2020 West Virginia gubernatorial election

Last updated

2020 West Virginia gubernatorial election
Flag of West Virginia.svg
  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  
  Jim Justice in November 2021.jpg Ben Salango.png
Nominee Jim Justice Ben Salango
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote497,944237,024
Percentage63.5%30.2%

2020 West Virginia gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2020 West Virginia Gubernatorial election by congressional district.svg
WV Governor 2020.svg
Justice:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Salango:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

Governor before election

Jim Justice
Republican

Elected Governor

Jim Justice
Republican

The 2020 West Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of West Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Governor Jim Justice announced his 2020 re-election campaign on January 7, 2019. [1] Justice was elected in 2016 as a Democrat, but later switched back to the Republican Party in a campaign rally with Donald Trump. [2] Justice won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic Kanawha County commissioner Ben Salango. Justice's re-election made him the first Republican to be elected governor of West Virginia since Cecil Underwood in 1996. Additionally, Justice became the first incumbent Republican governor to win re-election since Arch A. Moore Jr. in 1972, as well as the first Republican to carry all counties in West Virginia. However, Justice performed worse than Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who outperformed Justice by 5.13 percentage points. Additionally, Salango slightly outperformed Biden by 0.53 percentage points.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Shelby Jean Fitzhugh, retiree [4]
  • Michael Folk, former state delegate [5]
  • Brooke Lunsford, insurance agent [6]
  • Chuck Sheedy, U.S. Army veteran [7]
  • Doug Six, surveyor [6]
  • Woody Thrasher, former West Virginia Secretary of Commerce (2017–2018) [8]

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice
Mike
Folk
Woody
Thrasher
Other /
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research/WMOV May 18–26, 2020719 (LV)± 3.7%53%15%14%18% [lower-alpha 2]
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 1] December 16–18, 2019502 (LV)± 4.4%38%6%30%26%'
Research America Inc. December 4–9, 2019229 (LV)56%11%21%12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) August 24–25, 2019 [lower-alpha 3] 56%26%18%
Research America Inc. August 14–22, 2019216 (LV)53%12%19%17%'
WPA Intelligence [upper-alpha 2] August 13–14, 2019509 (V)38%11%23%28%
WPA Intelligence [upper-alpha 3] March 7–10, 2019509 (V)58%5%5%32%

Results

Results by county:
Justice
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Justice--80-90%
Justice--70-80%
Justice--60-70%
Justice--50-60%
Justice--40-50%
Folk
Folk--40-50% West Virginia Governor Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
Justice
  •   Justice—80–90%
  •   Justice—70–80%
  •   Justice—60–70%
  •   Justice—50–60%
  •   Justice—40–50%
Folk
  •   Folk—40–50%
Republican primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jim Justice (incumbent) 133,258 62.70%
Republican Woody Thrasher38,89818.30%
Republican Michael Folk 26,73512.58%
Republican Doug Six4,4292.08%
Republican Brooke Lunsford3,8491.81%
Republican Shelly Jean Fitzhugh2,7991.32%
Republican Chuck Sheedy2,5521.20%
Total votes212,520 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Ben Salango
Federal politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Stephen Smith
Federal politicians
Organizations
Ron Stollings
State legislators

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ben
Salango
Stephen
Smith
Ron
Stollings
Other /
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research/WMOV May 18–26, 2020231 (LV)± 6.4%30%27%10%33% [lower-alpha 4]
Research America/MetroNews December 4–10, 2019220 (LV)± 4.4%18%21%19%46% [lower-alpha 5]

Results

Results by county:
Salango
Salango--60-70%
Salango--50-60%
Salango--40-50%
Salango--30-40%
Smith
Smith--30-40%
Smith--40-50%
Smith--50-60%
Stollings
Stollings--50-60%
Stollings--70-80%
Murphy
Murphy--30-40%
Murphy--40-50% West Virginia Governor Democratic primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
Salango
  •   Salango—60–70%
  •   Salango—50–60%
  •   Salango—40–50%
  •   Salango—30–40%
Smith
  •   Smith—30–40%
  •   Smith—40–50%
  •   Smith—50–60%
Stollings
  •   Stollings—50–60%
  •   Stollings—70–80%
Murphy
  •   Murphy—30–40%
  •   Murphy—40–50%
Democratic primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ben Salango 74,805 38.68%
Democratic Stephen Smith65,54433.89%
Democratic Ron Stollings 25,78213.33%
Democratic Jody Murphy18,0399.33%
Democratic Douglas Hughes9,2314.77%
Total votes193,401 100.00%

