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Turnout | 69.30% [1] 33.33 pp | ||||||||||||||||
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Hagerty: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bradshaw: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Tennessee |
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Government |
The 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 3, 2020, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate. The 2020 U.S. presidential election and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives were also held, as well as the State Senate and State House elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander announced that he would not run for re-election on December 17, 2018. [2] The former United States Ambassador to Japan, Bill Hagerty won the open seat by a large margin defeating his Democratic opponent Marquita Bradshaw.
In the primary, President Donald Trump endorsed Hagerty. He ended up winning the Republican nomination, defeating orthopedic surgeon Manny Sethi and 13 others in the Republican primary. In the Democratic primary, environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw from Memphis defeated Robin Kimbrough Hayes, as well as 3 other candidates. Nine independent candidates also appeared on the general election ballot.
Bill Hagerty outperformed Donald Trump by almost 4% during the general election. This was because he did better in suburban, exurban, and urban areas across Tennessee.
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Federal officials
Governors
State officials
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | George Flinn | Mark Green | Bill Hagerty | Bill Haslam | Manny Sethi | Other | Undecided | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics and Polling [50] | July 18–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 5% | – | 36% | – | 32% | 9% | 20% | ||
The Trafalgar Group [51] | July 6–8, 2020 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 2.92% | 4% | – | 42% | – | 39% | 2% | 13% | ||
Victory Phones [52] [upper-alpha 1] | June 30 – July 1, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 6% | – | 33% | – | 31% | – | 30% | ||
The Tarrance Group [53] [upper-alpha 2] | June 28–30, 2020 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 5% | – | 46% | – | 29% | 2% [lower-alpha 2] | 18% | ||
Victory Phones [52] [upper-alpha 1] | June 2, 2020 | – [lower-alpha 3] | – | – | – | 27% | – | 11% | – | – | ||
Green and Haslam announce they will not run | ||||||||||||
Triton/Tennessee Star [54] | April 13–16, 2019 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 3.1% | – | 30% | – | 39% | – | – | ≈30% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Bill Hagerty | 331,267 | 50.75% | |
Republican | Manny Sethi | 257,223 | 39.41% | |
Republican | George Flinn, Jr. | 22,454 | 3.44% | |
Republican | Jon Henry | 8,104 | 1.24% | |
Republican | Natisha Brooks | 8,072 | 1.24% | |
Republican | Byron Bush | 5,420 | 0.83% | |
Republican | Clifford Adkins | 5,316 | 0.81% | |
Republican | Terry Dicus | 2,279 | 0.35% | |
Republican | Tom Emerson, Jr. | 2,252 | 0.35% | |
Republican | David Schuster | 2,045 | 0.31% | |
Republican | John Osborne | 1,877 | 0.29% | |
Republican | Roy Dale Cope | 1,791 | 0.27% | |
Republican | Kent Morrell | 1,769 | 0.27% | |
Republican | Aaron Pettigrew | 1,622 | 0.25% | |
Republican | Glen Neal, Jr. | 1,233 | 0.19% | |
