2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska

Last updated

2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district
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←  2022 November 5, 2024 2026  →
  Nick Begich Official Campaign Profile Photo (alt crop).jpg Mary Peltola Congressional Member Portrait (2) (cropped).jpeg
Candidate Nick Begich III Mary Peltola
Party Republican Democratic
First
round		159,550
48.41%		152,828
46.37%
Maximum
round 		164,861
51.22%		156,985
48.78%
2024 U.S. House election in Alaska first round.svg
2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska by State House District.svg
2024 AK-AL election first round by precinct.svg
2024 U.S. House election in Alaska final round.svg
Begich:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Peltola:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%
U.S. Representative before election

Mary Peltola
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Nick Begich III
Republican

The 2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska from its at-large congressional district . The election coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House, elections to the United States Senate, and various other state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Mary Peltola, the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, sought a second full term in office. Peltola had been elected in an August 2022 special election to succeed deceased Republican Don Young. She won a full term the following November.

In accordance with 2020 Alaska Measure 2, the race was conducted using the state's ranked-choice voting procedures. Eleven candidates challenged Peltola in the August all-party primary. Republicans Nick Begich III, Nancy Dahlstrom, and Matthew Salisbury initially qualified for spots in the ranked-choice general election, but Dahlstrom and Salisbury withdrew shortly after the primary in a show of party unity. [1] The final general election ballot thus featured Peltola, Begich, Alaskan Independence Party nominee John Wayne Howe, and Democratic prisoner Eric Hafner.

Given Alaska's conservative lean, Peltola was considered a top target for Republicans throughout the cycle. [2] By late October, multiple outlets regarded Peltola as one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents running for reelection in the House. [3] [4] Despite Peltola's loss, she did outperform Kamala Harris in the concurrent 2024 presidential election in Alaska by about 10 points, but this was not enough to win.

Begich was declared the winner on November 20, following the tabulation of ranked-choice votes. [5]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew after advancing to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Gerald Heikes, drywall contractor and perennial candidate [11]

No Labels

Eliminated in primary

Alaskan Independence Party

Advanced to general

Independents

Eliminated in primary

  • David Ambrose [10]
  • Samuel Claesson, author [13]
  • Lady Donna Dutchess, notary, candlemaker, and candidate for U.S. House in 2022 [14]
  • Richard Mayers [10]

Primary election

Endorsements

Nick Begich (R)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Nancy Dahlstrom (R)

U.S. Presidents

Governors

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Mary Peltola (D)$7,541,673$5,396,920$2,836,013
Nick Begich (R)$982,905$851,591$172,548
Nancy Dahlstrom (R)$912,308$912,308$317,617
Source: Federal Election Commission [43]

Polling

Top four primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Nick
Begich (R)		Nancy
Dahlstrom (R)		Mary
Peltola (D)		OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D) [44] February 23 – March 4, 20241,120 (LV)± 3.0%35%10%44%2% [b] 8%
Remington Research (R) [45] [A] December 11–14, 2023672 (LV)± 4.0%28%9%42%9% [c] 11%

Results

Results by state house district: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Peltola--70-80% Peltola--60-70% Peltola--50-60% Peltola--40-50% Peltola--30-40% Begich--30-40% Begich--40-50% 2024-ak-blanket-primary-house-by-state-house-district.svg
Results by state house district:
  Peltola—70–80%
  Peltola—60–70%
  Peltola—50–60%
  Peltola—40–50%
  Peltola—30–40%
  Begich—30–40%
  Begich—40–50%

Peltola performed well in the primary, securing slightly more than 50% of the vote. She received the plurality of the vote in 33 out of 40 Alaska House of Representatives districts. [46] Her top three districts were the fourth district in Southeast Alaska (79.5% of the vote) as well as the 17th and the 19th districts located in Anchorage (75.3% and 71.0% of the vote respectively).

