2004 United States Senate election in Florida

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2004 United States Senate election in Florida
Flag of Florida.svg
←  1998 November 2, 2004 2010  →
  Mel Martinez.jpg Betty Castor (cropped).jpg
Nominee Mel Martínez Betty Castor
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote3,672,8643,590,201
Percentage49.43%48.32%
2004 United States Senate election in Florida results map by county.svg
County results
Martinez:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Castor:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Graham
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mel Martínez
Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Graham decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. Graham made an unsuccessful bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. The primary elections were held on August 31, 2004. Republican Mel Martínez won the open seat with 49.4% of the vote to Democratic nominee Betty Castor's 48.3%. With a margin of 1.1%, this election was the closest race of the 2004 Senate election cycle. This was the first open-seat United States Senate election in Florida for this seat since 1974.

Contents

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

County results Florida Senate D Primary 2004.svg
County results
Democratic primary results [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Betty Castor 669,346 58.1%
Democratic Peter Deutsch321,92227.9%
Democratic Alex Penelas115,89810.1%
Democratic Bernard E. Klein45,3473.9%
Total votes1,152,513 100.0%

Republican primary

Martínez was supported by the Bush Administration.

Candidates

Results

County results Florida Senate R Primary 2004.svg
County results
Republican Primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mel Martínez 522,994 44.9%
Republican Bill McCollum360,47430.9%
Republican Doug Gallagher158,36013.6%
Republican Johnnie Byrd68,9825.9%
Republican Karen Saull20,3651.8%
Republican Sonya March17,8041.5%
Republican Larry Klayman13,2571.1%
Republican William Billy Kogut3,6950.3%
Total votes1,165,931 100.0%

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [3] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Betty
Castor (D)		Mel
Martínez (R)		OtherUndecided
Reuters/Zogby International [4] October 29 – November 1, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%43%48%1%9%
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics [5] October 30–31, 2004700 (LV)± 3.0%47%41%–12%
SurveyUSA [6] [A] October 29–31, 2004738 (LV)± 3.7%48%48%4%–
Strategic Vision (R) [7] October 29–31, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%45%49%–6%
InsiderAdvantage [8] October 29–31, 2004400 (LV)± 5.0%47%46%1%7%
Reuters/Zogby International [4] October 28–31, 2004600 (LV)± 4.0%46%46%–7%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup [9] October 28–31, 20041,138 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%–5%
1,300 (RV)± 3.0%48%45%–7%
Quinnipiac University [10] October 27–31, 20041,098 (LV)± 3.0%44%49%–6%
Reuters/Zogby International [4] October 27–30, 2004600 (LV)± 4.1%48%45%2%5%
Reuters/Zogby International [4] October 26–29, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%47%46%2%5%
Reuters/Zogby International [4] October 25–28, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%45%47%2%6%
Mason-Dixon [11] [B] October 26–27, 2004625 (LV)± 4.0%46%47%–6%
Strategic Vision (R) [7] October 25–27, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%46%49%–5%
Reuters/Zogby International [4] October 24–27, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%45%45%1%9%
The New York Times [12] October 23–27, 2004802 (LV)± 3.0%47%44%–10%
Reuters/Zogby International [4] October 23–26, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%48%45%–7%
Quinnipiac University [13] October 22–26, 2004944 (LV)± 3.2%46%49%–5%
Reuters/Zogby International [4] October 22–25, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%47%47%–6%
Strategic Vision (R) [7] October 22–24, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%–6%
InsiderAdvantage [8] October 22–24, 2004400 (LV)± 5.0%44%46%–10%
SurveyUSA [14] [A] October 22–24, 2004738 (LV)± 3.7%50%47%3%–
Reuters/Zogby International [4] October 21–24, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%44%47%1%8%
Schroth, Eldon & Associates (D)/
The Polling Company (R) [15] [C] 		October 19–21, 2004800 (LV)± 3.5%44%44%–12%
Research 2000 [16] [D] October 18–21, 2004600 (LV)± 4.0%48%48%–4%
Strategic Vision (R) [7] October 18–20, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%45%48%–7%
Quinnipiac University [17] October 15–19, 2004808 (LV)± 3.5%47%47%–5%
1,208 (RV)± 2.8%41%43%1% [b] 15%
SurveyUSA [18] [A] October 15–17, 2004596 (LV)± 4.1%47%49%3%1%
Mason-Dixon [19] [B] October 14–16, 2004625 (LV)± 4.0%45%45%1%9%
University of North Florida [20] October 10–15, 2004614 (LV)± 4.0%38%35%4% [c] 23%
Strategic Vision (R) [7] October 12–14, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%47%47%–6%
Strategic Vision (R) [7] October 4–6, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%48%45%–7%
Mason-Dixon [21] [E] October 4–5, 2004625 (LV)± 4.0%41%46%1%12%
Quinnipiac University [22] October 1–5, 2004717 (LV)± 3.7%47%48%–5%
1,083 (RV)± 3.0%44%40%2% [d] 14%
SurveyUSA [23] [A] October 1–3, 2004706 (LV)± 3.8%46%50%3%1%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup [24] September 18–22, 2004674 (LV)± 4.0%51%45%–4%
843 (RV)49%43%–8%
Quinnipiac University [25] September 18–21, 2004819 (RV)± 3.4%43%42%1% [b] 14%
SurveyUSA [26] [A] September 12–14, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%49%45%5%1%
Rasmussen Reports [27] August 24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%44%44%–12%
Hypothetical polling

