2010 United States Senate special election in West Virginia

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2010 United States Senate special election in West Virginia
Flag of West Virginia.svg
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  Joe Manchin, Official Senate Portrait.jpg John Raese.jpg
Nominee Joe Manchin John Raese
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote283,358230,013
Percentage53.47%43.40%
2010 United States Senate special election in West Virginia results map by county.svg
County results
Manchin:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Raese:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Carte Goodwin [lower-alpha 1]
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Manchin
Democratic

The 2010 United States Senate special election in West Virginia was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Senator Robert Byrd died in office on June 28, 2010. Democratic Governor Joe Manchin appointed Carte Goodwin to temporarily fill the vacancy. Goodwin pledged to not run for election to the seat in exchange for the appointment. This was the first open U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia since 1984 and the first in this seat since 1956. Manchin won the open seat and served out the remainder of Byrd's elected term, which ended on January 3, 2013. [1]

Contents

Background

Byrd's career

Byrd had held his seat in the U.S. Senate since 1959, after having served in the House of Representatives since 1953, making him the then-longest-serving person in Congress. Byrd led his party in the Senate from 1977 to 1989, as Majority Leader or Minority Leader. Afterwards, as the most senior Democrat in the Senate, he served as President pro tempore of the Senate whenever his party was in the majority, including at the time of his death. The Democrats held a 59–41 seat majority in the Senate at the time of Byrd's death.

State politics

West Virginia had not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1956, [2] and voted Democratic in each presidential election from 1932 to 1996 (except for 1956, 1972 & 1984). 77% of voters in the state approved of Democratic governor Joe Manchin, but only 35% approved of Democratic President Barack Obama. [3]

Additionally, the Mountain (Green), Libertarian, and Constitution Parties have been slowly growing forces in the state, hoping to capitalize on discontent from both political parties. All three minor parties fielded ballot-qualified candidates in the 2014 Senate election to fill the open seat of retiring longtime Senator Jay Rockefeller. [4]

Interim appointment

State law allowed Governor Joe Manchin to make a temporary appointment to the vacant seat. Manchin named a former aide, 36-year-old Carte Goodwin, an attorney and fellow Democrat. Goodwin was sworn in on July 20, 2010, and chose not to run in the special election. [5] Hours later, Manchin announced his intention to seek Byrd's seat. [6]

Timing of the election

Gov. Manchin urged the West Virginia Legislature to pass legislation scheduling the special election for 2010. [7] Without a revision, state law would not allow an election to be held until 2012. [8] On July 19, legislators hammered out a compromise bill setting an Aug 28 special primary and Nov 2 special election to elect a senator for the roughly two years and five months remaining in Byrd's term. The bill only changed election law for 2010 and will not apply to other future elections. It also allowed a West Virginian who was on the November general election ballot for some other office to also run in the special election. [9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Campaign

Despite Manchin's very high popularity in the state, he received two politically experienced challengers. Hechler was a former Secretary of State and U.S. Representative, who at the age of 95 campaigned across the state on an anti-mountaintop removal platform. [13] Fletcher was a former Republican member of the House of Delegates.

Results

Democratic Primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Joe Manchin 67,498 72.9
Democratic Ken Hechler16,03917.3
Democratic Sheirl Fletcher9,0359.8
Total votes92,572 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Campaign

During the Republican primary campaign, only Raese and Warner released television advertisements. [25]

Results

Republican Primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Raese 38,152 71.4
Republican Mac Warner7,89214.8
Republican Scott H. Williams1,5302.9
Republican Kenneth Culp1,3642.6
Republican Harry C. Bruner Jr.1,2832.4
Republican Thomas Ressler1,1842.2
Republican Lynette Kennedy McQuain9071.7
Republican Frank Kubic4620.9
Republican Daniel Scott Rebich4500.8
Republican Albert Howard1760.3
Total votes53,400 100

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Manchin's campaign ads emphasized his support from labor unions and Cecil Roberts (President of United Mine Workers of America), while criticizing Raese for "putting profits before people", [28] supporting the elimination of the minimum wage, and supporting the FairTax. [29] Manchin was endorsed by both the AFL–CIO and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. [30] Raese was endorsed from numerous anti-abortion PACs [31] and FreedomWorks. [32] Raese criticized Manchin for supporting House Bill 103, which is similar to cap and trade. [33]

