2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee

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2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee
Flag of Tennessee.svg
←  2014 November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03) 2026  →
Turnout69.30% Increase2.svg [1] 33.33 pp
  Sen. Bill Hagerty official Senate portrait, 117th Congress (cropped).jpg Marquita Bradshaw at Morristown (cropped).jpg
Nominee Bill Hagerty Marquita Bradshaw
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,840,9261,040,691
Percentage62.20%35.16%
2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee results map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee by Congressional District.svg
2020 Tennessee U.S. senate election by state senate district.svg
2020 Tennessee senate election by state house district.svg
TN Senate 2020.svg
Hagerty:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Bradshaw:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data
U.S. senator before election

Lamar Alexander
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Bill Hagerty
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 3, 2020, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate. The 2020 U.S. presidential election and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives were also held, as well as the State Senate and State House elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander announced that he would not run for re-election on December 17, 2018. [2] The former United States Ambassador to Japan, Bill Hagerty won the open seat by a large margin defeating his Democratic opponent Marquita Bradshaw.

Contents

In the primary, President Donald Trump endorsed Hagerty. He ended up winning the Republican nomination, defeating orthopedic surgeon Manny Sethi and 13 others in the Republican primary. In the Democratic primary, environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw from Memphis defeated Robin Kimbrough Hayes, as well as 3 other candidates. Nine independent candidates also appeared on the general election ballot.

Bill Hagerty outperformed Donald Trump by almost 4% during the general election. This was because he did better in suburban, exurban, and urban areas across Tennessee.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

  • Cliff Adkins [5]
  • Natisha Brooks [5]
  • Byron Bush, dentist [6]
  • Roy Dale Cope, small business owner and pharmacist [7] [8]
  • Terry Dicus, attorney [8]
  • Tom Emerson Jr., Tea Party candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 [9]
  • George Flinn Jr., former Shelby County commissioner, Nixon Administration Official, physician, engineer, businessman, and Republican candidate in Tennessee's 8th congressional district in 2016 and 2018 [10]
  • Jon Henry, U.S. Marine Corps veteran [10]
  • Kent Morrell, business owner [10]
  • Glen Neal Jr., retired public servant [10]
  • John Osborne, real estate agent and business owner [10]
  • Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver [11]
  • David Schuster, U.S. Navy veteran [9]
  • Manny Sethi, orthopedic surgeon, director of the Vanderbilt Orthopedic Institute Center for Health Policy and founder and president of the non-profit Healthy Tennessee [12]

Disqualified from the primary ballot

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Bill Hagerty

Federal officials

Governors

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Manny Sethi

Federal officials

Governors

State officials

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		George FlinnMark GreenBill HagertyBill HaslamManny SethiOtherUndecided
JMC Analytics and Polling [50] July 18–19, 2020600 (LV)±  4.0%5%–36%–32%9%20%
The Trafalgar Group [51] July 6–8, 20201,062 (LV)±  2.92%4%–42%–39%2%13%
Victory Phones [52] [upper-alpha 1] June 30 – July 1, 2020800 (LV)±  3.46%6%–33%–31%–30%
The Tarrance Group [53] [upper-alpha 2] June 28–30, 2020651 (LV)±  4.0%5%–46%–29%2% [lower-alpha 2] 18%
Victory Phones [52] [upper-alpha 1] June 2, 2020– [lower-alpha 3] –––27%–11%––
July 11, 2019Green and Haslam announce they will not run
Triton/Tennessee Star [54] April 13–16, 20191,003 (LV)± 3.1%–30%–39%––≈30%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Hagerty 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Sethi 40-50% 50-60% Tennessee U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  Hagerty
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Sethi
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [55]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Bill Hagerty 331,267 50.75%
Republican Manny Sethi 257,22339.41%
Republican George Flinn, Jr.22,4543.44%
Republican Jon Henry8,1041.24%
Republican Natisha Brooks8,0721.24%
Republican Byron Bush5,4200.83%
Republican Clifford Adkins5,3160.81%
Republican Terry Dicus2,2790.35%
Republican Tom Emerson, Jr.2,2520.35%
Republican David Schuster2,0450.31%
Republican John Osborne1,8770.29%
Republican Roy Dale Cope1,7910.27%
Republican Kent Morrell1,7690.27%
Republican Aaron Pettigrew1,6220.25%
Republican Glen Neal, Jr.1,2330.19%
Total votes652,724 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

