2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska

Last updated

2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska
Flag of Nebraska.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  
Turnout63.80% Increase2.svg [1]
  Portrait of President-elect Donald Trump (cropped).jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote50
Popular vote495,961284,494
Percentage58.75%33.70%

Nebraska Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska - Results by congressional district.svg
2016 Presidential election in Nebraska by precinct.svg

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color Nebraska 2016 presidential results by county.png
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county United States presidential election in Nebraska, 2016.svg
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Nebraska has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, two from the state at large, and one each from the three congressional districts. [2]

Contents

Trump carried the state with 58.7% of the vote, while Clinton received 33.7%. [3] This is also the most recent presidential election when Nebraska's 2nd congressional district would vote Republican, and thus, Nebraska's 2nd district was the only electoral vote that voted for Trump in 2016 that did not vote for him in 2024.

Caucuses and primaries

Democratic caucus

The 2016 Nebraska Democratic caucuses was held on March 15, 2016, as part of a series of primary elections to decide the 2016 Democratic nominee for president. Senator Bernie Sanders won a commanding victory in Nebraska, winning rural areas along with big cities such as Omaha and Lincoln. This was the last Democratic primary in Nebraska held via the caucus method, the state party switched to a standard popular vote to decide the allocation of delegates in future elections including 2020. In 2016, the Nebraska caucuses occurred on the same dates as Kansas and Louisiana, the former being won handily by Sanders, while the latter was won in a landslide by the eventual nominee Hillary Clinton.

Results of the Democratic caucuses by county
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton Nebraska Democratic Presidential Caucuses Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Results of the Democratic caucuses by county
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton

Democratic presidential caucuses

Nebraska Democratic caucuses, March 5, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Bernie Sanders 19,12057.14%15116
Hillary Clinton 14,34042.86%10313
Uncommitted011
Total33,460100%25530
Source: [4]


Democratic presidential primary (non-binding)
The Nebraska Democratic primary was held on May 10, 2016. The primary does not bind delegates. Delegates were bound by the caucuses on March 5, 2016.

Nebraska Democratic primary, May 10, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 42,69253.08%
Bernie Sanders 37,74446.92%
Total80,436100%
Source: [5]

Republican primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot: [6] [7]

Nebraska Republican primary, May 10, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump122,32761.47%36036
Ted Cruz (withdrawn)36,70318.44%000
John Kasich (withdrawn)22,70911.41%000
Ben Carson (withdrawn)10,0165.03%000
Marco Rubio (withdrawn)7,2333.63%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:198,988100.00%36036
Source: The Green Papers

Libertarian primary

2016 Nebraska Libertarian presidential primary
Flag of Nebraska.svg
May 10, 2016 (2016-05-10) 2020  
  Garyjohnsonphoto - modified.jpg Austin Petersen by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Candidate Gary Johnson Austin Petersen
Home state New Mexico Missouri
Popular vote375135
Percentage52.08%18.75%

  John McAfee by Gage Skidmore.jpg Marc Allan Feldman (20277052616) (cropped).jpg
Candidate John McAfee Marc Allan Feldman
Home state Tennessee Ohio
Popular vote12447
Percentage17.22%6.53%

Nebraska Libertarian presidential primary by county, 2016.svg
Nebraska results by county
(Note: Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)

The Nebraska primary was held on May 10, 2016. Independents and registered Libertarians were allowed to vote in the state's Libertarian primary. The Nebraska Primary marked the third large victory for Gary Johnson in the handful of states that conduct Libertarian presidential primaries. However, since the Libertarian Party does not use such primaries for selecting delegates to its national nominating convention, the results were effectively non-binding.

2016 Nebraska Libertarian primary [8]
CandidatePopular vote
CountPercentage
America Symbol.svg Gary Johnson 37552.08%
Austin Petersen13518.75%
John McAfee 12417.22%
Marc Allan Feldman476.53%
Steve Kerbel354.86%
Total:720100%

General election

Polling

Nebraska's 1st Congressional District

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Donald
Trump (R)
Gary
Johnson (L)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College [9] September 25–27, 201623329%53%

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Donald
Trump (R)
Gary
Johnson (L)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College [9] September 25–27, 201623340%49%
The Singularis Group, LLC [10] May 11–12, 20161,007± 3.08%36%44%20%

Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Donald
Trump (R)
Gary
Johnson (L)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College [9] September 25–27, 201623420%65%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times [11] Safe RNovember 6, 2016
CNN [12] Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [13] Likely RNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
NBC [15] Likely RNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics [16] Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Fox News [17] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
ABC [18] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
SourceRanking (1st)Ranking (2nd)Ranking (3rd)As of
CNN [19] Safe RTossupSafe RNovember 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [20] Safe RLean RSafe RNovember 7, 2016
NBC [21] Safe RTossupSafe RNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics [22] Safe RLikely RSafe RNovember 8, 2016

