2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election

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2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election
Flag of North Dakota.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  Kelly Armstrong (cropped).jpg ND State Senator Merrill Piepkorn (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Kelly Armstrong Merrill Piepkorn Michael Coachman
Party Republican Democratic–NPL Independent
Running mate Michelle Strinden Patrick HartLydia Gessele
Popular vote247,05694,04320,322
Percentage68.26%25.98%5.61%
2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Armstrong:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Piepkorn:     50–60%
Governor before election

Doug Burgum
Republican

Elected Governor

Kelly Armstrong
Republican

The 2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Dakota. Incumbent Republican governor Doug Burgum decided to not seek re-election to a third term. He would ultimately decide to run for president. The Democratic–Nonpartisan League (NPL) Party has not won a governor's race in North Dakota since 1988.

Contents

The Republican nominee, U.S. representative Kelly Armstrong, was elected to his first term, easily defeating the Democratic–NPL nominee, state senator Merrill Piepkorn. Armstrong was sworn in to office in December 2024, succeeding Burgum.

Background

In November 2022, voters in the state approved a constitutional amendment limiting governors to two four-year terms, but it only applies to individuals elected after January 1, 2023, so incumbent governor Doug Burgum was still eligible to run for re-election under a grandfather clause. [1] On June 7, 2023, Burgum announced that he would instead run for the Republican nomination for president of the United States in 2024, a race he dropped out of on December 4, 2023. Despite considering running for a third term after the end of his presidential campaign, Burgum announced he would not run for a third term on January 22, 2024. [2]

Before Burgum's announcement, former state Senator and former congressional candidate Tom Campbell suggested at and considered a gubernatorial run, despite whatever choice Burgum made. [3] [4] After the decision from Burgum to not seek re-election, Campbell entered the race. [5]

On January 23, the day after Burgum's announcement, U.S. Representative Kelly Armstrong announced he would also seek the governorship, receiving far more reporting than Campbell and an endorsement from Secretary of State Michael Howe. [6] [7] [8] [9] Following Armstrong's announcement, Campbell withdrew and switched his campaign towards the House seat left open by Armstrong. [10]

On January 31, Travis Hipsher, a security guard from Neche, announced he would seek the governorship for the Democratic-NPL. [11] Hipsher described himself as a centrist. [12]

Later on February 6, perennial candidate Michael Coachman announced an independent run for governor. [13] Coachman previously ran for governor in 2020, Lieutenant Governor in 2016 and 2012, and with Secretary of State in 2018. [14]

On February 15, Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller announced her candidacy to replace Burgum. [15]

Later on March 22, it was reported that state senator Merrill Piepkorn had filed the paperwork to run, but did not announce any campaign. [16] On March 31, Travis Hipsher ended his campaign, making way for Piepkorn's announcement on April 2. [17] [18]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Kelly Armstrong

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

Statewide officials

Organizations

Tammy Miller

Statewide officials

Debates

Prairie Public Broadcasting hosted a debate between Armstrong and Miller on April 23. [34] On May 2, it was announced that the Fargo-Moorhead-West Fargo Chamber of Commerce would hold a live, in person debate on May 30. [35] A third debate was held on June 7. [36]

2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election Republican primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Kelly Armstrong Tammy Miller
1April 23, 2024 Prairie Public Broadcasting Dave Thompson YouTube PP
2May 30, 2024 FMWF Chamber of CommercePP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Kelly
Armstrong		Tammy
Miller		Undecided
WPA Intelligence [37] [A] May 20–22, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%57%19%24%
DFM Research (D) [38] [B] May 6–8, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%18%26%
Guidant Polling and Strategy [39] [C] May 4−8, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%60%19%19%

Results

Primary results by county Armstrong 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Miller 50-60% 2024 North Dakota gubernatorial Republican primary results map by county.svg
Primary results by county
  Armstrong
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Miller
  •   50-60%
Republican primary results [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kelly Armstrong
Michelle Strinden 		67,704 73.2%
Republican Tammy Miller
Josh Teigen		24,78426.8%
Total votes92,488 100.0%

Democratic-NPL Primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

  • Travis Hipsher, security guard [42]

