2010 Tennessee gubernatorial election

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2010 Tennessee gubernatorial election
Flag of Tennessee.svg
  2006 November 2, 2010 2014  
Turnout41.32% Decrease2.svg [1] 8.65 pp
  Governor Bill Haslam crop.jpg MikeMcWherter(cropped).jpg
Nominee Bill Haslam Mike McWherter
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,041,545529,851
Percentage65.03%33.08%

2010 Tennessee gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2010 Tennessee Gubernatorial Election by congressional district.svg
Haslam:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
McWherter:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%

Governor before election

Phil Bredesen
Democratic

Elected Governor

Bill Haslam
Republican

The 2010 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010, to elect the next governor of Tennessee, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic governor Phil Bredesen was term-limited, and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Knoxville mayor and Republican nominee, Bill Haslam was elected with 65.0% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee Mike McWherter.

Contents

The primary election was held on August 5, 2010, with Haslam and McWherter winning their respective parties' nominations. [2]

Haslam received endorsements from former U.S. senator Howard Baker and Congressman Jimmy Duncan. [3] [4] The Tennessean wrote, "Haslam appears most likely to be able to ride Gov. Phil Bredesen's pro-business coattails, despite the different party affiliation." [4]

Haslam campaigned on his executive experience as both Knoxville's mayor and the president of a major company. His opponents attacked him as an oil executive, especially in the wake of price-gouging allegations levied against Pilot in the wake of the post-Hurricane Katrina fuel shortages, and criticized his refusal to release information related to his income while at Pilot. [5]

With this win, Haslam flipped the state into Republican control, with the state legislature also being controlled by Republicans. The last time Republicans held a government trifecta in the state was in 1869. [6] Ever since this election, Republicans have maintained their trifecta.

News organizations The Cook Political Report , [7] CQ Politics, [8] and The New York Times [9] rated the gubernatorial election as leaning Republican, while The Rothenberg Political Report rated it as "Republican favored," [10] RealClearPolitics [11] and Sabato's Crystal Ball [12] as "Likely Republican", and Rasmussen Reports as "Solid Republican." [13]

Republican primary

A recorded debate featuring 3 of the candidates, organized by campaign coordinator James Crenshaw, was held at the Scarett-Benett Center in Nashville, TN. [14]

From July 1, 2009, until January 15, 2010, Haslam collected $1.8 million, Ramsey raised $1,412,593 including a $200,000 loan, Wamp raised $1,373,078 including a $61,000 loan, and Gibbons raised $225,218.

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredBill
Haslam
Ron
Ramsey
Zach
Wamp
Undecided
Mason-Dixon [21] July 19–21, 201036%20%25%17%
WSMV TV Channel 4 [22] July 8, 201032%11%21%36%

Results

County results Tennessee Governor R Primary 2010.svg
County results
Republican primary results [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Bill Haslam341,22947.34%
Republican Zach Wamp210,33229.18%
Republican Ron Ramsey158,96022.05%
Republican Joe Kirkpatrick6,7750.94%
Republican Basil Marceaux3,5080.49%
Total votes720,804 100.00%

Democratic primary

From July 1, 2009, until January 15, 2010, State Senate Minority Leader Jim Kyle collected $741,485 including a $300,000 personal loan, McWherter raised $402,868, and McMillan raised $159,981. [24]

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mike McWherter 284,894 100.00%
Total votes284,894 100.00%

Independents

General election

Simultaneous Haslam and McWherter rallies before the Highlands Town Hall Debate 2010-gubernatorial-rallies-tn1.jpg
Simultaneous Haslam and McWherter rallies before the Highlands Town Hall Debate