  • Gary G. Davis, small business owner, baker, pilot, and perennial candidate [58]
  • Robin Kimbrough Hayes, attorney and Christian minister [59]
  • James Mackler, attorney, U.S. Army veteran and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 [3] [60]
  • Mark Pickrell, entrepreneur, attorney and Baptist deacon [61]

Disqualified from the primary ballot

  • Tharon Chandler, journalist, economist, and conservationist [62]

Withdrawn

  • Diana C. Onyejiaka, college professor and consultant [63]

Declined

Endorsements

James Mackler

Politicians

Organizations

Marquita Bradshaw

Organizations

Results

Results by county: Bradshaw 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% Hayes 20-30% 30-40% Mackler 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% Davis 20-30% 30-40% Mackler/Davis tie 20-30% Tennessee U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  Bradshaw
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Hayes
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Mackler
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Davis
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
Mackler/Davis tie
  •   20–30%
Democratic primary results [66]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 117,962 35.51%
Democratic Robin Kimbrough Hayes88,49226.64%
Democratic James Mackler78,96623.77%
Democratic Gary G. Davis30,7589.26%
Democratic Mark Pickrell16,0454.83%
Total votes332,223 100.00%

Independents

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [81] Safe ROctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [82] Safe ROctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [83] Safe RNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [84] Safe RNovember 30, 2020
Politico [85] Safe RNovember 2, 2020
RCP [86] Likely ROctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [87] Safe RNovember 3, 2020
538 [88] Safe RNovember 2, 2020
Economist [89] Safe RNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Bill Hagerty (R)

Federal officials

Governors

State officials

Local officials

  • Roane County Commissioner Randy Ellis [94]
  • Sandy Still [94]
  • Cary Vaughn [94]

Individuals

Organizations

Marquita Bradshaw (D)

Federal officials

Notable Individuals

Organizations

Unions

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Hagerty (R)		Marquita
Bradshaw (D)		OtherUndecided
Swayable [118] October 23 – November 1, 2020431 (LV)± 6.2%61%39%––
Cygnal [119] October 20–22, 2020610 (LV)± 3.97%56%36%1% [lower-alpha 4] 7%
Hypothetical polling

with Bill Hagerty and James Mackler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Hagerty (R)		James
Mackler (D)		Undecided
Mason-Dixon [120] January 28–30, 2020625 (RV)± 4%55%33%12%

with Manny Sethi and James Mackler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Manny
Sethi (R)		James
Mackler (D)		Undecided
Mason-Dixon [120] January 28–30, 2020625 (RV)± 4%46%35%19%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Cygnal [119] October 20–22, 2020610 (LV)± 3.97%58%38%4%
East Tennessee State University [121] April 22 – May 1, 2020536 (LV)–43%26%31% [lower-alpha 5]

Results

2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee [122]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Bill Hagerty 1,840,926 62.20% +0.33%
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 1,040,69135.16%+3.29%
Independent Elizabeth McLeod16,6520.56%N/A
Independent Yomi Faparusi10,7270.36%N/A
Independent Stephen Hooper9,6090.32%N/A
Independent Kacey Morgan (withdrawn)9,5980.32%N/A
Independent Ronnie Henley8,4780.30%N/A
Independent Aaron James7,2030.29%N/A
Independent Eric William Stansberry6,7810.23%N/A
Independent Dean Hill4,8720.16%N/A
Independent Jeffrey Grunau4,1600.14%N/A
Write-in 640.00%±0.00%
Total votes2,959,761 100.00%
Republican hold

