2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

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Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump (presumptive) Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Party Democratic Republican Independent Home state Delaware Florida California Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) TBA Nicole Shanahan

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

A New England state dominated by moderate voters, New Hampshire had backed Republicans in almost every presidential election since the party's formation up until 1988, making exceptions for Woodrow Wilson in 1912; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936, 1940 and 1944; and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Since the early 1990s, however, the state has begun to lean toward the Democrats at the presidential level, with Dems carrying the state by single digits in every presidential election since 1992 with the exception of George W. Bush's narrow sweep in 2000. New Hampshire is a potential battleground state due to the closeness of the 2016 election and a concurrent gubernatorial election which is expected to be competitive. However, the state has shown a much more pronounced Democratic lean at the federal level in recent years, as New Hampshire's congressional delegation, which is currently all Democrats, won reelection by comfortable margins in the 2022 House and Senate elections in spite of the national Republican advantage that year. As such, the Democratic candidate is considered the favorite to win in New Hampshire in 2024. ^[2]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[3] Environmental attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, the second state to officially grant him ballot access. ^[4]

Primary elections

New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.

Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties were held on January 23, 2024. ^[5]

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary

On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which the South Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governor Chris Sununu, Democratic senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, and the state legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes) ^[6] and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23. ^{[5] [7] [8]}

Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot. ^[9] Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formal write-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to the Democratic National Convention will still be binding. ^[10]

Popular vote share by county

  Biden

•   50–60%
•   60–70%

New Hampshire Democratic primary, January 23, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
			Joe Biden (incumbent; write-in)	79,100	63.8%
Dean Phillips	24,377	19.7%
Marianne Williamson	5,016	4.0%
Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican)	4,760	3.8%
Donald Trump (write-in) (Republican)	2,079	1.7%
Derek Nadeau	1,616	1.3%
"Ceasefire" (write-in) [11]	1,512	1.2%
Vermin Supreme	912	0.7%
John Vail	685	0.6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent)	439	0.4%
Donald Picard	371	0.3%
Paperboy Prince	326	0.3%
Paul V. LaCava	176	0.1%
Jason Michael Palmer	142	0.1%
President R. Boddie	136	0.1%
Mark Stewart Greenstein	133	0.1%
Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent)	125	0.1%
Terrisa Bukovinac	101	<0.1%
Gabriel Cornejo	86	<0.1%
Stephen P. Lyons	80	<0.1%
Frankie Lozada	73	<0.1%
Tom Koos	71	<0.1%
Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato	68	<0.1%
Star Locke	59	<0.1%
Raymond Michael Moroz	52	<0.1%
Eban Cambridge	47	<0.1%
Chris Christie (write-in) (Republican)	41	<0.1%
Richard Rist	37	<0.1%
Ron DeSantis (write-in) (Republican)	33	<0.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy (write-in) (Republican)	2	<0.1%
Other write-ins [lower-alpha 1]	1,341	1.1%
Total:	123,996	100.00%
Source: [12]

No delegates were awarded from the New Hampshire primary.

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary

The New Hampshire Republican primary was held on January 23, 2024, as the second contest of the Republican primaries, held about a week after the Iowa caucuses. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the statewide vote. The primary was won by Donald Trump, defeating Nikki Haley by eleven points.

Popular vote share by county

  Trump

•   50–60%
•   60–70%

  Haley

•   50–60%

New Hampshire Republican primary, January 23, 2024 ^{[13] [14]}

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegate count [15]
				Donald Trump	176,391	54.35%	13
Nikki Haley	140,491	43.28%	9
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	2,241	0.69%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	1,493	0.46%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	833	0.26%
Joe Biden (Write-In) (Democrat)	497	0.15%
Mike Pence (withdrawn)	404	0.12%
Ryan Binkley	315	0.10%
Mary Maxwell	287	0.09%
Robert F. Kennedy (Write-In) (Independent)	205	0.06%
Tim Scott (withdrawn)	196	0.06%
Doug Burgum (withdrawn)	180	0.06%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	108	0.03%
Rachel Swift	105	0.03%
Scott Ayers	80	0.02%
Dean Philips (Write-In) (Democrat)	79	0.02%
Darius Mitchell	74	0.02%
Glenn McPeters	49	0.02%
"Ceasefire" (Write-In)	34	0.01%
Perry Johnson (withdrawn)	26	0.01%
Peter Jedick	25	0.01%
David Stuckenberg	25	0.01%
Donald Kjornes	23	0.01%
Scott Merrell	21	0.01%
John Anthony Castro	19	0.01%
Robert Carney	15	<0.01%
Marianne Williamson (Write-In) (Democrat)	14	<0.01%
Hirsh Singh (withdrawn)	9	<0.01%
Sam Sloan	7	<0.01%
Vermin Supreme (Write-In) (Democrat)	3	<0.01%
Mark Steward Greenstein (Write-In) (Democrat)	1	<0.01%
Other write-in votes	325	0.10%
Total:	324,575	100.00%	22

