2014 United States Senate election in Oregon

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2014 United States Senate election in Oregon
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  Merkley official photo (cropped).jpg Dr. Monica Wehby (cropped).jpg
Nominee Jeff Merkley Monica Wehby
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote814,537538,847
Percentage55.73%36.87%
2014 United States Senate election in Oregon results map by county.svg
County results
Merkley:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Wehby:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Jeff Merkley
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jeff Merkley
Democratic

The 2014 United States Senate election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oregon, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Oregon, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley successfully ran for reelection to a second term. Despite it being a national midterm Republican wave, this was actually a stronger Senate election for him in terms of margin of victory, winning by almost 20% and carrying nine additional counties he had lost in 2008. [1] Primary elections were held on May 20, 2014. Merkley easily won the Democratic nomination, while the Republicans nominated pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby. Initially, the race was considered potentially competitive, but Wehby's campaign began to collapse after she faced multiple allegations of stalking and harassment from former partners, and was found to have plagiarized portions of her campaign website. [2]

Background

Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, had narrowly defeated two-term Republican incumbent Gordon H. Smith with 49% of the vote in 2008.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • William Bryk, attorney from New York and perennial candidate [3]
  • Pavel Goberman, fitness instructor and perennial candidate [4]
  • Jeff Merkley, incumbent senator [1]

Results

Democratic primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jeff Merkley (incumbent) 277,120 92.04%
Democratic William Bryk11,3303.76%
Democratic Pavel Goberman8,4362.81%
write-ins 4,1941.39%
Total votes301,080 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Sam Carpenter, businessman [10]

Declined

Endorsements

Jason Conger

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Monica Wehby

Individuals

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Callahan		Jason
Conger		Tim
Crawley		Jo Rae
Perkins		Monica
Wehby		Undecided
Benenson Strategy Group [21] April 14–17, 2014410± ?—24%——22%55%
Wenzel Strategies [22] May 1–4, 2014607± ?4%22%3%3%43%26%
Public Opinion Strategies [23] May 12–13, 2014500± 4.38%2%24%2%2%41%26%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Wehby 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Conger 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Oregon Senate election 2014 Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Wehby
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Conger
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Monica Wehby 134,627 49.96%
Republican Jason Conger 101,40137.63%
Republican Mark Callahan 18,2206.76%
Republican Jo Rae Perkins 7,6022.82%
Republican Tim Crawley6,5662.44%
Write-in 1,0270.39%
Total votes266,438 100.00%

Independents

The filing deadline for independent candidates is August 26, 2014. In order to qualify, a candidate must submit 17,893 signatures of registered voters or obtain signatures from at least 1,000 electors at a valid assembly of electors. [24]

Candidates

Declared

  • Karl King, massage therapist [25]

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [26] Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [27] Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [28] Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [29] Likely DNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Merkley (D)		Monica
Wehby (R)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling [30] April 1–2, 2014670± 3.91%46%34%—20%
Benenson Strategy Group [21] April 14–17, 2014600± 4%52%32%—16%
Rasmussen Reports [31] May 21–22, 2014750± 4%47%37%5%11%
Public Policy Polling [32] May 22–27, 2014956± 3.2%50%36%—15%
The Tarrance Group* [33] June 1–3, 2014615± 4.1%41%39%9% [34] 11%
SurveyUSA [35] June 5–9, 2014560± 4.2%50%32%9%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [36] July 5–24, 20142,088± 2.6%53%39%1%7%
SurveyUSA [37] August 1–5, 2014564± 4.2%52%33%7%9%
Moore Information^ [38] August 5–9, 2014500± 4%47%38%—16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [39] August 18 – September 2, 20141,541± 4%51%39%1%9%
Rasmussen Reports [31] September 2–3, 2014750± 4%48%35%5%12%
Polling Company/WomanTrend [40] September 9–11, 2014600± 4%42%34%7% [41] 14%
SurveyUSA [42] September 22–24, 2014568± 4.2%52%32%8%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [43] September 20 – October 1, 20141,508± 3%52%39%1%8%
DHM Research [44] October 2014?± 4.3%47%26%6%19%
SurveyUSA [45] October 16–19, 2014561± 4.2%53%32%7%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [43] October 16–23, 20141,421± 4%51%39%1%9%
SurveyUSA [46] October 23–27, 2014552± 4.3%53%32%8%6%
Elway Research [47] October 26–27, 2014403± 5%49%30%3% [48] 18%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Merkley (D)		Allen
Alley (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [49] June 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%43%37%—20%
Public Policy Polling [50] December 3–5, 2012614± 4%53%36%—12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Merkley (D)		Jason
Atkinson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [49] June 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%43%34%—23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Merkley (D)		Jason
Conger (R)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling [30] April 1–2, 2014670± 3.91%47%40%—12%
Benenson Strategy Group [21] April 14–17, 2014600± 4%50%34%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Merkley (D)		Bruce
Hanna (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [49] June 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%43%35%—23%
Public Policy Polling [50] December 3–5, 2012614± 4%52%34%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Merkley (D)		Gordon
Smith (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [50] December 3–5, 2012614± 4%47%43%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Merkley (D)		Bruce
Starr (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [50] December 3–5, 2012614± 4%52%32%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Merkley (D)		Greg
Walden (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [49] June 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%40%42%—18%
Public Policy Polling [50] December 3–5, 2012614± 4%47%42%—11%

