2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election
Flag of Massachusetts.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2022  
Turnout60.17% Increase2.svg 9.33% [1]
  Charlie Baker official photo (3x4a).jpg Jay Gonzalez (2018) (3x4a).png
Nominee Charlie Baker Jay Gonzalez
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Karyn Polito Quentin Palfrey
Popular vote1,781,341885,770
Percentage66.60%33.12%

2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2018 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Election by Town.svg
2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
MA Governor 2018 Precinct Results.svg
Baker:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Gonzalez:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Tie:     40–50%     50%

Governor before election

Charlie Baker
Republican

Elected Governor

Charlie Baker
Republican

The 2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Republican governor Charlie Baker and lieutenant governor Karyn Polito sought reelection to a second term in office, facing Democratic challengers Jay Gonzalez and Quentin Palfrey, respectively. Candidates were selected in the primary election held on September 4, 2018.

Contents

This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Despite Massachusetts's Democratic lean at the presidential level, Charlie Baker retained high approval ratings and was expected to safely win re-election. Shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m. local time, the Associated Press declared the race in favor of incumbents Baker and Polito. [2] Shortly after 9 p.m. location time, Gonzalez conceded the election. [3]

Baker was re-elected with the highest vote total in the history of Massachusetts gubernatorial elections and by the widest margin since Bill Weld was re-elected governor in 1994. He won many of the Commonwealth's most populated cities, including Worcester, New Bedford, and Springfield. [4] Baker almost won Boston, losing it by only around 3,000 votes, an extraordinary showing for a statewide Republican candidate in a major city. Baker also carried every county in the state. [5]

As of 2024, this is the last time Republicans won a statewide election in Massachusetts.

Background

Charlie Baker was elected in 2014 by a slim margin over then-Attorney General Martha Coakley; however, he was consistently rated as one of the most popular governors in the country. [6] Some Democrats, including Congressman Mike Capuano and Speaker of the House Bob DeLeo publicly speculated they may vote for Baker over the eventual Democratic nominee. [7] Speculated candidates such as Attorney General Maura Healey, Congressman Joe Kennedy, former state senator Dan Wolf, and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh all declined to be candidates, leaving no prominent Democrats to challenge Baker, which was seen as a necessary prerequisite to mount a formidable challenge to him.

Because Evan Falchuk received more than 3% of the vote in the 2014 gubernatorial election, the United Independent Party gained official status. [8] Falchuck had stated that he would "certainly" run for office in 2018. [9] In 2016 however, the UIP lost its official party status after it failed to register 1% of Massachusetts voters as members. [10] Falchuk later left the UIP and registered as a Democrat in early 2017. [11] [12]

Republican primary

There was some concern amongst the Republican Party that Baker was too moderate, and there were talks of challenging him with a more conservative opponent in the primaries. GOP state committeeman Robert Cappucci told the Boston Herald that if Baker "shuns conservatives [...] there will be 100 percent an effort to try to find a conservative, viable candidate to challenge him in 2018 for governor". David Kopacz, the president of the Massachusetts Republican Assembly, also stated that Baker might face a conservative challenger in 2018. [13]

Following his 2016 election, Barnstable County Commissioner Ron Beaty, who once was tried and convicted for threatening the life of President George H. W. Bush, [14] had been making local and state headlines. He proposed a "shark mitigation strategy" to combat the growing presence of sharks near Cape Cod beaches by baiting and shooting them, which was rejected for consideration by the commission chairman. He also mulled a primary run against his state representative, Randy Hunt, after Hunt parked in his Barnstable County Courthouse parking spot. In September 2017 he announced he was in the process of changing the purpose of his campaign committee from a county to a statewide office. He cited the governor's criticisms of President Donald Trump and his willingness to work with Democrats as his inspiration to run. [15] On December 8, 2017, Scott Lively announced his campaign. [16]

On December 13, 2017, Beaty stated he was no longer considering a run against Baker. [17] Scott Lively, an evangelical pastor, challenged Baker and received more than the 15% of delegate votes necessary at the state convention to qualify for ballot access. Baker won the endorsement of the party by an overwhelming margin. [18]

Baker ultimately won the nomination, but not without Lively securing 36 percent of the primary vote, leading to speculation that Baker's more moderate disposition and opposition to President Trump might have damaged his general election chances with Republican base voters. [19]

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Declined

Endorsements

Charlie Baker

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Scott Lively

Local officials

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker
Scott
Lively
OtherUndecided
MassINC [26] June 22–25, 2018399± 4.9%70%17%2%10%

