2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas

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2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Flag of Arkansas.svg
←  2010 November 8, 2016 2022  →
Turnout64.65%
  John Boozman, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Connereldridge-150.jpg
Nominee John Boozman Conner Eldridge
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote661,984400,602
Percentage59.77%36.17%
2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas results map by county.svg
2016 Senate Election in Arkansas By Congressional District.svg
2016 U.S. Senate Elections--Arkansas Townships.svg
AR Senate 2016.svg
Boozman:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Eldridge:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

John Boozman
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent senator John Boozman won re-election to a second term in office, becoming the first Republican senator reelected in the history of the state. Former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge was the only Democrat to declare his candidacy. The primaries were held March 1. [1] This is also the first election that the state has simultaneously voted for a Republican Senate candidate and a Republican presidential candidate.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Boozman		Curtis
Coleman		Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College [3] February 4, 2016457± 4.6%68%23%9%

Results

Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Boozman (incumbent) 298,039 76.45%
Republican Curtis Coleman91,79523.55%
Total votes389,834 100.00%

Democratic primary

Conner Eldridge was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Eldridge campaigning Conner Eldridge, Springdale Rally 002.jpg
Eldridge campaigning

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Conner Eldridge 214,228 100.00%
Total votes214,228 100.00%

Third parties

The Libertarian Party of Arkansas held a special nominating convention on October 24, 2015, to select nominees for elections in 2016. Frank Gilbert was selected as the nominee for the U.S. Senate race. [6]

Candidates

Nominated

  • Frank Gilbert, DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014 [6]

General election

Candidates

Debates

DatesLocationBoozmanEldridgeGilbertLink
October 12, 2016 Little Rock, Arkansas ParticipantParticipantParticipant [7] - C-SPAN

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [8] Safe RNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [10] Safe RNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [11] Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [12] Safe RNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Boozman (R)		Conner
Eldridge (D)		Frank
Gilbert (L)		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [13] November 1–7, 2016930± 4.6%56%41%——3%
SurveyMonkey [14] October 31 – November 6, 2016798± 4.6%55%42%——3%
SurveyMonkey [15] October 28 – November 3, 2016696± 4.6%56%43%——1%
SurveyMonkey [16] October 27 – November 2, 2016593± 4.6%54%43%——3%
SurveyMonkey [17] October 26 – November 1, 2016475± 4.6%52%46%——2%
SurveyMonkey [18] October 25–31, 2016484± 4.6%54%44%——2%
University of Arkansas [19] October 18–25, 2016800± 3.5%61%38%—1%—
Talk Business/Hendrix College [20] October 21, 2016463± 4.6%52%34%4%2%8%
Talk Business/Hendrix College [21] September 15–17, 2016831± 3.4%55%29%5%3%8%
Emerson College [22] September 9–13, 2016600± 3.6%44%30%—11%15%
Talk Business/Hendrix College [23] June 21, 2016751± 3.6%51%29%6%—14%
Hypothetical polling

with Mike Beebe

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Boozman (R)		Mike
Beebe (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [24] August 1–3, 20141,066± 3%40%46%—14%
Public Policy Polling [25] September 18–21, 20141,453± 2.6%39%49%—12%
Talk Business/Hendrix College [26] June 8–11, 20151,183± 1.84%37%45%—18%

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2016 [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican John Boozman (incumbent) 661,984 59.77% +1.87%
Democratic Conner Eldridge 400,60236.17%−0.78%
Libertarian Frank Gilbert43,8663.96%+0.72%
Write-in 1,0700.10%N/A
Total votes1,107,522 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Boozman won all four congressional districts [28]

DistrictBoozmanEldridgeRepresentative
1st 63%33% Rick Crawford
2nd 51%45% French Hill
3rd 64%31% Steve Womack
4th 62%35% Bruce Westerman

References

  1. ↑ "Conner Eldridge to Challenge Boozman for U.S. Senate Seat | Times Record". Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  2. ↑ DeMillo, Andrew (June 9, 2014). "Boozman, back at work post-surgery, to run in '16". Associated Press. Retrieved June 9, 2014.
  3. ↑ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  4. ↑ "Preferential Primary and Nonpartisan General Election official Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
  5. ↑ Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2015). "Former U.S. Attorney Will Challenge Boozman in Arkansas". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved September 9, 2015.
  6. 1 2 Brawner, Steve (October 25, 2015). "Arkansas Libertarians Nominate 23, Including Full Congressional Slate". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved October 27, 2015.
  7. ↑ Full debate
  8. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  9. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  10. ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  11. ↑ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  12. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  13. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  14. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  15. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  16. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  17. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  18. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  19. ↑ University of Arkansas
  20. ↑ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  21. ↑ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  22. ↑ Emerson College
  23. ↑ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  24. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  25. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  26. ↑ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  27. ↑ "2016 General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election Unofficial County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2016.
  28. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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