Blanket primary results [47]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mary Peltola (incumbent) 55,166 50.9
Republican Nick Begich III 28,803 26.6
Republican Nancy Dahlstrom (withdrew)21,57419.9
Republican Matthew Salisbury (withdrew)6520.6
Independence John Wayne Howe 621 0.6
Democratic Eric Hafner 467 0.4
Republican Gerald Heikes4240.4
Independent Lady Donna Dutchess1950.2
Independent David Ambrose1540.1
No Labels Richard Grayson 1430.1
Independent Richard Mayers1190.1
Independent Samuel Claesson890.1
Total votes108,407 100.00

General election

On August 23, Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew from the general election. [9] Despite initially stating he had no plans to withdraw, Matthew Salisbury also dropped out of the race. [48] [49] They were replaced by fifth-place finisher John Wayne Howe of the Alaskan Independence Party and sixth-place finisher Eric Hafner, a Democrat. [49] Hafner remained on the ballot even though he has never been to Alaska, and was serving a 20-year sentence in a federal penitentiary in New York. [50] The Alaska Democratic Party sued to remove Hafner from the general election ballot, but an Anchorage Superior Court judge dismissed the lawsuit. The party appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court, who upheld the lower court's decision, keeping Hafner on the ballot. [51]

Post-primary endorsements

Mary Peltola (D)

Statewide officials

Organizations

Nick Begich (R)

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

Organizations

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [67] TossupSeptember 6, 2024
Inside Elections [68] Tilt R (flip)October 31, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [69] Lean R (flip)November 4, 2024
Elections Daily [70] Lean R (flip)November 4, 2024
CNalysis [71] Tilt DNovember 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ [72] TossupOctober 22, 2024

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Mary
Peltola (D)		Nick
Begich (R)		OtherUndecided
American Viewpoint (R) [73] [B] September 14–17, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%40%44%6% [e] 10%
Cygnal (R) [74] [C] August 30 – September 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%46%45%–9%
American Viewpoint (R) [73] [B] Late August 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%45%39%–16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		RCV
round		Mary
Peltola (D)		Nick
Begich (R)		John
Wayne Howe (AIP)		Eric
Hafner (D)
Cygnal (R) [75] [C] October 14–16, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%
144.5%49.1%4.0%2.4%
245.5%49.6%4.8%Elim
347.9%52.1%ElimElim
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		RCV
round		Mary
Peltola (D)		Nick
Begich (R)		Nancy
Dahlstrom (R)		Chris
Bye (L)
Data for Progress (D) [76] February 23 – March 2, 20241,120 (LV)± 3.0%
147%39%12%3%
248%41%12%Elim
350%50%ElimElim

Debates and forums

2024 Alaska U.S. House of Representatives debates and forums
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican Independence Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
PeltolaBegichHoweHafner
1 [77] Aug. 28, 2024Alaska Oil and Gas AssociationMichelle Egan YouTube PPNN
2 [78] Oct. 8, 2024Kodiak Chamber of Commerce
KMXT (FM) 		Terry Haines YouTube PPPN
3 [79] Oct. 10, 2024Alaska Chamber of CommercePPNN
4Oct. 10, 2024 Alaska Public Media
KTUU-TV 		Rebecca Palsha
Lori Townsend		 YouTube PPNN

Results

2024 Alaska's at-large congressional district election [80] [81]
PartyCandidateFirst choiceRound 1Round 2Round 3
Votes %Votes %TransferVotes %TransferVotes %
Republican Nick Begich III 159,55048.41%159,77748.49%+267160,04448.77%+4,817164,86151.22%
Democratic Mary Peltola (incumbent)152,82846.37%152,94846.42%+1,313154,26147.01%+2,724156,98548.78%
Independence John Wayne Howe13,0103.95%13,2104.01%+66113,8714.23%-13,871Eliminated
Democratic Eric Hafner 3,4171.04%3,5581.08%-3,558Eliminated
Write-in 7500.23%Eliminated
Total votes329,555329,493328,176321,846
Inactive ballots [f] 6,360+1,3177,677+6,33014,007
Republican gain from Democratic

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Chris Bye (L) with 2%
  3. ↑ Chris Bye (L) with 7%; Richard Grayson (NL) with 2%
  4. ↑ Numbered as the 4th from 2013–2019
  5. ↑ "Someone else" with 6%
  6. ↑ Includes overvotes, undervotes, and exhausted ballots where another candidate was not ranked.