Debates

The first and only debate was held October 18. It featured all four Senate candidates. [34] Raese wanted at least three debates. [35]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [36] TossupOctober 31, 2010
The Rothenberg Political Report [37] Tilt DOctober 28, 2010
Rasmussen Reports [38] TossupOctober 30, 2010
RealClearPolitics [39] TossupOctober 31, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [40] Lean DOctober 28, 2010
CQ Politics [41] TossupOctober 31, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Manchin (D)		John
Raese (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)July 22, 2010500± 4.5%51%35%5%9%
MindField Poll (report)August 6, 2010413± 6.0%54%32%—14%
Rasmussen Reports (report)August 29, 2010500± 4.5%48%42%4%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 8, 2010500± 4.5%50%45%2%3%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 19, 2010750± 4.0%50%43%1%5%
Public Policy Polling (report)September 19, 20101,397± 2.6%43%46%—10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 27, 2010500± 4.5%46%48%2%4%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report)October 2, 20101,000± 3.0%43%48%3%6%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 6, 2010750± 4.0%44%50%2%5%
Public Policy Polling (report)October 9–10, 20101,247± 2.8%48%45%—7%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report)October 8–12, 20101,507± 2.5%44%44%4%—
Marshall University Poll conducted by Orion Strategies (report)October 11–12, 2010450± 4.6%48%38%—12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 12, 2010750± 4.0%46%49%2%3%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report)October 16, 20101,000± 3.0%45%48%2%4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 19, 2010750± 4.0%43%50%2%5%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report)October 23, 20101,000± 3.0%46%48%3%3%
Public Policy Polling (report)October 23–24, 20101,246± 2.8%50%44%—6%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 26, 2010750± 4.0%49%46%2%4%
Public Policy Polling (report)October 30–31, 20101,676± 2.4%51%46%—3%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 31, 2010750± 4.0%50%46%1%3%

Fundraising

Candidate (Party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on HandDebt
John Raese (R)$3,071,909$2,728,034$343,876$3,273,959
Joe Manchin (D)$3,351,829$2,746,439$605,390$3,568
Source: Federal Election Commission [42]

Results

United States Senate special election in West Virginia, 2010 results [43]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Joe Manchin 283,358 53.47% −10.96%
Republican John Raese 230,01343.40%+9.69%
Mountain Jesse Johnson 10,1521.92%+0.06%
Constitution Jeff Becker6,4251.21%N/A
Majority53,34510.07%
Total votes529,948 100
Democratic hold Swing

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. ↑ In July 2010, Goodwin was appointed by Governor Joe Manchin to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator Robert Byrd.

