2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

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2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
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  Kelly Ayotte portrait (cropped).jpg Congressman Paul Hodes.JPG
Nominee Kelly Ayotte Paul Hodes
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote273,218167,545
Percentage60.09%36.85%
2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by county.svg
2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by municipality.svg
2010 new hampshire senate.svg
Ayotte:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Hodes:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Judd Gregg
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 2, 2010, alongside other midterm elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as to the United States House of Representatives. Primaries were held on September 14. Incumbent Senator Judd Gregg (R) retired instead of seeking a fourth term, and was succeeded by Kelly Ayotte, who won the open seat by over 23 points. This is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire. This was also the first open seat election in the state since 1992. With Democrat Jeanne Shaheen serving in the state's other Senate seat, New Hampshire became the first state in the union to be represented in the Senate simultaneously by two women of opposite parties.

Contents

Background

Gregg was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2004, and indicated that he would seek a fourth term in 2010. [1] New Hampshire trended Democratic in the 2006 and 2008 elections, with Republican incumbents losing both of the state's House seats and its other Senate seat to Democrats, but polling conducted in late December 2008 showed Gregg defeating both of the state's U.S. Representatives in a hypothetical match-up.

In February 2009, President Barack Obama offered, and Gregg accepted, nomination to the position of United States Secretary of Commerce. [2] New Hampshire's Democratic Governor John Lynch announced he would appoint Bonnie Newman, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for economic development in the Reagan administration, to serve as Senator for New Hampshire until the election in 2010. [2] Newman announced that she would not run for election in 2010, nor would she endorse any candidate in the race. [3]

On February 12, 2009, however, Gregg withdrew his nomination for Commerce Secretary. He cited "irresolvable conflicts" over policy related to the Commerce Department as the main reasons for his withdrawal, but also indicated support for President Obama. [4] Gregg continued to serve as a senator from New Hampshire, as he did not resign from the Senate during the nomination process. At the time of the withdrawal, Gregg indicated that he would not run for reelection in 2010. However, at a subsequent press conference, Gregg clarified that he would "probably not" run for reelection, leading to speculation that was not eliminating the possibility completely. [5] [6]

On April 1, 2009, Gregg reaffirmed that he would not run. [7]

Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Representative Paul Hodes began his Senate campaign. He was the only major announced candidate until Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced her bid for the Republican nomination in early July 2009. On November 9, 2009, Republican Ovide Lamontagne joined the race as well.

Republican primary

Candidates

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte
Ovide Lamontagne

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredKelly AyotteJim BenderBill BinnieOvide LamontagneUndecided/other
Tarrance Group [28] January 13–14, 201043%3%5%11%37%
Research 2000 [29] February 1–3, 201036%––4%27%33%
Public Policy Polling [30] April 21, 201043%11%19%5%21%
Magellan Strategies [31] May 28, 201038%4%29%9%15%
Public Policy Polling [32] July 23–25, 201047%6%14%8%20%
Magellan Strategies [33] September 1, 201034%13%17%21%15%
Public Policy Polling [34] September 11–12, 201037%12%13%30%5%
Magellan Strategies [35] September 12, 201035%10%14%31%10%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Ayotte--40-50% Ayotte--30-40% Lamontagne--30-40% Lamontagne--40-50% New Hampshire U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
  Ayotte—40–50%
  Ayotte—30–40%
  Lamontagne—30–40%
  Lamontagne—40–50%
Republican primary results [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kelly Ayotte 53,056 38.21%
Republican Ovide Lamontagne51,39737.01%
Republican Bill Binnie19,50814.05%
Republican Jim Bender12,6119.08%
Republican Dennis Lamare1,3881.00%
Republican Tom Alciere4990.36%
Republican Gerard Beloin4020.29%
Total votes138,861 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Hodes called himself a fiscal conservative, which was mocked by Ayotte in a TV ad. Hodes was criticized for supporting President Obama's Economic Recovery package, a carbon energy tax, and Affordable Care Act. [37] [38] [39] Hodes criticized Ayotte for numerous controversies. One ad questioned Ayotte's honesty in dealing with the Lakes Region Ponzi scheme which defrauded investors of almost $80 million. [40]

