2020 United States presidential election in Ohio

Last updated

2020 United States presidential election in Ohio
Flag of Ohio.svg
  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  
Turnout74% Increase2.svg [1]
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote180
Popular vote3,154,8342,679,165
Percentage53.27%45.24%

Ohio Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
OH-20-pres-districts.svg
2020 United States Presidential Election in Ohio Township Results.svg
2020 Presidential Election in Ohio by Precinct.svg

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Ohio was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. [2] Ohio voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee—incumbent President Donald Trump and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence—against the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris. Ohio had 18 electoral votes in the Electoral College. [3]

Contents

Despite polling showing a very narrow Trump lead, Trump won Ohio with 53.27% of the vote, defeating Biden who received 45.24% of the vote, a margin of 8.03%. Trump won by nearly the same margin that he defeated Hillary Clinton by in 2016. This marked the first time since 1960 that Ohio voted for the losing candidate, breaking a streak of the state voting for 14 consecutive winning candidates that began in 1964. This is the second consecutive election in which the state voted over 10 points to the right of the nation as a whole, confirming the state's trend towards the Republicans.

Biden became the first Democrat since FDR in 1932 [4] to win the White House without carrying the heavily unionized carmaking counties of Mahoning and Trumbull, the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win the White House without carrying Lorain County, the first Democrat since JFK in 1960 to win the White House without Ashtabula, Ottawa, or Portage Counties, and the first since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win without Erie, Stark, or Wood Counties. Furthermore, this is the first time since 1976 that Ohio voted to the right of Texas - a state that last voted Democratic that year, while Ohio had backed Barack Obama in both of his elections. Additionally, this is the first time since 1892 that an incumbent president carried the state while losing reelection nationally. Trump won 81 of Ohio's 88 counties compared to 80 in 2016, the most since Ronald Reagan won 82 in 1984.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for March 17, 2020. However, on March 16, Governor Mike DeWine recommended moving the primaries to June amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. As the governor does not have the power to unilaterally make this decision, he went to court to request the delay. [5] However, a judge rejected the lawsuit. [6] Later in the day, the state's health director ordered the polls closed as a health emergency. [7] On March 17, the Ohio Supreme Court allowed the primaries to be postponed to June 2. [8] Then on March 25, in-person voting was canceled, and the deadline for mail-in voting was moved back to April 28. [9]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Ohio's 82 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention. [10]

2020 Ohio Republican primary [11]
CandidateVotes%Delegates
Donald Trump 713,546100.0082
Total713,546100%82

Democratic primary

2020 Ohio Democratic presidential primary [12]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [13]
Joe Biden 647,28472.37115
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)149,68316.7421
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)30,9853.46
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)28,7043.21
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)15,1131.69
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)11,8991.33
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)4,5600.51
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)2,8010.31
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)2,0300.23
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)8220.09
Andrew Yang (write-in; withdrawn)5020.06
Total894,383100%136

General election

Final predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report [14] Tossup
Inside Elections [15] Tossup
Sabato's Crystal Ball [16] Lean R
Politico [17] Tossup
RCP [18] Tossup
Niskanen [19] Tossup
CNN [20] Tossup
The Economist [21] Tossup
CBS News [22] Tossup
270towin [23] Tossup
ABC News [24] Tossup
NPR [25] Tossup
NBC News [26] Tossup
538 [27] Tossup

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
270 to Win November 1–2, 2020November 3, 202046.7%47.6%5.7%
Real Clear Politics October 28, 2020 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202046.3%47.3%6.4%
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020November 3, 202046.6%47.5%5.7%
Average46.6%47.5%5.9%