Total votes | 652,724 | 100.00% |
Politicians
Organizations
Organizations
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Marquita Bradshaw | 117,962 | 35.51% | |
Democratic | Robin Kimbrough Hayes | 88,492 | 26.64% | |
Democratic | James Mackler | 78,966 | 23.77% | |
Democratic | Gary G. Davis | 30,758 | 9.26% | |
Democratic | Mark Pickrell | 16,045 | 4.83% | |
Total votes | 332,223 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [81] | Safe R | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections [82] | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [83] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [84] | Safe R | November 30, 2020 |
Politico [85] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
RCP [86] | Likely R | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ [87] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
538 [88] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
Economist [89] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
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Governors
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
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Notable Individuals
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Unions
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Bill Hagerty (R) | Marquita Bradshaw (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable [118] | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 431 (LV) | ± 6.2% | 61% | 39% | – | – |
Cygnal [119] | October 20–22, 2020 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.97% | 56% | 36% | 1% [lower-alpha 4] | 7% |
with Bill Hagerty and James Mackler
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Bill Hagerty (R) | James Mackler (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon [120] | January 28–30, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4% | 55% | 33% | 12% |
with Manny Sethi and James Mackler
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Manny Sethi (R) | James Mackler (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon [120] | January 28–30, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4% | 46% | 35% | 19% |
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal [119] | October 20–22, 2020 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.97% | 58% | 38% | 4% |
East Tennessee State University [121] | April 22 – May 1, 2020 | 536 (LV) | – | 43% | 26% | 31% [lower-alpha 5] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Bill Hagerty | 1,840,926 | 62.20% | +0.33% | |
Democratic | Marquita Bradshaw | 1,040,691 | 35.16% | +3.29% | |
Independent | Elizabeth McLeod | 16,652 | 0.56% | N/A | |
Independent | Yomi Faparusi | 10,727 | 0.36% | N/A | |
Independent | Stephen Hooper | 9,609 | 0.32% | N/A | |
Independent | Kacey Morgan (withdrawn) | 9,598 | 0.32% | N/A | |
Independent | Ronnie Henley | 8,478 | 0.30% | N/A | |
Independent | Aaron James | 7,203 | 0.29% | N/A | |
Independent | Eric William Stansberry | 6,781 | 0.23% | N/A | |
Independent | Dean Hill | 4,872 | 0.16% | N/A | |
Independent | Jeffrey Grunau | 4,160 | 0.14% | N/A | |
Write-in | 64 | 0.00% | ±0.00% | ||
Total votes | 2,959,761 | 100.00% | |||
Republican hold |
County [123] | Bill Hagerty Republican | Marquita Bradshaw Democratic | Other votes | Total votes | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% | # | % | # | % | # | ||
Anderson | 66.54% | 22,988 | 31.32% | 10,820 | 2.14% | 740 | 34,548 |