Ayotte was endorsed by the Concord Monitor and the Nashua Telegraph. [41]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [44] Lean ROctober 26, 2010
Rothenberg [45] Safe ROctober 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics [46] Lean ROctober 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [47] Likely ROctober 21, 2010
CQ Politics [48] Lean ROctober 26, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kelly Ayotte (R)Paul Hodes (D)OtherUndecided
Granite State Poll [49] June 24 – July 1, 2009558± 4.1%39%35%2%24%
Research 2000 [50] July 13 – 15, 2009600± 4.0%39%38%2%21%
Rasmussen Reports [51] September 14, 2009500± 4.5%46%38%5%12%
American Research Group [52] September 30, 2009566± 4.1%41%34%––25%
Granite State Poll [53] October 2, 2009503± 4.4%40%33%2%25%
American Research Group [54] December 29, 2009566± 4.1%43%36%––21%
Rasmussen Reports [55] January 12, 2010500± 4.5%49%40%3%8%
Granite State Poll [56] January 27 – February 3, 2010500± 4.4%41%33%1%25%
Research 2000 [29] February 1–3, 2010600± 4.0%46%39%––11%
Rasmussen Reports [57] February 10, 2010500± 4.5%46%39%3%13%
Rasmussen Reports [58] March 8, 2010500± 4.5%47%37%4%12%
Rasmussen Reports [59] April 7, 2010500± 4.5%50%35%4%11%
Public Policy Polling [60] April 17–18, 20101,474± 2.6%47%40%––13%
Granite State Poll [61] April 12–21, 2010512± 4.4%47%32%––21%
Rasmussen Reports [62] May 11, 2010500± 4.5%50%38%3%9%
Rasmussen Reports [63] July 12, 2010500± 4.5%49%37%7%7%
Public Policy Polling [64] July 23–25, 2010900± 3.26%45%42%––13%
WMUR Granite State Poll [65] July 19–27, 2010453± 4.4%45%37%1%17%
Rasmussen Reports [66] August 5, 2010500± 4.5%51%38%4%6%
Public Policy Polling [67] September 11–12, 20101,959± 2.2%47%43%––9%
Rasmussen Reports [63] September 15, 2010500± 4.5%51%44%1%4%
American Research Group [54] September 22–26, 2010800± 3.5%46%32%2%20%
American Research Group [54] October 3–5, 2010600± 4.0%47%42%4%7%
Rasmussen Reports [63] October 10, 2010750± 4.0%51%44%3%2%
WMUR/UNH [68] October 7–12, 2010709± 3.7%50%35%1%12%
Rasmussen Reports [69] October 27, 2010750± 4.0%56%41%2%1%
Public Policy Polling [70] October 27–29, 20101,308± 2.7%56%41%––3%
WMUR/UNH [71] October 27–30, 2010885± 3.3%54%36%2%8%
WMUR/UNH [71] October 31, 2010885± 3.3%55%32%2%2%
The Concord [72] October 31, 2010885± 3.3%56%32%2%4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll SourceDates
Administered		Sample
size		Margin of
Error		Paul
Hodes (D)		Jim
Bender (R)		OtherUndecided
WMUR Granite State Poll [65] July 19–27, 2010453± 4.4%39%36%--25%
Public Policy Polling [64] July 23–25, 2010900± 3.26%43%42%--16%
Rasmussen Reports [63] July 12, 2010500± 4.5%39%43%10%8%
Rasmussen Reports [62] May 11, 2010500± 4.5%41%39%8%13%
Granite State Poll [61] April 12–21, 2010512± 4.4%37%34%--29%
Public Policy Polling [60] April 17–18, 20101474± 2.6%43%39%--18%
Granite State Poll [56] January 27 – February 3, 2010500± 4.4%36%27%2%35%
Poll SourceDates
Administered		Sample
size		Margin of
Error		Paul
Hodes (D)		Bill
Binnie (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports [66] August 5, 2010500± 4.5%40%46%8%7%
WMUR Granite State Poll [65] July 19–27, 2010453± 4.4%38%41%--21%
Public Policy Polling [64] July 23–25, 2010900± 3.26%41%46%--13%
Rasmussen Reports [63] July 12, 2010500± 4.5%38%49%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports [73] May 11, 2010500± 4.5%37%49%6%8%
Granite State Poll [61] April 12–21, 2010512± 4.4%36%38%--26%
Public Policy Polling [60] April 17–18, 20101474± 2.6%42%45%--13%
Rasmussen Reports [59] April 7, 2010500± 4.5%37%49%4%10%
Rasmussen Reports [58] March 8, 2010500± 4.5%36%46%4%14%
Rasmussen Reports [74] February 10, 2010500± 4.5%41%42%3%13%
Research 2000 [29] February 1–3, 2010600± 4.0%45%35%--15%
Granite State Poll [56] January 27 – February 3, 2010500± 4.4%34%30%2%33%
Rasmussen Reports [55] January 12, 2010500± 4.5%43%37%5%15%
Poll SourceDates
Administered		Sample
size		Margin of
Error		Paul
Hodes (D)		Ovide
Lamontagne (R)		OtherUndecided
WMUR Granite State Poll [65] July 19–27, 2010453± 4.4%42%36%1%21%
Public Policy Polling [64] July 23–25, 2010900± 3.26%43%38%--18%
Rasmussen Reports [63] July 12, 2010500± 4.5%40%43%9%9%
Rasmussen Reports [62] May 11, 2010500± 4.5%43%38%8%11%
Granite State Poll [61] April 12–21, 2010512± 4.4%36%37%--26%
Public Policy Polling [60] April 17–18, 20101474± 2.6%44%37%--19%
Rasmussen Reports [59] April 7, 2010500± 4.5%39%44%7%11%
Rasmussen Reports [58] March 8, 2010500± 4.5%42%38%5%15%
Rasmussen Reports [57] February 10, 2010500± 4.5%44%38%4%13%
Research 2000 [29] February 1–3, 2010600± 4.0%46%36%--13%
Granite State Poll [56] January 27 – February 3, 2010500± 4.4%38%29%2%30%
Rasmussen Reports [75] January 12, 2010500± 4.5%45%38%6%11%
American Research Group [54] December 29, 2009566± 4.1%31%37%--32%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Kelly Ayotte (R)$4,403,599$3,397,934$1,005,664$26,944
Paul Hodes (D)$4,596,642$4,346,539$248,003$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [76]

