2002 California gubernatorial election

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2002 California gubernatorial election
Flag of California.svg
  1998 November 5, 2002 2003 (recall)  
Turnout36.05% Decrease2.svg5.38pp
  Gray Davis, portrait.jpg Bill Simon (3x4a).jpg Peter Camejo (3x4a).gif
Nominee Gray Davis Bill Simon Peter Camejo
Party Democratic Republican Green
Popular vote3,533,4903,169,801393,036
Percentage47.26%42.40%5.26%

2002 California gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Davis:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Simon:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%

Governor before election

Gray Davis
Democratic

Elected Governor

Gray Davis
Democratic

The 2002 California gubernatorial election was an election that occurred on November 5, 2002. Democrat Gray Davis defeated Republican Bill Simon by 5% and was re-elected to a second four-year term as Governor of California. Davis would be recalled less than a year into his next term.

Contents

The 2002 gubernatorial primary occurred in March 2002. Gray Davis faced no major competitor in the primary and won the nomination. Simon defeated former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan in the Republican primary. Gray Davis ran a series of negative ads against Riordan in the primary. Riordan was seen as a moderate and early state polls showed him defeating Gray Davis in the general election. This election is the last time that a gubernatorial candidate was elected Governor of California by a single-digit margin.

Primaries

During the 2002 election campaign, Davis took the unusual step of taking out campaign ads during the Republican primaries against Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan. Davis claimed that Riordan had attacked his record and that his campaign was defending his record. [1] Polls showed that, as a moderate, Riordan would be a more formidable challenger in the general election than a conservative candidate. Polls even showed that Riordan would defeat Davis. [2] Davis attacked Riordan with negative ads in the primary. The ads questioned Riordan's support of anti-abortion politicians and judges. [3] [4] The ads pointed out Riordan's position of wanting a moratorium on the death penalty as being to the left of Gray Davis, who strongly supported it. [5] [6] [7]

In 2000, the United States Supreme Court in California Democratic Party v. Jones struck down California's blanket primary. [8] With the end of the blanket primary, only non-partisans and registered Republicans could vote for Richard Riordan in the 2002 primary. The end of the blanket primary made it more difficult for the more moderate Riordan. It has long been known in politics that primary voters are much more ideological and strongly liberal or strongly conservative than those who vote in the general election. [9]

Additionally, the Republican primary included negative attacks between Bill Jones and Riordan. Jones highlighted in his attack ads against Riordan that Riordan had contributed money to Davis in past campaigns and had called Bill Clinton "the greatest leader in the free world." Riordan's counter ads highlighted that Jones had also contributed money to Davis. By late February 2002, Riordan's strong lead in the Republican primary had begun to slip. In the previous months of the campaign, Riordan focused his ads and energies on campaigning against Gray Davis and defending himself from Davis' attack ads. [5]

Davis' negative ads against Riordan appear to have contributed to Riordan's defeat in the Republican primary by the more staunchly conservative candidate Bill Simon. [10]

Primary results

Final results from the Secretary of State of California. [11]

Democratic

California gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2002
CandidateVotes %
Gray Davis 1,755,27680.90
Anselmo A. Chavez179,3018.26
Charles "Chuck" Pineda, Jr.139,1216.41
Mosemarie Boyd95,8574.42
Total votes2,169,555 100.00

Republican

Republican primary results by county
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Simon
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
>90%
Riordan
30-40%
40-50%
Jones
40-50%
50-60%
60-70% 2002 California gubernatorial Republican primary results map by county.svg
Republican primary results by county
  Simon
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   >90%
  Riordan
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Jones
  •   40–50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60–70%
California gubernatorial Republican primary, 2002
CandidateVotes %
Bill Simon 1,129,97349.44
Richard Riordan 715,76831.32
Bill Jones 387,23716.94
Nick Jesson19,2870.84
Edie Bukewihge14,4360.63
Danney Ball13,1560.58
Jim Dimov5,5950.24
Total votes2,285,452 100.00