Bedford | 76.68% | 13,920 | 20.98% | 3,808 | 2.34% | 425 | 18,153 |
Benton | 78.22% | 5,462 | 19.16% | 1,338 | 2.62% | 183 | 6,983 |
Bledsoe | 81.49% | 4,460 | 16.41% | 898 | 2.10% | 115 | 5,473 |
Blount | 73.27% | 47,391 | 24.66% | 15,950 | 2.07% | 1,338 | 64,679 |
Bradley | 77.62% | 34,262 | 19.74% | 8,716 | 2.64% | 1,165 | 44,143 |
Campbell | 82.53% | 11,610 | 15.45% | 2,173 | 2.02% | 284 | 14,067 |
Cannon | 79.61% | 4,904 | 17.94% | 1,105 | 2.45% | 151 | 6,160 |
Carroll | 77.78% | 8,899 | 19.98% | 2,286 | 2.24% | 256 | 11,441 |
Carter | 80.02% | 18,593 | 17.76% | 4,127 | 2.22% | 514 | 23,234 |
Cheatham | 72.19% | 14,094 | 25.40% | 4,959 | 2.41% | 470 | 19,523 |
Chester | 80.22% | 5,951 | 17.59% | 1,305 | 2.19% | 162 | 7,418 |
Claiborne | 82.26% | 10,116 | 15.95% | 1,962 | 1.79% | 220 | 12,298 |
Clay | 78.29% | 2,525 | 19.10% | 616 | 2.61% | 84 | 3,225 |
Cocke | 81.13% | 11,284 | 16.01% | 2,227 | 2.86% | 397 | 13,908 |
Coffee | 74.38% | 17,607 | 22.03% | 5,215 | 3.59% | 849 | 23,671 |
Crockett | 77.42% | 4,455 | 20.68% | 1,190 | 1.90% | 109 | 5,754 |
Cumberland | 78.97% | 24,412 | 19.11% | 5,908 | 1.92% | 593 | 30,913 |
Davidson | 35.20% | 106,664 | 61.04% | 184,972 | 3.76% | 11,402 | 303,038 |
Decatur | 80.87% | 4,075 | 16.21% | 817 | 2.92% | 147 | 5,039 |
DeKalb | 78.01% | 6,162 | 19.29% | 1,524 | 2.70% | 213 | 7,899 |
Dickson | 72.88% | 17,214 | 23.52% | 5,556 | 3.60% | 851 | 23,621 |
Dyer | 78.34% | 11,237 | 19.06% | 2,734 | 2.60% | 372 | 14,343 |
Fayette | 70.67% | 15,414 | 26.67% | 5,818 | 2.66% | 579 | 21,811 |
Fentress | 85.37% | 7,066 | 12.78% | 1,056 | 1.85% | 155 | 8,277 |
Franklin | 74.02% | 13,490 | 24.06% | 4,384 | 1.92% | 350 | 18,224 |
Gibson | 73.53% | 15,583 | 22.97% | 4,867 | 3.50% | 742 | 21,192 |
Giles | 74.70% | 9,313 | 22.68% | 2,828 | 2.62% | 326 | 12,467 |
Grainger | 84.90% | 8,131 | 13.27% | 1,271 | 1.83% | 175 | 9,577 |
Greene | 79.82% | 21,904 | 17.51% | 4,804 | 2.67% | 734 | 27,442 |
Grundy | 81.06% | 4,373 | 16.46% | 888 | 2.48% | 134 | 5,395 |
Hamblen | 77.30% | 18,183 | 20.46% | 4,813 | 2.24% | 528 | 23,524 |
Hamilton | 56.29% | 95,105 | 41.79% | 70,608 | 1.92% | 3,252 | 168,965 |
Hancock | 86.39% | 2,159 | 12.04% | 301 | 1.57% | 39 | 2,499 |
Hardeman | 58.68% | 5,377 | 37.67% | 3,452 | 3.65% | 334 | 9,163 |
Hardin | 82.95% | 9,221 | 14.38% | 1,599 | 2.67% | 296 | 11,116 |
Hawkins | 82.06% | 19,123 | 15.66% | 3,649 | 2.28% | 533 | 23,305 |
Haywood | 46.14% | 3,297 | 51.74% | 3,697 | 2.12% | 152 | 7,146 |
Henderson | 82.73% | 9,585 | 15.48% | 1,793 | 1.79% | 208 | 11,586 |
Henry | 75.40% | 10,595 | 21.16% | 2,973 | 3.44% | 484 | 14,052 |
Hickman | 76.90% | 7,284 | 20.31% | 1,924 | 2.79% | 264 | 9,472 |
Houston | 72.85% | 2,586 | 22.82% | 810 | 4.33% | 154 | 3,550 |
Humphreys | 73.39% | 5,752 | 22.77% | 1,785 | 3.84% | 301 | 7,838 |
Jackson | 77.47% | 3,837 | 19.95% | 988 | 2.58% | 128 | 4,953 |
Jefferson | 79.80% | 18,024 | 17.87% | 4,035 | 2.33% | 527 | 22,586 |
Johnson | 82.41% | 6,058 | 15.17% | 1,115 | 2.42% | 178 | 7,351 |
Knox | 59.27% | 128,662 | 39.09% | 84,847 | 1.64% | 3,570 | 217,079 |
Lake | 70.52% | 1,361 | 25.54% | 493 | 3.94% | 76 | 1,930 |
Lauderdale | 65.44% | 5,553 | 31.50% | 2,673 | 3.06% | 260 | 8,486 |
Lawrence | 81.69% | 14,270 | 15.85% | 2,768 | 2.46% | 431 | 17,469 |
Lewis | 79.27% | 4,234 | 18.52% | 989 | 2.21% | 118 | 5,341 |
Lincoln | 79.55% | 12,019 | 17.50% | 2,644 | 2.95% | 446 | 15,109 |
