2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

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2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
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  Maggie Hassan, official portrait, 115th Congress (cropped).jpg Kelly Ayotte, Official Portrait, 112th Congress 1.jpg
Nominee Maggie Hassan Kelly Ayotte
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote354,649353,632
Percentage47.98%47.84%
2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by county.svg
2016 United States senate election in New Hampshire by congressional district.svg
2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by municipality.svg
NH Senate 2016.svg
Hassan:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
Ayotte:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Tie:     50–60%No votes:     
U.S. senator before election

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary election to select the candidates who appeared on the general election ballot took place on September 13, 2016. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte ran for re-election to a second term in office and won the primary by a wide margin. [2] Governor Maggie Hassan chose not to seek reelection to a third term as governor and instead sought the nomination of the Democratic Party for the Senate. Hassan was unopposed in the Democratic primary and won the general election by 1,017 votes, representing a winning margin of approximately 0.14%. [3] This made the election the closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, and also the closest race in a New Hampshire Senate election since the disputed 1974–75 election. Hassan became the first Democratic senator elected in this seat since the latter election and only the second since 1932.

The Democratic Party also flipped New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in the concurrent House election, thus marking the first time since 1854 that New Hampshire had an entirely Democratic congressional delegation. As of 2023, this remains the last time that a Democratic candidate for Senate in New Hampshire has failed to win a majority of the vote or lost any county other than Belknap and Coös. This was the first time since 1932 that a Democrat won a full term to this Senate seat.

Republican primary

Ayotte was predicted to face opposition in the primary from a Tea Party candidate. In October 2013, former New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chairman Jack Kimball said: "There is no question in my mind that she will garner a primary challenger". [4] Ultimately, she faced only token opposition.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kelly
Ayotte		Ovide
Lamontagne		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [11] April 9–13, 2015358± ?57%32%—12%

Results

Republican primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) 86,676 78.56%
Republican Jim Rubens19,15617.36%
Republican Tom Alciere1,5861.44%
Republican Gerald Beloin1,2551.14%
Republican Stanley Emanuel1,1871.08%
Democratic Maggie Hassan (write-in)3010.27%
Write-in 1670.15%
Total votes110,328 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Results

Democratic primary results [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Maggie Hassan 70,374 98.16%
Republican Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) (write-in)7751.08%
Write-in 5470.76%
Total votes71,696 100.0%

Libertarian convention

On Saturday, January 16, 2016, the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire selected Brian Chabot to be their nominee for the U.S. Senate. [24] [25]

General election

Candidates

Debates

DatesLocationAyotteHassanLink
September 30, 2016 North Conway, New Hampshire ParticipantParticipant [27]
October 14, 2016 Manchester, New Hampshire ParticipantParticipant [28]
October 27, 2016 Concord, New Hampshire ParticipantParticipant [29]
November 2, 2016 Manchester, New Hampshire ParticipantParticipant [30]

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte

Presidents

Governors (current and former)

