2010 Idaho gubernatorial election

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2010 Idaho gubernatorial election
Flag of Idaho.svg
←  2006 November 2, 2010 2014  →
  Butchotter (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg 3x4.svg
Nominee Butch Otter Keith G. AllredJana Kemp
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Popular vote267,483148,68026,655
Percentage59.11%32.85%5.89%
2010 Idaho gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Otter:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Allred:      40–50%     50–60%
Governor before election

Butch Otter
Republican

Elected Governor

Butch Otter
Republican

The 2010 Idaho gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter won re-election, defeating his Democratic opponent Keith G. Allred.

Contents

A former Lieutenant Governor and U.S. Representative, Otter won an open seat race in 2006 against Democratic Party nominee Jerry Brady with 52.67% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Campaign

Both Rammell and Ullman sought support from followers of the Tea Party movement by criticizing Otter's 2009 attempt to raise Idaho's gas tax. [5]

In August 2009, Rammell drew criticism for joking about buying a license to hunt President Barack Obama. [6]

Polling

Poll
source		Date(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Walt
Bayes		Butch
Otter		Ron"Pete"
Peterson		Rex
Rammell		Sharon
Ullman		Tamara
Wells		Un-
decided
Mason-Dixon (report)May 17–19, 2010625± 4.0%1%60%3%6%4%1%25%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Otter--70-80% Otter--60-70% Otter--50-60% Otter--40-50% Rammell--40-50% Rammell--50-60% Idaho gubernatorial Republican primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
  Otter—70–80%
  Otter—60–70%
  Otter—50–60%
  Otter—40–50%
  Rammell—40–50%
  Rammell—50–60%
Republican primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Butch Otter (incumbent)89,11754.6
Republican Rex Rammell42,43626.0
Republican Sharon Ullman13,7498.4
Republican Pete Peterson8,4025.2
Republican Walt Bayes4,8253.0
Republican Tamara Wells4,5442.8
Republican Fred Nichols380.0
Total votes163,111 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Keith G. Allred, activist and mediator [8]
  • Lee Chaney, laborer [9]

Declined

Results

Results by county: Allred--80-90% Allred--70-80% Allred--60-70% Allred--50-60% Idaho gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
  Allred—80–90%
  Allred—70–80%
  Allred—60–70%
  Allred—50–60%
Democratic primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Keith Allred22,38681.7
Democratic Lee Chaney5,02618.3
Total votes27,412 100

Third party candidates

Libertarian Party

Independents

General election

Campaign

Between January 1 and May 9, 2010, Allred led Otter in fundraising, having raised $241,000 to Otter's $193,000. Allred said, "We are picking up momentum and are right where we want to be." However, Otter limited his fundraising activity while the Idaho Legislature was in session. [12]

Allred has criticized Otter for backing cuts to public education spending, which led the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry to launch a website attacking Allred. [5]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [13] Safe ROctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [14] Safe ROctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [15] Safe RNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [16] Likely ROctober 28, 2010
CQ Politics [17] Likely ROctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredButch Otter (R)Keith Allred (D)
Rasmussen Reports August 31, 201052%36%
Rasmussen Reports July 15, 201053%36%
Rasmussen Reports May 11, 201054%32%
Rasmussen Reports March 23, 201060%28%

Results

Idaho gubernatorial election, 2010 [18]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Butch Otter (incumbent)267,48359.11%+6.44%
Democratic Keith G. Allred 148,68032.85%−11.25%
Independent Jana M. Kemp26,6555.89%
Libertarian Ted Dunlap5,8671.30%−0.31%
Independent Pro-Life 3,8500.85%−0.77%
Majority118,80326.25%+17.69%
Turnout 452,535
Republican hold Swing

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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References

  1. ↑ "Gov. Otter files candidacy papers for re-election". KBOI-TV. March 12, 2010. Archived from the original on July 18, 2011. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
  2. 1 2 "Three in, one out in Guv's race". The Spokesman-Review . March 8, 2010. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
  3. ↑ Kunz, Aaron (May 13, 2009). "Rex Rammell Announcement To Run For Governor". KPVI-DT. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
  4. ↑ "Ada County Commissioner Sharon Ullman will run for governor in 2010". Idaho Statesman . July 14, 2009. Archived from the original on February 8, 2013. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
  5. 1 2 Miller, John (May 25, 2010). "Otter, Allred win their Idaho primaries". Idaho State Journal . Retrieved June 6, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  6. ↑ "Idaho Republican, governor hopeful Rex Rammell makes 'Obama tags' joke about hunting President Obama". Daily News . August 28, 2009. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
  7. 1 2 "Idaho Governor Primary Results". The Associated Press. May 25, 2010. Retrieved May 25, 2010.
  8. ↑ Popkey, Dan (December 11, 2009). "Keith Allred will run as a Democrat in Idaho's race for governor". Idaho Statesman . Retrieved March 15, 2010.
  9. ↑ Kunz, Aaron (July 7, 2009). "Lee Chaney Runs for Governor as Democrat". KPVI-DT. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved March 15, 2009.
  10. ↑ Brady done, but other Idaho Dems consider running again Accessed 16 August 2007 Archived July 18, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  11. ↑ "Pro-Life For Governor, 2010". ProLifeIdaho.com. Archived from the original on September 14, 2010. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
  12. ↑ Iverson-Long, Brad (May 18, 2010). "Allred leading Otter in fundraising so far in 2010". Idaho Reporter. Retrieved June 6, 2010.
  13. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  14. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  15. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  16. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  18. ↑ "2010 General Results statewide". Archived from the original on September 22, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
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