Other candidates

Mountain Party

The Mountain Party received over 5% of the vote in 2016 with former State Senator and Delegate Charlotte Pritt as the party's gubernatorial nominee. The party nominates its candidate for governor by convention per its bylaws. [29]

Nominee

  • Daniel Lutz, Eastern Panhandle Conservation District Supervisor representing Jefferson County, and Commissioned U.S. Air Force Veteran [30]

Endorsements

Daniel Lutz

Organizations

  • Eastern Panhandle Green Coalition, environmental organization [31]
  • Jefferson County Vision, sustainability organization [31]

Libertarian Party

Nominee

  • Erika Kolenich, trial attorney [7]

Write-ins

The following candidates are certified write-in candidates. [32]

Declared

  • Quintin Gerard Caldwell
  • Michael Folk, former State Delegate (sought the nomination of the Republican Party)
  • Kimberly Gross
  • Mitch Roberts
  • Marshall Wilson, State Delegate (Independent) [33]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [34] Safe ROctober 23, 2020
Inside Elections [35] Safe ROctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [36] Likely RNovember 2, 2020
Politico [37] Likely RNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [38] Safe ROctober 28, 2020
RCP [39] Safe RNovember 2, 2020
270towin [40] Likely RNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Ben Salango (D)
Federal politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice (R)
Ben
Salango (D)
Daniel
Lutz (M)
Erika
Kolenich (L)
Undecided
Triton Polling and Research October 19–21, 2020544 (LV)± 4.2%53%35%3%3%5%
Research America Inc. October 1–6, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%53%34%2%5%6%
Triton Polling & Research September 29–30, 2020 [lower-alpha 6] 525 (RV)± 4.3%48%38%4%4%6%
Strategies Unlimited [upper-alpha 4] September 26–30, 2020600 (LV)± 4%46%40%5%8%
Mark Blankenship Enterprises (R) [lower-alpha 7] September 10–14, 2020504 (LV)± 4.3%54%27%9% [lower-alpha 8] 10%
Hypothetical polling
Jim Justice vs. Joe Manchin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice (R)
Joe
Manchin (D)
Other /
Undecided
Research America/MetroNews August 14–22, 2019501 (RV)± 4.4%39%49%12%

Results

West Virginia gubernatorial election, 2020 [43] [44] [45]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Jim Justice (incumbent) 497,944 63.49% +21.19%
Democratic Ben Salango237,02430.22%-18.87%
Libertarian Erika Kolenich22,5272.87%+0.72%
Americans Coming Together S. Marshall Wilson (write-in)15,1201.93%N/A
Mountain Daniel Lutz11,3091.44%-4.45%
Write-in 3630.05%N/A
Total votes784,287 100.00%
Turnout 802,72663.25%
Registered electors 1,269,219
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Undecided with 12%, Doug Six with 2.0%; Shelby Fitzhugh with 1.8%; Brooke Lunsford with 1.2%; Chuck Sheedy with 0.6%
  3. Not available
  4. Undecided with 29%, Jody Murphy with 2.9%; Douglas Hughes with 1.3%
  5. Undecided with 42%, Cecil Silva with 1.8%; Jody Murphy with 1.4%; Edwin Vanover with 0.5%
  6. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  7. Poll sponsored by Justice's campaign.
  8. Split between Danny Lutz (M) and Erika Kolenich (L)
Partisan clients
  1. Poll conducted for Woody Thrasher
  2. Poll sponsored by Woody Thrasher's campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by Woody Thrasher's campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by West Virginia First, which opposed Jim Justice's reelection bid prior to this poll's sampling period.

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References

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Official campaign websites