Results

Convention
Republican convention vote, April 28 [18]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Charlie Baker (incumbent) 1,577 69.8%
Republican Scott Lively62627.7%
Republican Other572.5%
Total votes2,260 100.0%
Primary
Republican gubernatorial primary results by municipality Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial primary results by municipality, 2018.svg
Republican gubernatorial primary results by municipality
Republican gubernatorial primary results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Baker--60-70%
Baker--50-60% 2018 MA gubernatorial GOP primary.svg
Republican gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Baker—60–70%
  Baker—50–60%
Republican primary, September 4 [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Charlie Baker (incumbent) 174,126 63.78%
Republican Scott Lively98,42136.05%
Republican All others4640.17%
Total votes273,011 100.00%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

Results

Republican lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:
Polito-->90% MA Lt. Gov GOP primary.svg
Republican lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Polito—>90%
Republican primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Karyn Polito (incumbent) 204,914 98.8
Republican All others2,5711.2
Total votes207,485 100.0

Democratic primary

In November 2014, after interviewing over a dozen Democratic operatives, strategists, and activists, Joshua Miller of The Boston Globe wrote that the party would be looking for a young, fresh candidate who could appeal to the party's progressive base. He identified Attorney General Maura Healey as being "the first name on many Democratic lists". [29] Samantha Lachman of The Huffington Post also identified Healey as a potential candidate for governor in 2018 or in a future United States Senate race. [30]

As of July 2017, the declared candidates were relatively unknown to the state's voters. [31] Their identification by Democratic voters was bolstered by addressing the 2017 state Democratic Convention, which saw its largest attendance in years, of around 3,000 delegates. [32]

On April 26, 2018, Setti Warren announced via Facebook that he was withdrawing from the race due to financial concerns. He stated he would not endorse either of his former opponents until the nomination was won. [33]

At the Massachusetts Democratic Convention in June, party delegates endorsed Gonzalez and Palfrey, but Bob Massie and Jimmy Tingle also surpassed the 15% threshold for ballot access by comfortable margins. [34] A poll from late June conducted by WBUR and MassInc. indicated that the contest for the Democratic nomination in the gubernatorial race was a toss-up, with Massie and Gonzalez being separated by a percentage smaller than the margin of error.

Gonzalez and Palfrey went on to win their respective nominations generously (winning almost every municipality in the state) and headed into the general election to face their Republican counterparts.

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Endorsements

Jay Gonzalez

State elected officials

State legislators

Local elected officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Setti Warren (withdrew)

Officials

Organizations

Bob Massie

State legislators

Local elected officials

Party officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jay
Gonzalez
Bob
Massie
OtherUndecided
MassINC [76] June 22–25, 2018418± 4.9%21%15%7%52%

Results

Democratic gubernatorial primary results by municipality Massachusetts Democratic gubernatorial primary results by municipality, 2018.svg
Democratic gubernatorial primary results by municipality
Democratic gubernatorial primary results by county:
Gonzalez--70-80%
Gonzalez--60-70%
Gonzalez--50-60% 2018 MA gubernatorial D primary.svg
Democratic gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Gonzalez—70–80%
  Gonzalez—60–70%
  Gonzalez—50–60%
Democratic primary results [77]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jay Gonzalez 348,434 63.17
Democratic Bob Massie192,40434.88
N/a All others10,7421.95
Total votes551,580 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Declined

Endorsements

Quentin Palfrey

National figures

State legislators

Local elected officials

Organizations

Unions

Jimmy Tingle

Federal legislators

State officials

State legislators

Local elected officials

Results

Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:
Palfrey--70-80%
Palfrey--60-70%
Palfrey--50-60%
Tingle--40-50% 2018 MA Lt. GOV Dem primary.svg
Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Palfrey—70–80%
  Palfrey—60–70%
  Palfrey—50–60%
  Tingle—40–50%
Democratic primary results [82]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Quentin Palfrey 307,240 58.5
Democratic Jimmy Tingle214,20440.8
n/a All others3,7570.7
Total votes525,201 100.0

General election

Debates

2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Charlie Baker Jay Gonzalez
1October 9, 2018 WSBK-TV Jon Keller [83] PP
2October 17, 2018 WGBH-TV Jim Braude
Margery Eagan
[84] PP
3November 1, 2018 WCVB-TV WCVB-TV [85] PP

Endorsements

All individuals belong to the nominee's party unless otherwise specified.