June 1, 2020 – October 31, 2020

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 26,025 (LV)± 2%51% [lower-alpha 3] 47%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 31 – Nov 1800 (LV)± 3.5%49%45%3% [lower-alpha 4]
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1450 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%2% [lower-alpha 5] 4%
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 1516 (LV)± 5.8%52%47%1%0%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 29 – Nov 11,136 (LV)± 3%49%48%1% [lower-alpha 6] 1%
Quinnipiac University Oct 28 – Nov 11,440 (LV)± 2.6%43%47%2% [lower-alpha 5] 8%
Survey Monkey/Tableau Oct 20 – Nov 15,305 (LV)± 2.0%50%47%
Trafalgar Group Oct 30–311,041 (LV)± 2.96%49%44%
Emerson College Oct 29–31656 (LV)± 3.8%49% [lower-alpha 7] 50%2% [lower-alpha 5]
Morning Consult Oct 22–312,179 (LV)± 2%49%47%
AtlasIntel Oct 29–30660 (LV)± 4%50%47%3%
Gravis Marketing Oct 27–28613 (LV)± 4%49%47%4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 20208,089 (LV)51%47%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–271,186 (LV)± 2.9%43%48%1% [lower-alpha 6] 8%
Swayable Oct 23–26440 (LV)± 6.3%55%44%1%0%
Wick Surveys Oct 24–251,000 (LV)± 3.1%49%47%
Citizen Data Oct 17–201,000 (LV)± 3%44%43%2%1%2%8%
Fox News Oct 17–201,018 (LV)± 3%48%45%3%1%1% [lower-alpha 8] 3%
Morning Consult Oct 11–202,271 (LV)± 2.1%49%47%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 18–19800 (LV)± 3.5%47%48%2% [lower-alpha 9] 4%
Quinnipiac University Oct 8–121,160 (LV)± 2.9%47%48%2% [lower-alpha 5] 4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising [upper-alpha 1] Oct 8–11586 (LV)± 4.2%50%47%2% [lower-alpha 5] 1%
Morning Consult Oct 2–112,283 (LV)± 2.1%49%46%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 30 – Oct 81,009 (LV)± 3.1%47%45%1%0%1% [lower-alpha 10] 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 2–6661 (LV)± 4.3%44%45%2%1%0% [lower-alpha 11] 7% [lower-alpha 12]
Trafalgar Group Oct 1–31,035 (LV)± 2.97%48%44%3%1%1% [lower-alpha 6] 4%
YouGov/CBS Sep 30 – Oct 21,114 (LV)± 3.7%47%47%1% [lower-alpha 13] 5%
OnMessage Inc./American Action Forum [upper-alpha 2] Sep 28 – Oct 1800 (LV)± 3.46%48%47%2%1%0% [lower-alpha 14] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–304,012 (LV)51%47%2%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign [upper-alpha 3] Sep 24–27400 (LV)± 4.9%49%47%
Fox News Sep 20–23830 (LV)± 3%45%50%1%1%0% [lower-alpha 15] 2%
907 (RV)± 3%44%49%1%2%2% [lower-alpha 16] 3%
Quinnipiac University Sep 17–211,078 (LV)± 3%47%48%2%4%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 9–221,011 (LV)± 3.3%44%45%2%0%1% [lower-alpha 10] 7%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising [upper-alpha 1] Sep 11–15556 (RV)± 4.3%48% [lower-alpha 17] 45%5% [lower-alpha 18] 1%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 71,963 (LV)± (2%–4%)50% [lower-alpha 19] 45%
OnMessage Inc./American Action Forum [upper-alpha 2] Aug 31 – Sep 3800 (LV)± 3.46%51%45%2% [lower-alpha 16] 3%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Sep 1–21,000 (LV)± 3%47% [lower-alpha 7] 51%3% [lower-alpha 4]
ALG Research/Progressive Policy Institute [upper-alpha 4] Aug 26 – Sep 1500 (LV)46%48%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–313,220 (LV)51%48%2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–301,811 (LV)± (2%–4%)50%45%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising [upper-alpha 1] Aug 13–17631 (RV)47%47%4% [lower-alpha 20] 2%
Morning Consult Aug 7–161,744 (LV)± (2%–4%)49%45%
TargetSmart/Progress Ohio [upper-alpha 5] Jul 28 – Aug 31,249 (LV)± 3.6%46%47%8% [lower-alpha 21]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–313,694 (LV)52%46%2%
Morning Consult Jul 17–261,741 (LV)± 2.3%48%45%
YouGov/CBS Jul 21–241,211 (LV)± 3.6%46%45%2% [lower-alpha 22] 7%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23805 (RV)± 3.5%41%43%4%1%11%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/AGPAC Archived July 22, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 6] Jul 15–16750 (LV)± 4%46%50%2% [lower-alpha 9] 2%
University of Akron Jun 24 – Jul 151,037 (RV)± 3.0%42%46%6% [lower-alpha 23] 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–301,610 (LV)50%49%1%
Quinnipiac Jun 18–221,139 (RV)± 2.9%45%46%4% [lower-alpha 24] 5%
Fox News May 30 – Jun 2803 (RV)± 3.5%43%45%6% [lower-alpha 25] 6%

