2016 United States presidential election in Colorado

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2016 United States presidential election in Colorado
Flag of Colorado.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  
Turnout74.39% Increase2.svg 3.22 pp [1]
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Gary Johnson June 2016.jpg
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Home state New York New York New Mexico
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence Bill Weld
Electoral vote900
Popular vote1,338,8701,202,484144,121
Percentage48.16%43.25%5.18%

Colorado Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
CO-16-pres-districts.svg
CO President 2016.svg

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color Colorado 2016 presidential results by county.png
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county United States presidential election in Colorado, 2016.svg
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Colorado voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Colorado has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College. [2]

Contents

Clinton received 48.2% of the vote, carrying the state's nine electoral votes. Trump received 43.3% of the vote, thus marking a Democratic margin of victory of 4.9%. This was the fourth time since Colorado had achieved statehood that the Republican nominee won the election without carrying Colorado, the first three having been in 1896, 1900, and 1908 (all when the Democratic nominee was William Jennings Bryan of neighboring Nebraska, a populist with unusual popularity in the traditionally Republican West); and the second time Colorado has voted Democratic in three consecutive presidential elections, the first having been the elections of 1908, 1912, and 1916. Trump became the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying Alamosa or Broomfield Counties, as well as the first to do so without carrying Jefferson, Arapahoe, or Larimer Counties since William McKinley in 1900, and the first to do so without carrying Ouray County since William Howard Taft in 1908.

At the same time, Trump flipped five counties in the state: Conejos, Chaffee, Huerfano, Las Animas, and Pueblo. The last two had not supported a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon's landslide in 1972. Despite Clinton's victory, this is the sole election since Colorado's Democratic winning streak from 2008 forward that the Democratic candidate's percentage in the state was held to only a plurality, while winning the state by a less than (albeit very narrowly in this case) 5% margin. [3]

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Opinion polling

Results

Caucus date
March 1, 2016
e    d   2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Colorado
– Summary of results –
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Bernie Sanders 72,84658.98%41041
Hillary Clinton 49,78940.31%25934
Uncommitted8220.67%033
Others510.04%
Total123,508100%661278
Sources: The Green Papers and Colorado Democrats 2016 Caucus results
Detailed results for the Colorado Democratic caucuses, March 1, 2016 [4]
DistrictTotal estimate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
VotesEstimated
delegates
VotesEstimated
delegates
VotesEstimated
delegates
1st district 29,474816,232413,2424
2nd district 30,624719,376411,2483
3rd district 14,67168,95645,7152
4th district 10,06056,11533,9452
5th district 10,31556,33833,9772
6th district 12,83666,67536,1613
7th district 14,65569,15445,5014
At-large delegates122,6351472,846849,7896
Pledged PLEOs954
Total663828

Results of the county assemblies Timeframe for the county assemblies: March 2–26, 2016

Colorado Democratic county assemblies, March 2–26, 2016
CandidateState + District delegates [5] Estimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Bernie Sanders 37261.39%
Hillary Clinton 23438.61%
Uncommitted
Total606100%
Results of the congressional district conventions
Detailed results for the congressional district conventions, April 1–15, 2016 [4]
DistrictDelegates
available
Delegates won
Sanders Clinton
1st district 853
2nd district 743
3rd district 642
4th district 532
5th district 532
6th district 633
7th district 642
Total432617
Results of the state convention

State convention date: April 16, 2016

Colorado Democratic State Convention, April 16, 2016 [4]
CandidateState convention delegatesNational delegates won
CountPercentageAt-largePLEOTotal
Bernie Sanders 1,90062.3%9615
Hillary Clinton 1,15037.7%538
Total3,050100.0%14923

Republican conventions

From April 2–8, 2016, conventions were held in each of Colorado's seven congressional districts. Cruz swept all seven, winning 21 delegates total. [6] [7] [8] [9] On April 9, 2016, the state convention was held to elect the 13 statewide delegates and the 3 RNC delegates. [10] Again, Cruz won all 13 statewide at-large delegates. [11] Cruz was also the only candidate to address the state convention.