U.S. Senators

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Maggie Hassan

Presidents

Vice Presidents

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

Governors

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Labor Unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [97] TossupNovember 2, 2016
Inside Elections [98] TossupNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [99] Lean D (flip)November 7, 2016
Daily Kos [100] Lean D (flip)November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [101] TossupNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kelly
Ayotte (R)		Maggie
Hassan (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [102] November 1–7, 2016696± 4.6%42%51%6%1%
WMUR/UNH [103] November 3–6, 2016707± 3.7%45%49%1%4%
SurveyMonkey [104] October 31 – November 6, 2016672± 4.6%41%50%7%2%
Emerson College [105] November 4–5, 20161,000± 3.0%49%46%5%1%
WMUR/UNH [106] November 2–5, 2016645± 3.7%45%47%2%6%
WMUR/UNH [106] November 1–4, 2016588± 3.7%44%48%2%6%
WMUR/UNH [106] October 31 – November 3, 2016515± 3.7%42%48%3%7%
SurveyMonkey [107] October 28 – November 3, 2016672± 4.6%38%50%9%3%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [108] November 1–2, 20161,001± 2.0%46%44%—10%
Suffolk University [109] October 31 – November 2, 2016500± 4.4%44%42%5%8%
American Research Group [110] October 31 – November 2, 2016600± 4.0%49%46%2%3%
WMUR/UNH [106] October 30 – November 2, 2016466± 3.7%41%48%3%8%
UMass Lowell/7News [111] October 28 – November 2, 2016695 LV± 4.3%46%47%5%3%
901 RV± 3.8%43%46%5%6%
SurveyMonkey [112] October 27 – November 2, 2016658± 4.6%37%50%10%3%
Public Policy Polling [113] October 31 – November 1, 2016781± 3.5%45%48%—7%
WMUR/UNH [106] October 29 – November 1, 2016468± 3.7%43%47%2%8%
WBUR/MassINC [114] October 29 – November 1, 2016500± 4.4%51%45%1%3%
48%43%—6%
SurveyMonkey [115] October 26 – November 1, 2016635± 4.6%38%50%9%3%
WMUR/UNH [106] October 28–31, 2016513± 3.7%44%46%2%8%
SurveyMonkey [116] October 25–31, 2016659± 4.6%38%50%8%4%
WMUR/UNH [106] October 27–30, 2016463± 3.7%45%45%2%8%
WMUR/UNH [117] October 26–30, 2016641± 3.9%44%46%3%8%
WMUR/UNH [106] October 26–29, 2016516± 3.7%44%45%3%8%
InsideSources/NH Journal [118] October 26–28, 2016408± 4.2%49%47%—4%
Emerson College [119] October 23–25, 2016600± 3.9%50%44%6%1%
Monmouth University [120] October 22–25, 2016401± 4.9%46%46%6%2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [121] October 20–24, 2016768 LV± 3.5%48%47%2%2%
1,020 RV± 3.1%48%47%2%3%
UMass Amherst/WBZ [122] October 17–21, 2016772± 4.5%48%44%4%4%
46%43%4%8%
Emerson College [123] October 17–19, 2016900± 3.2%45%45%10%1%
WMUR/UNH [124] October 11–17, 2016770± 3.5%39%48%4%9%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey [125] October 8–16, 2016569± 0.5%42%47%10%1%
WBUR/MassINC [126] October 10–12, 2016501± 4.4%47%47%2%5%
46%45%2%6%
7News/UMass Lowell [127] October 7–11, 2016517± 4.9%45%44%4%5%
Public Policy Polling [128] October 7–9, 2016600± 4.0%43%44%—13%
Suffolk University [129] October 3–5, 2016500± 4.4%47%41%4%6%
WBUR/MassINC [130] September 27–29, 2016502± 4.4%45%48%3%4%
46%48%3%3%