Betty Castor vs. Bill McCollum

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Betty
Castor (D)		Bill
McCollum (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports [27] August 24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%42%39%–19%

Peter Deutsch vs. Mel Martínez

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Peter
Deutsch (D)		Mel
Martínez (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports [27] August 24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%39%47%–14%

Peter Deutsch vs. Bill McCollum

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Peter
Deutsch (D)		Bill
McCollum (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports [27] August 24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%37%44%–19%

Results

United States Senate election in Florida, 2004 [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Melquíades Rafael Martínez Ruiz 3,672,864 49.43% +11.9%
Democratic Elizabeth Castor3,590,20148.32%−14.15%
Veterans Dennis F. Bradley166,6422.24%+2.24%
Write-ins1870.00%+0.0%
Majority 82,6631.11%−23.83%
Turnout 7,429,89470.92% [29] +24.08%
Total votes7,429,894 100.00% +3,529,732
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

Results by county

2004 United States Senate Election in Florida (By County) [30]
CountyMel Martínez

Republican

Betty Castor

Democratic

Various Candidates

Other Parties

MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Alachua 43,07439.63%63,80958.71%1,8021.65%-20,735-19.08%108,685
Baker 6,81569.16%2,85328.95%1861.89%3,96240.21%9,854
Bay 49,63967.63%22,19030.23%1,5642.13%27,44937.40%73,393
Bradford 6,53460.83%3,93836.66%2702.51%3,59624.17%10,742
Brevard 142,39454.44%111,47742.62%7,6822.94%30,91711.82%261,553
Broward 231,26633.63%442,72864.37%13,7802.00%-211,462-30.74%687,774
Calhoun 3,13353.70%2,52643.30%1753.00%60710.40%5,834
Charlotte 43,07955.48%32,83742.29%1,7292.23%10,24213.19%77,645
Citrus 33,99849.68%31,69946.32%2,7424.01%2,2993.36%68,439
Clay 58,13172.24%20,83125.89%1,5031.86%37,30046.35%80,465
Collier 81,94865.97%40,33232.47%1,9341.56%41,61633.50%124,214
Columbia 14,01457.15%9,78039.89%7262.96%4,23417.26%24,520
DeSoto 4,99453.58%4,03143.25%2953.17%96310.33%9,320
Dixie 3,32252.67%2,73543.36%2503.97%5879.31%6,307
Duval 205,00154.68%163,74843.68%6,1601.64%41,25311.00%374,909
Escambia 88,78763.56%48,27434.56%2,6321.88%40,51329.00%139,693
Flagler 18,29448.13%18,81249.49%9042.38%-518-1.36%38,010
Franklin 2,70647.13%2,88650.26%1502.61%-180-3.13%5,742
Gadsden 5,23025.15%15,24673.33%3161.52%-10,016-48.18%20,792
Gilchrist 4,06058.87%2,57837.38%2583.74%1,48221.49%6,896
Glades 2,14752.15%1,82144.23%1493.62%3267.92%4,117
Gulf 4,08657.36%2,85840.12%1802.53%1,22817.24%7,124
