2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Flag of New Mexico.svg
←  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  →
Turnout55.0%
  Heinrich Official Headshot 2019 (cropped).jpg Mick Rich, NM GOP Senate candidate (43627127715) (cropped).jpg Gary Johnson by Gage Skidmore 9 (3x4).jpg
Nominee Martin Heinrich Mick Rich Gary Johnson
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote376,998212,813107,201
Percentage54.09%30.53%15.38%
2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico results map by county.svg
2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico results by congressional district.svg
NM Senate 2018.svg
Heinrich:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Rich:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No data
U.S. senator before election

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich won re-election to a second term. [1] His opponents were Republican nominee and businessman Mick Rich and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a two-term Republican governor of New Mexico and two-time candidate for president of the United States.

The candidate filing deadline was March 13, 2018. The Republican and Democratic primary elections were held June 5, 2018. [2] Johnson's results were the highest results for a Libertarian candidate in New Mexico history.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 152,145 100%
Total votes152,145 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Mick Rich, businessman [4]

Declined

Results

Republican primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mick Rich 67,502 100%
Total votes67,502 100%

Libertarian primary

On July 30, 2018, nominee Aubrey Dunn withdrew from the race. On August 4, former governor Gary Johnson was formally nominated by the Libertarian Party of New Mexico as Dunn's replacement. [8] Johnson accepted his party's nomination on August 13. [9]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew nomination

Results

Libertarian primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Aubrey Dunn 623 100%
Total votes623 100%

General election

Debates

Endorsements

Mick Rich (R)
Governors
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Gary Johnson (L)
Governors
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
State representatives
Local officeholders
Journalists
Newspapers
Organizations
  • Libertarian Youth Caucus [37]
  • New Mexico Open Primaries [38]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [39] Safe DOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [40] Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [41] Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Fox News [42] Likely DNovember 1, 2018
CNN [43] Safe DNovember 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics [44] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [45] Safe DNovember 6, 2018

^Highest rating given

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Mick
Rich (R)		Gary
Johnson (L)		Undecided
Research Co. [46] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%47%33%11%9%
Carroll Strategies [47] November 1, 20181,202± 2.8%51%38%8%3%
Research & Polling, Inc. [48] October 26 – November 1, 2018993± 3.1%51%31%12%6%
Emerson College [49] October 24–26, 2018936± 3.4%48%32%16%5%
Pacific Market Research [50] October 19–24, 2018400± 4.9%40%28%22%11%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) [51] September 20–24, 2018932–36%10%28%26%
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) [52] September 16–17, 2018900–38%10%28%24%
Research & Polling, Inc. [53] September 7–13, 2018966± 3.1%47%26%16%–
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) [54] August 2018900–38%13%28%21%
Emerson College [55] August 17–18, 2018500± 4.6%39%11%21%30%
GQR Research (D-TMI) [56] August 2–5, 2018500± 4.4%48%33%17%2%
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich) [57] August 1–5, 2018800± 3.5%47%29%22%–
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich) [58] July 31 – August 2, 2018500± 4.5%44%30%20%6%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) [59] July 2018500–39%25%23%12%
Hypothetical polling

with Mick Rich

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Mick
Rich (R)		Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich) [58] July 31 – August 2, 2018500± 4.5%55%37%8%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) [60] July 2018500–47%29%–

with Gary Johnson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Gary
Johnson (L)		Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich) [57] August 1–5, 2018800± 3.5%50%38%–
In Lux Research (L) [61] July 28–29, 2018525–40%42%–

with Aubrey Dunn

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Mick
Rich (R)		Aubrey
Dunn (L)		Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) [62] July 2018500–47%30%7%16%
Carroll Strategies [63] June 15–16, 20181,199± 2.8%50%39%5%6%

Results

2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 376,998 54.09% +3.08%
Republican Mick Rich212,81330.53%−14.75%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 107,20115.38%N/A
Total votes697,012 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

