2018 Idaho gubernatorial election

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2018 Idaho gubernatorial election
Flag of Idaho.svg
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  Brad Little official photo (cropped).jpg PauletteJordanIF7a (cropped).jpg
Nominee Brad Little Paulette Jordan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote361,661231,081
Percentage59.76%38.19%
2018 Idaho gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
ID Governor 2018.svg
Little:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Jordan:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Governor before election

Butch Otter
Republican

Elected Governor

Brad Little
Republican

The 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the next governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican governor Butch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term, [1] and the state's primaries were held on May 15. [2]

Contents

Former state representative Paulette Jordan was the Democratic Party's nominee. She was the first Democratic nominee from Northern Idaho since Cecil Andrus, who was first elected governor in 1970. [3]

Jordan lost to incumbent lieutenant governor Brad Little by 21.6 percentage points, for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.

A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in 2014 (439,830 votes).The previous high was 452,535 votes in 2010.

Republican primary

Incumbent governor Butch Otter chose not to run for reelection for a fourth term in office. [1]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Lieutenant Governor Brad Little indicated in June 2016 that he would run for governor, a decision described as "early" by the Idaho Statesman . [14] Little was characterized as a politician favored by members of the party establishment, including Otter and U.S. senator Jim Risch. [15]

Representative Raúl Labrador chose to forgo reelection in the 1st district in favor of a gubernatorial candidacy. Labrador, a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, was considered the most conservative candidate in the primary. [16] As a candidate, Labrador suggested that he would be open to overruling Medicaid expansion in the event the state's 2018 ballot measure on the issue passed. [17]

Physician and Boise-area property developer Tommy Ahlquist, a first time candidate, touted his non-political background and pledged to cut regulations to encourage growth. [18] Ahlquist notably received the support of 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. [19]

Endorsements

Tommy Ahlquist

U.S. Governors (current and former)

Republican National Committee members

Mayors

Individuals

Celebrities

Raúl Labrador

U.S. senators

State legislators (current and former)

Individuals

Political Action Committees

  • Protect Freedom PAC [26]

Trade Associations

  • Inland Pacific Chapter of Associated Builders and Contractors (IPC-ABC) [32]

Organizations

  • Idaho Chooses Life [33]
  • Family Policy Alliance of Idaho [34]
Brad Little

U.S. governors (current and former)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide elected officials (current and former)

State legislators (current and former)

Newspapers

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tommy
Ahlquist		Raul
Labrador		Brad
Little		Lisa
Marie		Lawrence
Wasden*		OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & Associates [55] February 26 – March 15, 2018––21%25%17%––6%31%
Dan Jones & Associates [56] November 8–15, 2017619± 3.9%14%17%21%4%4%5%36%
Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador) [57] October 11–12, 2017714± 3.7%21%37%23%–––19%

*–Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.

Forum & Debates

2018 Idaho gubernatorial election republican primary candidate forum & debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Republican Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Tommy Ahlquist Raúl Labrador Brad Little
1Apr. 10, 2018Greater Idaho Falls Chamber of Commerce
KIDK
Compass Academy		Todd Kunz [58] PNP
2Apr. 23, 2018Idaho Public TelevisionMelissa Davlin [59] PPP
3May 1, 2018 KTVB
Northwest Nazarene University 		Dee Sarton [60] PPP

Results

Little ultimately won the primary with 37.3% of the vote, with Labrador taking 32.6% and Ahlquist taking 26.2%. Little's campaign performed best in Boise metropolitan area and agrarian communities in the southwestern part of the state. Labrador performed best in areas in the 1st congressional district, located in the northern part of the state. Ahlquist, a Mormon, saw a better performance in eastern counties, which has a notable Latter Day Saint (LDS) presence. [61]