Libertarian

California gubernatorial Libertarian primary, 2002
CandidateVotes %
Gary David Copeland19,07998.80
Art Olivier (write-in)2321.20
Total votes19,311 100.00

Others

California gubernatorial primary, 2002 (Others)
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Peter Miguel Camejo 35,767 100.00
American Independent Reinhold Gulke 26,269 100.00
Natural Law Iris Adam 4,402 100.00

General election

Campaign

Davis was re-elected in the November 2002 general election following a long and bitter campaign against Simon, marked by accusations of ethical lapses on both sides and widespread voter apathy. [12] Simon was also hurt by a financial fraud scandal that tarnished his reputation. [13] Davis' campaign featured several negative ads that highlighted Simon's financial fraud scandal. [14] Simon attacked Davis for supposedly fundraising in the Lieutenant Governor's office during his time as Lt. Governor, but the attack backfired when it turned out the photograph had been instead taken in a private home in Santa Monica. [15] [16] The 2002 gubernatorial race was the most expensive in California state history with over $100 million spent. [17] Davis' campaign was better financed; Davis had over $26 million in campaign reserves more than Simon in August 2002. [14] Davis won re-election with 47.3% of the vote to Simon's 42.4%. The Simon-Davis race led in the lowest turnout percentage in modern gubernatorial history, allowing for a lower than normal number of signatures required for a recall, which ultimately qualified in 2003. [18] Davis won the election but the majority of the voters disliked Davis and did not approve of his job performance. [19] [20]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [21] Lean DOctober 31, 2002
Sabato's Crystal Ball [22] Likely DNovember 4, 2002

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Gray
Davis (D)
Bill
Simon (R)
Peter
Camejo (G)
Gary
Copeland (L)
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA November 1–3, 2002563 (LV)± 4.2%45%39%8%4%5%

Results

2002 California gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gray Davis (incumbent) 3,533,490 47.26
Republican Bill Simon 3,169,80142.40
Green Peter Miguel Camejo 393,0365.26
Libertarian Gary David Copeland161,2032.16
American Independent Reinhold Gulke128,0351.71
Natural Law Iris Adam88,4151.18
Write-in 2,3710.03
Invalid or blank votes262,4703.39
Total votes7,738,821 100.00
Turnout  36.05
Democratic hold

