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Little: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Jordan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Idaho |
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The 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the next governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term, [1] and the state's primaries were held on May 15. [2]
Former state representative Paulette Jordan was the Democratic Party's nominee. She was the first Democratic nominee from Northern Idaho since Cecil Andrus, who was first elected governor in 1970. [3]
Jordan lost to incumbent lieutenant governor Brad Little by 21.6 percentage points, for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.
A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in 2014 (439,830 votes).The previous high was 452,535 votes in 2010.
Incumbent governor Butch Otter chose not to run for reelection for a fourth term in office. [1]
Lieutenant Governor Brad Little indicated in June 2016 that he would run for Governor, a decision described as "early" by the Idaho Statesman . [14] Little was characterized as a politician favored by members of the party establishment, including Otter and U.S. Senator Jim Risch. [15]
Representative Raúl Labrador chose to forgo reelection in the 1st district in favor of a gubernatorial candidacy. Labrador, a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, was considered the most conservative candidate in the primary. [16] As a candidate, Labrador suggested that he would be open to overruling Medicaid expansion in the event the state's 2018 ballot measure on the issue passed. [17]
Physician and Boise-area property developer Tommy Ahlquist, a first time candidate, touted his non-political background and pledged to cut regulations to encourage growth. [18] Ahlquist notably received the support of 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. [19]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tommy Ahlquist | Raul Labrador | Brad Little | Lisa Marie | Lawrence Wasden* | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dan Jones & Associates | February 26 – March 15, 2018 | – | – | 21% | 25% | 17% | – | – | 6% | 31% |
Dan Jones & Associates | November 8–15, 2017 | 619 | ± 3.9% | 14% | 17% | 21% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 36% |
Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador) Archived December 1, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | October 11–12, 2017 | 714 | ± 3.7% | 21% | 37% | 23% | – | – | – | 19% |
*–Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | |||||||
Tommy Ahlquist | Raúl Labrador | Brad Little | |||||
1 | Apr. 10, 2018 | Greater Idaho Falls Chamber of Commerce KIDK Compass Academy | Todd Kunz | YouTube | P | N | P |
2 | Apr. 23, 2018 | Idaho Public Television | Melissa Davlin | YouTube | P | P | P |
3 | May 1, 2018 | KTVB Northwest Nazarene University | Dee Sarton | YouTube | P | P | P |
Little ultimately won the primary with 37.3% of the vote, with Labrador taking 32.6% and Ahlquist taking 26.2%. Little's campaign performed best in Boise metropolitan area and agrarian communities in the southwestern part of the state. Labrador performed best in areas in the 1st congressional district, located in the northern part of the state. Ahlquist, a Mormon, saw a better performance in eastern counties, which has a notable Latter Day Saint (LDS) presence. [55]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Brad Little | 72,518 | 37.3 | |
Republican | Raúl Labrador | 63,460 | 32.6 | |
Republican | Tommy Ahlquist | 50,977 | 26.2 | |
Republican | Lisa Marie | 3,390 | 1.7 | |
Republican | Steve Pankey | 2,701 | 1.4 | |
Republican | Harley Brown | 874 | 0.4 | |
Republican | Dalton Cannady | 528 | 0.3 | |
Total votes | 194,448 | 100.0 |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
A.J. Balukoff | Paulette Jordan | |||||
1 | May 1, 2018 | KTVB Northwest Nazarene University | Dee Sarton | YouTube | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Paulette Jordan | 38,483 | 58.4 | |
Democratic | A.J. Balukoff | 26,403 | 40.1 | |
Democratic | Peter Dill | 964 | 1.5 | |
Total votes | 65,850 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [86] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post [87] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [88] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report [89] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [90] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [91] | Safe R | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos [92] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News [93] [lower-alpha 1] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Politico [94] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Governing [95] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Dates | Location | Little | Jordan | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 15, 2018 | Boise, Idaho | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Brad Little (R) | Paulette Jordan (D) | Bev Boeck (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 838 | – | 55% | 39% | 3% | 2% [96] | – |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) | August 2–5, 2018 | 826 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 28% | – | 5% | 31% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) | July 12–15, 2018 | 1,061 | ± 2.8% | 38% | 28% | – | 7% | 26% |
Dan Jones & Associates Archived September 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 22 – July 9, 2018 | 606 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 31% | 5% | 8% [97] | 13% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Brad Little | 361,661 | 59.76% | +6.24% | |
Democratic | Paulette Jordan | 231,081 | 38.19% | −0.36% | |
Libertarian | Bev "Angel" Boeck | 6,551 | 1.08% | −2.99% | |
Constitution | Walter L. Bayes | 5,787 | 0.96% | −0.23% | |
Independent | Lisa Marie (write-in) | 51 | 0.0% | N/A | |
Total votes | 605,131 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
Little won both congressional districts. [98]
District | Little | Jordan | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 63% | 35% | Raúl Labrador (115th Congress) |
Russ Fulcher (116th Congress) | |||
2nd | 56% | 42% | Mike Simpson |
James Elroy Risch is an American lawyer and politician who has served as the junior United States senator from Idaho since 2009. A member of the Republican Party, he served as lieutenant governor of Idaho under governors Dirk Kempthorne and Butch Otter. He also served from May 2006 to January 2007 as the 31st governor of Idaho.
Bradley Jay Little is an American politician serving as the 33rd governor of Idaho since January 2019. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 42nd lieutenant governor of Idaho from 2009 to 2019 and as an Idaho state senator from 2001 to 2009.
Russell Mark Fulcher is an American businessman and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Idaho's 1st congressional district since 2019. A member of the Republican Party, he represented the 21st district in the Idaho Senate from 2005 to 2012 and the 22nd district from 2012 until 2014.
Raúl Rafael Labrador is an American lawyer and politician who has served as the 33rd attorney general of Idaho since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he was the U.S. representative for Idaho's 1st congressional district from 2011 to 2019 and chaired the Idaho Republican Party from 2019 to 2020. Prior to this, Labrador represented the 14B district in the Idaho House of Representatives from 2006 to 2010.
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