Results by county: Little 50-60% 40-50% 30-40% Labrador 40-50% 30-40% Ahlquist 40-50% 30-40% Idaho gubernatorial Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
Little
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Labrador
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Ahlquist
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Brad Little 72,518 37.3
Republican Raúl Labrador 63,46032.6
Republican Tommy Ahlquist 50,97726.2
Republican Lisa Marie3,3901.7
Republican Steve Pankey2,7011.4
Republican Harley Brown8740.4
Republican Dalton Cannady5280.3
Total votes194,448 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

A. J. Balukoff

U.S. representatives (current and former)

Statewide officials (current and former)

State legislators (current and former)

Democratic National Committee officials (current and former)

Local and municipal officials (current and former)

Newspapers

Organizations

Paulette Jordan

State legislators (current and former)

Individuals

Organizations

Debate

2018 Idaho gubernatorial election democratic primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
A.J. Balukoff Paulette Jordan
1May 1, 2018 KTVB
Northwest Nazarene University 		Dee Sarton [92] PP

Results

Results by county: Jordan 80-90% 70-80% 60-70% 50-60% 40-50% Jordan/Balukoff tie 40-50% Balukoff 50-60% 60-70% Idaho gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
Jordan
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
Jordan/Balukoff tie
  •   40–50%
Balukoff
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Paulette Jordan 38,483 58.4
Democratic A.J. Balukoff26,40340.1
Democratic Peter Dill9641.5
Total votes65,850 100.0

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Adam Phillips [9]
  • Michael Richardson [5]
  • John Thomas Wiechec [9]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [93] Safe ROctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [94] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [95] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [96] Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [97] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [98] Safe RNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [99] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [100] [a] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Politico [101] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Governing [102] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

DatesLocationLittleJordanLink
October 15, 2018 Boise, Idaho ParticipantParticipant Full debate [103] - C-SPAN

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Brad
Little (R)		Paulette
Jordan (D)		Bev
Boeck (L)		OtherUndecided
Change Research [104] November 2–4, 2018838–55%39%3%2% [105] –
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) [106] August 2–5, 2018826± 3.2%36%28%–5%31%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) [107] July 12–15, 20181,061± 2.8%38%28%–7%26%
Dan Jones & Associates [108] June 22 – July 9, 2018606± 4.0%43%31%5%8% [109] 13%

Results

Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Brad Little 361,661 59.76% +6.24%
Democratic Paulette Jordan 231,08138.19%−0.36%
Libertarian Bev "Angel" Boeck6,5511.08%−2.99%
Constitution Walter L. Bayes5,7870.96%−0.23%
Independent Lisa Marie (write-in)510.0%N/A
Total votes605,131 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Little won both congressional districts. [110]

DistrictLittleJordanRepresentative
1st 63%35% Raúl Labrador (115th Congress)
Russ Fulcher (116th Congress)
2nd 56%42% Mike Simpson

See also

Related Research Articles

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References

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  87. ↑ "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  88. ↑ Locher, John (January 24, 2018). "Cher endorses Paulette Jordan for Idaho governor". Moscow-Pullman Daily News . Retrieved February 20, 2018.
  89. 1 2 3 "Who's With Paulette? - Jordan for Governor" . Retrieved August 10, 2021.
  90. ↑ Kruesi, Kimberley (March 15, 2018). "Democratic Governor Candidates Begin Collecting Endorsements". U.S. News & World Report . Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  91. ↑ "Paulette Jordan". Our Revolution. Archived from the original on May 15, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  92. ↑ YouTube
  93. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  94. ↑ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post . October 16, 2018.
  95. ↑ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  96. ↑ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  97. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  98. ↑ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . October 9, 2018.
  99. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos . June 5, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  100. ↑ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News . October 10, 2021.
  101. ↑ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico .
  102. ↑ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  103. ↑ Full debate
  104. ↑ Change Research
  105. ↑ Walter Bayes with 2%
  106. ↑ Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)
  107. ↑ Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)
  108. ↑ Dan Jones & Associates Archived September 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  109. ↑ Walter Bayes (C) with 3%, someone else with 5%
  110. ↑ "Dra 2020".

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