GBA Strategies [131] September 25–27, 2016600± 4.0%44%47%7%2%
47%49%—4%
American Research Group [132] September 20–25, 2016522± 4.2%47%47%—6%
Monmouth University [133] September 17–20, 2016400± 4.9%47%45%2%5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [134] September 6–8, 2016737± 3.6%52%44%—4%
Emerson College [135] September 3–5, 2016600± 3.9%48%46%—6%
Public Policy Polling [136] August 30–31, 2016585± 4.1%44%47%—9%
Public Policy Polling [137] August 26–28, 2016977± 3.0%45%47%—8%
WMUR/UNH [138] August 20–28, 2016433± 4.7%42%44%3%12%
CBS News/YouGov [139] August 10–12, 2016990± 4.3%41%42%—17%
Vox Populi Polling (R) [140] August 7–8, 2016820± 3.4%43%46%—11%
Public Policy Polling [141] August 5–7, 2016802± 3.5%42%47%—11%
WBUR/MassINC [142] July 29 – August 1, 2016609± 4.0%40%50%2%7%
37%48%2%11%
GBA Strategies [131] July 25–27, 2016600± 4.0%47%47%2%4%
InsideSources/NH Journal [143] July 19–21, 20161,166± 5.1%49%41%—10%
WMUR/UNH [144] July 9–18, 2016469± 4.5%42%45%3%11%
American Research Group [145] June 24–28, 2016533± 4.2%51%42%—7%
Public Policy Polling [146] June 22–23, 2016578± 4.1%42%44%—15%
Global Strategy Group [147] June 15–16, 2016400± 4.9%45%49%—6%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps [148] June 11–20, 2016300± 5.7%46%47%—7%
Public Policy Polling [149] June 8–9, 2016649± 3.9%44%47%—8%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University [150] May 25–28, 2016405± 4.9%48%47%—5%
Global Strategy Group [151] May 25–26, 2016400± 4.9%43%45%—12%
WBUR/MassINC [152] May 12–15, 2016501± 4.4%46%48%2%4%
Dartmouth College [153] April 11–16, 2016362± 5.2%37%35%—28%
WMUR/UNH [154] April 7–17, 2016553± 4.2%43%42%—15%
WMUR/UNH [155] February 20–28, 2016628± 3.7%45%41%4%10%
Marist Poll [156] January 28, 20162,258± 2.1%45%40%—15%
Public Policy Polling [157] January 4–6, 20161,036± 3.0%44%42%—14%
Public Policy Polling [158] November 30 – December 2, 2015990± 3.1%42%42%—16%
Public Policy Polling [159] October 16–18, 2015880± 3.3%43%44%—13%
Gravis Marketing [160] October 5–6, 20151,035± 3.1%52%42%—6%
WMUR/UNH [161] September 21 – October 2, 2015519± 4.3%45%43%1%11%
Public Policy Polling [162] August 21–24, 2015841± 3.4%44%43%—13%
NBC News/Marist Poll [163] July, 2015910± 3.2%50%42%—8%
WMUR/UNH [164] July 7–20, 2015472± 4.5%47%41%1%12%
The Tarrance Group [165] July 5–6, 2015600± 4.0%51%44%—5%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates [166] June 25–28, 2015500± 3.0%52%41%—7%
WMUR/UNH [167] May 6–22, 2015524± 4.3%45%43%2%9%
Gravis Marketing [168] April 21–22, 20151,117± 3.0%51%43%—6%
Public Policy Polling [11] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%45%46%—9%
Gravis Marketing [169] March 18–19, 20151,110± 5.0%47%45%—8%
Public Opinion Strategies [170] February 17–18, 2015424± 4.7%46%45%—9%
NBC News/Marist [171] February 3–10, 2015887± 3.3%44%48%—7%
New England College [172] December 1, 2014541± 4.2%48%43%4%5%
Public Policy Polling [173] January 9–12, 20141,354± 2.7%46%40%—14%
Public Policy Polling [174] September 13–16, 20131,038± 3.0%45%44%—11%
Public Policy Polling [175] April 19–21, 2013933± 3.2%44%46%—10%
Hypothetical polling