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [16]	Likely D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [17]	Lean D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [18]	Lean D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [19]	Lean D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [20]	Likely D	December 30, 2023
CNN [21]	Lean D	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided
Marist College	January 15–17, 2024	1,157 (RV)	± 3.8%	52%	45%	3%
Emerson College	November 10–13, 2023	917 (RV)	± 3.3%	47%	42%	11%
University of New Hampshire/CNN	September 14–18, 2023	2,108 (LV)	± 2.2%	52%	40%	8%
Emerson College	August 9–11, 2023	837 (RV)	± 3.4%	48%	41%	11%
Saint Anselm College	June 21–23, 2023	1,065 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	40%	11%
Emerson College	March 3–5, 2023	1,025 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	38%	20%
co/efficient	January 25–26, 2023	1,179 (LV)	± 3.15%	40%	39%	21%
Emerson College	October 30 – November 1, 2022	850 (LV)	± 3.3%	45%	41%	14%
University of Massachusetts Lowell	October 14–25, 2022	600 (LV)	± 5.1%	49%	43%	8%
Emerson College	October 18–19, 2022	727 (LV)	± 3.6%	44%	43%	13%
Emerson College	September 14–15, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	46%	43%	11%
University of New Hampshire	June 16–20, 2022	845 (LV)	± 3.2%	50%	43%	8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	December 10–12, 2021	1,041 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	48%	–
Saint Anselm College [upper-alpha 1]	May 7–10, 2021	1,267 (RV)	± 2.8%	50%	43%	–

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	November 10–13, 2023	917 (RV)	± 3.3%	40%	37%	8%	1%	14%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Marist College	January 15–17, 2024	1,157 (RV)	± 3.8%	44%	41%	12%	3%
Saint Anselm College	December 18–19, 2023	1,711 (LV)	± 3.9%	49%	39%	8%	4%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	August 9–11, 2023	837 (RV)	± 3.4%	44%	39%	5%	13%

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Marist College	January 15–17, 2024	1,157 (RV)	± 3.8%	44%	47%	9%
Emerson College	November 10–13, 2023	917 (RV)	± 3.3%	39%	45%	16%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other	Undecided
Marist College	January 15–17, 2024	1,157 (RV)	± 3.8%	51%	42%	–	7%
Emerson College	November 10–13, 2023	917 (RV)	± 3.3%	46%	38%	–	16%
University of New Hampshire/CNN	September 14–18, 2023	2,108 (LV)	± 2.2%	50%	33%	15% [lower-alpha 3]	5%
Saint Anselm College	June 21–23, 2023	1,065 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	40%	10	2%
Emerson College	March 3–5, 2023	1,025 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	37%	14%	7%
University of New Hampshire	June 16–20, 2022	845 (LV)	± 3.2%	46%	47%	7%

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Vivek Ramaswamy Republican	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN	September 14–18, 2023	2,018 (LV)	± 2.2%	49%	20%	15% [lower-alpha 4]	5%

Joe Biden vs. Tim Scott

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Tim Scott Republican	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN	September 14–18, 2023	2,018 (LV)	± 2.2%	47%	34%	14% [lower-alpha 5]	5%

Joe Biden vs. Chris Christie

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Chris Christie Republican	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN	September 14–18, 2023	2,018 (LV)	± 2.2%	44%	20%	27% [lower-alpha 6]	10%

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Mike Pence Republican	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN	September 14–18, 2023	2,018 (LV)	± 2.2%	49%	20%	25% [lower-alpha 7]	5%

Joe Biden vs. Chris Sununu

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Chris Sununu Republican	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	March 3–5, 2023	1,025 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	44%	14%	6%
co/efficient	January 25–26, 2023	1,179 (LV)	± 3.15%	36%	48%	–	16%
Praecones Analytica	April 14–16, 2022	503 (RV)	± 4.6%	36%	53%	–	12%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)	December 10–12, 2021	1,041 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	48%	6%

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Bernie Sanders Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Undecided
Emerson College	November 10–13, 2023	917 (RV)	± 3.3%	47.6%	42.5%	9.8%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Undecided
Emerson College	November 10–13, 2023	917 (RV)	± 3.3%	45%	43%	12%

See also

• United States presidential elections in New Hampshire
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Reported as "scatter".
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 5%
4. Donald Trump with 9%; "Another candidate" with 6%
5. Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 4%
6. Donald Trump with 16%; "Another candidate" with 11%
7. Donald Trump with 15%; "Another candidate" with 10%

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
3. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
4. "RFK Jr. says he qualifies in N.H." POLITICO. January 24, 2024. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
5. "New Hampshire Defies National Democrats' New Calendar With January Primary Date". HuffPost. November 15, 2023. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
6. O'Keefe, Ed; Novak, Analisa (February 3, 2023). "New Hampshire battles to retain first-in-the-nation presidential primary as DNC leaders meet to vote on possible changes". CBS News. Archived from the original on February 5, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.
7. Kashinsky, Lisa; Garrity, Kelly (April 30, 2023). "Messing with New Hampshire's primary could have consequences for Biden and the ballot, senator says". Politico . Retrieved January 17, 2024.
8. Sexton, Adam (July 9, 2023). "Hassan on threat to New Hampshire primary: 'We will go first'". WMUR.com. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
9. Schneider, Elena (October 24, 2023). "Biden won't appear on New Hampshire primary ballot". Politico . Retrieved October 24, 2023.
10. Kashinsky, Lisa (October 30, 2023). "Democrats launch write-in campaign for Biden in N.H." Politico . Retrieved October 30, 2023.
11. Marrans, Daniel. "Pro-Palestine Activists Urge New Hampshire Voters To Write In 'Cease-Fire'". HuffPost.com. HuffPost. Retrieved January 23, 2024.
12. "2024 Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results". NH SOS. Retrieved February 2, 2024.
13. "2024 Republican Presidential Primary Election Results – Summary by Counties". New Hampshire Secretary of State . Retrieved March 8, 2024.
14. "2024 Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by Write-ins – Summary by Counties". New Hampshire Secretary of State . Retrieved March 8, 2024.
15. "2024 New Hampshire presidential primary results". AP.
16. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
17. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
18. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
19. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
20. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
21. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.