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [36] Safe R (flip)October 14, 2010
Rothenberg [37] Safe R (flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [38] Safe R (flip)November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [39] Likely R (flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics [40] Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mike
McWherter (D)
Bill
Haslam (R)
OtherUnde-
cided
MTSU (report)October 24, 2010635± 4%29%51%4%6%
MTSU (report)October 14, 2010635± 4%19%41.6%4%36%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 9, 2010500± 4.5%31%59%3%6%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 7, 2010500± 4.5%31%59%2%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)August 9, 2010500± 4.5%31%56%3%10%
Mason-Dixon (report)July 19–21, 2010625± 5.0%31%49%20%
WSMV-TV Channel 4 (report)July 8, 2010603± 4.0%34%60%6%
Rasmussen Reports (report)June 15, 2010500± 4.5%32%50%5%14%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 22, 2010500± 4.5%27%45%5%23%

Results

2010 Tennessee Gubernatorial County Flips.svg
2010 Tennessee gubernatorial election [41]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Bill Haslam 1,041,545 65.03% +35.83%
Democratic Mike McWherter 529,85133.08%−35.24%
Independent Carl Twofeathers Whitaker6,5360.41%N/A
Independent Brandon Dodds4,7280.29%N/A
Independent Bayron Binkley4,6630.29%N/A
Independent June Griffin2,5870.16%N/A
Independent Linda Kay Perry2,0570.13%N/A
Independent Howard M. Switzer1,8870.12%N/A
Independent Samuel David Duck1,7550.11%N/A
Independent Thomas Smith II1,2070.07%N/A
Independent Toni K. Hall9930.06%N/A
Independent David Gatchell8590.05%N/A
Independent Boyce T. McCall8280.05%N/A
Independent James Reesor8090.05%N/A
Independent Mike Knois6000.03%N/A
Independent Donald Ray McFolin5830.03%N/A
Independent Write-Ins (3 candidates)610.003%N/A
Majority511,69432.21%
Turnout 1,601,567
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

