2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico

Not to be confused with 2024 New Mexico Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico

←  2018 November 5, 2024 2030  →
Turnout	65.3%
Nominee Martin Heinrich Nella Domenici Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 497,333 405,978 Percentage 55.06% 44.94%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Heinrich:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Domenici:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Tie:     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election Martin Heinrich Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican financier Nella Domenici. ^[1] Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed. ^[2] Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late father Pete did so in 2002.

Heinrich was first elected in 2012 by a 5.7-point margin, succeeding longtime Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman. In 2018, Heinrich was reelected to his second term by an overwhelming 23.6-point margin, but this was largely due to the presence of third-party candidate and former governor of the state Gary Johnson, who ran as a Libertarian and garnered over 15% of the vote. Come Election Day in 2024, Heinrich was reelected to a third term in office by 10.12%, receiving 55.1% of the statewide vote to Domenici's 44.9%. While an underperformance of his 2018 margin, his margin of victory was an overperformance of Kamala Harris' 6-point victory in the state in the concurrent presidential election.

Heinrich also held his own quite well at a county-by-county level, particularly when compared to the performances of Kamala Harris. For immediate example, Heinrich carried the counties of Guadalupe and Cibola by 21.7% and 13.2%, respectively, which Harris carried in the concurrent presidential election by meager margins of 0.72% and 1.6%, respectively. Heinrich also carried Socorro County by around 4.8%, which was carried by Donald Trump in the presidential race by around 4%.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Martin Heinrich, incumbent U.S. senator ^[1]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D)	$9,067,125	$5,341,198	$4,380,901
Source: Federal Election Commission [3]

Results

Democratic primary results ^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Martin Heinrich (incumbent)	122,961	100.0%
Total votes			122,961	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Nella Domenici, former CFO of Bridgewater Associates and daughter of former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici ^[5]

Disqualified

• Manuel Gonzales III, former Democratic Bernalillo County Sheriff (2014–2022) and candidate for mayor of Albuquerque in 2021 ^[6]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Nella Domenici (R)	$1,525,766	$464,576	$1,061,190
Source: Federal Election Commission [3]

Results

Republican primary results ^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Nella Domenici	79,809	100.0%
Total votes			79,809	100.0%

Independents and third-party candidates

Candidates

Filed paperwork

• Cameron Chick (Independent), businessman ^[7]
• Ben Luna (Independence Party), businessman ^[8]
• Jerry Rose (Independent) ^[9]
• Tom Wakely (Green) ^[10]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [11]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections [12]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13]	Safe D	November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [14]	Likely D	October 30, 2024
Elections Daily [15]	Safe D	May 4, 2023
CNalysis [16]	Solid D	November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [17]	Lean D	August 5, 2024
Split Ticket [18]	Likely D	October 30, 2024
538 [19]	Solid D	October 23, 2024

Endorsements

Martin Heinrich (D)

Organizations

• 314 Action ^[20]
• End Citizens United ^[21]
• Feminist Majority PAC ^[22]
• Humane Society Legislative Fund ^[23]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America ^[24]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs ^[25]
• J Street PAC ^[26]
• League of Conservation Voters ^[27]
• Natural Resources Defense Council ^[28]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund ^[29]
• Population Connection Action Fund ^[30]

Labor unions

• AFSCME Council 18 ^[31]

Nella Domenici (R)

