2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

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2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Flag of New Hampshire.svg
  2004 November 2, 2010 2016  
  Kelly Ayotte portrait (cropped).jpg Congressman Paul Hodes.JPG
Nominee Kelly Ayotte Paul Hodes
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote273,218167,545
Percentage60.09%36.85%

2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by county.svg
2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by municipality.svg
Ayotte:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Hodes:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Judd Gregg
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 2, 2010, alongside other midterm elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as to the United States House of Representatives. Primaries were held on September 14. Incumbent Senator Judd Gregg (R) retired instead of seeking a fourth term, and was succeeded by Kelly Ayotte, who won the open seat by over 23 points. This is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire. This was also the first open seat election in the state since 1992. With Democrat Jeanne Shaheen serving in the state's other Senate seat, New Hampshire became the first state in the union to be represented in the Senate simultaneously by two women of opposite parties.

Contents

Background

Gregg was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2004, and indicated that he would seek a fourth term in 2010. [1] New Hampshire trended Democratic in the 2006 and 2008 elections, with Republican incumbents losing both of the state's House seats and its other Senate seat to Democrats, but polling conducted in late December 2008 showed Gregg defeating both of the state's U.S. Representatives in a hypothetical match-up.

In February 2009, President Barack Obama offered, and Gregg accepted, nomination to the position of United States Secretary of Commerce. [2] New Hampshire's Democratic Governor John Lynch announced he would appoint Bonnie Newman, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for economic development in the Reagan administration, to serve as Senator for New Hampshire until the election in 2010. [2] Newman announced that she would not run for election in 2010, nor would she endorse any candidate in the race. [3]

On February 12, 2009, however, Gregg withdrew his nomination for Commerce Secretary. He cited "irresolvable conflicts" over policy related to the Commerce Department as the main reasons for his withdrawal, but also indicated support for President Obama. [4] Gregg continued to serve as a senator from New Hampshire, as he did not resign from the Senate during the nomination process. At the time of the withdrawal, Gregg indicated that he would not run for reelection in 2010. However, at a subsequent press conference, Gregg clarified that he would "probably not" run for reelection, leading to speculation that was not eliminating the possibility completely. [5] [6]

On April 1, 2009, Gregg reaffirmed that he would not run. [7]

Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Representative Paul Hodes began his Senate campaign. He was the only major announced candidate until Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced her bid for the Republican nomination in early July 2009. On November 9, 2009, Republican Ovide Lamontagne joined the race as well.

Republican primary

Candidates

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte
Ovide Lamontagne

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredKelly AyotteJim BenderBill BinnieOvide LamontagneUndecided/other
Tarrance Group January 13–14, 201043%3%5%11%37%
Research 2000 February 1–3, 201036%––4%27%33%
Public Policy Polling April 21, 201043%11%19%5%21%
Magellan Strategies Archived May 31, 2010, at the Wayback Machine May 28, 201038%4%29%9%15%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 201047%6%14%8%20%
Magellan Strategies September 1, 201034%13%17%21%15%
Public Policy Polling September 11–12, 201037%12%13%30%5%
Magellan Strategies September 12, 201035%10%14%31%10%

Results

Results by county:
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Ayotte--40-50%
Ayotte--30-40%
Lamontagne--30-40%
Lamontagne--40-50% New Hampshire U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
  Ayotte—40–50%
  Ayotte—30–40%
  Lamontagne—30–40%
  Lamontagne—40–50%
Republican primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kelly Ayotte 53,056 38.21%
Republican Ovide Lamontagne51,39737.01%
Republican Bill Binnie19,50814.05%
Republican Jim Bender12,6119.08%
Republican Dennis Lamare1,3881.00%
Republican Tom Alciere4990.36%
Republican Gerard Beloin4020.29%
Total votes138,861 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Hodes called himself a fiscal conservative, which was mocked by Ayotte in a TV ad. Hodes was criticized for supporting President Obama's Economic Recovery package, a carbon energy tax, and Affordable Care Act. [29] [30] [31] Hodes criticized Ayotte for numerous controversies. One ad questioned Ayotte's honesty in dealing with the Lakes Region Ponzi scheme which defrauded investors of almost $80 million. [32]