Results breakdown

County Davis Votes Simon Votes Camejo VotesCopelandVotesOthersVotes
San Francisco 66.20%143,10215.37%33,21415.50%33,4951.41%3,0481.53%3,297
Alameda 62.83%216,05822.22%76,40711.03%37,9191.91%6,5582.02%6,959
San Mateo 57.95%99,80329.90%51,4977.86%13,5371.86%3,2052.42%4,168
Marin 56.23%49,51227.85%24,52012.16%10,7101.71%1,5022.06%1,811
Santa Cruz 56.03%43,46926.55%20,59812.13%9,4092.29%1,7773.00%2,331
Los Angeles 55.87%953,16234.86%594,7484.27%72,8862.34%39,9342.66%45,329
Santa Clara 55.33%199,39932.43%116,8626.69%24,0972.62%9,4302.94%10,608
Monterey 54.10%47,05236.25%31,5324.36%3,7942.52%2,1912.77%2,405
Imperial 53.29%11,64440.23%8,7892.50%5461.18%2582.80%612
Contra Costa 53.22%140,97535.67%94,4876.30%16,6762.23%5,8942.58%6,838
Solano 52.40%46,38537.86%33,5164.56%4,0381.49%1,3163.69%3,267
Sonoma 50.39%73,07929.93%43,40813.51%19,5992.14%3,0974.03%5,845
San Benito 48.89%6,04941.73%5,1634.07%5042.22%2753.09%382
Napa 47.76%17,51636.77%13,4839.73%3,5702.11%7743.62%1,329
Yolo 47.43%21,98337.72%17,48410.64%4,9341.17%5433.04%1,409
Lake 46.71%7,42440.64%6,4596.07%9652.11%3364.46%709
Humboldt 45.44%19,49937.56%16,11812.05%5,1702.24%9612.70%1,159
Merced 44.56%18,07147.32%19,1911.95%7923.40%1,3792.77%1,125
Santa Barbara 44.32%50,74146.15%52,8325.05%5,7852.26%2,5862.22%2,547
San Joaquin 43.54%53,74747.18%58,2393.75%4,6302.06%2,5403.47%4,287
Stanislaus 43.57%41,90847.91%46,0913.08%2,9671.44%1,3854.00%3,843
Mendocino 43.50%10,83233.45%8,33116.54%4,1192.33%5814.18%1,041
Ventura 43.21%83,55747.16%91,1933.39%6,5632.99%5,7873.25%6,287
Del Norte 43.29%2,92245.82%3,0933.07%2072.44%1655.38%363
San Bernardino 41.23%116,75750.32%142,5132.38%6,7542.29%6,4853.77%10,682
Sacramento 40.82%129,14346.60%147,4567.03%22,2322.10%6,6343.46%10,932
Alpine 40.89%22944.11%2477.14%402.68%155.18%29
San Diego 40.57%268,27851.73%342,0952.75%18,1842.08%13,7422.87%18,999
Riverside 40.25%121,84552.68%159,4401.98%5,9952.18%6,6012.91%8,802
Tuolumne 38.16%6,84651.56%9,2514.31%7731.83%3284.15%744
Fresno 37.96%59,01955.26%85,9102.26%3,5082.29%3,5602.23%3,474
Trinity 37.23%1,83349.17%2,4215.52%2722.84%1405.24%258
Kings 36.65%7,77657.56%12,2121.40%2981.16%2463.22%683
San Luis Obispo 36.40%29,73253.31%43,5525.13%4,1891.98%1,6183.18%2,599
Mono 35.99%1,06452.50%1,5525.21%1542.17%644.13%122
Orange 34.66%222,14957.43%368,1522.60%16,6702.29%14,6683.02%19,369
Amador 34.19%4,43753.91%6,9975.70%7401.90%2464.30%558
Tulare 34.07%21,29459.48%37,1721.74%1,0901.93%1,2082.77%1,734
Nevada 33.93%13,33852.33%20,5738.39%3,2971.89%7433.47%1,364
Inyo 33.62%2,11456.73%3,5673.34%2102.26%1424.06%255
Kern 33.69%46,25060.21%82,6601.43%1,9651.34%1,8393.33%4,574
Calaveras 33.25%5,05253.34%8,1045.76%8752.86%4344.80%729
Plumas 33.06%2,59854.85%4,3104.84%3802.32%1824.94%388
Mariposa 32.78%2,12657.36%3,7203.32%2152.00%1304.53%294
Tehama 32.48%5,00058.54%9,0102.35%3611.65%2544.98%767
Siskiyou 31.87%4,97258.40%9,1122.80%4372.47%3864.46%696
Lassen 31.57%2,42958.64%4,5122.01%1552.16%1665.61%432
Butte 31.63%19,43753.22%32,7069.70%5,9631.71%1,0503.74%2,301
Shasta 31.49%15,29258.95%28,6252.64%1,2831.94%9424.98%2,417
Madera 31.40%8,21761.13%15,9981.98%5171.98%5173.52%920
Sutter 29.85%5,78262.08%12,0243.20%6201.25%2423.62%702
Yuba 29.71%3,44759.50%6,9043.69%4282.15%2494.96%575
Placer 29.66%28,49561.03%58,6234.85%4,6571.56%1,5002.90%2,781
El Dorado 29.43%16,40259.03%32,8986.13%3,4181.92%1,0723.48%1,939
Sierra 29.21%42055.98%8055.01%724.66%675.15%74
Colusa 27.17%1,24365.49%2,9962.86%1311.05%483.43%157
Modoc 26.62%90063.92%2,1611.60%541.98%675.89%199
Glenn 25.86%1,68565.49%4,2682.87%1871.47%964.31%281

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

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