January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
OtherUndecided
Morning Consult May 17–261,720 (LV)50%42%
Emerson College May 8–10725 (RV)± 3.5%51% [lower-alpha 26] 49%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Apr 20–25797 (RV)± 3.7%44%45%11%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–251,025 (RV)± 3.3%47%43%10%
Change Research Mar 21–23510 (LV)52%44%5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–131,710 (RV)± 2.9%45%49%1%5%

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%46%48%6%
Climate Nexus [lower-alpha 27] Oct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%47%53%
42%48%10%
Emerson College Sep 29 – October 2, 2019837 (RV)± 3.2%47%53%
Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%42%50%
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018648 (V)± 3.9%44%48%8%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%44%43%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%47%43%10%
Climate Nexus [lower-alpha 27] Oct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%50%50%
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%46%43%11%
Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%44%44%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%47%43%10%
Climate Nexus [lower-alpha 27] Oct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%50%50%
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%46%43%11%
Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%44%44%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
OtherUndecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 20201,025 (RV)± 3.3%47%41%12%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–13, 20201,710 (RV)± 2.9%46%48%1%5%
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%47%47%7%
Climate Nexus [lower-alpha 27] Oct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%48%52%
45%47%8%
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019837 (RV)± 3.2%47%53%
Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%46%45%
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018648 (V)± 3.9%46%47%7%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%47%47%6%
Climate Nexus [lower-alpha 27] Oct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%49%51%
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%45%46%9%
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019837 (RV)± 3.2%48%52%
Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%46%45%
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018648 (V)± 3.9%49%43%9%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017805 (LV)± 3.5%40%44%16%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018648 (V)± 3.9%42%48%10%

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019837 (RV)± 3.2%46%54%

with Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019837 (RV)± 3.2%49%51%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019837 (RV)± 3.2%49%51%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
OtherUndecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020997 (RV)± 3.7%49.4% [lower-alpha 28] 48.3%2.1% [lower-alpha 29]
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 20201,031 (RV)± 3.1%41.3% [lower-alpha 28] 47.1%11.5%
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%47%48%5%
Ohio Northern University Apr 5–10, 20191,505 (A)± 2.7%34%41%18%
Baldwin Wallace University Apr 24 – May 2, 2018811 (RV)± 3.5%41%44%6%9%
Baldwin Wallace University Feb 28 – Mar 9, 20181,011 (RV)± 3.0%34%32%

with John Kasich and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
John
Kasich (R)
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Baldwin Wallace University Apr 24 – May 2, 2018811 (RV)± 3.5%37%31%13%19%
Baldwin Wallace University Feb 28 – Mar 9, 20181,011 (RV)± 3.0%41%20%12%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Ohio [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
3,154,834 53.27% +1.96%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
2,679,16545.24%+2.00%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
67,5691.14%-2.01%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
18,8120.32%-0.52%
Write-in 1,8220.03%-0.99%
Total votes5,922,202 100.00%