with Kelly Ayotte

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kelly
Ayotte (R)		Ann McLane
Kuster (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [11] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%49%38%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kelly
Ayotte (R)		Chris
Pappas (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [162] August 21–24, 2015841± 3.4%45%31%24%

with Jim Rubens

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jim
Rubens (R)		Maggie
Hassan (D)		OtherUndecided
WMUR/UNH [138] August 20–28, 2016433± 4.7%27%51%8%14%
WMUR/UNH [144] July 9–18, 2016469± 4.2%30%48%6%16%
WMUR/UNH [154] April 7–17, 2016553± 4.2%30%46%—24%

with Ovide Lamontagne

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ovide
Lamontagne (R)		Maggie
Hassan (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [11] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%35%54%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ovide
Lamontagne (R)		Ann McLane
Kuster (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [11] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%39%43%18%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Maggie Hassan (D)$18,698,223.00$18,564,772.00$133,450.00$0
Kelly Ayotte (R)$16,409,753.89$16,197,583.64$134,182.99$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [176]

Results

State senate district results 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results by state senate district.svg
State senate district results
United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016 [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Maggie Hassan 354,649 47.98% +11.13%
Republican Kelly Ayotte (incumbent)353,63247.84%−12.25%
Independent Aaron Day17,7422.40%N/A
Libertarian Brian Chabot12,5971.70%+0.66%
Write-in 5200.07%N/A
Total votes739,140 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Hassan won 1 of the 2 congressional districts, and Ayotte won the other that also elected a Democrat.

