2016 United States Senate election in Colorado

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2016 United States Senate election in Colorado
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  Michael Bennet Official Photo (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Michael Bennet Darryl Glenn
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,370,7101,215,318
Percentage49.97%44.31%
2016 United States Senate election in Colorado results map by county.svg
2016 United States Senate election in Colorado by Congressional District.svg
2016 United States Senate election in Colorado by State House District.svg
2016 United States Senate election in Colorado results map by precinct.svg
Bennet:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Glenn:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Michael Bennet
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Michael Bennet
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Colorado was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Major party candidates can qualify for the ballot through party assemblies or by petition. [1] To qualify by assembly, a candidate must receive at least 30 percent of the vote from the party's state assembly. [1] To qualify by petition, the candidate must file at least 1,500 signatures from each congressional district by April 4, 2016. [1]

Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet won re-election to a second full term in office. Bennet's main challenger was Republican nominee Darryl Glenn, an El Paso County commissioner. Glenn won a crowded, five-way Republican primary in June. Three other candidates were on the ballot: former Eagle County Commissioner Arn Menconi was the Green Party nominee; Lily Tang Williams was the Libertarian Party nominee; and Unity Party of America chairman Bill Hammons was the Unity Party nominee. [2] [3]

Background

Democratic U.S. Senator Ken Salazar resigned in January 2009 to become United States Secretary of the Interior and Governor Bill Ritter appointed Bennet, the Superintendent of Denver Public Schools, to replace him. Bennet was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Republican Ken Buck by 48.1% to 46.4%.

Democratic primary

Incumbent senator Michael Bennet was unopposed for renomination.

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Michael Bennet (incumbent) 262,344 100.0%
Total votes262,344 100.0%

Republican primary

The Colorado Republican Party State Assembly was held April 9, 2016. [6] Darryl Glenn won the convention with 70% of the vote. [7] Robert Blaha, Jack Graham, Jon Keyser, and Ryan Frazier sought to qualify for the ballot by petition instead of through the State Assembly. [8]

Glenn won the June primary with about 37.5% of the vote in the crowded, five-candidate Republican primary field. [9]

Candidate controversies

In early May, the Denver ABC affiliate uncovered over 10 forged voter signatures on the petition which placed Republican candidate Jon Keyser on the June Republican primary ballot. The circulator who forged the signatures was arrested for 34 felonies. A late May lawsuit claiming at least 60 forged signatures based on the analysis of a handwriting expert and challenging Keyser's placement on the primary ballot was dismissed because it didn't fall within the five-day window to challenge a ballot placement. [10] [11]

When asked on-camera about the forgeries, Keyser didn't address the issue and proceeded to inform the interviewer that Keyser's dog was larger than the interviewer. [12]

In early June, when asked by a fellow Republican candidate and a retired air force lieutenant colonel whether Keyser received his Bronze Star for work on a software program or for "kicking in doors" in combat as "represented to the community", Keyser refused to answer the question and claimed he had "no idea" what software program his rival was talking about. Yet, according to the article announcing Keyser's citation, Keyser "developed and implemented a unique and effective technique to provide critical force protection and situational-awareness data to ground counter-terrorism operations." [13] [14]

In August 2014, Republican candidate Jack Graham was fired as Colorado State University Athletic Director for reasons that were not specified, though he would continue to be paid through the November 2016 election. [15] [16]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Rejected at convention

Declined

Endorsements

Darryl Glenn

Governors

U.S. Senators

Statewide officials

Mayors

Individuals

Organizations

Jon Keyser

Individuals

Tim Neville

Individuals

Organizations

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Glenn 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% Graham 20-30% 30-40% Colorado U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2016.svg
Results by county:
  Glenn
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Graham
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Darryl Glenn 131,125 37.74%
Republican Jack Graham85,40024.58%
Republican Robert Blaha57,19616.46%
Republican Jon Keyser43,50912.52%
Republican Ryan Frazier30,2418.70%
Total votes347,471 100.0%

Darryl Glenn won the general primary on June 28 and went on to face the other candidates in the November election. [85]