By county

County [29] Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian
Howie Hawkins
Green
Various candidates
Write-ins
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Adams 9,87081.27%2,15617.75%920.76%270.22%00.00%7,71463.52%12,145
Allen 33,11668.85%14,14929.42%5901.23%1380.29%1060.22%18,96739.43%48,099
Ashland 19,40773.50%6,54124.77%3451.31%1050.40%70.03%12,86648.73%26,405
Ashtabula 26,89060.79%16,49737.29%5591.26%1960.44%950.21%10,39323.50%44,237
Athens 10,86241.58%14,77256.55%2991.14%1150.44%720.28%−3,910−14.97%26,120
Auglaize 20,79880.54%4,65118.01%2601.01%00.00%1130.44%16,14762.53%25,822
Belmont 23,56071.09%9,13827.57%2850.86%980.30%600.18%14,42243.52%33,141
Brown 16,48077.96%4,38020.72%1820.86%540.26%430.20%12,10057.24%21,139
Butler 114,39261.26%69,61337.28%2,1771.17%4930.26%620.03%44,77923.98%186,737
Carroll 10,74575.49%3,25122.84%1561.10%560.39%250.18%7,49452.65%14,233
Champaign 14,58972.93%5,06225.31%2601.30%550.27%370.18%9,52747.62%20,003
Clark 39,03260.65%24,07637.41%8291.29%2450.38%1690.26%14,95623.24%64,351
Clermont 74,57067.36%34,09230.79%1,5131.37%00.00%5350.48%40,47836.57%110,710
Clinton 15,48875.32%4,69722.84%2701.31%670.33%410.20%10,79152.48%20,563
Columbiana 35,72671.51%13,35926.74%6071.21%1620.32%1060.21%22,36744.77%49,960
Coshocton 12,32573.50%4,12524.60%2271.35%620.37%290.17%8,20048.90%16,768
Crawford 15,43674.52%4,91623.73%2781.34%530.26%300.14%10,52050.79%20,713
Cuyahoga 202,69932.32%416,17666.36%4,5930.73%2,0310.32%1,6610.26%−213,477−34.04%627,160
Darke 22,00481.01%4,73117.42%3311.22%00.00%950.35%17,27363.59%27,161
Defiance 13,03867.27%5,98130.86%2721.40%780.40%120.06%7,05736.41%19,381
Delaware 66,35652.51%57,73545.69%1,6301.29%00.00%6530.52%8,6216.82%126,374
Erie 22,16054.83%17,49343.28%5221.29%1530.38%880.22%4,66711.55%40,416
Fairfield 50,79760.97%31,22437.48%1,0331.24%2230.27%340.04%19,57323.49%83,311
Fayette 9,47375.03%2,97523.56%1321.05%320.25%140.11%6,49851.47%12,626
Franklin 211,23733.40%409,14464.68%7,7181.22%2,1690.34%2,2640.26%−197,907−31.28%632,532
Fulton 15,73168.98%6,66429.22%2991.31%710.31%410.18%9,06739.76%22,806
Gallia 10,64577.14%2,99021.67%1320.96%320.23%00.00%7,65555.47%13,799
Geauga 34,14360.95%21,20137.84%5340.95%00.00%1430.26%12,94223.11%56,021
Greene 52,07258.74%34,79839.26%1,4581.64%2640.30%510.06%17,27419.48%88,643
Guernsey 13,40773.41%4,57725.06%1770.97%670.37%360.20%8,83048.35%18,264
Hamilton 177,88641.28%246,26657.15%5,2111.21%1,3890.32%1770.04%−68,380−15.87%430,929
Hancock 26,31067.86%11,75730.32%5801.50%1100.28%140.04%14,55337.54%38,771
Hardin 9,94975.10%3,06223.11%1921.45%440.33%00.00%6,88751.99%13,247
Harrison 5,79275.58%1,76823.07%590.77%360.47%80.10%4,02452.51%7,663
Henry 10,47970.86%4,06227.47%1751.18%440.30%280.19%6,41743.39%14,788
Highland 15,67879.68%3,79919.31%1460.74%00.00%530.27%11,87960.37%19,676
Hocking 9,73770.28%3,88028.00%1621.17%400.29%360.26%5,85742.28%13,855
Holmes 10,79683.19%1,99415.36%1250.96%00.00%630.49%8,80267.83%12,978
Huron 18,95669.72%7,75928.54%3871.42%830.31%50.02%11,19741.18%27,190
Jackson 11,30976.36%3,31122.36%1440.97%00.00%460.31%7,99854.00%14,810
Jefferson 22,82868.30%10,01829.98%3571.07%1000.30%1180.35%12,81038.32%33,421
Knox 22,34071.01%8,58927.30%3741.19%860.27%700.22%13,75143.71%31,459
Lake 73,27856.03%55,51442.45%1,2840.98%4080.31%2980.23%17,76413.58%130,782