A proposal to forbid Colorado Republican delegates from voting for Donald Trump was written in March 2016 by Robert Zubrin. The group "Colorado Republicans for Liberty" handed out fliers of Zubrin's resolution at the state's convention. Irregularities on the ballot were discovered at the state's convention. Delegate #379 (Jerome Parks, a Trump delegate) was replaced on the ballot with a duplicate of delegate #378 (a Ted Cruz delegate). [12] The Colorado Republican Party's Twitter account posted the message "We did it #NeverTrump" after Cruz received all the bound delegates at the April convention. The party claims somebody hacked its Twitter account, and the party claims to be investigating how the message was posted. [13] [14] In May 2015, the Colorado Senate defeated a bill to hold a 2016 presidential primary. State senators Kevin Grantham, Kent Lambert, Laura J. Woods, and Jerry Sonnenberg voted to stop the bill. [15] Sonnenberg, Woods, Grantham, and Lambert are members of the Ted Cruz "Colorado Leadership Team" for Ted Cruz. [16] Congressman Ken Buck and Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams are also members of the Ted Cruz "Colorado Leadership Team". [16]

The conventions were selected through statewide caucuses, which were conducted at the precinct level on March 1. [10] No voter preference poll was held due to a decision in August by the state party to cancel it. [17]

Three candidates contested the Republican presidential conventions:

Marco Rubio and Ben Carson had dropped out of the race by the time the conventions were held, though they were still running during the March 1 caucuses.

Colorado Republican district conventions, April 2, 2016, April 7–8, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Ted Cruz 00.0%17421
Donald Trump 00.0%000
John Kasich 00.0%000
Marco Rubio (withdrawn)00.0%000
Ben Carson (withdrawn)00.0%000
Uncommitted00.0%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:0100.00%17421
Source: The Green Papers
Colorado Republican state convention, April 9, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Ted Cruz 00.0%13013
Donald Trump 00.0%011
John Kasich 00.0%000
Marco Rubio (withdrawn)00.0%000
Ben Carson (withdrawn)00.0%000
Uncommitted00.0%000
Unprojected delegates:022
Total:0100.00%13316
Source: The Green Papers

Green Party convention

On April 3, the Green Party of Colorado held a presidential nominating convention in Centennial, Colorado, for registered Green voters. [18]

On April 4, the Green Party of Colorado announced that Jill Stein had won the convention and received all 5 delegates. [19]

Colorado Green Party Convention, April 3, 2016.
CandidateVotesPercentageNational delegates
America Symbol.svg Jill Stein --5
William Kreml---
Kent Mesplay ---
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry---
Darryl Cherney ---
Uncommitted---
Total--5

General election

Polling

Throughout the race, Clinton lead in almost every poll in margins varying between 1 and 11 points, with a few polls showing a tie or a Trump lead. One of the last polls showed a tie between Clinton and Trump, but the last poll showed Clinton leading Trump 50% to 45%, which was very accurate compared to the results. [20] The average of the last three polls showed Clinton leading Trump 44% to 41%. [20]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
ABC News [21] Lean DNovember 8, 2016
CNN [22] Lean DNovember 4, 2016
Cook Political Report [23] Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com [24] Lean DNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [25] Likely DNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [26] Likely DNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics [27] TossupNovember 8, 2016

Statewide results

Voter turnout for the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado was 72.4%. [28] [29]