By county

County [123] Bill Hagerty
Republican		Marquita Bradshaw
Democratic		Other votesTotal
votes
 %# %# %#
Anderson 66.54%22,98831.32%10,8202.14%74034,548
Bedford 76.68%13,92020.98%3,8082.34%42518,153
Benton 78.22%5,46219.16%1,3382.62%1836,983
Bledsoe 81.49%4,46016.41%8982.10%1155,473
Blount 73.27%47,39124.66%15,9502.07%1,33864,679
Bradley 77.62%34,26219.74%8,7162.64%1,16544,143
Campbell 82.53%11,61015.45%2,1732.02%28414,067
Cannon 79.61%4,90417.94%1,1052.45%1516,160
Carroll 77.78%8,89919.98%2,2862.24%25611,441
Carter 80.02%18,59317.76%4,1272.22%51423,234
Cheatham 72.19%14,09425.40%4,9592.41%47019,523
Chester 80.22%5,95117.59%1,3052.19%1627,418
Claiborne 82.26%10,11615.95%1,9621.79%22012,298
Clay 78.29%2,52519.10%6162.61%843,225
Cocke 81.13%11,28416.01%2,2272.86%39713,908
Coffee 74.38%17,60722.03%5,2153.59%84923,671
Crockett 77.42%4,45520.68%1,1901.90%1095,754
Cumberland 78.97%24,41219.11%5,9081.92%59330,913
Davidson 35.20%106,66461.04%184,9723.76%11,402303,038
Decatur 80.87%4,07516.21%8172.92%1475,039
DeKalb 78.01%6,16219.29%1,5242.70%2137,899
Dickson 72.88%17,21423.52%5,5563.60%85123,621
Dyer 78.34%11,23719.06%2,7342.60%37214,343
Fayette 70.67%15,41426.67%5,8182.66%57921,811
Fentress 85.37%7,06612.78%1,0561.85%1558,277
Franklin 74.02%13,49024.06%4,3841.92%35018,224
Gibson 73.53%15,58322.97%4,8673.50%74221,192
Giles 74.70%9,31322.68%2,8282.62%32612,467
Grainger 84.90%8,13113.27%1,2711.83%1759,577
Greene 79.82%21,90417.51%4,8042.67%73427,442
Grundy 81.06%4,37316.46%8882.48%1345,395
Hamblen 77.30%18,18320.46%4,8132.24%52823,524
Hamilton 56.29%95,10541.79%70,6081.92%3,252168,965
Hancock 86.39%2,15912.04%3011.57%392,499
Hardeman 58.68%5,37737.67%3,4523.65%3349,163
Hardin 82.95%9,22114.38%1,5992.67%29611,116
Hawkins 82.06%19,12315.66%3,6492.28%53323,305
Haywood 46.14%3,29751.74%3,6972.12%1527,146
Henderson 82.73%9,58515.48%1,7931.79%20811,586
Henry 75.40%10,59521.16%2,9733.44%48414,052
Hickman 76.90%7,28420.31%1,9242.79%2649,472
Houston 72.85%2,58622.82%8104.33%1543,550
Humphreys 73.39%5,75222.77%1,7853.84%3017,838
Jackson 77.47%3,83719.95%9882.58%1284,953
Jefferson 79.80%18,02417.87%4,0352.33%52722,586
Johnson 82.41%6,05815.17%1,1152.42%1787,351
Knox 59.27%128,66239.09%84,8471.64%3,570217,079
Lake 70.52%1,36125.54%4933.94%761,930
Lauderdale 65.44%5,55331.50%2,6733.06%2608,486
Lawrence 81.69%14,27015.85%2,7682.46%43117,469
Lewis 79.27%4,23418.52%9892.21%1185,341
Lincoln 79.55%12,01917.50%2,6442.95%44615,109
Loudon 76.40%21,89021.15%6,0612.45%70228,653
Macon 85.15%7,52212.50%1,1042.35%2088,834
Madison 57.70%24,06540.24%16,7812.06%86041,706
Marion 74.54%9,51723.15%2,9562.31%29512,768
Marshall 75.17%10,65022.26%3,1542.57%36414,168
Maury 68.49%31,51629.46%13,5572.05%94546,018
McMinn 80.28%17,77717.65%3,9082.07%45822,143
McNairy 80.77%8,83916.12%1,7643.11%34110,944
Meigs 80.62%4,19816.94%8822.44%1275,207
Monroe 80.86%16,33117.05%3,4442.09%42220,197
Montgomery 56.54%41,34239.21%28,6744.25%3,10573,121
Moore 82.04%2,82715.18%5232.78%963,446
Morgan 84.51%6,71513.67%1,0861.82%1457,946
Obion 79.58%10,23617.47%2,2472.95%38012,863
Overton 79.35%7,35118.39%1,7042.26%2099,264
Perry 81.68%2,61716.14%5172.18%703,204
Pickett 81.15%2,26417.03%4751.82%512,790
Polk 81.25%6,62017.19%1,4011.56%1278,148
Putnam 71.77%23,03125.76%8,2682.47%79232,091
Rhea 81.62%10,62116.14%2,1002.24%29113,012
Roane 75.21%19,03821.56%5,4583.23%81725,313
Robertson 73.94%23,87723.32%7,5302.74%88632,293
Rutherford 58.11%80,61038.77%53,7823.12%4,323138,715
Scott 87.49%7,30710.09%8432.42%2028,352
Sequatchie 80.95%5,59816.67%1,1532.38%1646,915
Sevier 78.52%33,53118.58%7,9342.90%1,23842,703
Shelby 36.12%135,04361.05%228,2802.83%10,600373,923
Smith 78.77%6,61017.79%1,4933.44%2888,391
Stewart 79.07%4,69718.10%1,0752.83%1685,940
Sullivan 76.46%55,50621.64%15,7101.90%1,37572,591
Sumner 70.70%63,03126.78%23,8782.52%2,24289,151
Tipton 75.07%19,55422.21%5,7842.72%70926,047
Trousdale 75.28%2,74122.25%8102.47%903,641
Unicoi 79.32%6,26718.34%1,4492.34%1857,901
Union 83.67%6,36514.29%1,0872.04%1557,606
Van Buren 79.93%2,15517.36%4682.71%732,696
Warren 73.68%10,99822.85%3,4103.47%51814,926
Washington 68.20%39,51629.37%17,0212.43%1,40857,945
Wayne 86.75%5,35110.91%6732.34%1446,168
Weakley 75.90%10,13120.12%2,6863.98%53113,348
White 80.96%9,47517.02%1,9922.02%23711,704
Williamson 66.21%91,15531.55%43,4322.24%3,080137,667
Wilson 69.44%50,59727.53%20,0593.03%2,20972,865

