2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Flag of New Mexico.svg
←  2018 November 5, 20242030 →
Turnout65.3% Increase2.svg
  Heinrich Official Headshot 2019 (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Martin Heinrich Nella Domenici
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote497,333405,978
Percentage55.06%44.94%
2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico results map by county.svg
2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico results by congressional district.svg
NM Senate 2024.svg
Heinrich:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Domenici:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican financier Nella Domenici. [1] Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed. [2] Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late father Pete did so in 2002.

Contents

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D)$9,067,125$5,341,198$4,380,901
Source: Federal Election Commission [3]

Results

Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 122,961 100.0%
Total votes122,961 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Nella Domenici (R)$1,525,766$464,576$1,061,190
Source: Federal Election Commission [3]

Results

Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Nella Domenici 79,809 100.0%
Total votes79,809 100.0%

Independents and third-party candidates

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Cameron Chick (Independent), businessman [7]
  • Ben Luna (Independence Party), businessman [8]
  • Jerry Rose (Independent) [9]
  • Tom Wakely (Green) [10]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [11] Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [12] Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13] Safe DNovember 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [14] Likely DOctober 30, 2024
Elections Daily [15] Safe DMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [16] Solid DNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [17] Lean DAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket [18] Likely DOctober 30, 2024
538 [19] Solid DOctober 23, 2024

Endorsements

Nella Domenici (R)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D)$12,502,263$10,330,618$2,826,618
Nella Domenici (R)$4,777,524 [a] $4,377,754$399,769
Source: Federal Election Commission [3]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Nella
Domenici (R)		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight [33] through November 3, 2024November 4, 202448.4%38.9%12.7%Heinrich +9.5
RCP [34] June 13 – October 26, 2024November 4, 202448.7%39.3%12.0%Heinrich +9.4
270ToWin [35] October 22 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.5%44.5%5.0%Heinrich +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ [36] through November 3, 2024November 4, 202450.8%43.1%6.1%Heinrich +7.7%
Average49.6%41.5%8.9%Heinrich +8.1%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Nella
Domenici (R)		OtherUndecided
Victory Insights (R) [37] November 1–3, 2024600 (LV)–50%48%–1%
Research & Polling Inc. [38] [A] October 10–18, 20241,024 (LV)± 3.1%51%40%1% [d] 7%
SurveyUSA [39] [B] September 12–18, 2024619 (LV)± 5.4%47%34%–19%
Research & Polling Inc. [40] [A] September 6–13, 2024532 (LV)± 4.2%50%38%4% [e] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [41] [C] September 6–9, 2024521 (LV)± 3.9%47%37%6% [f] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [42] [C] August 25–28, 2024488 (LV)± 4.0%43%33%4% [g] 19%
Emerson College [43] [D] August 20–22, 2024965 (RV)± 3.1%49%37%4% [h] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [44] [C] August 12–15, 2024453 (LV)± 4.1%42%36%7% [i] 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [45] [C] July 31 – August 3, 2024493 (LV)± 4.1%40%34%4% [j] 21%
1892 Polling (R) [46] [E] June 19–24, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%42%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [47] [F] June 13–14, 2024555 (V)± 4.2%47%40%–13%
Red Oak Strategies (R) [48] [E] May 7–19, 20241,800 (LV)± 2.3%41%38%–21%
1892 Polling (R) [46] [E] March 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%36%––

Results

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 497,333 55.06% +0.97
Republican Nella Domenici405,97844.94%+14.41
Total votes903,311 100.00%
Turnout 65.33%+10.33
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Heinrich won all 3 congressional districts. [50]

DistrictHeinrichDomeniciRepresentative
1st 57%43% Melanie Stansbury
2nd 52%48% Gabe Vasquez
3rd 55%45% Teresa Leger Fernandez

Notes

  1. ↑ $1,510,000 of this total was self-funded by Domenici
  2. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ↑ "Neither" with 1%
  5. ↑ "Neither" with 4%
  6. ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; and "Other" with 2%
  7. ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 2%
  8. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
  9. ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
  10. ↑ "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Albuquerque Journal
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by KOB
  3. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  5. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Domenici
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by New Mexico Political Report

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References

  1. 1 2 Boetel, Ryan (May 4, 2023). "Heinrich announces re-election campaign". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  2. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  3. 1 2 3 "2024 Election United States Senate - New Mexico". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  4. 1 2 "2024 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State.
  5. ↑ Mutnick, Ally (January 16, 2023). "Daughter of former GOP senator launches Senate run in New Mexico". Politico . Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  6. ↑ Cook, Cathy (February 13, 2024). "Former Bernalillo County sheriff disqualified from Senate race". Albuquerque Journal . Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  7. ↑ "CHICK, CAMERON MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  8. ↑ "LUNA, BENJAMIN RALPH #1728 - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  9. ↑ "ROSE, JERRY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  10. ↑ "WAKELY, THOMAS JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  11. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  12. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  13. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  14. ↑ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  15. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  16. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  18. ↑ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  19. ↑ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  20. ↑ "314 Action Fund Endorses New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich for re-election". 314 Action.
  21. ↑ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 31, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  22. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  23. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  24. ↑ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  25. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  26. ↑ "Martin Heinrich". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  27. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  28. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  29. ↑ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund . Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  30. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  31. ↑ "AFSCME Council 18 Endorsements - New Mexico". AFSCME Council 18. May 20, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  32. ↑ Ross, Alex (January 21, 2024). "Domenici nets signatures needed for primary ballot". Roswell Daily Record . Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  33. ↑ FiveThirtyEight
  34. ↑ RCP
  35. ↑ 270ToWin
  36. ↑ TheHill/DDHQ
  37. ↑ Victory Insights (R)
  38. ↑ Research & Polling Inc.
  39. ↑ SurveyUSA
  40. ↑ Research & Polling Inc.
  41. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  42. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  43. ↑ Emerson College
  44. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  45. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  46. 1 2 1892 Polling (R)
  47. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  48. ↑ Red Oak Strategies (R)
  49. ↑ "2024 General Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Mexico . November 26, 2024. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
  50. ↑ "2024 U.S. Senate Election in New Mexico by Congressional District".

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