2018 Oregon gubernatorial election

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2018 Oregon gubernatorial election
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  Kate Brown P20211022AS-2274 (51761372021) (3x4a).jpg Knute Buehler Candidate (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Kate Brown Knute Buehler
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families
Popular vote934,498814,988
Percentage50.05%43.65%
2018 Oregon gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2018 OR Gubernatorial Election by precinct.svg
Brown:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Buehler:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data
Governor before election

Kate Brown
Democratic

Elected Governor

Kate Brown
Democratic

The 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Oregon to serve a full four-year term. In the 2016 special election, Democratic governor Kate Brown had been elected to serve the last two years of John Kitzhaber's term. [1]

Contents

The Republican Party nominated Knute Buehler, her opponent in the 2012 Oregon Secretary of State election; the Independent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Brown, running for a full term, won the election; because of term limits, she became ineligible to seek the governorship again.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Brown 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2018 OR gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Brown
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kate Brown (incumbent) 324,541 81.9
Democratic Ed Jones33,4648.4
Democratic Candace Neville29,1107.4
Democratic Write-ins8,9122.3
Total votes396,027 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Greg Wooldridge) [3] [17]

Declined

Endorsements

Knute Buehler
U.S. senators

State legislators

Individuals

  • Rob Harris, co-chair of the Independent Party of Oregon [32]
  • Antoinette Hatfield, former first lady of Oregon [33]
  • Phil Knight, businessman, co-founder of Nike [34] [9]

Organizations

Newspapers

Greg Wooldridge
State legislators

Organizations

Debates

Host
network		DateLink(s)Participants
Knute
Buehler		Sam
Carpenter		Greg
Wooldridge
KXL-FM May 11, 2018 [51] InvitedInvitedInvited

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Knute
Buehler		Sam
Carpenter		Lori
Chavez-DeRemer		Greg
Wooldridge		OtherUndecided
Global Strategy Group (D) [52] May 3–6, 2018438± 4.7%33%25%–8%–33%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) [53] April 19–22, 20181,013± 3.1%39%24%–12%6% [a] 20%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) [54] March 19–25, 2018628–23%23%–4%–50%
iCitizen [55] September 13–28, 2017168± 3.9%28%–8%31%6%26%

Results

Results by county: Buehler 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Carpenter 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 2018 OR gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Buehler
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Carpenter
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Knute Buehler 144,103 45.9
Republican Sam Carpenter90,57228.8
Republican Greg C. Wooldridge63,04920.1
Republican Bruce Cuff4,8571.5
Republican Jeff Smith4,6911.5
Republican David Stauffer2,0960.7
Republican Write-ins1,7010.5
Republican Jonathan Edwards III8610.3
Republican Keenan Bohach7870.3
Republican Brett Hyland7550.2
Republican Jack W. Tacy5120.2
Total votes313,984 100

Independent Party primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Skye Allen [3]
  • Dan Pistoresi [3]
  • Patrick Starnes [3]

Results

Independent primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Independent Party Write-ins13,49756.8
Independent Party Patrick Starnes 6,030 25.4
Independent Party Skye J. Allen2,40510.6
Independent Party Dan Pistoresi1,8467.8
Total votes23,778 100.0