Results

United States Senate election in Oregon, 2014 [51]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jeff Merkley (incumbent) 814,537 55.73% +6.83%
Republican Monica Wehby 538,84736.87%−8.68%
Libertarian Mike Monchalin44,9163.07%N/A
Pacific Green Christina Jean Lugo32,4342.22%N/A
Constitution James E. Leuenberger24,2121.66%−3.58%
Write-in 6,6720.45%N/A
Total votes1,461,618 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Pope, Charles (April 16, 2012). "Oregon's Jeff Merkley raises money early to fight Senate opponents in 2014". The Oregonian. Retrieved December 12, 2012.
  2. ↑ Staver, Anna (November 4, 2014). "Sen. Jeff Merkley decisively defeats Monica Wehby". Statesman Journal.
  3. ↑ Jaquiss, Nigel (March 6, 2014). "New Yorker Files to Run Against Merkley In May Primary". Willamette Week . Retrieved March 12, 2014.
  4. ↑ Joanna Evoniuk and Scott Reynolds (September 13, 2013). "Four Challenge Merkley's U.S. Senate Seat For 2014 Election". Lane Today. Retrieved October 11, 2013.
  5. 1 2 "May 20, 2014 Primary Election Abstract of Votes: United States Senator". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved June 26, 2014.
  6. 1 2 McInally, Mike (August 16, 2013). "Jo Rae Perkins of Albany announces bid for U.S. Senate". Albany Democrat-Herald . Retrieved August 19, 2013.
  7. ↑ Mapes, Jeff (October 10, 2013). "Jason Conger sets U.S. Senate announcement for Tuesday in Oregon City and Bend". Oregon Live. Retrieved October 14, 2013.
  8. ↑ Mapes, Jeff (November 4, 2013). "GOP hits Jeff Merkley on Obamacare as new Republican enters Senate race: Oregon politics today". The Oregonian . Retrieved November 4, 2013.
  9. ↑ Gaston, Christian (October 29, 2013). "Portland doctor Monica Wehby will seek to unseat Democrat Jeff Merkley". The Oregonian . Retrieved October 30, 2013.
  10. ↑ Mapes, Jeff (November 4, 2013). "Sam Carpenter drops out of GOP primary for U.S. Senate race in favor of Jason Conger". The Oregonian . Retrieved November 4, 2013.
  11. ↑ "Bruce Hanna decides not to run for re-election -- or, for now, another seat: Oregon politics today". Oregon Live. September 20, 2013.
  12. ↑ Mapes, Jeff (November 29, 2012). "Is Senate GOP trying to recruit a challenger to Jeff Merkley through news media?". The Oregonian. Retrieved December 12, 2012.
  13. ↑ "Gordon Smith finds happiness in private sector, has no plans to seek office". Oregon Live. August 6, 2012.
  14. ↑ "Republicans Pick Walden as New NRCC Chairman". Roll Call. November 14, 2012.
  15. ↑ "Rick Santorum endorses Jason Conger, praising his opposition to gay marriage and abortion". Oregon Live. May 14, 2014. Retrieved May 15, 2014.
  16. 1 2 "U.S. Senate Jason Conger Republican Primary". Willamette Week. April 30, 2014. Archived from the original on May 2, 2014. Retrieved May 2, 2014.
  17. ↑ "Conger best Republican to take on Merkley". Statesman Journal. May 10, 2014. Retrieved May 15, 2014.
  18. ↑ "Newt Gingrich provides Monica Wehby with another out-of-state endorsement in Senate race". OregonLive.com. April 29, 2014. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
  19. ↑ "Mitt Romney joins national GOP figures in endorsing Monica Wehby in Oregon Senate race". OregonLive.com. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
  20. ↑ "Oregon's Republicans should vote for Monica Wehby: Editorial endorsement". April 26, 2014. Retrieved May 2, 2014.
  21. 1 2 3 Benenson Strategy Group
  22. ↑ Wenzel Strategies
  23. ↑ Public Opinion Strategies
  24. ↑ "Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Oregon". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 12, 2014.
  25. ↑ Reynolds, Scott (January 31, 2014). "U.S. Senate Candidate Profile: Karl King". Lane Today. Retrieved March 12, 2014.
  26. ↑ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  27. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  28. ↑ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  29. ↑ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  30. 1 2 Harper Polling
  31. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  32. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  33. ↑ The Tarrance Group*
  34. ↑ Karl King (I) 5%, Mike Montchalin (L) 4%
  35. ↑ SurveyUSA
  36. ↑ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  37. ↑ SurveyUSA
  38. ↑ Moore Information^
  39. ↑ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  40. ↑ Polling Company/WomanTrend
  41. ↑ Christina Lugo (G) 4%, Mike Montchalin (L) 3%
  42. ↑ SurveyUSA
  43. 1 2 CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  44. ↑ DHM Research
  45. ↑ SurveyUSA
  46. ↑ SurveyUSA
  47. ↑ Elway Research
  48. ↑ Christina Lugo (G) 1%, Mike Montchalin (L) 2%
  49. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
  50. 1 2 3 4 5 Public Policy Polling
  51. ↑ "November 4, 2014, General Election, Official Abstract of Votes: US Senator". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2014.

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