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska [23]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 495,96158.75%5
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 284,49433.70%0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 38,9464.61%0
Write-Ins16,0511.90%0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 8,7751.04%0
Totals844,227100.00%5

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams 9,28768.73%3,30224.44%9246.83%5,98544.29%13,513
Antelope 2,73283.27%38311.67%1665.06%2,34971.60%3,281
Arthur 24489.38%176.23%124.39%22783.15%273
Banner 35788.81%194.73%266.46%33884.08%402
Blaine 27687.07%309.46%113.47%24677.61%317
Boone 2,29979.14%41414.25%1926.61%1,88564.89%2,905
Box Butte 3,61773.46%96519.60%3426.94%2,65253.86%4,924
Boyd 98385.03%12811.07%453.90%85573.96%1,156
Brown 1,38586.73%1539.58%593.69%1,23277.15%1,597
Buffalo 14,56968.95%4,76322.54%1,7978.51%9,80646.41%21,129
Burt 2,36766.53%93026.14%2617.33%1,43740.39%3,558
Butler 3,07977.34%69117.36%2115.30%2,38859.98%3,981
Cass 8,45265.35%3,48426.94%9977.71%4,96838.41%12,933
Cedar 3,53279.91%57112.92%3177.17%2,96166.99%4,420
Chase 1,64886.83%1719.01%794.16%1,47777.82%1,898
Cherry 2,62384.12%31710.17%1785.71%2,30673.95%3,118
Cheyenne 3,66577.80%71115.09%3357.11%2,95462.71%4,711
Clay 2,42279.02%47715.56%1665.42%1,94563.46%3,065
Colfax 2,17167.55%85926.73%1845.72%1,31240.82%3,214
Cuming 3,12276.63%71917.65%2335.72%2,40358.98%4,074
Custer 4,69583.07%64111.34%3165.59%4,05471.73%5,652
Dakota 3,61657.59%2,31436.85%3495.56%1,30220.74%6,279
Dawes 2,63271.60%80121.79%2436.61%1,83149.81%3,676
Dawson 5,98469.30%2,13624.74%5155.96%3,84844.56%8,635
Deuel 80982.22%12012.20%555.58%68970.02%984
Dixon 2,04173.36%55619.99%1856.65%1,48553.37%2,782
Dodge 9,93363.96%4,54429.26%1,0526.78%5,38934.70%15,529
Douglas 108,07744.95%113,79847.33%18,5587.72%-5,721-2.38%240,433
Dundy 82386.36%899.34%414.30%73477.02%953
Fillmore 2,13072.42%61320.84%1986.74%1,51751.58%2,941
Franklin 1,34780.51%25014.94%764.55%1,09765.57%1,673
Frontier 1,11083.58%16112.12%574.30%94971.46%1,328
Furnas 1,92182.09%30412.99%1154.92%1,61769.10%2,340
Gage 6,38063.50%2,93529.21%7337.29%3,44534.29%10,048
Garden 86980.84%15314.23%534.93%71666.61%1,075
Garfield 82183.78%12112.35%383.87%70071.43%980
Gosper 79478.61%16616.44%504.95%62862.17%1,010
Grant 36790.62%204.94%184.44%34785.68%405
Greeley 91277.62%21017.87%534.51%70259.75%1,175
Hall 14,40865.31%6,28228.48%1,3706.21%8,12636.83%22,060
Hamilton 3,78375.60%87817.55%3436.85%2,90558.05%5,004
Harlan 1,49681.66%25413.86%824.48%1,24267.80%1,832
Hayes 47291.83%305.84%122.33%44285.99%514
Hitchcock 1,23283.92%16110.97%755.11%1,07172.95%1,468
Holt 4,35485.07%53110.38%2334.55%3,82374.69%5,118
Hooker 35585.13%409.59%225.28%31575.54%417
Howard 2,28476.29%54418.17%1665.54%1,74058.12%2,994
Jefferson 2,39968.66%83723.96%2587.38%1,56244.70%3,494
Johnson 1,35564.86%56326.95%1718.19%79237.91%2,089
Kearney 2,53176.79%55016.69%2156.52%1,98160.10%3,296
Keith 3,23580.19%57114.15%2285.66%2,66466.04%4,034
Keya Paha 46088.63%407.71%193.66%42080.92%519
Kimball 1,33079.31%23013.71%1176.98%1,10065.60%1,677
Knox 3,18877.47%72017.50%2075.03%2,46859.97%4,115
Lancaster 61,58845.21%61,89845.44%12,7379.35%-310-0.23%136,223
Lincoln 12,16475.41%2,91318.06%1,0546.53%9,25157.35%16,131
Logan 40088.30%327.06%214.64%36881.24%453
Loup 32383.90%4812.47%143.63%27571.43%385
Madison 10,62874.10%2,71118.90%1,0047.00%7,91755.20%14,343
McPherson 25789.55%144.88%165.57%24384.67%287
Merrick 2,92677.24%60215.89%2606.87%2,32461.35%3,788
Morrill 1,80281.58%28412.86%1235.56%1,51868.72%2,209
Nance 1,26177.79%28117.33%794.88%98060.46%1,621
Nemaha 2,11666.94%78524.83%2608.23%1,33142.11%3,161
Nuckolls 1,72678.28%35316.01%1265.71%1,37362.27%2,205
Otoe 4,86065.17%2,02527.16%5727.67%2,83538.01%7,457
Pawnee 97473.40%27921.02%745.58%69552.38%1,327
Perkins 1,21783.64%16111.07%775.29%1,05672.57%1,455
Phelps 3,84981.98%57212.18%2745.84%3,27769.80%4,695
Pierce 3,05284.08%38210.52%1965.40%2,67073.56%3,630
Platte 10,96575.97%2,64618.33%8225.70%8,31957.64%14,433
Polk 2,02878.54%41316.00%1415.46%1,61562.54%2,582
Red Willow 4,25882.28%64512.46%2725.26%3,61369.82%5,175
Richardson 2,76972.77%81821.50%2185.73%1,95151.27%3,805
Rock 68786.09%708.77%415.14%61777.32%798
Saline 3,00458.49%1,73333.74%3997.77%1,27124.75%5,136
Sarpy 45,14356.02%28,03334.79%7,4049.19%17,11021.23%80,580
Saunders 7,55569.57%2,52323.23%7827.20%5,03246.34%10,860
Scotts Bluff 10,07670.38%3,20722.40%1,0347.22%6,86947.98%14,317
Seward 5,45468.85%1,87523.67%5937.48%3,57945.18%7,922
Sheridan 2,21184.78%28711.00%1104.22%1,92473.78%2,608
Sherman 1,15073.11%34021.61%835.28%81051.50%1,573
Sioux 61683.70%8111.01%395.29%53572.69%736
Stanton 2,18778.08%41714.89%1977.03%1,77063.19%2,801
Thayer 2,05176.25%49918.55%1405.20%1,55257.70%2,690
Thomas 34487.53%307.63%194.84%31479.90%393
Thurston 1,04349.95%91944.01%1266.04%1245.94%2,088
Valley 1,78080.73%33915.37%863.90%1,44165.36%2,205
Washington 7,42468.54%2,62324.22%7857.24%4,80144.32%10,832
Wayne 2,69371.32%83522.11%2486.57%1,85849.21%3,776
Webster 1,33077.87%30617.92%724.21%1,02459.95%1,708
Wheeler 37781.08%6213.33%265.59%31567.75%465
York 4,70073.66%1,18618.59%4957.75%3,51455.07%6,381
Totals495,96158.75%284,49433.70%63,7777.55%211,46725.05%844,232
Nebraska County Swing 2016.svg
Nebraska County Trend 2016.svg
Nebraska County Flips 2016.svg
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won all of the state's three congressional districts, winning all of the state's electoral votes. [23]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
1st 56%35% Jeff Fortenberry
2nd 47%45% Brad Ashford
Don Bacon
3rd 74%20% Adrian Smith