Endorsements

Results

Democratic–NPL primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic–NPL Merrill Piepkorn
Patrick Hart 		19,609 100.0%
Total votes19,609 100.0%

Independent

Candidates

Declared

  • Michael Coachman, former Larimore city councilor and perennial candidate [44]
    • Running mate: Lydia Gessele, stay-at-home mom [45]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [46] Solid RJune 13, 2024
Inside Elections [47] Solid RJuly 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [48] Safe RJune 4, 2024
RCP [49] Solid RJuly 13, 2024
Elections Daily [50] Safe RJuly 12, 2023
CNalysis [51] Solid RAugust 17, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Kelly Armstrong (R)

Statewide officials

Debates

2024 North Dakota Gubernatorial debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic-NPL Republican Independent
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Merrill Piepkorn Kelly Armstrong Michael Coachman
1September 6, 2024Forum CommunicationsRob Port Youtube PPN
2October 8, 2024KFGO NewsPaul Jurgens, Amy Dalrymple,
and Jim Shaw		 Omny PPN
3October 10, 2024Prairie Public BroadcastingDave Thompson C-SPAN PPP
4October 14, 2024BEK TV C-SPAN PPP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Kelly
Armstrong (R)		Merrill
Piepkorn (D)		Michael
Coachman (I)		Undecided
WPA Intelligence [53] [A] September 28–30, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%54%24%3%19%
Public Opinion Strategies [54] [D] June 15–19, 2024500 (LV)± 4.38%61%22%11%6%

Results

2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election [55]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Kelly Armstrong
Michelle Strinden 		247,056 68.26% +2.42%
Democratic–NPL Merrill Piepkorn
Patrick Hart		94,04325.98%+0.60%
Independent Michael Coachman
Lydia Gessele		20,3225.61%N/A
Write-in 5300.15%-4.75%
Total votes361,951 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Notes

  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by the North Dakota News Cooperative
  2. ↑ This poll was sponsored by North Dakota United, a union for teachers and public sector workers
  3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Armstrong's campaign
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by Brighter Future Alliance

