2020 Florida Senate election

Last updated

2020 Florida Senate election
Flag of Florida.svg
  2018 November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03) 2022  

20 of the 40 seats in the Florida Senate
21 seats needed for a majority
Turnout38.62%
 Majority partyMinority party
  Senator Wilton Simpson.jpg Senator Audrey Gibson.jpg
Leader Wilton Simpson Audrey Gibson
Party Republican Democratic
Leader sinceNovember 26, 2018November 19, 2018
Leader's seat10th-Trilby 6th-Jacksonville
Last election23 seats, 53.99%17 seats, 45.74%
Seats won2416
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 1Decrease2.svg 1
Popular vote2,663,0762,642,318
Percentage49.03%48.65%
SwingDecrease2.svg 4.96%Increase2.svg 2.91%

2020 Florida State Senate election.svg
Results:
     Republican gain
     Republican hold     Democratic hold
     No election

President before election

Bill Galvano
Republican

Elected President

Wilton Simpson
Republican

The 2020 elections for the Florida Senate took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, to elect state senators from 20 of 40 districts. The Republican Party has held a Senate majority since 1995. The result was a one-seat gain for the Republicans, thus maintaining their majority. [1]

Contents

The elections for U.S. President, U.S. House of Representatives, and the Florida House of Representatives were also held on this date. [2]

Republican operatives, supported by Florida Power & Light, [3] ran sham ghost candidates in three races. In District 37, former senator Frank Artiles had Alex Rodriguez placed on the ballot to successfully siphon votes from Senator José Javier Rodríguez. [4] Both Artiles and Alex Rodriguez were charged and fined for electoral fraud. [5]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [6] Lean ROctober 21, 2020

Competitive races

The most competitive races are expected to be the Democratic-held open Senate District 3 in North Florida, the Republican-held open District 9 to the northeast of Orlando, the special election in the Tampa area's open Republican-held District 20, the Democratic-held Senate District 37 in South Florida, and the Republican-held open District 39 in South Florida. [7] [8]

2016 Presidential Results [9] and 2020 Candidates in Competitive Races:

Senate districtClinton 2016 vote shareTrump 2016 vote share2020 Democratic nominee2020 Republican nominee
District 352.60% Clinton43.95% Trump Loranne Ausley Marva Harris Preston
District 945.98% Clinton49.87% TrumpPatricia Sigman Jason Brodeur
District 2043.99% Clinton52.28% TrumpKathy Lewis Danny Burgess
District 3759.55% Clinton37.89% Trump José Javier Rodríguez Ileana Garcia
District 3953.74% Clinton43.49% Trump Javier Fernandez Ana Maria Rodriguez

Overview

Florida Senate Diagram.svg
PartyVotes%Seats
Total
before
UpWonTotal
after
+/−
Republican Party of Florida 2,663,07649.0323101124+1
Florida Democratic Party 2,642,31848.651710916-1
Independent 125,4972.310000-
Write-in 6030.010000-
Total5,431,494100.0040202040±0
Source: Florida Division of Elections [10] [11]
Popular vote
Republican
49.03%
Democratic
48.65%
Other
2.32%
Senate seats
Republican
60%
Democratic
40%

Closest races

Seats where the margin of victory was under 10%:

  1. District 37, 0.02% gain
  2. District 9, 2.7%
  3. District 3, 6.8%
  4. District 20, 9.6%

Primary election polling

District 27 - Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Heather
Fitzhagen
Ray
Rodriguez
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics [12] July 28, 2020463 (LV)± 4.6%18%59%23%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen [13] [A] July 20, 20201,229 (LV)± 3%22%44%34%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen [14] [A] June 18–19, 2020460 (LV)± 4.5%34%24%42%

District 29 - Democratic

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Tina
Polsky
Irving "Irv"
Slosberg
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics [15] August 14, 2020477 (LV)± 4.5%49%37%13%

District 39 - Democratic

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Javier E.
Fernandez
Daniel "Dan"
Horton-Diaz
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics [16] August 1–2, 2020203 (LV)± 6.9%24%16%61%

Retiring incumbents

Democrats

Republicans

General election polling

District 3

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Loranne
Ausley (D)
Marva
Preston (R)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics [17] October 17–18, 2020948 (LV)51%44%5%
ALG Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC [18] [B] October 15, 2020503 (V)48%40%

District 9

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jason
Brodeur (R)
Patricia
Sigman (D)
Jestine
Ianotti (I)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics [19] October 31 – November 1, 2020522 (LV)± 4.3%42%49%2%7%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics [20] October 17–18, 2020490 (LV)± 4.4%43%52%5%
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC [21] [C] October 16, 2020400 (V)42%42%

District 20

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Danny
Burgess (R)
Kathy
Lewis (D)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics [22] October 24–25, 2020644 (LV)± 3.9%45%44%12%

District 37

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
José Javier
Rodríguez (D)
Ileana
Garcia (R)
SEA Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC [23] [D] October 13, 2020400 (V)42%37%

District 39

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ana Maria
Rodriguez (R)
Javier
Fernandez (D)
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC [24] [E] October 9, 2020503 (V)43%43%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC [25] September 8–11, 2020– (V) [b] 37%31%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC [26] July, 2020– (V) [c] 31%28%

Results

District 1District 3District 5District 7District 9District 11District 13District 15District 17District 19District 20District 21District 23District 25District 27District 29District 31District 35District 37District 39

[27]

