![]() | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Marshall: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bollier: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Kansas |
---|
![]() |
The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term. [1] Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat or to drop out if they already filed. [2] The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020. [3] [4]
Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall was considered a narrow favorite based on polling, but he won by around 11 points, a larger margin than most experts predicted. However, this was the first Senate election since 1978 where a Democrat won Shawnee County, the first Senate election since 1974 where a Democrat won Riley County, and the first Senate election ever in Kansas's history where a Democrat won Johnson County; all three counties were also flipped by Democrat Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.
In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier. [37] Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall, [37] in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race. [37] Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving ... career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections." [37] Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It's very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect. ... I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier. ... I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times ... the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said. [37] In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach." [37]
Organizations
Individuals
Federal officials
Organizations
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Bob Hamilton | Kris Kobach | Dave Lindstrom | Roger Marshall | Susan Wagle | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs/Daily Kos [55] | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 419 (LV) | – | 15% | 35% | 4% | 26% | – | 4% [b] | 16% |
Wagle withdraws from the race | ||||||||||
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [56] [A] | May 10–12, 2020 | 600 (V) | ± 4% | 6% | 26% | 4% | 33% | 7% | – | 24% |
Hamilton announces his candidacy | ||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [57] [B] | February 12–16, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 2% | 40% | 5% | 23% | 8% | – | 21% |
co/efficient (R) [58] | January 19–20, 2020 | 1,246 LV | ± 3.2% | – | 29% | – | 29% | 6% | 9% [c] | 28% |
The Tarrance Group (R) [59] [C] | October 21–23, 2019 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.1% | – | 43% | 3% | 24% | 8% | 5% [d] | 16% |
with only Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Kris Kobach | Roger Marshall |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [60] [A] | May 10–12, 2020 | 600 (V) | ± 4% | 34% | 48% |
with only Bob Hamilton, Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Bob Hamilton | Kris Kobach | Roger Marshall |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [60] [A] | May 10–12, 2020 | 600 (V) | ± 4% | 10% | 29% | 41% |
with Mike Pompeo and Susan Wagle
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Kris Kobach | Roger Marshall | Mike Pompeo | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NRSC [61] [C] | October 21–23, 2019 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 17% | 11% | 54% | 7% [e] | 10% |
with only Kris Kobach and Mike Pompeo
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Kris Kobach | Mike Pompeo |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NRSC [61] [C] | October 21–23, 2019 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 24% | 68% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Roger Marshall | 167,800 | 40.28% | |
Republican | Kris Kobach | 108,726 | 26.10% | |
Republican | Bob Hamilton | 77,952 | 18.71% | |
Republican | Dave Lindstrom | 27,451 | 6.59% | |
Republican | Steve Roberts | 8,141 | 1.95% | |
Republican | Brian Matlock | 7,083 | 1.70% | |
Republican | Lance Berland | 6,404 | 1.54% | |
Republican | John Miller | 4,431 | 1.06% | |
Republican | Derek Ellis | 3,970 | 0.95% | |
Republican | Gabriel Robles | 3,744 | 0.90% | |
Republican | John Berman | 861 | 0.21% | |
Total votes | 416,563 | 100.00% |
U.S. Senators
Federal officials
State politicians
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
State legislators
Organizations
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Barbara Bollier | 168,759 | 85.34% | |
Democratic | Robert Tillman | 28,997 | 14.66% | |
Total votes | 197,756 | 100.00% |
Federal officials
Federal officials
State and local officials
Organizations
Unions
Newspapers and publications
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [108] | Lean R | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections [109] | Tilt R | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [110] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [111] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
Politico [112] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
RCP [113] | Lean R | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ [114] | Lean R | November 3, 2020 |
538 [115] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
Economist [116] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Graphical summary
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Roger Marshall (R) | Barbara Bollier (D) | Jason Buckley (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data For Progress [117] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 45% | 4% | 1% [f] | – |
VCreek/AMG [118] | October 25–27, 2020 | 1,149 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 43% | 2% | – | 8% |
GBAO Strategies (D) [119] [g] [D] | October 25–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% [h] | 46% | 4% | 4% [i] | – |
47% [j] | 47% | – | – | – | ||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [120] [E] | October 19–20, 2020 | 897 (V) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 43% | 5% | – | 9% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot [121] | October 18–20, 2020 | 755 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 42% | 4% | 2% [k] | 6% [l] |
co/efficient (R) [122] [F] | October 18–20, 2020 | 2,453 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 39% | 2% | – | 8% |
VCreek/AMG (R) [123] | September 29–30, 2020 | 3,104 (LV) | ± 1.75% | 42% | 45% | 2% | – | 11% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos [124] | September 26–29, 2020 | 677 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 43% | – | 2% [m] | 5% |
GBAO Strategies (D) [125] [D] | September 24–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 45% | 7% | – | – |
Data For Progress (D) [126] | September 14–19, 2020 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 40% [h] | 40% | 5% | – | 15% |
42% [j] | 42% | – | – | 15% | ||||
co/efficient (R) [127] [F] | September 15–16, 2020 | 794 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 39% | 2% | – | 16% |
SurveyUSA [128] | August 8–9, 2020 | 1,202 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 44% | – | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [129] [G] | August 5–6, 2020 | 864 (V) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 42% | – | – | 15% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos [55] | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 41% | – | 9% [c] | 8% |
NMB Research (R) [130] [A] | May 17–19, 2020 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 35% | – | – | 18% |
Public Policy Polling [131] | March 10–11, 2020 | 1,567 (V) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 37% | – | – | – |
Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Bob Hamilton (R) | Barbara Bollier (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs/Daily Kos [55] | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 41% | 11% [n] | 8% |
Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Kris Kobach (R) | Barbara Bollier (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs/Daily Kos [55] | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 42% | 11% [n] | 7% |
NMB Research/NRSC (R) [132] [C] | May 17–19, 2020 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 43% | – | 12% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [133] [H] | April 13–14, 2020 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | 44% | – | 13% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [134] [B] | February 12–13, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 47% | 38% | – | 15% |
DFM Research [135] [I] | January 30 – February 6, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 4% | 10% |
Kris Kobach vs. Barry Grissom
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Kris Kobach (R) | Barry Grissom (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R) [136] [C] | June 9–11, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 42% [o] | 52% | – |
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Generic Republican (R) | Generic Democrat (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC [137] [J] | September 15–16, 2020 | 794 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 39% | – |
Public Policy Polling (D) [133] [H] | April 13–14, 2020 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 50% | 40% | 11% |
DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division [138] [I] | January 30 – February 6, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 31% | 30% |
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R) [136] [C] | June 9–11, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 36% | – |
On the night of the election, Roger Marshall was announced as the winner of the Senate race. [139]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Roger Marshall | 727,962 | 53.22% | +0.07% | |
Democratic | Barbara Bollier | 571,530 | 41.79% | N/A | |
Libertarian | Jason Buckley | 68,263 | 4.99% | +0.67% | |
Total votes | 1,367,755 | 100.0% | |||
Republican hold |
Marshall won 3 of 4 congressional districts. [141]
District | Marshall | Bollier | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 66% | 29% | Roger Marshall |
Tracey Mann | |||
2nd | 52% | 42% | Steve Watkins |
Jake LaTurner | |||
3rd | 42% | 53% | Sharice Davids |
4th | 56% | 39% | Ron Estes |
Partisan clients
Svaty is done with politics. No U.S. Senate race in 2020.
Official campaign websites