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by Begich's campaign
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the NRCC
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Begich's campaign and the NRCC

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References

  1. ↑ Acuña Buxton, Matt (September 4, 2024). "A dozen candidates have dropped out of Alaska's general election". The Alaska Current. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  2. ↑ Ruskin, Liz (August 3, 2023). "Peltola is a GOP target. She's stepped up her campaign fundraising". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  3. ↑ Klein, Matthew (October 30, 2024). "Hot to Go: The 10 Most Vulnerable House Incumbents of 2024". The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  4. ↑ Altimari, Daniela; McIntire, Mary Ellen (October 29, 2024). "Tight House races make for crowded Most Vulnerable Incumbent list". Roll Call. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  5. ↑ Bohrer, Becky (November 20, 2024). "Trump-backed Republican Nick Begich beats Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola for Alaska's only House seat". Associated Press. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  6. ↑ Fortinsky, Sarah (November 14, 2023). "Alaska's GOP lieutenant governor joins race against Dem Rep. Mary Peltola". The Hill. Retrieved November 25, 2023. Peltola officially launched her 2024 reelection bid the following month.
  7. ↑ Brooks, James (September 4, 2024). "Alaska Democrats sue to remove imprisoned out-of-state Democrat from U.S. House ballot". Alaska Beacon . Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  8. ↑ Bazail-Eimil, Eric (July 13, 2023). "Nick Begich challenging Peltola for House seat in Alaska". POLITICO. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  9. 1 2 Maguire, Sean (August 23, 2024). "Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom drops out of U.S. House race". Anchorage Daily News . Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  10. 1 2 3 4 "2024 PRIMARY ELECTION - Candidates". Alaska Secretary of State. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
  11. ↑ "2024 PRIMARY ELECTION - Candidates". Alaska Secretary of State. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
  12. ↑ Winger, Richard (September 28, 2023). "Alaska U.S. House Candidate for 2024 with 'No Labels' Qualifies for August 2024 Primary Ballot". Ballot Access News . Retrieved October 6, 2023.
  13. ↑ Samuels, Iris (June 2, 2024). "Alaska's candidate lists for legislative and congressional races are set after Saturday's deadline". Alaska Daily News. Retrieved September 12, 2024.
  14. ↑ Jarrett, Kim (November 14, 2023). "Alaska's lieutenant governor announces bid for Congress". The Center Square. Retrieved November 14, 2023.
  15. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (May 16, 2024). "Utah Senator Mike Lee endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  16. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (January 29, 2024). "Congressional candidate Nick Begich picks up big endorsement: Congressman Byron Donalds". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
  17. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (February 15, 2024). "Vivek Ramaswamy endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  18. 1 2 Downing, Suzanne (August 4, 2023). "Nick Begich starts stacking up endorsements for Congress '24". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  19. ↑ "Big Win and Nine New Endorsements". House Freedom Fund. May 8, 2024. Retrieved May 8, 2024.
  20. ↑ "Trump endorses Dahlstrom for Congress". June 17, 2024.
  21. ↑ "Governor Mike Dunleavy Endorses Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom for Congress". Alaska Native News. February 5, 2024. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  22. 1 2 Samuels, Iris (February 8, 2024). "Dahlstrom ahead of Begich but far behind Peltola in fundraising for U.S. House campaign". Anchorage Daily News . Retrieved February 15, 2024. Dahlstrom has already garnered endorsements from House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik
  23. ↑ Schilke, Rachel (April 3, 2024). "Johnson-linked PAC releases first slate of 'trailblazer' House endorsements - Washington Examiner" . Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  24. ↑ Brooks, Emily (July 29, 2024). "House GOP campaign arm releases slate of 26 'Young Gun' competitive candidates". The Hill . Retrieved July 29, 2024.
  25. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (March 30, 2024). "Murkowski won't endorse Bronson for mayor, but endorses mail-in elections in Anchorage". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  26. ↑ "ASEA/AFSCME Local 52 - PAC 2024 Primary Election Endorsements". www.afscmelocal52.org. Retrieved September 12, 2024.
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  28. ↑ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
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  31. ↑ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  32. ↑ "DMFI PAC Announces First Round of 2024 Endorsements for U.S. House". DMFI PAC. December 18, 2023. Archived from the original on December 18, 2023. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  33. ↑ Ackley, Kate (March 15, 2023). "EMILY's List: These 18 Democrats are crucial to taking House control". Roll Call . Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  34. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  35. ↑ "JDCA ANNOUNCES KEY 2024 ENDORSEMENTS". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Archived from the original on November 6, 2023. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  36. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  37. ↑ "Koniag Board of Directors Endorses Mary Peltola for U.S. Congress". Alaska Native News. March 16, 2024. Retrieved March 17, 2024.
  38. ↑ Communications (June 21, 2023). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Launches 2024 Electoral Program with Endorsement of Frontline Incumbents for U.S. House of Representatives". NARAL Pro-Choice America. Archived from the original on June 21, 2023. Retrieved June 21, 2023.