District 1

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Douglas V. Broxson 185,380 65.3%
Democratic Karen M. Butler98,40734.7%
Total votes293,787 100%
Republican hold

District 3

2020 Florida's 3rd State Senate district candidate forum
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Loranne Ausley Marva Preston
1Sep. 22, 2020 League of Women Voters of Tallahassee
Tallahassee Democrat
Jim Rosica YouTube PP
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Loranne Ausley 137,609 53.4%
Republican Marva Harris Preston120,17646.6%
Total votes257,785 100%
Democratic hold

District 5

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jennifer Bradley 194,198 74.8%
Democratic Stacey L. Peters65,56825.2%
Total votes259,766 100%
Republican hold

District 7

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Travis J. Hutson 212,577 61.7%
Democratic Heather Hunter131,76338.3%
Independent Richard Dembinsky (Write in)130.0%
Total votes344,353 100%
Republican hold

District 9

2020 Florida's 9th State Senate district debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Jason Brodeur Patricia Sigman
1Oct. 6, 2020 WESH Greg Fox YouTube PP
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jason Brodeur 141,544 50.3%
Democratic Patricia Sigman133,90047.6%
Independent Jestine Iannotti5,7872.1%
Total votes281,231 100%
Republican hold

District 11

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Randolph Bracy 147,244 65.0%
Republican Joshua Eli Adams79,22435.0%
Total votes226,468 100%
Democratic hold

District 13

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Linda Stewart 152,769 60.6%
Republican Josh Anderson99,13439.4%
Total votes251,903 100%
Democratic hold

District 15

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Victor M. Torres 180,185 57.1%
Republican Louis T. Minnis123,15339.0%
Independent Mike James12,2073.9%
Total votes315,545 100%
Democratic hold

District 17

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Debbie Mayfield 193,560 60.6%
Democratic Scot Fretwell114,51535.9%
Independent Phillip Snyder11,3233.5%
Total votes319,398 100%
Republican hold

District 19

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Darryl Ervin Rouson 174,343 68.7%
Independent Christina Paylan79,46331.3%
Total votes253,806 100%
Democratic hold

District 20

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Danny Burgess 141,607 54.8%
Democratic Kathy Lewis116,68545.2%
Total votes258,292 100%
Republican hold

District 21

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jim Boyd 191,673 61.0%
Democratic Anthony "Tony" Eldon122,48039.0%
Total votes314,153 100%
Republican hold

District 23

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Joe Gruters 188,126 57.7%
Democratic Katherine Norman131,49140.3%
Independent Robert Kaplan6,6962.1%
Total votes326,313 100%
Republican hold

District 25

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Gayle Harrell 168,063 58.7
Democratic Corinna Robinson 118,21141.3
Total votes286,274 100.0
Republican hold

District 27

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ray Rodrigues 176,954 60.5%
Democratic Rachel Brown115,53739.5%
Total votes292,491 100%
Republican hold

District 29

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tina Polsky 156,441 55.7%
Republican Brian Norton124,50244.3%
Total votes280,943 100%
Democratic hold

District 31

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Lori Berman 156,495 62.2%
Republican Tami Donnally95,01937.8%
Total votes251,514 100%
Democratic hold

District 35

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Shevrin "Shev" Jones 188,942 99.7%
Independent Darien Hill (Write in)5900.3%
Total votes189,532 100%
Democratic hold

District 37

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ileana Garcia 104,630 48.53%
Democratic José Javier Rodríguez (Incumbent)104,59848.51%
Independent Alex Rodriguez6,3822.96%
Total votes215,610 100%
Republican gain from Democratic

District 39

Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ana Maria Rodriguez 123,556 55.6%
Democratic Javier E. Fernandez95,13542.8%
Independent Celso D. Alfonso3,6391.6%
Total votes222,330 100%
Republican hold

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Not yet released
  3. Not yet released

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Fitzhagen's campaign
  2. The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Ausley prior to the sampling period
  3. The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Sigman prior to the sampling period
  4. The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Javier Rodriguez prior to the sampling period
  5. The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Fernandez prior to the sampling period

See also

References

  1. "Florida State Senate elections, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  2. "Florida 2020 General Election".
  3. Martin, Jason Garcia, Annie (December 2, 2021). "Florida Power & Light execs worked closely with consultants behind 'ghost' candidate scheme, records reveal | Special Report". orlandosentinel.com. Retrieved December 2, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  4. Fox, Greg (August 5, 2021). "Deception and dark money: Court documents show scheme of ghost candidates in Florida senate races". WESH. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
  5. Harper, Mark. "Florida Senate 'ghost' candidate Alex Rodriguez faces $20,000 ethics fine". Daytona Beach News-Journal Online. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
  6. "October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races". The Cook Political Report . Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  7. Call, James. "Barack Obama weighs in on Florida Senate races; endorses Ausley for North Florida seat". Tallahassee Democrat. USA Today Network. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  8. Wilson, Kirby. "Florida Democrat: I can lift Biden and flip state Senate. Why won't my party help?". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  9. "Florida 2016 pres-by-sd.xlsx". Google Docs (Cited in Tampa Bay Times). Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  10. "Election Results Data Extract Utility". results.elections.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  11. "Voter Registration - By County and Party - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". dos.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  12. St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  13. Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen
  14. Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen
  15. St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  16. St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  17. St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  18. ALG Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  19. St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  20. St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  21. GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  22. St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  23. SEA Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  24. GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  25. Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC
  26. Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC
  27. "2020 Florida State Senate Election Results". results.elections.myflorida.com.