General election

Knute (5x5).png
Knute Buehler Campaign Logo

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [56] TossupOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [57] TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [58] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [59] Tilt DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [60] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [61] TossupNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [62] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [63] [b] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Politico [64] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Governing [65] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ Bruce Cuff and Jeff Smith with 3%
  2. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kate
Brown (D)		Knute
Buehler (R)		Other/Undecided
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [66] October 4–30, 2018October 30, 201844.0%39.7%16.3%Brown +4.3%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kate
Brown (D)		Knute
Buehler (R)		Patrick
Starnes (IPO)		OtherUndecided
Hoffman Research Group [67] October 29–30, 2018694± 3.7%45%42%4%2% [68] 7%
Emerson College [69] October 26–28, 2018747± 3.7%47%42%–7%4%
DHM Research [70] October 4–11, 2018500± 4.4%40%35%4%3% [71] 17%
Riley Research Associates [72] September 24 – October 7, 2018356± 5.0%49%45%4%3% [73] –
Clout Research (R) [74] September 20–23, 2018679± 3.8%42%41%–––
Hoffman Research Group [75] September 12–13, 2018680± 3.8%46%36%4%2% [68] 12%
Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC) [76] September 6–11, 20182,831± 2.0%41%43%–––
Clout Research (R) [77] July 30–31, 2018559± 4.1%42%43%––15%
Gravis Marketing [78] July 16–17, 2018770± 3.5%45%45%––10%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) [54] March 19–25, 20182,067± 2.2%41%46%––14%
DHM Research [79] January 25–31, 2018604± 4.0%46%29%––25%
Zogby Analytics [80] November 10–12, 2017508± 4.4%39%36%––25%
iCitizen [55] September 13–28, 2017645± 3.9%41%40%–11%8%
Hypothetical polling

with Sam Carpenter

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kate
Brown (D)		Sam
Carpenter (R)		OtherUndecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) [54] March 19–25, 20182,067± 2.2%41%46%–13%
Zogby Analytics [80] November 10–12, 2017508± 4.4%38%36%–26%

with Greg Wooldridge

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kate
Brown (D)		Greg
Wooldridge (R)		OtherUndecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) [54] March 19–25, 20182,067± 2.2%42%47%–11%
iCitizen [55] September 13–28, 2017645± 3.9%42%39%11%7%

with Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kate
Brown (D)		Lori
Chavez-DeRemer (R)		OtherUndecided
iCitizen [55] September 13–28, 2017645± 3.9%40%34%17%8%

Results

Oregon gubernatorial election, 2018 [81]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Kate Brown (incumbent) 934,498 50.05% −0.57%
Republican Knute Buehler 814,98843.65%+0.20%
Independent Party Patrick Starnes53,3922.86%+0.42%
Libertarian Nick Chen28,9271.55%−0.77%
Constitution Aaron Auer21,1451.13%+0.13%
Progressive Chris Henry11,0130.59%N/A
Write-in 3,0340.16%-0.01%
Total votes1,866,997 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Brown carried two out of the state's five congressional districts, losing two swing districts that simultaneously voted for Democrats in the US House, with Oregon's 4th congressional district held by veteran congressman Peter DeFazio and Oregon's 5th congressional district held by former veterinarian Kurt Schrader.

DistrictKate
Brown		Knute
Buehler		Elected
Representative
1st 53.77%40.51% Suzanne Bonamici
2nd 35.38%57.19% Greg Walden
3rd 69.17%26.45% Earl Blumenauer
4th 44.84%47.15% Peter DeFazio
5th 46.02%47.97% Kurt Schrader