Vote breakdown by county [64]
Martin Heinrich
Democrat 		Mick Rich
Republican 		Gary Johnson
Libertarian 		Total
CountyVotes %Votes %Votes %Votes
Bernalillo 140,08258.1%61,93225.7%39,27416.3%241,288
Catron 55026.9%1,07558.4%21711.8%1,842
Chaves 5,27931.7%8,72752.4%2,66616.0%16,672
Cibola 3,92455.1%1,84225.9%1,35519.0%7,121
Colfax 2,33349.9%1,61534.5%73115.6%4,679
Curry 2,79327.4%5,89657.9%1,49814.7%10,187
De Baca 26733.2%34242.5%19624.4%805
Doña Ana 34,65157.0%18,10129.8%8,02913.2%60,781
Eddy 4,83430.7%8,82656.0%2,09513.3%15,755
Grant 6,76357.3%3,59830.5%1,44212.2%11,803
Guadalupe 1,09465.2%29217.4%29217.4%1,678
Harding 19841.2%19941.4%8417.5%481
Hidalgo 79049.5%60738.1%19812.4%1,595
Lea 3,33124.1%8,88264.2%1,62811.8%13,841
Lincoln 2,61733.3%4,12252.5%1,11114.2%7,850
Los Alamos 5,79856.3%2,57625.0%1,92618.7%10,300
Luna 3,00548.9%2,31337.7%82313.4%6,141
McKinley 12,40967.5%2,91515.9%3,04916.6%18,373
Mora 1,56467.4%37216.0%38616.6%2,322
Otero 6,37037.2%8,46049.4%2,29113.4%17,121
Quay 1,01632.9%1,53449.7%53717.4%3,087
Rio Arriba 8,77368.8%1,94515.3%2,03516.0%12,753
Roosevelt 1,27727.6%2,60656.3%75016.2%4,633
San Juan 12,48533.4%18,00248.2%6,87618.4%37,363
San Miguel 6,60971.6%1,29814.1%1,32314.3%9,230
Sandoval 28,19850.9%17,78532.1%9,39717.0%55,380
Santa Fe 49,99474.4%9,54614.2%7,64211.4%67,182
Sierra 1,91740.5%2,04843.3%76716.2%4,732
Socorro 3,40954.7%1,70027.3%1,12918.1%6,238
Taos 10,83874.7%1,55610.7%2,11214.6%14,506
Torrance 1,98236.9%2,43345.3%95117.7%5,366
Union 33422.8%87860.0%25217.2%1,464
Valencia 11,51447.1%8,79035.0%4,13916.9%24,443

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Heinrich won all three congressional districts. [65]

DistrictHeinrichRichJohnsonRepresentative
1st 57.55%26.28%16.17% Deb Haaland
2nd 45.56%40.17%14.27% Xochitl Torres Small
3rd 57.52%27.0%15.48% Ben Ray Luján