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Lily Tang Williams

General election

Debates

DatesLocationBennetGlennWilliamsLink
September 10, 2016 Grand Junction, Colorado ParticipantParticipantParticipant [92]
October 11, 2016 Denver, Colorado ParticipantParticipantNot invited [93]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [94] Likely DNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [95] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Inside Elections [96] Safe DNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [97] Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [98] Lean DNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Michael
Bennet (D)		Darryl
Glenn (R)		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [99] November 1–7, 20162,777± 4.6%52%45%—3%
SurveyMonkey [100] October 31–November 6, 20162,412± 4.6%51%45%—4%
Public Policy Polling [101] November 3–4, 2016704± 3.7%50%40%5% [102] 6%
Keating Research [103] November 2–3, 2016605± 4.0%49%38%5% [104] 5%
SurveyMonkey [105] October 28–November 3, 20161,927± 4.6%51%45%—4%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [106] November 1–2, 20161,125± 2.9%47%44%—9%
SurveyMonkey [107] October 27–November 2, 20161,631± 4.6%50%46%—4%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid [108] October 28–November 1, 2016972± 3.0%49%41%—10%
SurveyMonkey [109] October 26–November 1, 20161,402± 4.6%49%47%—4%
University of Denver [110] October 29–31, 2016550± 4.2%48%40%3%9%
Emerson College [111] October 28–31, 2016750± 3.5%47%42%6%5%
SurveyMonkey [112] October 25–31, 20161,532± 4.6%48%46%—6%
CBS News/YouGov [113] October 26–28, 2016997± 4.1%46%41%3%10%
University of Colorado Boulder [114] October 17–24, 20161,037± 3.6%54%40%6%0%
Quinnipiac University [115] October 10–16, 2016685± 3.7%56%38%—6%
Magellan Strategies (R) [116] October 12–13, 2016500± 4.4%47%32%9% [117] 12%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey [118] October 8–16, 2016956± 0.5%52%42%—6%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [119] October 12–13, 20161,226± 2.8%48%38%—13%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [120] October 3–4, 20161,246± 2.8%47%39%—15%
Monmouth University [121] September 29–October 2, 2016400± 4.9%53%35%7% [122] 5%
Public Policy Polling [123] September 27–28, 2016694± 3.7%44%34%7% [124] 15%
50%40%—10%
CNN/ORC [125] September 20–25, 2016784 LV± 3.5%53%43%1%2%
896 RV53%41%1%2%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [126] September 22–23, 2016799± 3.5%43%45%—12%
Quinnipiac University [127] September 13–21, 2016644± 3.9%52%43%1%4%
Colorado Mesa University/Rocky Mountain PBS [128] September 14–18, 2016350 LV± 6.3%42%31%4% [129] 22%
45%32%2%20%
540 RV± 5.1%38%26%5% [130] 31%
44%28%3%26%
Emerson College [131] September 9–13, 2016600± 3.6%46%39%7%8%
Magellan Strategies (R) [132] August 29–31, 2016500± 4.4%48%38%7% [122] 7%
Quinnipiac University [133] August 9–16, 2016830± 3.4%54%38%—8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [134] August 4–10, 2016899± 3.3%53%38%2%7%
FOX News [135] July 9–12, 2016600± 4.0%51%36%1%9%
Monmouth University [136] July 9–12, 2016404± 4.9%48%35%5% [104] 12%
Harper Polling [137] July 7–9, 2016500± 4.4%46%40%—14%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [138] July 5–11, 2016794± 3.5%53%38%2%7%
Senate Conservatives Fund [139] July 1–6, 2016500–47%42%—11%
Hypothetical polling

with Scott Tipton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Michael
Bennet (D)		Scott
Tipton (R)		OtherUndecided
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps [140] October 24–28, 20151,600± 3.2%50%44%—16%

with Mike Coffman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Michael
Bennet (D)		Mike
Coffman (R)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [141] March 29–April 7, 2015894± 3.3%40%43%4%14%

with Cynthia Coffman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Michael
Bennet (D)		Cynthia
Coffman (R)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [141] March 29–April 7, 2015894± 3.3%44%36%5%15%