By county

CountyKate Brown

Democrat

VotesKnute Buehler

Republican

VotesPatrick Starnes

Independent

VotesNick Chen

Libertarian

VotesAaron Auer

Constitution

VotesChris Henry

Progressive

VotesWrite-inVotesTotal
Baker 19.0%1,57272.9%6,0234.2%3471.6%1321.5%1260.6%490.2%158,264
Benton 60.1%26,59233.9%14,9902.8%1,2251.6%7210.8%3570.7%2930.1%5344,231
Clackamas 45.5%91,08849.2%98,4682.4%4,7261.4%2,8270.9%1,8530.5%9410.2%363200,266
Clatsop 48.0%8,90944.7%8,2943.3%6161.6%3051.4%2590.8%1400.2%3518,558
Columbia 38.7%9,51952.6%12,9534.0%9751.9%4802.0%4810.7%1670.2%4224,617
Coos 33.5%9,62257.5%16,5204.4%1,2621.8%5051.8%5100.9%2560.2%5228,727
Crook 19.8%2,28573.8%8,5163.6%4181.0%1101.2%1400.4%420.2%2511,536
Curry 35.9%4,14156.1%6,4743.8%4431.6%1881.7%1990.7%750.1%1311,533
Deschutes 42.3%40,67652.0%49,9832.9%2,7641.4%1,3530.8%7660.5%4600.1%9796,099
Douglas 24.0%11,82465.8%32,4135.0%2,4811.5%7382.7%1,3260.7%3680.2%8849,238
Gilliam 22.0%21869.6%6914.6%461.9%191.4%140.5%50.0%0993
Grant 16.8%64975.9%2,9233.9%1511.2%481.5%560.5%190.2%73,853
Harney 16.5%58476.7%2,7223.6%1260.8%291.8%630.6%200.1%33,547
Hood River 59.9%6,48535.0%3,7892.5%2711.3%1360.7%810.5%550.1%1110,828
Jackson 41.4%42,20750.7%51,6234.1%4,1961.7%1,7201.3%1,3130.7%7160.1%132101,907
Jefferson 29.8%2,63562.3%5,5184.4%3881.3%1111.6%1450.5%450.1%108,852
Josephine 30.2%12,21460.5%24,4994.3%1,7351.9%7672.2%8810.8%3080.2%6640,470
Klamath 22.3%6,30167.7%19,1344.9%1,3712.3%6432.0%5640.7%1980.2%4528,256
Lake 13.4%47678.0%2,7744.4%1551.5%522.3%810.4%140.1%53,557
Lane 54.7%96,84138.2%67,7373.2%5,6831.8%3,1061.2%2,1730.8%1,3350.2%297177,172
Lincoln 52.1%12,61040.8%9,8843.4%8251.6%3911.2%3020.7%1640.2%4324,219
Linn 30.1%16,46160.5%33,0514.2%2,2931.9%1,0612.2%1,2040.8%4210.3%17154,662
Malheur 24.1%2,15966.9%6,0004.1%3641.7%1562.5%2270.6%520.1%128,970
Marion 43.5%55,23849.9%63,3232.8%3,5111.7%2,1001.4%1,8310.5%6500.3%325126,978
Morrow 22.5%84467.5%2,5344.3%1631.8%683.0%1110.8%290.1%53,754
Multnomah 73.9%279,38422.1%83,5071.7%6,3091.2%4,4470.5%1,7930.6%2,1740.1%484378,098
Polk 41.6%15,52951.8%19,3412.9%1,0761.6%5891.3%4910.6%2060.2%8337,315
Sherman 19.3%19074.7%7363.5%340.7%71.5%150.2%20.1%1985
Tillamook 42.7%5,61650.3%6,6063.5%4641.2%1581.5%2020.6%770.1%1913,142
Umatilla 29.4%7,08563.0%15,1783.7%8851.7%4191.6%3930.5%1170.1%3124,108
Union 24.5%2,87767.9%7,9833.8%4411.4%1621.8%2090.5%600.2%2411,756
Wallowa 27.0%1,08866.2%2,6683.6%1451.2%471.5%610.5%190.1%44,032
Wasco 40.5%4,60451.4%5,8413.8%4271.8%2031.6%1770.7%850.2%2011,357
Washington 55.5%137,88639.2%97,2862.2%5,5351.7%4,2290.8%2,0100.5%1,1610.1%372248,479
Wheeler 19.3%15872.6%5944.6%381.8%151.2%100.4%30.0%0818
Yamhill 39.1%17,93153.3%24,4123.3%1,5031.9%8851.6%7210.6%2870.2%8145,820