Loudon | 76.40% | 21,890 | 21.15% | 6,061 | 2.45% | 702 | 28,653 |
Macon | 85.15% | 7,522 | 12.50% | 1,104 | 2.35% | 208 | 8,834 |
Madison | 57.70% | 24,065 | 40.24% | 16,781 | 2.06% | 860 | 41,706 |
Marion | 74.54% | 9,517 | 23.15% | 2,956 | 2.31% | 295 | 12,768 |
Marshall | 75.17% | 10,650 | 22.26% | 3,154 | 2.57% | 364 | 14,168 |
Maury | 68.49% | 31,516 | 29.46% | 13,557 | 2.05% | 945 | 46,018 |
McMinn | 80.28% | 17,777 | 17.65% | 3,908 | 2.07% | 458 | 22,143 |
McNairy | 80.77% | 8,839 | 16.12% | 1,764 | 3.11% | 341 | 10,944 |
Meigs | 80.62% | 4,198 | 16.94% | 882 | 2.44% | 127 | 5,207 |
Monroe | 80.86% | 16,331 | 17.05% | 3,444 | 2.09% | 422 | 20,197 |
Montgomery | 56.54% | 41,342 | 39.21% | 28,674 | 4.25% | 3,105 | 73,121 |
Moore | 82.04% | 2,827 | 15.18% | 523 | 2.78% | 96 | 3,446 |
Morgan | 84.51% | 6,715 | 13.67% | 1,086 | 1.82% | 145 | 7,946 |
Obion | 79.58% | 10,236 | 17.47% | 2,247 | 2.95% | 380 | 12,863 |
Overton | 79.35% | 7,351 | 18.39% | 1,704 | 2.26% | 209 | 9,264 |
Perry | 81.68% | 2,617 | 16.14% | 517 | 2.18% | 70 | 3,204 |
Pickett | 81.15% | 2,264 | 17.03% | 475 | 1.82% | 51 | 2,790 |
Polk | 81.25% | 6,620 | 17.19% | 1,401 | 1.56% | 127 | 8,148 |
Putnam | 71.77% | 23,031 | 25.76% | 8,268 | 2.47% | 792 | 32,091 |
Rhea | 81.62% | 10,621 | 16.14% | 2,100 | 2.24% | 291 | 13,012 |
Roane | 75.21% | 19,038 | 21.56% | 5,458 | 3.23% | 817 | 25,313 |
Robertson | 73.94% | 23,877 | 23.32% | 7,530 | 2.74% | 886 | 32,293 |
Rutherford | 58.11% | 80,610 | 38.77% | 53,782 | 3.12% | 4,323 | 138,715 |
Scott | 87.49% | 7,307 | 10.09% | 843 | 2.42% | 202 | 8,352 |
Sequatchie | 80.95% | 5,598 | 16.67% | 1,153 | 2.38% | 164 | 6,915 |
Sevier | 78.52% | 33,531 | 18.58% | 7,934 | 2.90% | 1,238 | 42,703 |
Shelby | 36.12% | 135,043 | 61.05% | 228,280 | 2.83% | 10,600 | 373,923 |
Smith | 78.77% | 6,610 | 17.79% | 1,493 | 3.44% | 288 | 8,391 |
Stewart | 79.07% | 4,697 | 18.10% | 1,075 | 2.83% | 168 | 5,940 |
Sullivan | 76.46% | 55,506 | 21.64% | 15,710 | 1.90% | 1,375 | 72,591 |
Sumner | 70.70% | 63,031 | 26.78% | 23,878 | 2.52% | 2,242 | 89,151 |
Tipton | 75.07% | 19,554 | 22.21% | 5,784 | 2.72% | 709 | 26,047 |
Trousdale | 75.28% | 2,741 | 22.25% | 810 | 2.47% | 90 | 3,641 |
Unicoi | 79.32% | 6,267 | 18.34% | 1,449 | 2.34% | 185 | 7,901 |
Union | 83.67% | 6,365 | 14.29% | 1,087 | 2.04% | 155 | 7,606 |
Van Buren | 79.93% | 2,155 | 17.36% | 468 | 2.71% | 73 | 2,696 |
Warren | 73.68% | 10,998 | 22.85% | 3,410 | 3.47% | 518 | 14,926 |
Washington | 68.20% | 39,516 | 29.37% | 17,021 | 2.43% | 1,408 | 57,945 |
Wayne | 86.75% | 5,351 | 10.91% | 673 | 2.34% | 144 | 6,168 |
Weakley | 75.90% | 10,131 | 20.12% | 2,686 | 3.98% | 531 | 13,348 |
White | 80.96% | 9,475 | 17.02% | 1,992 | 2.02% | 237 | 11,704 |
Williamson | 66.21% | 91,155 | 31.55% | 43,432 | 2.24% | 3,080 | 137,667 |
Wilson | 69.44% | 50,597 | 27.53% | 20,059 | 3.03% | 2,209 | 72,865 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Hagerty won 7 of 9 congressional districts. [124]
District | Hagerty | Bradshaw | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 77% | 21% | Phil Roe |
Diana Harshbarger | |||
2nd | 66% | 32% | Tim Burchett |
3rd | 67% | 31% | Chuck Fleischmann |
4th | 69% | 29% | Scott DesJarlais |
5th | 39% | 57% | Jim Cooper |
6th | 74% | 24% | John W. Rose |
7th | 69% | 28% | Mark E. Green |
8th | 68% | 30% | David Kustoff |
9th | 21% | 76% | Steve Cohen |
Partisan clients
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Official campaign websites