Charlie Baker

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Jay Gonzalez

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

State elected officials

State legislators

Local elected officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [100] Safe ROctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [101] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [102] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [103] Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [104] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [105] Safe RNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [106] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [107] [a] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Politico [108] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Governing [109] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker (R)
Jay
Gonzalez (D)
OtherUndecided
MassINC [110] October 25–28, 2018502± 4.4%68%25%2%2%
Suffolk University [111] October 24–28, 2018500± 4.4%65%26%8%
Western New England University [112] October 10–27, 2018402 LV± 5.0%65%27%7%
485 RV± 4.0%64%25%10%
UMass Lowell [113] October 1–7, 2018485 LV± 5.6%66%27%5%3%
791 RV± 4.4%65%26%6%2%
MassINC [114] September 17–21, 2018506± 4.4%68%24%1%6%
Suffolk University [115] September 13–17, 2018500± 4.4%55%28%17%
Suffolk University [116] June 8–12, 2018500± 4.4%52%22%25%
MassINC [117] May 22–26, 2018501± 4.4%60%20%1%19%
MassINC [118] March 16–18, 2018504± 4.4%60%21%2%15%
MassINC [119] November 9–12, 2017503± 4.4%59%19%3%18%
MassINC [120] June 19–22, 2017504± 4.4%55%22%1%20%
Hypothetical polling

with Setti Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker (R)
Setti
Warren (D)
OtherUndecided
MassINC [118] March 16–18, 2018504± 4.4%58%24%3%13%
MassINC [119] November 9–12, 2017504± 4.4%58%24%2%15%
MassINC [120] June 19–22, 2017504± 4.4%53%26%1%17%
UMass Amherst [121] September 15–20, 2016400± 4.1%40%17%36%

with Katherine Clark

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker (R)
Katherine
Clark (D)
Undecided
UMass Amherst [121] September 15–20, 2016400± 4.1%39%24%31%

with Maura Healey

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker (R)
Maura
Healey (D)
Undecided
MassINC [120] June 19–22, 2017504± 4.4%48%36%13%
UMass Amherst [121] September 15–20, 2016400± 4.1%43%25%29%
Gravis Marketing [122] July 12–13, 2016901± 3.3%56%30%14%

with Joseph P. Kennedy III

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker (R)
Joseph P.
Kennedy III (D)
Undecided
UMass Amherst [121] September 15–20, 2016400± 4.1%33%33%29%
Gravis Marketing [122] July 12–13, 2016901± 3.3%50%38%12%

with Bob Massie

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker (R)
Bob
Massie (D)
OtherUndecided
Suffolk University [123] June 8–12, 2018500± 4.4%54%21%25%
MassINC [117] May 22–26, 2018501± 4.4%60%20%1%17%
MassINC [118] March 16–18, 2018504± 4.4%59%22%2%16%
MassINC [119] November 9–12, 2017504± 4.4%60%21%2%16%
MassINC [120] June 19–22, 2017504± 4.4%55%25%1%17%

with Seth Moulton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker (R)
Seth
Moulton (D)
Undecided
UMass Amherst [121] September 15–20, 2016400± 4.1%39%21%34%

with Marty Walsh

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker (R)
Marty
Walsh (D)
Undecided
UMass Amherst [121] September 15–20, 2016400± 4.1%37%28%32%

Results

Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018 [124]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Charlie Baker (incumbent) 1,781,341 66.60% Increase2.svg18.20
Democratic Jay Gonzalez 885,77033.12%Decrease2.svg13.42
Write-in 7,5040.28%Increase2.svg0.19
Total votes2,674,615 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By county

2018 United States gubernatorial election in Massachusetts (by county) [125]
CountyBaker %Baker #Gonzalez %Gonzalez #Others %Others #Total #
Barnstable 71.7%85,72625.2%30,1693.0%3,599119,494
Berkshire 51.6%28,33145.5%25,0302.9%1,59254,953
Bristol 68.5%132,37128.1%54,2803.3%6,458193,109
Dukes 54.1%5,55643.5%4,4702.5%25310,279
Essex 69.2%219,52227.4%86,8933.4%10,849317,264
Franklin 54.6%18,26343.4%14,5072.0%67033,440
Hampden 69.1%109,95227.5%43,8063.4%5,416159,174
Hampshire 52.0%37,27245.6%32,6672.5%1,76471,703
Middlesex 60.7%411,68736.3%246,1973.0%20,294678,178
Nantucket 56.8%2,38841.6%1,7501.6%674,205
Norfolk 67.1%209,31829.7%92,7093.2%10,125312,152
Plymouth 72.4%164,43823.9%54,3033.7%8,472227,213
Suffolk 49.1%125,24748.0%122,2492.9%7,346254,842
Worcester 73.0%231,27024.2%76,7402.7%8,649316,659

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Baker won 8 of 9 congressional districts, all of which elected Democrats. [126]

DistrictBakerGonzalezRepresentative
1st 67.24%32.76% Richard Neal
2nd 68.85%31.15% Jim McGovern
3rd 71.3%28.7% Lori Trahan
4th 69.49%30.51% Joe Kennedy III
5th 60.39%39.61% Katherine Clark
6th 73.52%26.48% Seth Moulton
7th 43.78%56.22% Ayanna Pressley
8th 68.43%31.53% Stephen Lynch
9th 73.19%26.81% Bill Keating

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Official campaign websites for gubernatorial candidates

Official campaign websites for lieutenant gubernatorial candidates