2010 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

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2010 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico
Flag of New Mexico.svg
←  2008 November 2, 2010 2012  →
All 3 New Mexico seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election30
Seats won21
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 1Increase2.svg 1
Popular vote307,766288,885
Percentage51.6%48.4%
SwingDecrease2.svg 4.5Increase2.svg 9.0
2010 House elections New Mexico.svg
2010 United States House of Representatives Elections in New Mexico by county.svg

The 2010 congressional elections in New Mexico were held on November 2, 2010, and determined New Mexico's representation in the United States House of Representatives. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; the winners of the election served in the 111th Congress, which began on January 4, 2009, ended on January 3, 2011.

Contents

New Mexico has three seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Its 2009–2011 congressional delegation consisted of three Democrats and no Republicans, which changed to two Democrats and one Republican after the 2010 election.

Overview

United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico, 2010 [1]
PartyVotesPercentageSeats+/–
Democratic 307,76651.58%2-1
Republican 288,88548.42%1+1
Totals596,651100.00%3—

By district

Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico by district: [2]

District Democratic Republican OthersTotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1 112,01051.80%104,21548.20%00.00%216,225100%Democratic Hold
District 2 75,70844.60%94,05355.40%00.00%169,761100%Republican Gain
District 3 120,04856.99%90,61743.01%00.00%210,665100%Democratic Hold
Total307,76651.58%288,88548.42%00.00%596,651100%

District 1

NM01 109.gif

Campaign

First elected in 2008, incumbent Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich ran for re-election for the first time this year. This moderate [3] district, based in metro Albuquerque, has a tendency of supporting both Republican and Democratic candidates for office. In the general election, Congressman Heinrich faced Jon Barela, the Republican nominee for the seat and a former high-ranking official in the New Mexico Republican Party. Barela hammered at Heinrich for being "too far left" for what he described as a "center-right seat." [4] The Albuquerque Journal endorsed Jon Barela in the general election, citing the fact that he "would boost the economy by nurturing predictability for investors and job creators" and urging New Mexico voters to vote for a candidate who would "[help] restore balance to Congress and [place] an emphasis on people over government programs to right the ship." [5] Polling indicated that the race would be close, and on election day, Heinrich won a second term by nearly a four-point margin and 8,000 votes.

Polling

Poll SourceDates AdministeredMartin Heinrich (D)Jon Barela (R)Undecided
Research and Polling Inc. [6] October 27–28, 201046%49%–
Public Opinion Strategies [7] †October 24–25, 201047%49%–
Research and Polling Inc. [6] September 27–30, 201048%41%–
Public Policy Polling [8] September 25–26, 201050%43%7%
American Action Forum [9] August 23–29, 201049%42%9%
Research and Polling Inc. [10] August 23–27, 201047%41%12%
Survey USA [11] July 22–25, 201045%51%4%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research [12] †July 8–13, 201053%41%–
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research [13] †April 28 – May 2, 201055%38%–
Public Policy Polling [14] February 25, 201045%36%19%

†Internal poll (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the Heinrich campaign and Public Opinion Strategies for the Barela campaign)

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [15] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Rothenberg [16] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17] Lean DNovember 1, 2010
RCP [18] TossupNovember 1, 2010
CQ Politics [19] Lean DOctober 28, 2010
New York Times [20] Lean DNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight [20] Lean DNovember 1, 2010

Results

New Mexico's 1st congressional district election, 2010 [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 112,010 51.80
Republican Jon Barela104,21548.20
Total votes216,225 100.00
Democratic hold

District 2

NM02 109.gif

Campaign

This conservative-leaning [3] district, which has historically supported Republican candidates for higher office, has been represented by moderate Democratic Congressman Harry Teague since he was first elected two years prior. The previous Congressman, Republican Steve Pearce, retired in 2008 to run for Senate, a race that he lost. Coming off from a large electoral defeat at the hands of Democrat Tom Udall, the former Congressman Pearce re-entered the political sphere and challenged Congressman Teague when he sought election to a second congressional term. A tough campaign ensued, with Pearce taking the lead in most polls. Pearce's advantage widened when the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced that it was shifting resources from the 2nd district to the 1st district, a decision that the Pearce campaign responded, "The DCCC is realizing what we knew all along. Voters do not want the Teague-Pelosi agenda of out-of-control spending and lost jobs." [21] In late October, Congressman Teague declined to participate in a debate with Steve Pearce, giving Pearce solo airtime that was broadcast statewide and providing some observers with evidence that Teague was essentially conceding defeat to Pearce. [22] As political prognosticators indicated, on election day, Pearce defeated the incumbent Congressman and returned to Washington for his fourth nonconsecutive term.