DistrictAyotteHassanRepresentative
1st 49%47% Carol Shea-Porter
2nd 47%49% Annie Kuster

Allegations of voting irregularities

In February 2017, President Donald Trump (who had endorsed Ayotte) told a gathering of senators at the White House that fraudulent out-of-state voting had cost him and Ayotte the election in New Hampshire. [177] On September 7, state House speaker Shawn Jasper (who also had endorsed Ayotte) alleged that voter fraud swung the election. He made the allegations based on a report by the New Hampshire House of Representatives saying that of the 6,540 voters who had registered to vote on election day, only 1,014 of those voters had obtained a New Hampshire driver's license by August 30 of the following year. The Washington Post was able to quickly contact three such voters who said that they were college students and kept the driver's license from their home state. [178]

Several investigations by New Hampshire's Ballot Law Commission found no evidence of widespread fraud, and only four instances of fraud total in the state for the 2016 elections. [179] Specifically addressing the claim of people being bussed in from out of state to vote, Associate Attorney General Anne Edwards noted that they found no evidence for such claims. When they investigated these claims, they found that the buses were chartered out of state, but the voters on the buses lived in New Hampshire and could legally vote there. [179]

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "2016 Election Information". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  2. 1 2 John DiStaso (November 7, 2014). "Ayotte, hoping Senate finally 'gets things done,' says she'll seek reelection". NH Journal. Retrieved December 4, 2014.
  3. 1 2 "United States Senate - 2016 General Election" (PDF). New Hampshire Secretary of State Elections Division. November 8, 2016. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
  4. 1 2 3 Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "For N.H. Republicans, Pain Is Probably Temporary". Roll Call. Retrieved October 30, 2013.
  5. ↑ "Jim Rubens to challenge incumbent Sen. Ayotte in GOP primary". New Hampshire Union Leader . March 5, 2016. Archived from the original on March 6, 2016. Retrieved March 7, 2016.
  6. 1 2 3 DiStaso, John (November 2, 2015). "Updated: O'Brien calls secret meeting to discuss primary challenge to Ayotte". WMUR . Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  7. ↑ Pindell, James (March 13, 2015). "In N.H., a critical US Senate race is already taking shape". The Boston Globe . Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  8. ↑ DiStaso, John (November 2, 2015). "Lamontagne: Ayotte 'most conservative US Senate candidate who can win'". WMUR . Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  9. ↑ Schinella, Tony (April 26, 2015). "Will O'Brien Primary Ayotte in 2016?". Concord Patch. Retrieved May 29, 2015.
  10. ↑ Cline, Drew (July 22, 2015). "Former Speaker Bill O'Brien says a decade in the NH House is enough". New Hampshire Union Leader . Retrieved July 23, 2015.
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 Public Policy Polling
  12. ↑ "2016 United States Senator - Republican Primary" (PDF). New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  13. ↑ Cahn, Emily (October 5, 2015). "Maggie Hassan Will Run for Senate in New Hampshire (Video)". Roll Call . Archived from the original on October 6, 2015. Retrieved October 5, 2015.
  14. ↑ Morris, Allie (October 31, 2015). "Mark Connolly, New Castle resident, announces intent to run for governor". Concord Monitor . Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  15. ↑ Kyle Trygstad (December 17, 2014). "N.H. Democrats Prep Kelly Ayotte Challenge". Roll Call. Archived from the original on December 17, 2014. Retrieved December 18, 2014.
  16. ↑ Landrigan, Kevin; Steinhauser, Paul (July 15, 2015). "Kuster going for third term in US House, not a US Senate bid". NH1 News . Archived from the original on July 17, 2015. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  17. ↑ "Ayotte-Lynch race? No dice". The Telegraph. December 20, 2012. Retrieved December 4, 2014.
  18. ↑ James Pindell (November 25, 2014). "Bedford Democrat quietly preparing to run for U.S. Senate against Ayotte". WMUR. Retrieved December 1, 2014.
  19. ↑ DiStaso, John (February 10, 2015). "Democratic political newcomer O'Connor files candidacy for 1st District U.S. House seat". NH Journal. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  20. ↑ Paul Steinhauser (December 11, 2014). "Paul Steinhauser: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter talks 2016, achievements in Congress". NH1. Archived from the original on December 15, 2014. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
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  22. ↑ McElveen, Josh (October 8, 2015). "Democrat Colin Van Ostern running for governor". WMUR . Retrieved October 8, 2015.
  23. ↑ "2016 State of New Hampshire - Primary Election - United States Senator - Democratic" (PDF). New Hampshire Secretary of State.
  24. ↑ "LPNH 2016 State Convention recap". Libertarian Party of New Hampshire. Archived from the original on September 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
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  26. ↑ Terkel, Amanda (April 5, 2016). "Conservative Activist Holds Off Running As A Third-Party Candidate Against Kelly Ayotte". Huffington Post .
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  31. ↑ Tokars, Mike (June 20, 2016). "GOP Calls In The Big Gun: George W. Bush is on the campaign trail". The National Memo . Retrieved June 21, 2016.
  32. ↑ Abramson, Alana (August 4, 2016). "Mike Pence endorses John McCain and Kelly Ayotte". ABC News . Retrieved August 4, 2016.
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  37. ↑ Okun, Eli (September 9, 2016). "On the trail, it's all Hassan and no Trump for Ayotte". New Hampshire Union Leader . Retrieved September 10, 2016.
  38. ↑ Fischer, Deb (November 3, 2016). "Excited for a full day of campaigning in #NH w good friends @joniernst & @SenCapito. We need @KellyAyotte back in the US Senate #girlpower". Twitter . Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  39. ↑ Troyan, Mary (September 12, 2016). "Lindsey Graham Super PAC runs second ad for Kelly Ayotte in N.H. Senate race". USA Today . Retrieved September 12, 2016.
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  44. ↑ Lips, Evan (March 17, 2016). "Ayotte picks up key endorsement from former GOP foe". New Boston Post. Retrieved April 7, 2016.
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  51. ↑ "Editorial: Vote Ayotte". The Caledonian-Record . October 29, 2016. Retrieved October 29, 2016.
  52. ↑ "AYOTTE, YOUR MOST IMPORTANT VOTE". The Conway Daily Sun . October 31, 2016.
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  57. ↑ "Obama plans 150 down-ballot endorsements". Cable News Network . October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 25, 2016.
  58. ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (May 6, 2016). "Steinhauser: Vice President Biden jumps into Ayotte-Hassan battle". NH1 News . Archived from the original on September 17, 2016. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
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  61. ↑ "NV, NH, NC & PA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D. CA) helps these women take back the U.S. Senate". Daily Kos . October 29, 2016. Retrieved November 1, 2016.
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  63. ↑ Kirsten Gillibrand (December 31, 2015). "Proud to support @TammyforIL @DonnaFEdwards @KamalaHarris @Maggie_Hassan @Ann_Kirkpatrick @CatherineForNV & @KatieMcGintyPA for Senate". Twitter. Retrieved January 13, 2016.
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  65. ↑ "NH-Sen: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D. HI) helps Maggie Hassan (D) get ready to defeat Kelly Ayotte (R)". Daily Kos . October 14, 2015. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
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  67. ↑ Bowman, Bridget (July 19, 2016). "Murphy announces support for first gun control candidates". Roll Call . Retrieved August 14, 2016.
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  69. ↑ Hagen, Lisa (August 29, 2016). "Sanders endorses Dem candidates in critical senate races". The Hill . Retrieved August 29, 2016.
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