2016 United States presidential election in Colorado [30] [31] [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic 1,338,870 48.16
Republican 1,202,48443.25
Libertarian 144,1215.18
Green 38,4371.38
Independent
28,9171.04
American Constitution
11,6990.42
Veterans of America
  • Chris Keniston
  • Deacon Taylor
5,0280.18
Independent
  • Mike Smith
  • Daniel White
1,8190.07
Independent American
  • Kyle Kopitke
  • Nathan Sorenson
1,0960.04
Independent People
8720.03
American Solidarity
8620.03
Nutrition
7510.03
Independent
  • Ryan Scott
  • Bruce Barnard
7490.03
American
7100.03
Socialism and Liberation 5310.02
Socialist Workers 4520.02
Kotlikoff for President3920.01
Nonviolent Resistance/Pacifist
3820.01
Approval Voting
  • Frank Atwood
  • Blake Huber
3370.01
Socialist 2710.01
Prohibition
1850.01
Republican
110.00
Independent (Republican)
60.00
Independent
40.00
Green (Democratic)
30.00
Independent
20.00
Independent (Libertarian)
10.00
Total votes2,780,247 100%
Democratic win

Results by county

CountyHillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Adams 96,55849.86%80,08241.35%17,0378.79%16,4768.51%193,677
Alamosa 3,18945.96%3,04643.90%70410.14%1432.06%6,939
Arapahoe 159,88552.76%117,05338.63%26,1108.61%42,83214.13%303,048
Archuleta 2,50034.06%4,26458.10%5757.84%-1,764-24.04%7,339
Baca 28313.14%1,75381.42%1175.44%-1,470-68.28%2,153
Bent 59030.62%1,18861.65%1497.73%-598-31.03%1,927
Boulder 132,33470.34%41,39622.00%14,4157.66%90,93848.34%188,145
Broomfield 19,73152.35%14,36738.12%3,5929.53%5,36414.23%37,690
Chaffee 4,88843.45%5,39147.92%9718.63%-503-4.47%11,250
Cheyenne 13211.98%92583.94%454.08%-793-71.96%1,102
Clear Creek 2,72946.52%2,57543.90%5629.58%1542.62%5,866
Conejos 1,77144.03%1,91447.59%3378.38%-143-3.56%4,022
Costilla 1,12560.88%58831.82%1357.30%53729.06%1,848
Crowley 33922.20%1,07970.66%1097.14%-740-48.46%1,527
Custer 79725.99%2,06167.22%2086.79%-1,264-41.23%3,066
Delta 4,08724.34%11,65569.42%1,0486.24%-7,568-45.08%16,790
Denver 244,55173.69%62,69018.89%24,6117.42%181,86154.80%331,852
Dolores 24219.28%94475.22%695.50%-702-55.94%1,255
Douglas 68,65736.62%102,57354.71%16,2708.67%-33,916-18.09%187,500
Eagle 14,09955.90%8,99035.64%2,1348.46%5,10920.26%25,223
El Paso 108,01033.86%179,22856.19%31,7309.95%-71,218-22.33%318,968
Elbert 3,13419.61%11,70573.25%1,1417.14%-8,571-53.64%15,980
Fremont 5,29724.11%15,12268.82%1,5547.07%-9,825-44.71%21,973