Results

United States Senate election in Colorado, 2016 [142]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Michael Bennet (incumbent) 1,370,710 49.97% +1.89%
Republican Darryl Glenn1,215,31844.31%−2.09%
Libertarian Lily Tang Williams 99,2773.62%+2.35%
Green Arn Menconi 36,8051.34%−0.85%
Unity Bill Hammons9,3360.34%N/A
Independent Dan Chapin8,3610.30%N/A
Independent Paul Fiorino3,2160.12%N/A
Total votes2,743,023 100.0%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bennet won 4 of 7 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican. [143]

DistrictBennetGlennRepresentative
1st 69%26% Diana DeGette
2nd 56%37% Jared Polis
3rd 44%50% Scott Tipton
4th 38%57% Ken Buck
5th 36%58% Doug Lamborn
6th 51%44% Mike Coffman
7th 54%40% Ed Perlmutter

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References

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  2. ↑ "Lily Tang Williams announces candidacy for Colorado U.S. Senate seat as a Libertarian". Independent Political Report. January 12, 2016. Retrieved March 15, 2016.
  3. ↑ "2016 General Election Candidate List". sos.state.co.us. Archived from the original on October 28, 2016. Retrieved July 31, 2016.
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  8. ↑ "Jerry Natividad Changes Course, Seeks Ballot Through GOP Convention". ColoradoPols. March 8, 2016. Retrieved March 14, 2016.
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  32. 1 2 Goodland, Marianne (June 2, 2015). "Coffman's departure opens up Colorado's U.S. Senate race". The Colorado Independent . Retrieved June 3, 2015.
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  34. 1 2 Frank, John (March 1, 2016). "Lucky No. 13: Republican Jerry Natividad launches U.S. Senate bid". The Denver Post . Archived from the original on March 2, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
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  36. ↑ "Tim Neville Wastes No Time, Announces for U.S. Senate". Colorado Pols. October 5, 2015. Retrieved October 5, 2015.
  37. ↑ "JEFFCO SHOWDOWN? With Brauchler Out, Another Jeffco Republican Rumored to Consider a Run". Colorado Peak Politics. October 1, 2015. Retrieved November 3, 2015.
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  39. ↑ John, Frank (April 9, 2016). "Darryl Glenn surprises Colorado GOP Senate field at state convention". The Denver Post. Retrieved April 9, 2016.
  40. ↑ "Chatter: Neville prays about Senate bid while Bennet leadership flails". The Colorado Statesman. September 3, 2015. Archived from the original on September 5, 2015. Retrieved September 10, 2015.
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  47. 1 2 3 Levinson, Alexis (May 20, 2015). "What Happens If Coffman Says No". Roll Call . Archived from the original on May 21, 2015. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
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  49. ↑ Pathé, Simone (July 10, 2015). "Republicans Search for Another Cory Gardner to Challenge Bennet". Roll Call . Archived from the original on July 15, 2015. Retrieved July 19, 2015.
  50. 1 2 "The 10 states that could decide the next Senate". Politico. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 19, 2014.
  51. 1 2 3 Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico . Retrieved December 29, 2014.
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  53. ↑ Sylte, Allison (September 30, 2015). "George Brauchler says he won't run for Senate". KUSA . Retrieved September 30, 2015.[ permanent dead link ]
  54. ↑ "Rep. Ken Buck addresses ranchers' concerns". La Junta Tribune-Democrat . March 11, 2016. Archived from the original on April 5, 2017. Retrieved March 14, 2016.
  55. ↑ Luning, Ernest (September 19, 2015). "Neville listens, prays as he weighs U.S. Senate run". The Colorado Statesman. Archived from the original on September 26, 2015. Retrieved October 5, 2015.
  56. 1 2 Luning, Ernest (November 6, 2015). "Littleton exploring U.S. Senate bid". The Colorado Statesman. Archived from the original on November 10, 2015. Retrieved November 10, 2015.
  57. ↑ Levinson, Alexis (June 18, 2015). "Colorado AG Coffman Rules Out Senate Bid". National Review . Retrieved June 18, 2015.