By county

County [42] Bill Haslam
Republican
Mike McWherter
Democratic
Other votes
 %# %# %#
Anderson 72.50%13,93824.89%4,7852.61%502
Bedford 69.50%6,80828.31%2,7732.20%215
Benton 51.36%2,59047.23%2,3821.41%71
Bledsoe 66.26%2,52731.83%1,2141.92%73
Blount 79.38%23,78618.19%5,4492.42%728
Bradley 82.10%17,52216.29%3,4771.61%344
Campbell 72.75%6,30924.78%2,1492.47%214
Cannon 61.51%2,41236.09%1,4152.40%94
Carroll 56.72%4,72441.83%3,4841.44%120
Carter 76.98%10,78321.43%3,0011.60%223
Cheatham 68.92%7,01729.16%2,9691.91%195
Chester 69.39%2,76328.80%1,1471.80%72
Claiborne 74.45%4,76822.85%1,4632.71%173
Clay 59.07%1,17938.98%7781.95%39
Cocke 75.69%6,38522.08%1,8632.24%188
Coffee 69.43%9,43628.49%3,8722.09%283
Crockett 64.49%2,81834.42%1,5041.10%48
Cumberland 77.71%15,55020.29%4,0611.98%399
Davidson 48.44%75,38149.11%76,4272.44%3,810
Decatur 56.31%1,82041.80%1,3511.89%61
DeKalb 58.40%2,87039.62%1,9471.98%97
Dickson 64.09%7,81234.04%4,1501.87%228
Dyer 66.48%6,57628.79%2,8474.72%467
Fayette 68.78%8,49029.71%3,6671.51%187
Fentress 71.44%3,63027.04%1,3741.51%77
Franklin 63.35%7,79234.73%4,2721.92%236
Gibson 57.57%8,66440.88%6,1521.55%233
Giles 60.25%4,93637.52%3,0742.22%183
Grainger 74.79%3,39922.75%1,0342.46%112
Greene 76.83%12,06621.113,3152.07324
Grundy 55.07%1,69342.03%1,2921.90%89
Hamblen 79.47%10,79819.19%2,6081.33%181
Hamilton 65.59%57,09032.81%28,5561.60%1,393
Hancock 73.25%92324.21%3052.54%32
Hardeman 50.45%3,25047.25%3,0442.28%148
Hardin 69.10%4,31528.98%1,8101.92%120
Hawkins 75.29%9,32022.76%2,8171.95%241
Haywood 45.70%2,46252.96%2,8531.34%72
Henderson 69.43%4,32828.73%1,7911.85%115
Henry 55.20%5,26143.33%4,1291.46%140
Hickman 59.80%3,15637.89%2,0001.85%122
Houston 47.90%1,01649.74%1,0552.36%50
Humphreys 53.62%2,68944.51%2,2321.88%94
Jackson 53.02%1,58744.54%1,3332.45%73
Jefferson 79.54%8,89518.24%2,0402.21%248
Johnson 75.59%3,45222.62%1,0331.80%82
Knox 81.07%84,91517.06%17,8691.87%1,958
Lake 47.38%66149.32%6883.35%46
Lauderdale 54.74%3,36943.64%2,6861.63%100
Lawrence 66.54%7,72232.00%3,7141.46%169
Lewis 63.42%2,23533.97%1,1972.61%92
Lincoln 72.30%6,19624.15%2,0703.55%304
Loudon 82.07%12,55215.78%2,4132.16%330
Macon 68.21%3,34929.84%1,4651.96%96
Madison 55.74%15,76243.20%12,2141.06%300
Marion 62.47%4,57935.69%2,6161.84%135
Marshall 63.50%4,81034.59%2,6201.93%145
Maury 65.50%15,19032.82%7,6121.67%389
McMinn 76.63%8,71121.66%2,4621.71%194
McNairy 64.05%4,35734.44%2,3431.51%103
Meigs 68.28%1,80429.52%7802.20%58
Monroe 75.02%7,79523.09%2,3991.88%196
Montgomery 61.80%19,22735.87%11,1592.33%726
Moore 68.59%1,43527.68%5793.73%78
Morgan 69.81%3,03227.33%1,1872.85%124
Obion 53.99%5,06343.21%4,0522.80%263
Overton 58.68%3,08839.24%2,0652.08%109
Perry 55.34%1,05741.83%7992.83%54
Pickett 66.20%1,42831.66%6832.13%46
Polk 64.86%2,56932.69%1,2952.45%97
Putnam 69.83%13,03128.44%5,3061.73%323
Rhea 76.06%5,45221.58%1,5472.35%169
Roane 73.79%11,52323.74%3,7072.36%385
Robertson 67.94%12,15130.28%5,4161.78%318
Rutherford 68.77%41,99929.33%17,9121.89%1,160
Scott 74.48%3,52223.41%1,1072.10%100
Sequatchie 70.74%2,49724.37%9661.89%96
Sevier 84.01%16,59213.63%2,6922.36%467
Shelby 46.74%107,22751.86%118,9771.39%3,200
Smith 58.36%3,36939.67%2,2901.98%114
Stewart 54.91%2,12043.05%7072.04%79
Sullivan 77.44%30,52921.20%8,3591.36%535
Sumner 73.17%32,54326.12%13,6722.31%1,209
Tipton 68.63%10,88029.69%4,7061.69%267
Trousdale 56.06%1,17041.93%8752.01%42
Unicoi 75.48%3,33422.66%1.0011.85%82
Union 75.15%2,86122.83%8692.02%77
Van Buren 57.29%93140.25%6542.46%40
Warren 59.61%5,74537.77%3,6402.62%253
Washington 76.95%22,40321.63%6,2961.42%415
Wayne 73.26%2,60625.13%8941.60%57
Weakley 51.76%4,89146.49%4,3931.74%165
White 64.94%4,54232.31%2,2602.75%192
Williamson 80.06%48,51818.29%11,0851.65%1,000
Wilson 72.88%25,21725.21%8,7241.91%659

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Related Research Articles

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Debates

Official campaign websites (Archived)