Ayotte was endorsed by the Concord Monitor and the Nashua Telegraph. [33]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [36] Lean ROctober 26, 2010
Rothenberg [37] Safe ROctober 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics [38] Lean ROctober 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [39] Likely ROctober 21, 2010
CQ Politics [40] Lean ROctober 26, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kelly Ayotte (R)Paul Hodes (D)OtherUndecided
Granite State Poll June 24 – July 1, 2009558± 4.1%39%35%2%24%
Research 2000 July 13 – 15, 2009600± 4.0%39%38%2%21%
Rasmussen Reports September 14, 2009500± 4.5%46%38%5%12%
American Research Group September 30, 2009566± 4.1%41%34%––25%
Granite State Poll October 2, 2009503± 4.4%40%33%2%25%
American Research Group December 29, 2009566± 4.1%43%36%––21%
Rasmussen Reports January 12, 2010500± 4.5%49%40%3%8%
Granite State Poll January 27 – February 3, 2010500± 4.4%41%33%1%25%
Research 2000 February 1–3, 2010600± 4.0%46%39%––11%
Rasmussen Reports February 10, 2010500± 4.5%46%39%3%13%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010500± 4.5%47%37%4%12%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010500± 4.5%50%35%4%11%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 20101,474± 2.6%47%40%––13%
Granite State Poll April 12–21, 2010512± 4.4%47%32%––21%
Rasmussen Reports May 11, 2010500± 4.5%50%38%3%9%
Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010500± 4.5%49%37%7%7%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010900± 3.26%45%42%––13%
WMUR Granite State Poll July 19–27, 2010453± 4.4%45%37%1%17%
Rasmussen Reports August 5, 2010500± 4.5%51%38%4%6%
Public Policy Polling September 11–12, 20101,959± 2.2%47%43%––9%
Rasmussen Reports September 15, 2010500± 4.5%51%44%1%4%
American Research Group September 22–26, 2010800± 3.5%46%32%2%20%
American Research Group October 3–5, 2010600± 4.0%47%42%4%7%
Rasmussen Reports October 10, 2010750± 4.0%51%44%3%2%
WMUR/UNH October 7–12, 2010709± 3.7%50%35%1%12%
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2010750± 4.0%56%41%2%1%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 20101,308± 2.7%56%41%––3%
WMUR/UNH Archived March 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine October 27–30, 2010885± 3.3%54%36%2%8%
WMUR/UNH Archived March 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine October 31, 2010885± 3.3%55%32%2%2%
The Concord Archived March 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine October 31, 2010885± 3.3%56%32%2%4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll SourceDates
Administered
Sample
size
Margin of
Error
Paul
Hodes (D)
Jim
Bender (R)
OtherUndecided
WMUR Granite State Poll July 19–27, 2010453± 4.4%39%36%--25%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010900± 3.26%43%42%--16%
Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010500± 4.5%39%43%10%8%
Rasmussen Reports May 11, 2010500± 4.5%41%39%8%13%
Granite State Poll April 12–21, 2010512± 4.4%37%34%--29%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 20101474± 2.6%43%39%--18%
Granite State Poll January 27 – February 3, 2010500± 4.4%36%27%2%35%
Poll SourceDates
Administered
Sample
size
Margin of
Error
Paul
Hodes (D)
Bill
Binnie (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports August 5, 2010500± 4.5%40%46%8%7%
WMUR Granite State Poll July 19–27, 2010453± 4.4%38%41%--21%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010900± 3.26%41%46%--13%
Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010500± 4.5%38%49%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports May 11, 2010500± 4.5%37%49%6%8%
Granite State Poll April 12–21, 2010512± 4.4%36%38%--26%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 20101474± 2.6%42%45%--13%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010500± 4.5%37%49%4%10%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010500± 4.5%36%46%4%14%
Rasmussen Reports February 10, 2010500± 4.5%41%42%3%13%
Research 2000 February 1–3, 2010600± 4.0%45%35%--15%
Granite State Poll January 27 – February 3, 2010500± 4.4%34%30%2%33%
Rasmussen Reports January 12, 2010500± 4.5%43%37%5%15%
Poll SourceDates
Administered
Sample
size
Margin of
Error
Paul
Hodes (D)
Ovide
Lamontagne (R)
OtherUndecided
WMUR Granite State Poll July 19–27, 2010453± 4.4%42%36%1%21%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010900± 3.26%43%38%--18%
Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010500± 4.5%40%43%9%9%
Rasmussen Reports May 11, 2010500± 4.5%43%38%8%11%
Granite State Poll April 12–21, 2010512± 4.4%36%37%--26%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 20101474± 2.6%44%37%--19%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010500± 4.5%39%44%7%11%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010500± 4.5%42%38%5%15%
Rasmussen Reports February 10, 2010500± 4.5%44%38%4%13%
Research 2000 February 1–3, 2010600± 4.0%46%36%--13%
Granite State Poll January 27 – February 3, 2010500± 4.4%38%29%2%30%
Rasmussen Reports January 12, 2010500± 4.5%45%38%6%11%
American Research Group December 29, 2009566± 4.1%31%37%--32%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Kelly Ayotte (R)$4,403,599$3,397,934$1,005,664$26,944
Paul Hodes (D)$4,596,642$4,346,539$248,003$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [41]

Results

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2010 [42] [43]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Kelly Ayotte 273,218 60.09% −6.15%
Democratic Paul Hodes 167,54536.85%+3.10%
Independent Chris Booth9,1942.02%N/A
Libertarian Ken Blevens4,7531.04%+1.04%
Total votes454,710 100.0%
Republican hold

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Official campaign websites (Archived)