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  59. ↑ Cahn, Emily (June 18, 2015). "@ColoradoForKopp was exploring a bid for #COSEN, but isn't anymore, according to a source". Twitter. Retrieved June 18, 2015.
  60. ↑ Bartels, Lynn (June 23, 2015). "Ellen Roberts cites fundraising as why she won't take on Sen. Bennet". The Denver Post . Retrieved June 23, 2015.
  61. ↑ Raju, Manu (August 31, 2015). "Chaos in Colorado risks key Senate seat for GOP". Politico . Retrieved October 5, 2015.
  62. ↑ "OUT: Mitt Romney's Nephew, Doug Robinson, Declines Senate Run, But Will Endorse". Colorado Peak Politics. January 4, 2016. Retrieved January 6, 2016.
  63. ↑ "Ghosts of Senate Past and Mark Scheffel Stir Up 2016". Colorado Pols. September 18, 2015. Retrieved November 3, 2015.
  64. ↑ "Republicans are circling, not yet pouncing on Bennet". The Colorado Statesman. September 19, 2015. Archived from the original on September 23, 2015. Retrieved November 3, 2015.
  65. ↑ Luning, Ernest (October 8, 2015). "Scott considers jumping in GOP U.S. Senate primary". The Colorado Statesman. Archived from the original on October 11, 2015. Retrieved October 8, 2015.
  66. ↑ Bunch, Joey (January 30, 2016). "Sen. Ray Scott says he's considering a run for governor in '18". The Denver Post . Archived from the original on January 31, 2016. Retrieved February 1, 2016.
  67. ↑ Bunch, Joey (October 23, 2015). "Sheriff Justin Smith picks Larimer County over run for U.S. Senate". The Denver Post . Archived from the original on October 24, 2015. Retrieved October 23, 2015.
  68. ↑ Salzman, Jason (October 15, 2015). "Sonnenberg decides against U.S. Senate run but says two or three more candidates may jump in". Colorado Pols. Retrieved October 17, 2015.
  69. ↑ Pathé, Simone (December 11, 2015). "Scott Tipton Not Running for Colorado Senate Seat". Roll Call . Archived from the original on December 14, 2015. Retrieved December 13, 2015.
  70. ↑ "PRESS RELEASE: Family Research Council Endorsement". Robert Blaha for Colorado. Retrieved June 6, 2016.[ permanent dead link ]
  71. ↑ "ENDORSEMENT: Bold Blaha best choice". Robert Blaha for Colorado. Retrieved June 10, 2016.
  72. ↑ "Sarah Palin endorses Darryl Glenn in Colorado's U.S. Senate primary". denverpost.com. June 7, 2016. Retrieved April 14, 2019.
  73. ↑ "In Colorado, Cruz backs Glenn, rips Obama over Orlando shooter". The Denver Post . June 20, 2016. Retrieved June 20, 2016.
  74. ↑ Frank, John (July 9, 2016). "Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner endorses Darryl Glenn in unusual political marriage". The Denver Post . Retrieved October 7, 2016.
  75. ↑ on 10/13/2016 - 10:33pm, The Associated Press. "Utah Sen. Lee Will Campaign For Darryl Glenn". Colorado Public Radio. Archived from the original on October 31, 2016. Retrieved April 14, 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  76. ↑ Glenn, Darryl [@DarrylGlenn2016] (October 5, 2016). "A message from @RandPaul! Thank you for your support and endorsement! #cosen #copolitics" (Tweet). Archived from the original on December 8, 2016 – via Twitter.
  77. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Proud to be on Team Glenn!". Darryl Glenn for U.S. Senate. Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  78. 1 2 3 4 "El Paso County Law Enforcement Members Endorse Darryl Glenn for US Senate". Darryl Glenn for U.S. Senate. February 7, 2015. Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  79. ↑ Fiorina, Carly (October 1, 2016). "Darryl Glenn is the conservative leader Colorado needs. Here's why I'm proud to endorse him for U.S. Senate: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p..." Twitter . Retrieved October 5, 2016.
  80. ↑ "Mark Levin interviews Darryl Glenn". Youtube.
  81. ↑ "SCF Endorses Darryl Glenn for U.S. Senate". Senate Conservatives. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
  82. 1 2 3 "Tom Tancredo, Bill Owens and Hank Brown endorse Jon Keyser". The Denver Post. March 14, 2016. Archived from the original on March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 15, 2016.
  83. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 "Neville Rolls Out First Slate of Endorsements". Tim Neville for U.S. Senate. Archived from the original on February 19, 2016. Retrieved February 19, 2015.