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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  2. ↑ Borrud, Hillary (September 25, 2017). "Kate Brown announces she will seek re-election". The Oregonian . Retrieved September 26, 2017.
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  13. ↑ "Bend businessman Sam Carpenter declares bid for governor". KTVZ. October 25, 2017. Archived from the original on October 29, 2017. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
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  29. ↑ "I'm proud to endorse fellow Roseburg native, friend and colleague Knute Buehler for Governor. He'll bring the..." Twitter. October 7, 2017.
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  31. ↑ Warner, Gary A. (August 14, 2017). "Where were you in '82?". The Bulletin . Retrieved August 19, 2017.
  32. ↑ Knute Buehler. "Proud to have the endorsement of the Independent Party Co-Chair Rob Harris. We need new leadership to solve the big problems in our state. I will lead where Kate Brown has failed. #orpol #knuteforgov". Twitter.
  33. ↑ Knute Buehler. "Honored to have the support of a woman who has dedicated her life to making Oregon a better place and to call her a friend. #orpol #knuteforgov". Twitter.
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  35. ↑ "NFIB Oregon PAC Endorses Knute Buehler for Governor". NFIB. August 13, 2018.
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  37. ↑ "Editorial: Vote Buehler in Republican primary". The Bulletin . April 23, 2018.
  38. ↑ "Editorial: Buehler the best choice for Oregon". The Bulletin . October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 18, 2018.
  39. ↑ "WW's May 2018 Endorsements for Oregon Statewide Office". Willamette Week . April 25, 2018.
  40. ↑ "For governor: Brown, Buehler". The Register-Guard . April 28, 2018. Archived from the original on May 5, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2018.
  41. ↑ "Oregon needs experience, decisive leadership to improve: Editorial endorsements". The Oregonian . April 29, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2018.
  42. ↑ "Editorial endorsement: Knute Buehler for Oregon governor". The Oregonian . October 14, 2018. Retrieved October 16, 2018.
  43. ↑ "Our opinion: Vote for Buehler in GOP governor primary". Portland Tribune . May 7, 2018. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  44. ↑ "Our Opinion: Buehler brings necessary tension". Portland Tribune . October 16, 2018. Retrieved October 16, 2018.
  45. ↑ McInally, Mike (October 17, 2018). "Editorial: Knute Buehler for governor of Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times .
  46. ↑ "Our View: Leadership needed for Oregon". The Daily Astorian . October 22, 2018.
  47. ↑ "Buehler for Governor". East Oregonian . October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  48. ↑ "Our View: Buehler would bring change as governor". Blue Mountain Eagle . October 23, 2018.
  49. ↑ "Bill Post endorses Capt. Greg Wooldridge for governor". Wooldridge For Governor. April 18, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018.
  50. ↑ "ENDORSEMENT: Right to Life endorses Wooldridge". Wooldridge For Governor. March 8, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018.
  51. ↑ Lars Larson Debate – YouTube
  52. ↑ Global Strategy Group (D)
  53. ↑ Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)
  54. 1 2 3 4 Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)
  55. 1 2 3 4 iCitizen
  56. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  57. ↑ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post . October 16, 2018.
  58. ↑ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  59. ↑ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  60. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  61. ↑ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . October 9, 2018.
  62. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos . June 5, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  63. ↑ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News .
  64. ↑ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico .
  65. ↑ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  66. ↑ Real Clear Politics
  67. ↑ Hoffman Research Group
  68. 1 2 Aaron Auer (C) and Nick Chen (L) with 1%
  69. ↑ Emerson College
  70. ↑ DHM Research
  71. ↑ Nick Chen (L) and Chris Henry (P) with 1%, Aaron Auer (C) with <1%, somebody else with 1%
  72. ↑ Riley Research Associates
  73. ↑ Nick Chen (L) with 2%, Aaron Aauer (C) with 1%
  74. ↑ Clout Research (R)
  75. ↑ Hoffman Research Group
  76. ↑ Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC)
  77. ↑ Clout Research (R)
  78. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  79. ↑ DHM Research
  80. 1 2 Zogby Analytics
  81. ↑ Content Manager WebDrawer – 2018 General Election Official Results

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