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Hagerty won 7 of 9 congressional districts. [124]

DistrictHagertyBradshawRepresentative
1st 77%21% Phil Roe
Diana Harshbarger
2nd 66%32% Tim Burchett
3rd 67%31% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 69%29% Scott DesJarlais
5th 39%57% Jim Cooper
6th 74%24% John W. Rose
7th 69%28% Mark E. Green
8th 68%30% David Kustoff
9th 21%76% Steve Cohen

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "One of the other candidates" with 2%
  3. ↑ Not yet released
  4. ↑ "Third-party candidate" with 1%
  5. ↑ "Does not matter" with 26%; unsure with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 Poll conducted for the Sethi campaign.
  2. ↑ Poll conducted for the Hagerty campaign.

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The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Marquita Bradshaw</span> American environmentalist and political candidate (born 1974)

Marquita Bradshaw is an American environmentalist, activist, and political candidate. She was the Democratic nominee in the 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee, the first African American woman to win a major political party nomination in any statewide race in Tennessee. Bradshaw lost the general election to Republican Bill Hagerty.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Tennessee elections</span>

Tennessee state elections in 2020 were held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Primary elections for the United States Senate, United States House of Representatives, Tennessee Senate, and Tennessee House of Representatives, as well as various judicial retention elections, were held on August 6, 2020.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee</span>

The 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Tennessee. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn will face off against state representative Gloria Johnson. This is the first all-woman general election for a Tennessee senate seat.