Hamilton 2,20644.75%2,59752.68%1272.58%-391-7.93%4,930
Hardee 4,02456.38%2,80639.32%3074.30%1,21817.06%7,137
Hendry 5,35055.75%4,02741.97%2192.28%1,32313.78%9,596
Hernando 36,55746.08%39,63449.96%3,1433.96%-3,077-3.88%79,334
Highlands 22,32654.72%17,19642.15%1,2783.13%5,13012.57%40,800
Hillsborough 207,33146.29%230,29851.42%10,2612.29%-22,967-5.13%447,890
Holmes 5,11463.42%2,60832.34%3424.24%2,50631.08%8,064
Indian River 34,33857.82%23,51139.59%1,5432.60%10,82718.23%59,392
Jackson 10,44953.73%8,60544.24%3952.04%1,8449.49%19,449
Jefferson 2,72236.93%4,50461.10%1451.97%-1,782-24.17%7,371
Lafayette 1,76854.57%1,39042.90%822.53%37811.67%3,240
Lake 68,42556.37%49,63540.89%3,3192.73%18,79015.48%121,379
Lee 139,81059.90%89,04838.15%4,5311.94%50,76221.75%233,389
Leon 45,45334.09%86,18064.64%1,6911.27%-40,727-30.55%133,324
Levy 8,73553.39%7,12943.57%4973.04%1,6069.82%16,361
Liberty 1,44848.75%1,45949.12%632.12%-11-0.37%2,970
Madison 3,31840.58%4,64056.74%2192.68%-1,322-16.16%8,177
Manatee 72,82951.53%64,79545.85%3,6992.62%8,0345.68%141,323
Marion 73,53053.23%60,81444.02%3,7992.75%12,7169.21%138,143
Martin 39,07655.41%29,86842.35%1,5792.23%9,20813.06%70,523
Miami-Dade 367,86749.21%366,48249.02%13,2021.77%1,3850.19%747,551
Monroe 18,07547.19%18,96149.50%1,2673.31%-886-2.31%38,303
Nassau 21,89368.40%9,51929.74%5951.86%12,37438.66%32,007
Okaloosa 65,14674.71%19,64522.53%2,4132.77%45,50152.18%87,204
Okeechobee 5,95950.00%5,46445.84%4964.16%4954.16%11,919
Orange 188,12149.15%187,54949.00%7,0811.85%5720.15%382,751
Osceola 42,10352.00%36,56945.16%2,2962.84%5,5346.84%80,968
Palm Beach 200,44237.96%318,04260.23%9,5661.81%-117,600-22.27%528,050
Pasco 89,40048.01%90,76148.74%6,0443.24%-1,361-0.73%186,205
Pinellas 197,64042.55%254,45154.78%12,3792.66%-56,811-12.23%464,470
Polk 108,77452.28%93,23144.81%6,0512.91%15,5437.47%208,056
Putnam 15,94152.23%13,70144.89%8762.87%2,2407.34%30,518
St. Johns 56,25166.19%27,31932.14%1,4201.67%28,93234.05%84,990
St. Lucie 44,43645.34%50,66051.69%2,9052.96%-6,224-6.35%98,001
Santa Rosa 49,14974.65%15,16523.03%1,5242.31%33,98451.62%65,838
Sarasota 95,42550.08%91,65148.10%3,4551.81%3,7741.98%190,531
Seminole 102,89856.11%76,57941.76%3,9142.13%26,31914.35%183,391
Sumter 17,92957.05%12,84440.87%6562.09%5,08516.18%31,429
Suwannee 9,09558.45%6,06939.00%3972.55%2,62919.45%15,561
Taylor 4,24150.17%3,97246.98%2412.85%2693.19%8,454
Union 2,87462.49%1,63235.49%932.05%1,24227.00%4,599
Volusia 104,03246.21%114,93251.05%6,1742.74%-10,900-4.84%225,138
Wakulla 5,24045.10%6,04852.05%3312.85%-808-6.95%11,619
Walton 16,03868.56%6,77028.94%5852.50%9,26839.62%23,393
Washington 6,41463.45%3,45234.15%2422.39%2,96229.30%10,108
Totals3,672,86449.43%3,590,20148.32%166,8292.24%82,6631.11%7,429,894