Results

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2010 [77] [78]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Kelly Ayotte 273,218 60.09% −6.15%
Democratic Paul Hodes 167,54536.85%+3.10%
Independent Chris Booth9,1942.02%N/A
Libertarian Ken Blevens4,7531.04%+1.04%
Total votes454,710 100.0%
Republican hold

References

  1. ↑ "Gregg confirms 2010 bid for re-election: Calls Dem sweep 'repudiation' of Bush". FOS News. November 5, 2008. Archived from the original on May 25, 2011. Retrieved November 6, 2008.
  2. 1 2 "GOP's Gregg accepts commerce secretary post". CNN.com. February 3, 2009. Archived from the original on February 6, 2009.
  3. ↑ Rhee, Foon (February 3, 2009). "Newman named to replace Gregg". Boston Globe.
  4. ↑ "BREAKING: Gregg withdraws". CNN.com. February 12, 2009. Archived from the original on June 3, 2012. Retrieved February 12, 2009.
  5. ↑ "Judd Gregg withdraws as nominee for Commerce secretary, says he won't run in 2010". New Hampshire Union Leader . February 13, 2009. Archived from the original on October 28, 2011. Retrieved February 12, 2009.
  6. ↑ Martin Kady II & David Rogers (February 12, 2009). "'I couldn't be Judd Gregg'". Politico.
  7. ↑ J. Taylor Rushing (April 1, 2009). "Gregg says he definitely won't run again". The Hill . Archived from the original on April 5, 2009. Retrieved April 2, 2009.
  8. ↑ "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  9. ↑ Michael McCord (November 4, 2009). "Rye's Binnie makes official his run for U.S. Senate". Sea Coast Online. Archived from the original on May 25, 2010. Retrieved November 21, 2009.
  10. ↑ Kraushaar, Josh (November 8, 2009). "Lamontagne announces Senate campaign - The Scorecard". Politico. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  11. ↑ "Radio Ad: Judd Gregg Supports Kelly Ayotte in New Radio Spot". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  12. ↑ Palin endorses Ayotte, hits rivals in Senate race, Kevin Landrigan, The Nashua Telegraph, July 20, 2010
  13. ↑ "Kelly Ayotte Statement on Endorsement from Gov. Sarah Palin". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  14. ↑ "Kelly Ayotte". Tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  15. ↑ "John McCain Endorses Republican Senate Candidate Kelly Ayotte In Nashua, New Hampshire". YouTube. March 13, 2010. Archived from the original on December 15, 2021. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  16. ↑ "Candidate - William H. Zeliff, Jr". Our Campaigns. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Senator Warren Rudman Announces Support for Kelly Ayotte". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Former New Hampshire U.S. Marshal Joins Team Ayotte". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  19. ↑ "Niet compatibele browser". Facebook. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  20. ↑ "Rico Petrocelli Endorses Ayotte". RedHampshire.com. July 6, 2010. Archived from the original on August 5, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  21. ↑ "Senator Jim DeMint Endorses Ovide for Senate". Ovide for Senate. September 1, 2010. Retrieved September 16, 2010.
  22. ↑ McQuaid, Joseph W. (August 29, 2010). "Joseph W. McQuaid: Lamontagne for U.S. Senate". New Hampshire Union Leader . UnionLeader.com. Archived from the original on December 4, 2010. Retrieved September 16, 2010.
  23. ↑ "Candidate - Dan Quayle". Our Campaigns. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  24. ↑ "Ovide Lamontagne for U.S. Senate » Blog Archive". Ovide2010.com. June 10, 2010. Archived from the original on February 21, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  25. ↑ Tuck, Amos (March 18, 2010). "Gordon Humphrey endorses Ovide Lamontagne. John Babiarz endorses Jim Bender". RedHampshire.com. Archived from the original on January 3, 2011. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  26. ↑ "Former State Sen. Joe Kenney Endorses Ovide". RedHampshire.com. January 27, 2012. Archived from the original on January 4, 2011. Retrieved December 11, 2012.