Garfield 11,27142.58%13,13249.61%2,0677.81%-1,861-7.03%26,470
Gilpin 1,63445.69%1,56643.79%37610.52%681.90%3,576
Grand 3,35839.10%4,49452.33%7368.57%-1,136-13.23%8,588
Gunnison 5,12854.48%3,28934.94%99510.58%1,83919.54%9,412
Hinsdale 19733.45%33957.56%538.99%-142-24.11%589
Huerfano 1,63343.17%1,88349.78%2677.05%-250-6.61%3,783
Jackson 17119.86%62973.05%617.09%-458-53.19%861
Jefferson 160,77648.89%138,17742.01%29,9309.10%22,5996.88%328,883
Kiowa 9110.64%72885.15%364.21%-637-74.51%855
Kit Carson 53614.48%2,96780.15%1995.37%-2,431-65.67%3,702
La Plata 15,52549.84%12,58740.41%3,0389.75%2,9389.43%31,150
Lake 1,61650.52%1,27039.70%3139.78%34610.82%3,199
Larimer 93,11347.51%83,43042.57%19,4389.92%9,6834.94%195,981
Las Animas 2,65039.01%3,71054.62%4336.37%-1,060-15.61%6,793
Lincoln 40916.79%1,89277.67%1355.54%-1,483-60.88%2,436
Logan 1,85119.04%7,28274.90%5896.06%-5,431-55.86%9,722
Mesa 21,72927.98%49,77964.10%6,1467.92%-28,050-36.12%77,654
Mineral 23736.35%34452.76%7110.89%-107-16.41%652
Moffat 87413.39%5,30581.30%3465.31%-4,431-67.91%6,525
Montezuma 3,97330.90%7,85361.07%1,0328.03%-3,880-30.17%12,858
Montrose 5,46625.80%14,38267.88%1,3386.32%-8,916-42.08%21,186
Morgan 3,15126.35%8,14568.10%6645.55%-4,994-41.75%11,960
Otero 2,94334.82%4,92858.31%5816.87%-1,985-23.49%8,452
Ouray 1,69751.27%1,35140.82%2627.91%34610.45%3,310
Park 3,42132.84%6,13558.89%8618.27%-2,714-26.05%10,417
Phillips 43618.70%1,79176.80%1054.50%-1,355-58.10%2,332
Pitkin 7,33369.69%2,55024.23%6406.08%4,78345.46%10,523
Prowers 1,18623.64%3,53170.39%2995.97%-2,345-46.75%5,016
Pueblo 35,87545.62%36,26546.11%6,5068.27%-390-0.49%78,646
Rio Blanco 43612.64%2,79180.90%2236.46%-2,355-68.26%3,450
Rio Grande 2,00136.16%3,08555.75%4488.09%-1,084-19.59%5,534
Routt 7,60054.34%5,23037.39%1,1568.27%2,37016.95%13,986
Saguache 1,41749.98%1,14740.46%2719.56%2709.52%2,835
San Juan 26552.37%21542.49%265.14%509.88%506
San Miguel 2,97568.72%1,03323.86%3217.42%1,94244.86%4,329
Sedgwick 26719.57%1,01574.41%826.02%-748-54.84%1,364
Summit 9,55759.09%5,10031.53%1,5179.38%4,45727.56%16,174
Teller 3,60324.94%9,74567.47%1,0967.59%-6,142-42.53%14,444
Washington 29610.83%2,29984.12%1385.05%-2,003-73.29%2,733
Weld 46,51934.35%76,65156.60%12,2609.05%-30,132-22.25%135,430
Yuma 72615.15%3,85080.36%2154.49%-3,124-65.21%4,791
Total1,338,87048.16%1,202,48443.25%238,8938.59%136,3864.91%2,780,247
Colorado County Swing 2016.svg
Colorado County Flips 2016.svg