Lawrence 20,30672.06%7,48926.58%2590.92%00.00%1250.44%12,81745.48%28,179
Licking 59,51463.05%33,05535.02%1,2791.35%3120.33%2360.25%26,45928.03%94,396
Logan 17,96476.74%5,05521.59%2721.16%690.29%490.21%12,90955.15%23,409
Lorain 79,52050.40%75,66747.96%1,6771.06%5340.34%3700.23%3,8532.44%157,768
Lucas 81,76340.66%115,41157.39%2,6051.30%7800.39%5480.27%−33,648−16.73%201,107
Madison 13,83569.57%5,69828.65%2691.35%00.00%850.43%8,13740.92%19,887
Mahoning 59,90350.26%57,64148.36%9660.81%4360.37%2440.20%2,2621.90%119,190
Marion 19,02368.25%8,26929.67%4141.49%1120.40%530.19%10,75438.58%27,871
Medina 64,59860.92%39,80037.53%1,1441.08%2660.25%2330.22%24,79823.39%106,041
Meigs 8,31675.83%2,49222.72%1111.01%320.29%160.15%5,82453.11%10,967
Mercer 19,45281.79%4,03016.94%2040.86%670.28%310.13%15,42264.85%23,784
Miami 41,37171.23%15,66326.97%7821.35%00.00%2610.45%25,70844.26%58,077
Monroe 5,46376.31%1,60522.42%540.75%260.36%110.15%3,85853.89%7,159
Montgomery 129,03447.94%135,06450.18%3,4181.27%8840.33%7640.28%−6,030−2.24%269,164
Morgan 5,04173.53%1,72525.16%640.93%00.00%260.38%3,31648.37%6,856
Morrow 14,07776.22%4,04821.92%2571.39%700.38%160.09%10,02954.30%18,468
Muskingum 27,86768.86%11,97129.58%4591.13%1630.40%70.02%15,89639.28%40,467
Noble 5,13580.89%1,17018.43%250.39%00.00%180.28%3,96562.46%6,348
Ottawa 14,62860.83%9,00837.46%2921.21%740.31%440.18%5,62823.37%24,046
Paulding 7,08674.72%2,21323.33%1241.31%380.40%230.24%4,87351.39%9,484
Perry 12,35774.10%4,09824.57%1701.02%470.28%40.02%8,25949.53%16,676
Pickaway 20,59372.73%7,30425.80%2951.04%00.00%1220.43%13,28946.93%28,314
Pike 9,15773.70%3,11025.03%1230.99%00.00%340.27%6,04748.67%12,424
Portage 45,99055.39%35,66142.95%9061.09%2950.36%1700.20%10,32912.44%83,022
Preble 17,02277.94%4,49320.57%2431.11%00.00%820.38%12,52957.37%21,840
Putnam 16,41282.28%3,19516.02%2471.24%610.31%320.16%13,21766.26%19,947
Richland 41,47269.15%17,64029.41%6801.13%1680.28%150.03%23,83239.74%59,975
Ross 22,27866.77%10,55731.64%3451.03%1160.35%690.21%11,72135.13%33,365
Sandusky 18,89662.72%10,59635.17%4481.49%1320.44%560.19%8,30027.55%30,128
Scioto 22,60970.54%9,08028.33%2620.82%910.28%90.03%13,52942.21%32,051
Seneca 17,08666.10%8,26631.98%3571.38%940.36%450.17%8,82034.12%25,848
Shelby 20,42280.74%4,46517.65%2901.15%710.28%450.18%15,95763.09%25,293
Stark 111,09758.44%75,90439.93%2,1631.14%6830.36%2460.13%35,19318.51%190,093
Summit 124,83344.38%151,66853.92%3,0031.07%8880.32%8880.26%−26,835−9.54%281,280
Trumbull 55,19454.57%44,51944.01%9130.90%3560.35%1700.17%10,67510.56%101,152
Tuscarawas 30,45869.09%12,88929.24%4941.12%1610.37%850.19%17,56939.85%44,087
Union 21,66964.62%11,14133.22%5351.60%1000.30%900.27%10,52831.40%33,535
Van Wert 11,65077.70%3,06720.45%2011.34%420.28%340.23%8,58357.25%14,994
Vinton 4,63276.71%1,33122.04%470.78%170.28%110.18%3,30154.67%6,038
Warren 87,98864.49%46,06933.76%1,7471.28%00.00%6370.47%41,91930.73%136,441
Washington 22,30769.53%9,24328.81%3721.16%1090.34%500.16%13,06440.72%32,081
Wayne 36,75967.72%16,66030.69%6651.23%1730.32%260.05%20,09937.03%54,283
Williams 13,45272.12%4,84225.96%2851.53%700.38%20.01%8,61046.16%18,651
Wood 35,75752.89%30,61745.29%9921.47%2110.31%230.03%5,1407.60%67,600
Wyandot 8,46274.21%2,73323.97%1551.36%380.33%150.13%5,72950.24%11,403
Totals3,154,83453.18%2,679,16545.16%67,5691.14%18,8120.32%12,0180.20%475,6698.03%5,932,398