References

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  56. ↑ Sainz, Adrian; Mattise, Jonathan (August 7, 2020). "Bradshaw overcomes odds to win Tenn. Senate nomination". ABC News . Associated Press. Archived from the original on January 12, 2021. Retrieved August 26, 2020. The progressive's win over a field of Democrats, including establishment choice James Mackler, has drawn national attention in a Senate race where the focus had been on a contentious GOP primary. Bradshaw is the first Black woman nominated for statewide office by either major political party in Tennessee, according to the state Democratic Party.
  57. ↑ Elliott, Stephen (October 3, 2019). "Another Democrat Joins U.S. Senate Race". Nashville Scene. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved August 26, 2020. Bradshaw's family members are no strangers to politics (though this is her first run for office) — her uncle is state Rep. John DeBerry (D-Memphis), and her mother Doris has been fighting for environmental justice in Memphis for decades. Marquita Bradshaw was by her parents' side for much of the fight against a government-owned Superfund site in Memphis.
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  96. ↑ Ed Markey [@EdMarkey] (October 11, 2020). ".@Bradshaw2020 is a working class, single mom and the first Black woman to run for Senate in Tennessee. She has spent her life fighting for her community and working to bring social, racial, economic, and environmental justice to all. Now, she's taking that fight to Washington" (Tweet). Retrieved October 11, 2020– via Twitter.
  97. ↑ Bradshaw, Marquita [@Bradshaw2020] (September 28, 2020). "#As my sister in service and fellow history-maker, I am so proud to have the support of Rep. @AyannaPressley. It couldn't be more clear– Tennesseans deserve a fearless leader. Let's shock the world, y'all! Join #TeamBradshaw Rightwards arrow Chip in $20.20 today" (Tweet). Retrieved September 29, 2020– via Twitter.
  98. ↑ Bernie Sanders [@BernieSanders] (September 21, 2020). "I'm proud to endorse @Bradshaw2020's grassroots campaign. Marquita is building a strong grassroots movement by standing up to big-money politics and challenging the status quo. I believe her bold, progressive movement, powered by the people, can make history in Tennessee" (Tweet). Retrieved September 21, 2020– via Twitter.
  99. ↑ "Endorsements | Warren Democrats". Elizabeth Warren . Archived from the original on November 29, 2021. Retrieved September 15, 2020.
  100. ↑ "Rep. Charles Booker on Marquita Bradshaw". YouTube .
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  102. ↑ Bush, Cori [@CoriBush] (August 21, 2020). "#BREAKING: I'm proud to announce my official endorsements of @AdrBell, @PamKeithFL, @paulajean2020, @Bradshaw2020, and Sen. @EdMarkey!" (Tweet). Retrieved September 23, 2020– via Twitter.
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  104. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Daisha McBride, Margo Price, Many More to Play Musicians for Marquita". September 30, 2020.
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  108. ↑ "Sarah Silverman interviews Marquita Bradshaw (US Senate candidate, TN)". YouTube .
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  111. ↑ "DSA 🌹 (@DemSocialists): DSA is proud to endorse Marquita Bradshaw for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on October 19, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  112. ↑ "Candidate Endorsements • Friends of the Earth Action". Friends of the Earth Action. August 25, 2017. Archived from the original on May 19, 2020. Retrieved September 23, 2020.
  113. ↑ "National Women's Political Caucus on Twitter: "🚨Endorsement Alert🚨 Senate: @Bradshaw2020, TN House: @VoteJackie4NY, NY-02 @StricklandforWA, WA-10 #WomenLead... "". Archived from the original on August 27, 2020. Retrieved August 27, 2020.
  114. ↑ "TN-Sen: Sierra Club Endorses Environmental Justice Champion Marquita Bradshaw". Sierra Club. September 8, 2020. Archived from the original on October 23, 2020. Retrieved September 23, 2020.
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  116. ↑ "Working Families Party (@WorkingFamilies): In a year of crisis, @Bradshaw2020 is a visionary leader fighting for a nation that cares all our people, and solutions big enough to meet the moment". Archived from the original on November 2, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  117. ↑ "November 3rd General Election Endorsements". Tennessee AFL-CIO Labor Council. August 13, 2020. Archived from the original on November 1, 2020. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  118. ↑ Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  119. 1 2 Cygnal
  120. 1 2 Mason-Dixon
  121. ↑ East Tennessee State University Archived May 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  122. ↑ State of Tennessee General Election Results, November 3, 2020, Results By Office (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. December 2, 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 2, 2020. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
  123. ↑ "Tennessee 2020 Senate Results by County" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved April 15, 2023.
  124. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

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