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References

  1. ↑ MacPherson, James (November 8, 2022). "North Dakota voters OK term limits for governor, legislators". Associated Press News. Retrieved November 20, 2022.
  2. 1 2 Dura, Jack (January 22, 2024). "His presidential bid over, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum says he won't seek a third term as governor". The Associated Press . Retrieved January 22, 2024.
  3. ↑ Thaden, Geoff (January 4, 2024). "Tom Campbell Poised to Enter Governor's Race Regardless of Doug Burgum's Decision on Reelection". WDAY (AM) . Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  4. ↑ Port, Rob (December 15, 2023). "Port: Former state Sen. Tom Campbell sounds like he's ready to be governor" . The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead . Archived from the original on December 15, 2023. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  5. 1 2 Larson, Chris (January 21, 2024). "Former State Senator Tom Campbell to run for Governor". WDAY . Retrieved January 22, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Kelly Armstrong, North Dakota's lone congressman, runs for governor". January 23, 2024.
  7. ↑ "Armstrong announces run for ND governor". January 23, 2024.
  8. ↑ Nazzaro, Miranda (January 23, 2024). "North Dakota lawmaker running for governor". The Hill.
  9. ↑ "North Dakota governor candidates emerge as Burgum bows out". January 22, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Tom Campbell announces bid for North Dakota's US House seat". January 26, 2024.
  11. ↑ "Democrat Travis Hipsher discusses run for ND governor". February 2024.
  12. ↑ "ND dem NPL Gubernatorial candidate Hipsher: This is "opportunity to push my ideas"". February 2, 2024.
  13. ↑ "Independent candidate Michael Coachman discusses bid for ND governor". KFYR-TV . February 11, 2024.
  14. ↑ "Former candidate who tried to recall Gov. Burgum runs again for North Dakota governor". Associated Press. February 6, 2024.
  15. ↑ "Lt. Governor Tammy Miller announces run for ND governor". KFYR-TV. February 15, 2024.
  16. ↑ Skurzewski, Joe (March 23, 2024). "Fargo Democrat Piepkorn files paperwork for gubernatorial bid; does not officially confirm campaign" . Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  17. ↑ Gick, Justin (March 31, 2024). "Democrat Travis Hipsher withdraws from the North Dakota gubernatorial race". KFYR-TV. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  18. ↑ Gick, Justin (April 2, 2024). "Democrat Merrill Piepkorn enters North Dakota's governor's race". KFYR-TV. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  19. ↑ "Armstrong announces run for ND Governor". KFYR-TV . January 23, 2024. Retrieved January 23, 2024.
  20. 1 2 Janke, Ryan. "N.D. Republican, Democratic parties endorse candidates for governor". KFGO. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  21. ↑ Monk, Jim (February 15, 2024). "Lt. Governor Tammy Miller joins race for North Dakota governor". KVRR .
  22. ↑ Jurgens, Paul. "Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller choses[sic] Josh Teigen as running mate". KFGO. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  23. ↑ Carvell, Tasha (January 26, 2023). "Tom Campbell says he'll seek N.D. GOP nomination for U.S. House". KFGO . Retrieved January 26, 2023.
  24. 1 2 3 4 Port, Rob (January 22, 2024). "Which North Dakota Republicans are running for governor and U.S. House?". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead . Retrieved January 23, 2024.
  25. 1 2 Gick, Justin (February 21, 2024). "Burgum endorses Tammy Miller for ND governor". KFYR-TV . Retrieved February 21, 2024.
  26. 1 2 Gick, Justin (April 3, 2024). "Cramer endorses Armstrong for governor". KFYR-TV . Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  27. ↑ Adragna, Anthony (January 23, 2024). "Kevin Cramer won't run for North Dakota governor". Politico . Retrieved January 23, 2024.
  28. ↑ Larson, Chris (January 29, 2024). "Fedorchak will not run for Governor in 2024". WDAY . Retrieved January 30, 2024.
  29. ↑ Fulton, Jacob (February 15, 2024). "North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak to run for US House". The Bismarck Tribune . Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  30. ↑ Springer, Patrick (January 22, 2024). "Doug Burgum will not seek 3rd term; Lt. Gov. Miller expresses interest as AG Wrigley declines". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead .
  31. ↑ Port, Rob (May 30, 2024). "Port: Trump endorses Armstrong, Fedorchak in North Dakota's Republican primaries". Jamestown Sun . Retrieved May 30, 2024.
  32. ↑ Gick, Justin (April 2, 2024). "Hoeven endorses Armstrong for governor". KFYR-TV . Retrieved April 2, 2024.
  33. ↑ "Kelly Armstrong, Michelle Strinden endorsed for Gov., Lt. Gov". April 6, 2024.
  34. ↑ "North Dakota Republican candidates headed into first debate for governor's race". InForum. April 22, 2024. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  35. ↑ "FMWF Chamber announces live Gubernatorial debate between Kelly Armstrong and Tammy Miller". WDAY Radio. May 3, 2024. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  36. ↑ Downs, Michael (June 7, 2024). "North Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary Debate | 6-7-24". WDAY . Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  37. ↑ WPA Intelligence
  38. ↑ DFM Research (D)
  39. ↑ Guidant Polling and Strategy
  40. ↑ "2024 North Dakota Election Results". Associated Press News .
  41. ↑ Hjelmstad, Gretchen (April 2, 2024). "Merrill Piepkorn launches campaign for Governor of North Dakota". KVLY-TV . Retrieved April 2, 2024.
  42. ↑ Gick, Justin (March 31, 2024). "Democrat Travis Hipsher withdraws from the North Dakota gubernatorial race". KFYR-TV . Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  43. ↑ "North Dakota Democrats endorse Merrill Piepkorn, Patrick Hart as Governor, Lieutenant Governor candidates".
  44. ↑ "Former candidate who tried to recall Gov. Burgum runs again for North Dakota governor". KFYR-TV . February 7, 2024.
  45. ↑ "Trump rally scheduled June 15 at North Dakota Capitol, but former president not expected". May 23, 2024.
  46. ↑ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  47. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  48. ↑ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  49. ↑ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  50. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  51. ↑ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  52. ↑ "Tammy Miller congratulates Kelly Armstrong on winning GOP Governor nomination". KX NEWS. June 12, 2024. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  53. ↑ WPA Intelligence
  54. ↑ Public Opinion Strategies
  55. ↑ "North Dakota Secretary of State".

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