Franklin County Result by Cities Franklin Country Detailed Map.jpg
Franklin County Result by Cities


Ohio County Swing 2020.svg
Ohio counties trend 2016-2020.svg
Ohio County Flips 2020.svg


Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 12 out of the 16 congressional districts in Ohio.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st 50.9%47.7% Steve Chabot
2nd 55.6%42.9% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 28.4%70% Joyce Beatty
4th 67.1%31.2% Jim Jordan
5th 61.6%36.7% Bob Latta
6th 72.2%26.5% Bill Johnson
7th 65.3%33.2% Bob Gibbs
8th 66%32.5% Warren Davidson
9th 39.7%58.8% Marcy Kaptur
10th 51.4%47% Mike Turner
11th 19.2%79.8% Marcia Fudge
12th 52.2%46.3% Troy Balderson
13th 47.6%51% Tim Ryan
14th 53.9%44.9% David Joyce
15th 56.3%42.2% Steve Stivers
16th 56.5%42.2% Anthony Gonzalez

Analysis

Ohio was considered one of the most competitive states in the Midwest in the early 21st century. For example, it was a vital tipping-point state in the heavily contested 2004 election, and its projection in 2012 put Barack Obama over the top in the Electoral College. After Trump won Ohio in 2016 by an unexpectedly large margin of 8 points, it was initially considered out of reach for Democrats. However, Democrats contested it after polling pointed to a possibly close result in 2020.

From 1964 through 2016, Ohio had been a reliable bellwether, voting for the winner of every presidential election. In 2016, however, it voted over ten points to the right of the nation as a whole, indicating that it might be on the cusp of losing its bellwether status. [30] And indeed, in 2020, Ohio backed the losing nominee for the first time since it backed Richard Nixon in 1960, and in doing so, it voted over ten points to the right of the nation overall for the second time in a row, giving Trump a comfortable eight-point margin even as he lost nationally. This indicated that Ohio is likely following a similar path to that of Missouri, another former bellwether state in the Midwest that has more recently become reliably red. (Missouri voted for the winning candidate in every election from 1960 to 2004. In 2008, Missouri narrowly backed Republican John McCain despite the fact that he lost the election by a wide margin nationally, and in every election since it has voted Republican by a comfortable margin.) In this election, Ohio weighed in at 12.5% more Republican than the nation as a whole, even voting more Republican than Texas, a Southern state that has been a GOP stronghold for four decades.

While Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton in the Midwest at large, Trump managed to flip two Ohio counties Republican: Lorain, a suburban county of Cleveland, and Mahoning, anchored by the car-making town of Youngstown. Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Lorain County since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and the first to win Mahoning County since Richard Nixon in 1972. Biden became the first Democrat since FDR in 1932 [31] to win the White House without carrying Mahoning County and Trumbull County, and the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win the White House without carrying Lorain County. On the other hand, Biden flipped back Montgomery County, home to Dayton, into the Democratic column, a county which Trump had flipped in 2016. He also came within 7 points of flipping suburban Delaware County in the Columbus area, the closest a Democrat has come to flipping it since 1964.

Biden's results were an all time-best for Democrats in two counties - Franklin, home to the state capital of Columbus, where he received 64.68% of the vote and beat Trump by 31 points, and Hamilton, home to Cincinnati, where he received 57.15% of the vote and beat Trump by 16 points—even greater than Franklin D. Roosevelt's and Lyndon B. Johnson's landslides. Biden's Delaware County result of 45.69% was a 56-year best, and in Warren County of suburban Cincinnati, his result was a 44-year best. He also outperformed Obama's 2012 results in Butler (Cincinnati suburbs) and Greene (Dayton suburbs) counties.