References

  1. 1 2 Coleman, Michael (November 10, 2016). "Who wants to be New Mexico's next governor?". Albuquerque Journal . Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  2. ↑ "United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018 - Ballotpedia" . Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  3. 1 2 3 "New Mexico Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. June 3, 2019.
  4. ↑ Lee, Morgan (April 19, 2017). "New Mexico construction contractor announces US Senate bid". KOB. Archived from the original on April 19, 2017. Retrieved April 19, 2017.
  5. ↑ "Libertarian Party gets a boost in NM". Nmpoliticalreport.com. January 30, 2018. Retrieved June 11, 2018.
  6. ↑ Keithley, Tim (November 23, 2016). "Turkey talk: Political drama on the horizon in 2018". Ruidoso News . Retrieved November 23, 2016.
  7. ↑ "New Mexico Governor Rules Out Senate Run". U.S. News & World Report . January 18, 2018. Retrieved March 15, 2018.
  8. ↑ "Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run". Associated Press.
  9. ↑ Boyd, Dan (August 14, 2018). "Gary Johnson makes it official: He's running for U.S. Senate". Albuquerque Journal .
  10. ↑ "Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run". Associated Press.
  11. ↑ McLaughlin, Jill. "Aubrey Dunn withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Los Alamos Monitor. Archived from the original on July 30, 2018. Retrieved July 30, 2018.
  12. ↑ @TeamHeinrich (August 17, 2018). "Speaking of independent voices in the Senate, here's @SenAngusKing on why we need Martin's. #nmpol #nmsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  13. ↑ "Retirees Celebrate Social Security's 83rd Anniversary by Endorsing Senator Heinrich - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. August 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 20, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  14. ↑ Tiffany Muller (July 6, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Re-election". End Citizens United.
  15. ↑ "2018 Senate Endorsees". JStreetPAC. Archived from the original on June 16, 2018. Retrieved August 1, 2018.
  16. 1 2 "National Environmental Groups Endorse Martin Heinrich For U.S. Senate". Martin Heinrich for Senate. April 22, 2018.
  17. ↑ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  18. ↑ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierraclub.org. July 16, 2012. Retrieved June 11, 2018.
  19. ↑ "Carpenters 2018 Midterm New Mexico Endorsements". Swcarpenters.org. Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters.
  20. ↑ "New Mexico – Official UAW Endorsements". Uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  21. ↑ @MickRich4Senate (September 6, 2018). "With Gov. Susana Martinez at the Carlsbad Mayor's Energy Summit. #NMpol #NMsen #Carlsbad #oil&gas" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  22. ↑ "Steve Pearce Endorses Mick Rich for U.S. Senate". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. September 20, 2018. Archived from the original on November 3, 2018. Retrieved November 3, 2018.
  23. ↑ Lyman, Andy (October 19, 2018). "Steve Bannon: Mick Rich is a 'real populist'". NM Political Report. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  24. ↑ "Associated Builders and Contractors Endorses Mick Rich for U.S. Senate". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. June 29, 2017. Archived from the original on June 23, 2018. Retrieved June 23, 2018.
  25. ↑ Mick Rich. "I'm honored today to be endorsed by the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors PAC. Thank you! I am the only conservative and pro-business candidate in New Mexico's race for U.S. Senate. #NMpol #NMsen". Twitter.
  26. ↑ "National Right To Life Committee Endorses Mick Rich". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. July 31, 2018. Archived from the original on July 31, 2018. Retrieved July 31, 2018.
  27. ↑ "Bill Weld". Facebook. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
  28. ↑ "Sen. Rand Paul Backs Libertarian Senate Candidate". The Associated Press. August 28, 2018. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
  29. ↑ Keller, Megan (August 28, 2018). "Rand Paul endorses Gary Johnson's Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved January 11, 2019.
  30. ↑ "Aubrey Dunn". Las Cruces Sun News. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
  31. 1 2 "New Mexico Open Primaries". Facebook. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
  32. ↑ Welch, Matt (August 31, 2018). "Eric Brakey, Republican Senate Candidate in Maine, Endorses Gary Johnson". Reason . Retrieved August 31, 2018.
  33. ↑ "Endorsements". Gary Johnson Official Campaign Site. Archived from the original on August 31, 2018. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
  34. ↑ @Mark4Gov (August 28, 2018). "Thank you @RandPaul for supporting the very best candidate for senate in New Mexico, @GovGaryJohnson!!#principlesoverparty#riseofthelibertarians#endtwopartyrule" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  35. ↑ @nickgillespie (August 14, 2018). "Very excited at this news about @GovGaryJohnson running as @LPNational candidate for Senate in NM! Stand by for more @MattWelch coverage http://reason.com/blog/2018/08/14/its-happening-gary-johnson-running-for-s … @GovBillWeld" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  36. ↑ "The Senate could use more libertarians like Gary Johnson". Ocregister.com. August 17, 2018. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
  37. ↑ "Libertarian Youth Caucus". Facebook.com. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
  38. ↑ "New Mexico Open Primaries". Facebook.com. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
  39. ↑ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  40. ↑ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  41. ↑ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  42. ↑ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News . Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  43. ↑ "Key Races: Senate" . Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  44. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2018" . Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  45. ↑ Silver, Nate (September 11, 2018). "New Mexico - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on September 26, 2018. Retrieved November 1, 2018.
  46. ↑ Research Co.
  47. ↑ Carroll Strategies Archived November 2, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  48. ↑ Research & Polling, Inc.
  49. ↑ Emerson College
  50. ↑ Pacific Market Research
  51. ↑ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  52. ↑ In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)
  53. ↑ Research & Polling, Inc.
  54. ↑ In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  55. ↑ Emerson College
  56. ↑ GQR Research (D-TMI) Archived August 25, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  57. 1 2 GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)
  58. 1 2 The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)
  59. ↑ NSON Opinion Strategy (L) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  60. ↑ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  61. ↑ In Lux Research (L)
  62. ↑ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  63. ↑ Carroll Strategies
  64. ↑ "New Mexico - Election Night Results". Archived from the original on June 11, 2019. Retrieved June 18, 2019.
  65. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

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