.12%	3,680	3.90%	94,266
White	24,182	78.30%	5,978	19.36%	725	2.34%	18,204	58.94%	30,885
Woodruff	1,543	62.32%	856	34.57%	77	3.11%	687	27.75%	2,476
Yell	5,226	77.53%	1,284	19.05%	231	3.42%	3,942	58.48%	6,741
Totals	760,647	62.40%	423,932	34.78%	34,490	2.82%	336,715	27.62%	1,219,069

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +5–7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%
•   Republican — +10–12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5–15%
•   Republican — +>15%

By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts. ^[50]

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	69.1%	27.9%	Rick Crawford
2nd	53.1%	44.3%	French Hill
3rd	61.9%	35.2%	Steve Womack
4th	67.7%	29.6%	Bruce Westerman

Analysis

Arkansas is a majority-White, heavily-rural Southern state with a strong distaste for social liberalism, contained entirely within the Bible Belt. As a result, no Democrat has won Arkansas since native son and former governor Bill Clinton did so in 1996; since then, the Republican margin of victory has increased in every consecutive presidential election. The state thoroughly ceased to be competitive in 2008, when Democrat Barack Obama lost Arkansas by nearly 20 points despite decisively winning the national election. This marked a historic shift in the state; Obama became the first Democrat ever elected president without carrying Arkansas. The 2020 election is the seventh straight election where Arkansas has shifted to the right, the longest such streak in the nation for either party currently. Analysts at The New York Times speculated that the shift in 2020 occurred because Hillary Clinton, as the former First Lady of Arkansas, had a home state advantage in 2016. ^[51]

Continuing on this trend, Trump carried Arkansas again by a margin of 27.62%, a 0.7% increase from 26.92% four years earlier in 2016. Even as most of the nation swung slightly leftward, many counties in Arkansas still swung dramatically rightward. Trump improved his margin in the historically Democratic Delta county of Woodruff from 8.9% four years prior to 27.7% in 2020.

Biden's main bases of support were in Pulaski County (Little Rock), Jefferson County (Pine Bluff), and most of the counties along the Mississippi River. Despite his statewide loss, Biden shrank Trump's margin in Washington County—a northwest Arkansas county home to Fayetteville and in turn the University of Arkansas—from 9.9% to 3.9%.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Arkansas came from 86% with White, born again/evangelical Christians. Fifty-two percent of voters opposed changing the Arkansas state flag to remove the star that symbolizes the Confederacy, and these voters backed Trump by 88%–10%. ^[52]

In other elections, incumbent Republican Tom Cotton defeated Libertarian Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. in the senatorial election by 33 points, outperforming Trump. Harrington's performance is the best Libertarian senatorial performance in history in terms of voting percentage. ^[53] No Democrat filed in the senatorial race.

Notes

1. The other five states were California, Florida, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah.
2. Candidate withdrew after early voting had started.
3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
4. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
5. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
6. "Someone else" with 2%
7. "Another candidate" with 5%
8. C. L. Gammon was the original presidential nominee of the Prohibition Party, with Phil Collins as his running mate. After Gammon withdrew, Collins was given the party's nomination for president, but appears on the ballot a second time as Gammon and Collins' original candidacy was never removed. ^[45]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Arkansas
• 2020 Arkansas elections
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

References

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Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Arkansas
• https://www.arkansasonline.com:443/news/2020/sep/02/election-presents-multiple-choices/
• https://www.arkansasonline.com:443/news/2021/feb/08/election-cost-county-128357/?elections

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Arkansas", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Arkansas: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Arkansas". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Arkansas at Ballotpedia