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[33]

By congressional district

Clinton won 4 of 7 congressional districts including one held by a Republican representative. [34]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
1st 23%69% Diana DeGette
2nd 35%56% Jared Polis
3rd 52%40% Scott Tipton
4th 57%34% Ken Buck
5th 57%33% Doug Lamborn
6th 41%50% Mike Coffman
7th 40%52% Ed Perlmutter

Analysis

Historically, Colorado has been, following the Bryan-Wilson period, one of the most Republican states in the nation. From 1920 through 2004, Colorado voted Democratic only five times—in Franklin Roosevelt's two landslide wins in 1932 and 1936; for Harry Truman in 1948; in Lyndon Johnson's landslide win in 1964; and for Bill Clinton in 1992, with Ross Perot running substantially ahead of his national showing in the state. (With the shrinkage of the Perot vote in 1996, Colorado, along with Montana, another Western state where Perot had performed exceptionally well, reverted to Dole.) Before 2016, no Republican had won without Colorado since 1908.

However, increasing urbanization in the Front Range Urban Corridor, along with the growth of minority populations (especially Hispanics) have chipped away from Republican dominance in the state: while President George W. Bush won the state in the 2004 election, it was one of the few states where Republican performance fell (with Bush's margin being nearly halved with respect to 2000), presaging Barack Obama's two Colorado wins in 2008 and 2012. Trump did improve upon previous Republican candidates in Southern Colorado, carrying three of the area's counties (Conejos County, Las Animas County and Huerfano County), a feat not accomplished by any Republican since George H. W. Bush in his decisive 1988 victory. He also carried Pueblo County by a 0.49% margin, becoming the first Republican to carry it since 1972. [35] Southern Colorado, a blue-collar, working-class, industrial area, had once been the state's Democratic stronghold, but Democratic dominance of the region is starting to fade. Trump also did well in the traditionally Republican Western Slope, where counties such as Mesa County (home to Grand Junction) went for Trump by a 2–1 margin and the Eastern Plains, where Republicans often carried counties by 80% or more.

However, as is with the case with Nevada and other states in the American Southwest that have been experiencing increasing urbanization and a rapidly growing Hispanic population, Clinton won by running up the margins in the rapidly growing metro areas of the state, in this case principally Denver and its suburbs, as well as Boulder and Fort Collins. Hillary Clinton exceeded Obama's performance in the City and County of Denver and Boulder County. While these had long been the Democrats' main base in Colorado, Republicans had typically managed at least a quarter of the vote in the former and at least 30% in the latter when Colorado was a Republican state. In contrast, Trump managed only 18.9% and 22.0% in the two jurisdictions, respectively. Hillary Clinton did not improve on Obama's performance in Larimer County (home of Fort Collins), but she did win the county, which had voted Republican in every election from 1920 through 2004 save 1936, 1964, and 1992, and Trump posted the worst showing for a Republican in the county since 1992. Also, while rural western Colorado leans Republican, it is not nearly as strongly conservative as other rural areas, as much of the economy on the I-70 corridor is based on tourism and outdoors recreation and has a liberal environmentalist bent: rural counties with heavily tourist based economies such as Gunnison, Eagle, Routt, Pitkin and La Plata are not only some of the most Democratic rural areas in America, but often vote nearly as Democratic as large urban counties.

Similarly, even though Hillary Clinton did not improve on Obama's showing in the suburban Denver-area counties of Arapahoe and Jefferson, she nevertheless carried both, both of which had been Republican strongholds up through 2004. Trump posted some of the worst results Republicans have had in decades in this region. Trump only won 39% of the vote in Arapahoe County, which includes some of the largest Denver suburbs such as Aurora and Centennial; before Obama won this county in 2008, this county had not gone Democratic since 1964. Trump won only one county in the metro area (Douglas County—home to suburbs such as Parker, Highlands Ranch and Castle Rock), but with only 54% of the vote—one of the poorest performances in the area's most Republican county in decades. Only in Adams County, the one county in the area outside the city of Denver itself that had been a Democratic stronghold prior to 2008, did Trump manage to improve upon Romney, but even here he was barely above 40% of the vote.

Meanwhile, while Trump did win the one remaining large Republican stronghold in the state, El Paso County (home of Colorado Springs), he won with only 56% of the vote, performing worse in the county than McCain in 2008 or Dole in 1996. The confluence of Hillary Clinton's strength in Denver, Boulder, and the Denver suburbs, and Trump's weakness in El Paso County, ultimately handed the state to Clinton.

In downballot races, Mike Coffman was ultimately able to hold on to his seat in a Clinton-carried district around Arapahoe County. Democrats made big gains in this area in the State House and Senate. However, Republicans were able to gain a seat in Adams County, ultimately holding on to the State Senate.

See also

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The 2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States elections in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States presidential election in Oregon</span> Election in Oregon

The 2016 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota</span> Election in North Dakota

The 2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States presidential election in Maine</span> Election in Maine

The 2016 United States presidential election in Maine was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College. Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The last time it did so was in 1828.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 New York Republican presidential primary</span>

The 2016 New York Republican presidential primary was held on April 19 in the U.S. state of New York as one of the Republican Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in Colorado</span> Election in Colorado

The 2020 United States presidential election in Colorado was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Colorado voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump from Florida, and his running mate Vice President Mike Pence from Indiana, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris from California. Colorado had nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.

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