  27. ↑ Zarrabizadeh, Payam. "Free Stuff". Laura Ingraham. Archived from the original on July 16, 2011. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  28. ↑ Tarrance Group
  29. 1 2 3 4 Research 2000
  30. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  31. ↑ Magellan Strategies Archived May 31, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  32. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  33. ↑ Magellan Strategies
  34. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  35. ↑ Magellan Strategies
  36. ↑ "Home - NHSOS" (PDF). www.sos.nh.gov. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 25, 2017. Retrieved April 13, 2018.
  37. ↑ "Hodes gets prize for funniest TV ads - NashuaTelegraph.com". Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2010.
  38. ↑ "Dem Paul Hodes In NH-SEN TV Ad: I'm A 'Fiscal Conservative' Video". Vodpod.com. Archived from the original on April 3, 2012. Retrieved December 11, 2012.
  39. ↑ Rayfield, Jillian (September 21, 2010). "Rove-Backed Group Attacks Hodes For 'Fiscal Conservative' Claim (VIDEO) | TPMDC". Tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com. Retrieved December 11, 2012.
  40. ↑ "Hodes launches 2nd attack ad against Ayotte - NashuaTelegraph.com". Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2010.
  41. ↑ "Kelly receives endorsements from Concord Monitor and Nashua Telegraph | Kelly Ayotte". Archived from the original on October 23, 2010. Retrieved October 24, 2010.
  42. ↑ Love, Norma (October 11, 2010). "NH's Hodes, Ayotte clash in 1st debate". The Boston Globe.
  43. ↑ Staff Writer. "Hodes, Ayotte debate in N.H. Senate race". Portsmouth Herald. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  44. ↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  45. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  46. ↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  47. ↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  48. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  49. ↑ Granite State Poll
  50. ↑ Research 2000
  51. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  52. ↑ American Research Group
  53. ↑ Granite State Poll
  54. 1 2 3 4 American Research Group
  55. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  56. 1 2 3 4 Granite State Poll
  57. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  58. 1 2 3 Rasmussen Reports
  59. 1 2 3 Rasmussen Reports
  60. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
  61. 1 2 3 4 Granite State Poll
  62. 1 2 3 Rasmussen Reports
  63. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Rasmussen Reports
  64. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
  65. 1 2 3 4 WMUR Granite State Poll
  66. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  67. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  68. ↑ WMUR/UNH
  69. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  70. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  71. 1 2 WMUR/UNH Archived March 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  72. ↑ The Concord Archived March 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  73. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  74. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  75. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  76. ↑ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for New Hampshire". fec.gov. Retrieved September 6, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  77. ↑ "New Hampshire Election Results". The New York Times.
  78. ↑ "2010 General Election". New Hampshire Department of State.

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