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. 1 2 "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  3. ↑ "Other" and "Refused" with 2%
  4. ↑ "Someone else" and "Wouldn't vote" 1%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll conducted for WFLA-TV, WTLV, WKMG-TV, WPTV-TV, WFOR-TV, and WKRG-TV
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Tampa Tribune and WFLA-TV
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by Sun-Sentinel
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Tallahassee Democrat

References

  1. ↑ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Archived from the original on October 3, 2011. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
  2. ↑ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Archived from the original on October 3, 2011. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
  3. ↑ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Election 2004 Zogby Battleground State Polls". Zogby International . November 2, 2004. Archived from the original on November 6, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  5. ↑ "FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll" (PDF). FOX News . November 1, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 16, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  6. ↑ "No Sense Trying to Make Sense of FL: Was Tied, Remains Tied; Maybe" (PDF). SurveyUSA . November 1, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 22, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Poll Results – FL". Strategic Vision. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  8. 1 2 "Florida 2004 Polls". RealClearPolitics . Archived from the original on December 21, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  9. ↑ "Kerry holds edge in Florida". USA Today . November 1, 2004. Archived from the original on September 12, 2005. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  10. ↑ "Quinnipiac University Poll results in 3 key states". Quinnipiac University . November 1, 2004. Archived from the original on December 7, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  11. ↑ March, William; Epstein, Keith (October 30, 2004). "Bile Flows As A Tied Senate Race Heads To End". The Tampa Tribune . Archived from the original on December 13, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  12. ↑ "Castor Has Slim Lead in New Poll". The Ledger . October 30, 2004. Archived from the original on December 8, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  13. ↑ "Bush Has 3-Point Lead In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Has Slight Lead In Senate Race". Quinnipiac University . October 28, 2004. Archived from the original on May 20, 2014. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  14. ↑ "Florida: 8 Days to Election, Hold Your Breath; Kerry Up 2, Castor Up 3" (PDF). SurveyUSA . October 25, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  15. ↑ "Poll: Martinez, Castor still deadlocked in U.S. Senate race". The Miami Herald . October 25, 2004. Archived from the original on November 7, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  16. ↑ "Volatile Senate Contest a 48% Tie" . Sun Sentinel . October 25, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  17. ↑ "Kerry Closes Gap To Make Florida Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Senate Race Is A Dead Heat". Quinnipiac University . October 21, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  18. ↑ "Florida, 15 Days to the Election: President & U.S. Senate Races Tied" (PDF). SurveyUSA . October 18, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  19. ↑ Gedalius, Ellen; March, William (October 18, 2004). "Debate Could Sway Tight Race". The Tampa Tribune . Archived from the original on October 22, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  20. ↑ "Survey of Florida Voters Shows Close Presidential Race; Senate Race Shows Many Still Undecided" (PDF). University of North Florida . October 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  21. ↑ Cotterell, Bill (October 8, 2004). "Senate race has new leader". The Tallahassee Democrat . Archived from the original on October 24, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  22. ↑ "Bush Holds 7-Point Lead In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Kerry Gets Lift From First Debate". Quinnipiac University . October 7, 2004. Archived from the original on May 20, 2014. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  23. ↑ "Florida After First Presidential Debate: Bush Up by 5, Martinez Up by 4" (PDF). SurveyUSA . October 4, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  24. ↑ "Bush holds edge in key battleground states". USA Today . September 22, 2004. Archived from the original on September 12, 2005. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  25. ↑ "Hurricanes Blow Bush Into Lead In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Senate Race Is Too Close To Call". Quinnipiac University . September 23, 2004. Archived from the original on May 20, 2014. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  26. ↑ "Florida: Bush Up 6 Over Kerry, Castor Up 4 Pts Over Martinez" (PDF). SurveyUSA . September 14, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 13, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  27. 1 2 3 4 "Florida Senate Race: Castor Strongest Democrat". Rasmussen Reports . August 24, 2004. Archived from the original on October 13, 2004. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  28. ↑ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
  29. ↑ "Voter Registration - Yearly - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". Archived from the original on December 5, 2016. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
  30. ↑ "Our Campaigns - FL US Senate Race - Nov 02, 2004". www.ourcampaigns.com. Retrieved January 15, 2025.

Debates

Official campaign websites (archived)
Democrats

Republicans

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