2010 New Mexico gubernatorial election

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2010 New Mexico gubernatorial election
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  Governor NewMexico.jpg Diane Denish.jpg
Nominee Susana Martinez Diane Denish
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate John Sanchez Brian Colón
Popular vote321,219280,614
Percentage53.3%46.5%
2010 New Mexico gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results

Martínez:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Denish:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Bill Richardson
Democratic

Elected Governor

Susana Martínez
Republican

The 2010 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Democratic governor Bill Richardson was term limited and could not seek a third consecutive term.

Contents

On June 1, 2010, the Republicans nominated Susana Martínez, the district attorney for Doña Ana County, New Mexico, and the Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish.

While it was initially thought that Richardson would resign early to become Secretary of Commerce in the Obama administration, Richardson withdrew from the position due to allegations of corruption that were later cleared and he remained governor until the conclusion of his term. [1]

Susana Martínez won the election on November 2, 2010, and became New Mexico's first elected female governor, as well as the first Latina governor of any state.

Democratic nomination

The Democratic primary election was held on June 1, 2010. [2]

Candidate

Results

Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Diane Denish 108,302 99.1
Democratic Billy J. Driggs (write-in)1,1060.9
Total votes109,318 100

Republican nomination

The Republican primary was held on June 1, 2010. [2] Susana Martinez won the Republican nomination by getting over 50 percent of the vote in the primary. A pre-primary convention was held on March 13 and Martinez received 47 percent of the pre-primary Republican vote. [5]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Convention

A pre-primary nominating convention was held on March 13, 2010. Susana Martinez was victorious, winning the support of 46.65 percent of delegates, while Allen Weh received 26.32%, Janice Arnold-Jones received 13.16%, Doug Turner won 9.43%, and Pete Domenici, Jr. won 4.61%. Candidates who receive less than 20% of the convention vote are required to collect twice as many signatures as those who received 20% in order to appear on the primary ballot. Nonetheless, Arnold-Jones, Turner and Domenici all signaled their intention to remain in the race. [5]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Janice Arnold-JonesPete Domenici, Jr.Susana MartínezDoug TurnerAllen WehUndecided
SurveyUSA May 23–25, 2010——3%8%43%8%33%5%
New Mexico State University February 9–13, 2010——2.5%29.3%11.5%6.8%7.4%42.6%

Results

Results by county: Martinez .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} 60-70% 50-60% 40-50% <40% Weh <40% 40-50% New Mexico gubernatorial Republican primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
Martínez
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   <40%
Weh
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Susana Martínez 62,006 50.7
Republican Allen Weh33,72727.6
Republican Doug Turner14,16611.6
Republican Pete Domenici, Jr.8,6307.0
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones3,7403.1
Total votes122,269 100

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [12] TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [13] Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [14] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [15] Likely R (flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics [16] Likely DOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Diane
Denish (D)		Susana
Martínez (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports October 24, 2010——42%52%——
SurveyUSA October 15, 2010——42%54%——
Rasmussen Reports October 10, 2010——43%52%——
Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2010——41%51%——
Albuquerque Journal September 27–30, 2010——41%47%——
Public Policy Polling September 25–26, 2010——42%50%——
Public Opinion Strategies September 11–13, 2010——40%50%——
Albuquerque Journal August 23–27, 2010——39%45%——
Rasmussen Reports August 24, 2010——43%48%——
Magellan Strategies June 21, 2010——43%44%——
Rasmussen Reports June 3, 2010——42%44%——
Rasmussen Reports May 25, 2010——43%42%——
SurveyUSA May 23–25, 2010——43%49%——
Rasmussen Reports March 24, 2010——51%32%——
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2010——46%32%——
Hypothetical polling
With Arnold-Jones
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Diane
Denish (D)		Janice
Arnold-Jones (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports May 25, 2010——45%31%——
SurveyUSA May 23–25, 2010——49%35%——
Rasmussen Reports March 24, 2010——52%30%——
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2010——47%33%——
With Domenici, Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Diane
Denish (D)		Pete
Domenici, Jr. (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports May 25, 2010——47%30%——
SurveyUSA May 23–25, 2010——46%40%——
Rasmussen Reports March 24, 2010——52%35%——
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2010——45%40%——
With Turner
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Diane
Denish (D)		Doug
Turner (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports May 25, 2010——47%31%——
SurveyUSA May 23–25, 2010——50%36%——
Rasmussen Reports March 24, 2010——43%34%——
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2010——46%32%——
With Weh
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Diane
Denish (D)		Allen
Weh (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports May 25, 2010——45%39%——
SurveyUSA May 23–25, 2010——47%42%——
Rasmussen Reports March 24, 2010——45%35%——
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2010——48%30%——

Results

New Mexico gubernatorial election, 2010 [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Susana Martinez 321,219 53.29% +22.10%
Democratic Diane Denish 280,61446.55%-22.27%
Write-insKenneth A. Gomez9940.16%
Majority40,6056.74%-30.90%
Turnout 602,832
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "Richardson withdrawal leaves cabinet gap". NBC News . January 6, 2009. Retrieved January 4, 2009.
  2. 1 2 Rudin, Ken (January 25, 2010). "Your 2010 Election Calendar". National Public Radio . Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  3. ↑ Jennings, Trip (November 5, 2009). "Denish, running for governor, steps into budgetary fray". The New Mexico Independent . Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  4. 1 2 "Canvass of Returns of Primary Election Held on June 1, 2010 – State of New Mexico" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 21, 2014. Retrieved November 5, 2014.
  5. 1 2 Haussamen, Heath (March 13, 2010). "Martinez takes impressive 47 percent of votes at GOP convention". The New Mexico Independent . Retrieved March 13, 2010.
  6. ↑ "New Mexico Gov Field at Two With More Likely". CQ Politics . August 1, 2009. Archived from the original on August 5, 2009. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  7. ↑ "Pete Domenici Jr. to run for governor". KRQE. January 16, 2010. Archived from the original on January 17, 2010. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  8. 1 2 "Susana Martinez officially declares candidacy for NM governor". Las Cruces Sun-News . February 9, 2010. Archived from the original on October 1, 2011. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  9. ↑ "Pearce Switches Races". Political Wire . July 6, 2009. Archived from the original on July 9, 2009. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  10. ↑ "Wilson: I won't run for governor". KRQE. October 29, 2009. Archived from the original on June 11, 2011. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  11. ↑ Ornelas, Chris (July 17, 2009). "GOP gubernatorial candidate drops out". KOB . Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  12. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  13. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  14. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  15. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  16. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 2, 2010 – State of New Mexico" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 27, 2011.
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