Analysis

A map of the most college-educated counties in the United States Most college-educated counties in the United States.jpg
A map of the most college-educated counties in the United States

Although Trump won Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district in 2016, the district shifted significantly leftward, and Clinton lost it by just 2%. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Douglas or Lancaster County since William Howard Taft in 1908.

This was because Douglas and Lancaster counties, which are in the district, are two of the most highly-educated counties in Nebraska. Trump underperformed among white voters with college degrees in 2016. In 2020 and 2024 Democrats won a majority of white voters with college degrees, and were thus able to win the district in those elections. [24]

See also

References

  1. "Voter turnout in United States elections".
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
  3. "Nebraska Election Results 2016". The New York Times. August 9, 2017.
  4. The Green Papers
  5. Nebraska Secretary of State Election - Official Primary Results
  6. WRAL: NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballots
  7. NC State Board of Elections presidential primary candidates' list (preliminary) [ dead link ]
  8. "Unofficial Results: Primary Election - May 10, 2016". Nebraska Secretary of State. May 10, 2016. Retrieved July 22, 2016.
  9. 1 2 3 "Emerson Poll: Washington State Looks Safe for Democrats in the Presidential and Senate Races; Trump Has a Wide Lead in Nebraska" (PDF). Emerson College. Retrieved September 28, 2016.
  10. "BACON LEADS ASHFORD IN LATEST POLL". The Singularis Group, LLC. Don Bacon for Congress. May 16, 2016. Archived from the original on September 10, 2016. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
  11. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times . November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  12. "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  13. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  14. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  15. Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News . Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  16. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  17. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  18. "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  19. "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  20. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  21. Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News . Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  22. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  23. 1 2 "Revised Official Report of the Board of State Canvassers" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
  24. Silver, Nate (November 22, 2016). "Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump". FiveThirtyEight.