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References

  1. ↑ "Democrat Manchin wins key W. Va. Senate race". Chicago Sun-Times . Associated Press. November 2, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  2. ↑ See List of United States senators from West Virginia
  3. ↑ "Election 2010: West Virginia Senate Special Election". Rasmussen Reports. July 9, 2010. Retrieved July 13, 2010.
  4. ↑ "Candidate Listing By Office, 2014". West Virginia Secretary of State. August 19, 2014. Retrieved August 19, 2014.
  5. 1 2 Capehart, Jonathan (July 16, 2010). "Sen. Carte Goodwin (D-Caretaker-W.Va.)". The Washington Post . Retrieved July 21, 2010.
  6. ↑ "Joe Manchin Makes It Official: He's Running for WV Senate Seat". CBS News. July 20, 2010. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
  7. ↑ "Joe Manchin Makes It Official: He's Running for WV Senate Seat". CBS News. July 20, 2010. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
  8. ↑ "West Virginia Sec. of State: No Election For Byrd's Seat Until 2012". TPM – Talking Points Memo. June 28, 2010. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
  9. ↑ "Charleston Gazette: Compromise reached in Byrd replacement process". Wvgazette.com. December 31, 1969. Archived from the original on July 23, 2010. Retrieved March 23, 2011.
  10. ↑ Toeplitz, Shira (July 20, 2010). "Joe Manchin's in, with nod to Robert Byrd". Politico . Retrieved July 21, 2010.
  11. ↑ "Perennial candidate Sheirl Fletcher files for Senate run".
  12. ↑ Toeplitz, Shira (July 21, 2010). "Manchin gets veteran Dem challenger". Politico . Retrieved July 21, 2010.
  13. ↑ "Hechler ready for rough terrain". Charleston Daily Mail. August 12, 2010. Archived from the original on August 14, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  14. 1 2 "U.S. Senate Special Election (Unofficial Results)". Secretary of State of West Virginia . Retrieved August 29, 2010.
  15. ↑ Toeplitz, Shira (July 22, 2010). "Raese is in for W.Va. Senate special". Politico . Retrieved August 28, 2010.
  16. ↑ "Harry C. Bruner Jr". The Herald-Dispatch . Archived from the original on July 11, 2011. Retrieved August 28, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Kenneth A. Culp". The Herald-Dispatch . Archived from the original on July 11, 2011. Retrieved August 28, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Albert Howard". The Herald-Dispatch . Archived from the original on July 11, 2011. Retrieved August 28, 2010.
  19. ↑ John McVey (July 24, 2010). "Kubic files for Senate position". The Journal . Archived from the original on April 19, 2015. Retrieved April 8, 2015.
  20. ↑ "Lynette Kennedy McQuain". The Herald-Dispatch . Archived from the original on March 11, 2012. Retrieved August 28, 2010.
  21. ↑ "Daniel Scott Rebich". The Herald-Dispatch . Archived from the original on July 11, 2011. Retrieved August 28, 2010.
  22. ↑ "Thomas Ressler". The Herald-Dispatch . Archived from the original on March 11, 2012. Retrieved August 28, 2010.
  23. ↑ "Mac Warner". The Herald-Dispatch . Archived from the original on March 11, 2012. Retrieved August 28, 2010.
  24. ↑ "Scott H. Williams". The Herald-Dispatch . Archived from the original on July 11, 2011. Retrieved August 28, 2010.
  25. ↑ "Special Election Ads Slow to Start – WOWK-TV". WOWKTV.com. August 17, 2010. Archived from the original on July 26, 2011. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  26. ↑ webmaster@wvmh.com (September 2, 2010). "Constitution Party Candidate on Ballot for Senate Seat – WVNS-TV". WVNSTV.com. Retrieved March 23, 2011.
  27. ↑ "Jesse Johnson". The Herald-Dispatch . Archived from the original on July 11, 2011. Retrieved August 28, 2010.
  28. ↑ "Joe Manchin for Senate :: West Virginia :: News". Joemanchinwv.com. Retrieved March 23, 2011.
  29. ↑ "Joe Manchin for Senate :: West Virginia :: What Does John Raese Really Believe In?". Archived from the original on September 22, 2010. Retrieved September 23, 2010.
  30. ↑ "Joe Manchin for Senate :: West Virginia :: Manchin Receives Endorsements from State and U.S. Chamber". Joemanchinwv.com. September 20, 2010. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved March 23, 2011.
  31. ↑ "John Raese Proudly Announces the Primary Endorsement of West Virginians for Life! | John Raese For Senate". Raeseforsenate.org. August 24, 2010. Archived from the original on June 18, 2011. Retrieved March 23, 2011.
  32. ↑ "WCHS Radio 58". 58wchs.com. Retrieved March 23, 2011.
  33. ↑ "Manchin vs. Raese on the Coal Controversy". Wsaz.com. Archived from the original on July 18, 2011. Retrieved March 23, 2011.
  34. ↑ "All candidates for WV Senate seat agree to debate". WVPubcast.org. December 24, 2010. Archived from the original on October 18, 2010. Retrieved March 23, 2011.
  35. ↑ "Debate for Senate race in works". Charleston Daily Mail . Archived from the original on September 18, 2010. Retrieved September 23, 2010.
  36. ↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report . Retrieved October 31, 2010.
  37. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 31, 2010.
  38. ↑ "Election 2010: Senate Balance of Power". Rasmussen Reports . Retrieved October 31, 2010.
  39. ↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 31, 2010.
  40. ↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved October 31, 2010.
  41. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 31, 2010.
  42. ↑ "Discloser Search: WV 2010" . Retrieved October 20, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  43. ↑ "WV SOS – Elections". Apps.sos.wv.gov. November 2, 2010. Retrieved March 23, 2011.
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