Organizations

• National Republican Senatorial Committee ^[32]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D)	$12,502,263	$10,330,618	$2,826,618
Nella Domenici (R)	$4,777,524 [a]	$4,377,754	$399,769
Source: Federal Election Commission [3]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Martin Heinrich (D)	Nella Domenici (R)	Undecided [b]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight [33]	through November 3, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.4%	38.9%	12.7%	Heinrich +9.5
RCP [34]	June 13 – October 26, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.7%	39.3%	12.0%	Heinrich +9.4
270ToWin [35]	October 22 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	50.5%	44.5%	5.0%	Heinrich +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ [36]	through November 3, 2024	November 4, 2024	50.8%	43.1%	6.1%	Heinrich +7.7%
Average			49.6%	41.5%	8.9%	Heinrich +8.1%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Nella Domenici (R)	Other	Undecided
Victory Insights (R) [37]	November 1–3, 2024	600 (LV)	–	50%	48%	–	1%
Research & Polling Inc. [38] [A]	October 10–18, 2024	1,024 (LV)	± 3.1%	51%	40%	1% [d]	7%
SurveyUSA [39] [B]	September 12–18, 2024	619 (LV)	± 5.4%	47%	34%	–	19%
Research & Polling Inc. [40] [A]	September 6–13, 2024	532 (LV)	± 4.2%	50%	38%	4% [e]	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [41] [C]	September 6–9, 2024	521 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	37%	6% [f]	11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [42] [C]	August 25–28, 2024	488 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	33%	4% [g]	19%
Emerson College [43] [D]	August 20–22, 2024	965 (RV)	± 3.1%	49%	37%	4% [h]	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [44] [C]	August 12–15, 2024	453 (LV)	± 4.1%	42%	36%	7% [i]	15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [45] [C]	July 31 – August 3, 2024	493 (LV)	± 4.1%	40%	34%	4% [j]	21%
1892 Polling (R) [46] [E]	June 19–24, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	42%	–	10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [47] [F]	June 13–14, 2024	555 (V)	± 4.2%	47%	40%	–	13%
Red Oak Strategies (R) [48] [E]	May 7–19, 2024	1,800 (LV)	± 2.3%	41%	38%	–	21%
1892 Polling (R) [46] [E]	March 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	36%	–	–

Results

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico ^[49]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Martin Heinrich (incumbent)	497,333	55.06%	+0.97%
	Republican	Nella Domenici	405,978	44.94%	+14.41%
Total votes			903,311	100.0%
Turnout				65.33%	+10.33
	Democratic hold

By county

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico (by county) ^[50]

County	Martin Heinrich Democratic		Nella Domenici Republican		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%
Bernalillo	187,163	61.42%	117,575	38.58%	67,598	22.84%	304,738
Catron	615	26.84%	1,676	73.16%	-1,061	-46.32%	2,291
Chaves	6,723	31.10%	14,891	68.90%	-8,168	-37.80%	21,614
Cibola	4,955	56.59%	3,801	43.41%	1,154	13.18%	8,756
Colfax	2,706	47.17%	3,031	52.83%	-325	-5.66%	5,737
Curry	4,532	30.81%	10,176	69.19%	-5,644	-38.38%	14,708
De Baca	268	31.42%	585	68.58%	-317	-37.16%	853
Doña Ana	46,715	56.24%	36,355	43.76%	10,360	12.48%	83,070
Eddy	5,979	25.69%	16,775	74.31%	-10,796	-48.62%	22,574
Grant	7,800	55.98%	6,133	44.02%	1,667	11.96%	13,933
Guadalupe	1,143	60.86%	735	39.14%	408	21.72%	1,878
Harding	138	32.86%	282	67.14%	-144	-34.28%	420
Hidalgo	785	44.48%	980	55.52%	-195	-11.04%	1,765
Lea	4,563	22.35%	15,852	77.65%	-11,289	-55.30%	20,415
Lincoln	3,270	32.78%	6,706	67.22%	-3,436	-34.44%	9,976
Los Alamos	7,761	64.00%	4,365	36.00%	3,396	28.00%	12,126
Luna	3,547	45.76%	4,205	54.24%	-658	-8.48%	7,752
McKinley	17,064	67.56%	8,195	32.44%	8,869	35.12%	25,259
Mora	1,532	63.89%	866	36.11%	666	27.78%	2,398
Otero	9,229	39.48%	14,147	60.52%	-4,918	-21.04%	23,376
Quay	1,174	32.79%	2,406	67.21%	-1,232	-34.42%	3,580
Rio Arriba	10,035	64.50%	5,524	35.50%	4,511	29.00%	15,559
Roosevelt	1,951	29.97%	4,559	70.03%	-2,608	-40.06%	6,510
San Juan	19,078	37.05%	32,417	62.95%	-13,339	-25.90%	51,495
San Miguel	7,447	68.48%	3,427	31.52%	4,020	36.96%	10,874
Sandoval	42,473	54.15%	35,959	45.85%	6,514	8.30%	78,432
Santa Fe	62,312	75.53%	20,183	24.47%	42,129	51.06%	82,495
Sierra	2,553	43.85%	3,269	56.15%	-716	-12.30%	5,822
Socorro	3,704	52.40%	3,365	47.60%	339	4.80%	7,069
Taos	12,457	76.40%	3,849	23.60%	8,608	52.80%	16,306
Torrance	2,454	34.78%	4,601	65.22%	-2,147	-30.44%	7,055
Union	397	24.39%	1,231	75.61%	-834	-51.22%	1,628
Valencia	14,810	45.34%	17,857	54.66%	-3,047	-9.32%	32,677
Totals	497,333	55.06%	405,978	44.94%	91,355	10.12%	903,311