  39. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  40. ↑ Irwin, Lauren (August 1, 2024). "NRA issues rare endorsement of Democrat in backing Peltola". The Hill . Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  41. ↑ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Announces New Endorsement Slate for House in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
  42. ↑ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left .
  43. ↑ "2024 Election United States House - Alaska". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 16, 2023.
  44. ↑ Data for Progress (D)
  45. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  46. ↑ Waddick, Carrisa (August 21, 2024). "Mary Peltola tops ballot in Alaska House primary, poised for high-stakes November showdown". USA Today. Retrieved September 10, 2024.
  47. ↑ "State of Alaska 2024 PRIMARY ELECTION Election Summary Report August 20, 2024 OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). State of Alaska. September 1, 2024. Retrieved September 1, 2024.
  48. ↑ Brooks, James (August 23, 2024). "Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom quits U.S. House race after finishing behind Peltola and Begich in the primary". Alaska Beacon.
  49. 1 2 Bengel, Alex (September 3, 2024). "Alaska candidates withdraw from November ballot, shuffling voter options". KTVF.
  50. ↑ Darrell, Jack (September 3, 2024). "Eric Hafner advances to the AK US House ballot from federal prison". KRBD.
  51. ↑ Brooks, James (September 13, 2024). "Alaska Supreme Court rejects Democrats' attempt to remove candidate from U.S. House ballot". Alaska Public Media . Retrieved September 16, 2024.
  52. ↑ "Fight Like Hell PAC". Fight Like Hell PAC. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  53. ↑ Rickert, Levi (October 21, 2024). "Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski Endorses Reelection of Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola". Alaska Beacon . Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  54. ↑ Kitchenman, Andrew (October 19, 2024). "Alaska Federation of Natives endorses Peltola, opposes ranked choice repeal". Alaska Beacon . Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  55. ↑ Irwin, Lauren (August 1, 2024). "NRA issues rare endorsement of Democrat in backing Peltola". The Hill . Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  56. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (September 18, 2024). "Breaking: Donald Trump endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  57. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (September 17, 2024). "Breaking: Sen. Dan Sullivan endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  58. 1 2 3 4 5 Downing, Suzanne (August 23, 2024). "Big endorsements for Nick Begich roll in: Five U.S. House Majority leaders and AK-GOP Chairwoman Carmela Warfield are 'all in'". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
  59. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (August 29, 2024). "Big endorsement rolls in from Rep. Jim Jordan for Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved August 30, 2024.
  60. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (August 28, 2024). "In the hunt for Alaska victory, Begich gets key House Natural Resources chairman's endorsement". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved August 30, 2024.
  61. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (September 3, 2024). "Gov. Dunleavy endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  62. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (September 14, 2024). "Unanimous: Nick Begich gets endorsement of Alaska Republican Party". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  63. ↑ "AFP Action Endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Americans for Prosperity Action. September 10, 2024. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  64. ↑ Mitola, Will (September 4, 2024). "Club for Growth PAC Endorses Nick Begich In AK-AL". Club for Growth PAC. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  65. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (October 7, 2024). "Go big: Nick Begich endorsed by Gun Owners of America". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved October 8, 2024.
  66. ↑ "NFIB's FedPAC announced endorsement for Nick Begich". National Federation of Independent Business. October 24, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  67. ↑ "2024 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
  68. ↑ "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
  69. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (September 19, 2024). "Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight". University of Virginia Center for Politics . Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  70. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 26, 2024. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  71. ↑ "2024 House Forecast". October 24, 2024. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  72. ↑ "2024 House Forecast". May 28, 2024. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  73. 1 2 American Viewpoint (R)
  74. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  75. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  76. ↑ Data for Progress (D)
  77. ↑ Kitchenman, Andrew (August 28, 2024). "U.S. House candidates seek Alaska oil and gas industry support in forum". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved October 9, 2024.
  78. ↑ Brooks, James (October 9, 2024). "At U.S. House debate in Kodiak, candidates differ on future of Alaska fisheries". Alaska Beacon . Retrieved October 10, 2024.
  79. ↑ Brooks, James (October 10, 2024). "In Fairbanks, Begich and Peltola offer sharply different views of federal spending in Alaska". Alaska Beacon . Retrieved October 12, 2024.
  80. ↑ "State of Alaska 2024 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report November 5, 2024 OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2024. Retrieved November 30, 2024.
  81. ↑ "US House RCV Detailed Report" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2024. Retrieved November 30, 2024.

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