Polling

Poll SourceDates AdministeredHarry Teague (D)Steve Pearce (R)Undecided
Research and Polling Inc. [23] October 27–28, 201045%48%–
Tarrance Group [24] †October 19–20, 201041%50%9%
The Hill/ANGA [25] September 28–30, 201042%46%10%
Research and Polling Inc. [23] September 27–30, 201044%45%–
Public Policy Polling [26] September 25–26, 201047%48%5%
Anzalone Liszt Research [27] September 7–9, 201051%44%–
Research and Polling Inc. [10] August 23–27, 201045%42%–
Hamilton Campaigns [28] †April 6–8, 201047%46%8%
Public Policy Polling [14] February 25, 201041%43%16%
Tarrance Group (Link)†February 16–18, 201044%48%8%
Hamilton Campaigns [28] †August, 200942%52%6%

†Internal poll (Hamilton Campaigns polls commissioned by Teague; Tarrance Group poll for Pearce)

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [15] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
Rothenberg [16] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
RCP [18] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
CQ Politics [19] TossupOctober 28, 2010
New York Times [20] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight [20] Likely R (flip)November 1, 2010

Results

New Mexico's 2nd congressional district election, 2010 [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Steve Pearce 94,053 55.40
Democratic Harry Teague (incumbent)75,70844.60
Total votes169,761 100.00
Republican gain from Democratic

District 3

NM03 109.gif

Campaign

Incumbent Democratic Congressman Ben Ray Luján has represented this liberal [3] district based in northern New Mexico since he was first elected in 2008 to replace outgoing Democratic Congressman Tom Udall, who successfully ran for Senate. Seeking a second term, Congressman Luján faced Republican businessman Tom Mullins in the general election. The Albuquerque Journal endorsed Mullins, praising his plans to "trim federal spending" and "help the private sector create jobs…[by] lowering taxes." [5] Despite this, however, Luján was able to use the district's natural liberal leanings to his advantage and won re-election to a second term in Congress.

Republican primary

New Mexico U.S. House District 3 Republican primary, 2010 [29]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Thomas E. Mullins 23,301 71.32
Republican Adam Kokesh 9,37228.68
Total votes32,673 100

Polling

Poll SourceDates AdministeredBen R. Luján (D)Tom Mullins (R)Undecided
Public Policy Polling [30] September 25–26, 201049%43%8%
Public Policy Polling [14] February 25, 201042%36%22%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [15] Likely DNovember 1, 2010
Rothenberg [16] Safe DNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17] Safe DNovember 1, 2010
RCP [18] Lean DNovember 1, 2010
CQ Politics [19] Safe DOctober 28, 2010
New York Times [20] Safe DNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight [20] Safe DNovember 1, 2010

Results

New Mexico's 3rd congressional district election, 2010 [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ben Ray Luján (incumbent) 120,048 56.99
Republican Thomas Mullins90,61743.01
Total votes210,665 100.00
Democratic hold

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on February 27, 2017. Retrieved June 21, 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ↑ Haas, Karen L. (June 3, 2011). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Archived from the original on January 3, 2013. Retrieved November 12, 2019.
  3. 1 2 3 "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 111th Congress." The Cook Political Report. N.p., n.d. Web. 19 June 2011. <>.
  4. ↑ "Jon Barela to Politico: Martin Heinrich is 'too far left' | New Mexico Independent". Archived from the original on August 23, 2011. Retrieved June 21, 2011.
  5. 1 2 "ABQJOURNAL OPINION/EDITORIALS: Journal Endorsements for U.S. Congress". Archived from the original on October 29, 2010. Retrieved June 21, 2011.
  6. 1 2 Research and Polling Inc.
  7. ↑ Public Opinion Strategies
  8. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  9. ↑ American Action Forum
  10. 1 2 Research and Polling Inc.
  11. ↑ Survey USA
  12. ↑ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
  13. ↑ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
  14. 1 2 3 Public Policy Polling
  15. 1 2 3 "The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races". The Cook Political Report. November 1, 2010. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  16. 1 2 3 Rothenberg Political Report (November 1, 2010). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 1, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  17. 1 2 3 Crystal Ball, as of November 1,2010
  18. 1 2 3 RealClearPolitics, as of November 1,2010
  19. 1 2 3 "2010 House Ratings Chart". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  20. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "House Race Ratings". nytimes.com. The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 7, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
  21. ↑ "Capitol Report | New Mexico » National Dems cut back on Teague ads". Archived from the original on November 2, 2011. Retrieved June 21, 2011.
  22. ↑ "Did Harry Teague just forfeit the election to Steve Pearce Thursday night?". Archived from the original on October 9, 2011. Retrieved June 21, 2011.
  23. 1 2 Research and Polling Inc.
  24. ↑ Tarrance Group
  25. ↑ The Hill/ANGA [ dead link ]
  26. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  27. ↑ Anzalone Liszt Research
  28. 1 2 Hamilton Campaigns
  29. ↑ "Canvass of Returns of Primary Election Held on June 1, 2010 – State of New Mexico" (PDF). State of New Mexico. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 21, 2014. Retrieved September 14, 2017.
  30. ↑ Public Policy Polling
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