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Colfax (largest municipality: Raton)
• Hidalgo (largest municipality: Lordsburg)
• Luna (largest municipality: Deming)
• Valencia (largest municipality: Los Lunas)

By congressional district

Heinrich won all three congressional districts. ^[51]

District	Heinrich	Domenici	Representative
1st	57.1%	42.9%	Melanie Stansbury
2nd	52.0%	48.0%	Gabe Vasquez
3rd	55.4%	44.6%	Teresa Leger Fernandez

Notes

1. $1,510,000 of this total was self-funded by Domenici
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. "Neither" with 1%
5. "Neither" with 4%
6. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; and "Other" with 2%
7. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 2%
8. "Someone else" with 4%
9. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
10. "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by The Albuquerque Journal
2. Poll sponsored by KOB
3. Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
4. Poll sponsored by The Hill
5. Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Domenici
6. Poll sponsored by New Mexico Political Report

References

1. Boetel, Ryan (May 4, 2023). "Heinrich announces re-election campaign". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
2. "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
3. "2024 Election United States Senate - New Mexico". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved July 19, 2024.
4. "2024 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State.
5. Mutnick, Ally (January 16, 2023). "Daughter of former GOP senator launches Senate run in New Mexico". Politico . Retrieved January 17, 2024.
6. Cook, Cathy (February 13, 2024). "Former Bernalillo County sheriff disqualified from Senate race". Albuquerque Journal . Retrieved February 14, 2024.
7. "CHICK, CAMERON MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
8. "LUNA, BENJAMIN RALPH #1728 - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
9. "ROSE, JERRY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
10. "WAKELY, THOMAS JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
11. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
12. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
13. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
14. "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
15. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
16. "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
17. "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved August 5, 2024.
18. "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
19. "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on October 26, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
20. "314 Action Fund Endorses New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich for re-election". 314 Action.
21. "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 31, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
22. "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
23. "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
24. "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
25. "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
26. "Martin Heinrich". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
27. "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
28. Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
29. "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund . Retrieved November 6, 2023.
30. "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
31. "AFSCME Council 18 Endorsements - New Mexico". AFSCME Council 18. May 20, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
32. Ross, Alex (January 21, 2024). "Domenici nets signatures needed for primary ballot". Roswell Daily Record . Retrieved January 26, 2024.
33. FiveThirtyEight
34. RCP
35. 270ToWin
36. TheHill/DDHQ
37. Victory Insights (R)
38. Research & Polling Inc.
39. SurveyUSA
40. Research & Polling Inc.
41. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
42. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
43. Emerson College
44. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
45. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
46. 1892 Polling (R)
47. Public Policy Polling (D)
48. Red Oak Strategies (R)
49. "2024 General Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Mexico . November 26, 2024. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
50. "Statewide Offices & Questions". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2025.
51. "2024 U.S. Senate Election in New Mexico by Congressional District".

External links

Official campaign websites

• Cameron Chick (I) for Senate
• Nella Domenici (R) for Senate
• Martin Heinrich (D) for Senate
• Ben Luna (IP) for Senate