  84. ↑ "Phyllis Schlafly Endorses Tim Neville for U.S. Senate". Eagle Forum. April 4, 2016.
  85. ↑ "United States Senate election in Colorado, 2016". Ballotpedia. June 28, 2016. Retrieved June 28, 2016.
  86. ↑ "Boulder County Republican, Democratic party chiefs prepare for 2016 election battles". timescall.com. November 13, 2015. Retrieved November 15, 2015.
  87. ↑ "2016 General Election Petition Candidates". sos.state.co.us. Retrieved July 31, 2016.
  88. ↑ "Greater Boulder Green Party Endorses Arn Menconi for U.S. Senate". January 9, 2016. Archived from the original on March 31, 2016. Retrieved March 20, 2016.
  89. ↑ Vela, Vic (November 6, 2015). "Mr. Frog: A slowly boiling candidate leaps into the U.S. Senate race". The Colorado Statesman. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved December 13, 2015.
  90. ↑ Craig, Andy (January 12, 2016). "Lily Tang Williams announces candidacy for Colorado U.S. Senate seat as a Libertarian". Independent Political Report. Retrieved January 12, 2016.
  91. ↑ "Austin Petersen - She's one of a very few select candidates I've endorsed, so I'll be doing whatever I can to help her". Facebook . Retrieved September 7, 2016.
  92. ↑ Full debate
  93. ↑ Full debate
  94. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  95. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  96. ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  97. ↑ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  98. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  99. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  100. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  101. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  102. ↑ Williams (L) with 3%, Menconi (G) with 1%, and "Other" with 1%
  103. ↑ Keating Research
  104. 1 2 Williams (L) with 3% and Menconi (G) with 2%
  105. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  106. ↑ Breitbart/Gravis Marketing
  107. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  108. ↑ The Times-Picayune/Lucid
  109. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  110. ↑ University of Denver
  111. ↑ Emerson College
  112. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  113. ↑ CBS News/YouGov
  114. ↑ University of Colorado Boulder
  115. ↑ Quinnipiac University Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  116. ↑ Magellan Strategies (R)
  117. ↑ Williams (L) with 3%, Menconi (G) with 4%, and "Other" with 2%
  118. ↑ Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  119. ↑ Breitbart/Gravis Marketing
  120. ↑ Breitbart/Gravis Marketing Archived February 25, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  121. ↑ Monmouth University
  122. 1 2 Williams (L) with 4% and Menconi (G) with 3%
  123. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  124. ↑ Williams (L) with 4%, Menconi (G) with 2%, and "Other" with 1%
  125. ↑ CNN/ORC
  126. ↑ Breitbart/Gravis Marketing
  127. ↑ Quinnipiac University Archived September 24, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  128. ↑ Colorado Mesa University/Rocky Mountain PBS
  129. ↑ Williams (L) with 3% and Menconi (G) with 1%
  130. ↑ Williams (L) with 4% and Menconi (G) with 1%
  131. ↑ Emerson College
  132. ↑ Magellan Strategies (R)
  133. ↑ Quinnipiac University Archived October 14, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  134. ↑ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  135. ↑ FOX News
  136. ↑ Monmouth University
  137. ↑ Harper Polling Archived July 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  138. ↑ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  139. ↑ Senate Conservatives Fund
  140. ↑ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived February 28, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  141. 1 2 Quinnipiac University Archived April 17, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  142. ↑ "Official Results November 8, 2016 General Election". Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2016.
  143. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

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