However, in all other counties, Biden underperformed Barack Obama's 2008 and 2012 results and occasionally also John Kerry's 2004 results. For example, in Athens County, home to Ohio University, which has been one of the Democrats' strongest counties that Obama won by 35 points in both 2008 and 2012, Biden improved Clinton's result by 1.5 percent, but Trump reduced his 2016 losing margin from 17 points to 15 points and managed to win 40% of the county's vote, the first Republican to do so since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden underperformed Clinton in the Northeast and Lake Erie area, also in the most populous counties - in addition to losing Mahoning and Lorain counties, although in Cuyahoga County, home to Cleveland, he improved Clinton's 2016 result by 1 point, his 34-point winning margin was one point worse than Clinton's, six points down from Obama's 2012 40-point and only 0.36 percent better than Kerry's in 2004. In Lucas County, home to Toledo, he improved Clinton's result by 1.5 percent, but at a 1 percent worse margin at 16.73%, a 32-year low for Democrats after Michael Dukakis won it by under 9 points in 1988. While in Summit County, home to Akron, he improved on Clinton's result by 2.35 percent and the margin by 1 percent, at 9.5 percent it was still a far cry from Obama's 17-percent margin in 2008, and second-worst for Democrats since 1988. In Stark County, home to Canton, he improved on Clinton's result by 1.25 percent, but his 1.35% worse losing margin of 18.51 percent was a 36-year low for Democrats, after Walter Mondale lost it by 20.18 percent in 1984.

This was the first presidential election in which a candidate received more than 3 million votes in Ohio. Ohio is one of three states, the others being Iowa and Florida, that voted twice for Barack Obama and twice for Donald Trump. This ended Ohio's 14-election bellwether streak from 1964 to 2016.

Mahoning County

Trump:
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
Biden:
40-50%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
>=90% 2020 Presidential results in Mahoning County by precinct.svg

Mahoning County, anchored by the car-making town of Youngstown, voted Republican for the first time since Richard Nixon's landslide re-election in 1972. The slim victory by Trump marked a collapse in Democrats' support among white working-class voters, and tightened the President's grip on blue-collar white voters.

David Betras, who was Democratic chairman of Mahoning County until 2019, speculated on the disconnect between Democrats in Washington who focused messaging Trump's unfitness for office, his taxes and possible impeachment, and the concerns of blue-collar workers were supporting Trump for his trade war with China, regardless of economic pain caused by tariffs. [32]

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupBidenTrumpNo
Answer
 % of
Voters
Party
Democrat927131
Republican793N/A39
Independent4848430
Gender
Men3959247
Women5148153
Race
White 3960184
Black 918111
Latino 573943
Asian N/AN/AN/A1
Other485112
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men3365240
White women4455144
Black men861134
Black women93617
Latino men (of any race)N/AN/AN/A1
Latino women (of any race)603912
All other races504912
Age
18–24 years old554239
25–29 years old603376
30–39 years old5344315
40–49 years old4752116
50–64 years old4258N/A29
65 and older3762123
Sexual orientation
LGBT 821536
Heterosexual 4257194
First time voter
First time voter 455329
Everyone else4554191
Education
High school or less3564123
Some college education4256228
Associate degree 4454215
Bachelor's degree 5048221
Advanced degree6236214
Education by race/ethnicity
White college graduates5246230
White no college degree3167253
Non-white college graduates782114
Non-white no college degree7919112
Income
Under $30,0005346115
$30,000–49,9995246220
$50,000–99,9994355234
$100,000–199,9994158125
Over $200,000475037
Abortion should be
Legal in all cases7917421
Legal in most cases6534130
Illegal in most cases1386130
Illegal in all cases1089114
Region
Cleveland Area6039115
North4553225
West2672211
Columbus Area5445118
Cincinnati/Dayton Area4752121
Ohio Valley2871111
Source: CNN [33]

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. 1 2 "Some other candidate" with 3%
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 "Someone else" with 2%
  6. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 1%
  7. 1 2 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
  9. 1 2 "Some other candidate" with 2%
  10. 1 2 "Another candidate" with 1%
  11. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  12. Includes "Refused"
  13. "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  14. "Other" and would not vote with no voters
  15. "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  16. 1 2 "Other" and would not vote with 1%
  17. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  18. "Someone else" with 5%
  19. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  20. "Someone else" with 4%
  21. "Other and Undecided" with 8%
  22. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  23. "Other candidates" with 6%
  24. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  25. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  26. Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  27. 1 2 3 4 5 The poll below displays the results for voters who are sure how they will vote. This one incorporates the preferences of those who lean towards one of two candidates.
  28. 1 2 Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  29. "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  2. 1 2 The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  3. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. The Progressive Policy Institute endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  5. Progress Ohio exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  6. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization

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Further reading