2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico

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2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Flag of New Mexico.svg
←  2006 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018  →
  Martin Heinrich, official portrait, 112th Congress crop.jpg Heather Wilson official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Martin Heinrich Heather Wilson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote395,717351,259
Percentage51.01%45.28%
2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico results map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico election results by congressional district.svg
Heinrich:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Wilson:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Jeff Bingaman
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a sixth term. [1] Democratic U.S. Representative Martin Heinrich won the open seat.

Contents

Background

Incumbent Jeff Bingaman won re-election to a fifth term with 70.61% of the vote against Allen McCulloch in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in New Mexico.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Hector
Balderas		Martin
Heinrich		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [10] June 23–26, 2011400± 4.9%24%47%—29%
Magellan Strategies [11] July 17–18, 2011636± 3.9%21%54%—25%
Public Policy Polling [12] December 10–12, 2011309± 5.6%30%47%—23%
Public Policy Polling [13] April 19–22, 2012270± 6%27%51%—22%
Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling [14] May 21–24, 2012741± 3.6%26%51%—23%

Endorsements

Hector Balderas

State officials

New Mexico state senators

New Mexico state representatives

New Mexico Mayors

Results

Results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Heinrich 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Balderas 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% NM Senate Democratic primary, 2012.svg
Results by county
  Heinrich
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Balderas
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Martin Heinrich 83,432 58.9
Democratic Hector Balderas58,12841.1
Total votes141,560 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
English		John
Sanchez		Greg
Sowards		Heather
Wilson		OtherUndecided
Magellan Strategies [28] April 26–27, 2011801± 3.5%—17%2%59%11%11%
Public Policy Polling [10] June 23–26, 2011400± 4.9%4%24%8%52%—12%
Magellan Strategies [29] July 17–18, 2011799± 3.5%2%21%5%56%—16%
Public Policy Polling [30] December 10–12, 2011300± 5.7%3%20%6%55%—16%
Albuquerque Journal [31] May 21–24, 2012504± 4.4%——20%66%—14%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
English		Gary
Johnson		John
Sanchez		Greg
Sowards		Heather
Wilson		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [30] December 10–12, 2011300± 5.7%1%31%15%3%42%—9%

Endorsements

Heather Wilson

Federal officials

State officials

New Mexico state senators

New Mexico state representatives

New Mexico Mayors

Results

Results by county: Wilson--70-80% Wilson--60-70% Wilson--50-60% Sowards--50-60% NM U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2012.svg
Results by county:
  Wilson—70–80%
  Wilson—60–70%
  Wilson—50–60%
  Sowards—50–60%
Republican primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Heather Wilson 63,631 70.0
Republican Greg Sowards27,21430.0
Total votes90,845 100

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Martin Heinrich (D)$3,883,992$2,174,712$1,763,753$89,424
Heather Wilson (R)$4,048,847$2,416,328$1,632,517$0
Jon Barrie (I)$705$1,150$0$445
Source: Federal Election Commission [35] [36] [37]

Top contributors

[38]

Martin HeinrichContributionHeather WilsonContribution
League of Conservation Voters $108,634 Elliott Management Corporation $29,413
JStreetPAC $67,860Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
University of New Mexico $24,221Kelly PAC$15,000
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP $23,000 Blue Cross & Blue Shield $14,050
Council for a Livable World $20,044 Devon Energy $13,250
National Rural Letter Carriers' Association $19,000Murray Energy$12,800
Comcast Corporation $11,250Yates Petroleum$12,600
Presbyterian Healthcare Services$11,150 Livingston Group $12,249
Intel Corp $10,500Publix Super Markets$11,000
American Optometric Association $10,250Westport Construction$10,500

Top industries

[39]

Martin HeinrichContributionHeather WilsonContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $322,120Retired$355,880
Retired$270,598 Oil & Gas $217,500
Lobbyists $156,480 Leadership PACs $206,225
Environmental organizations $145,365 Financial Institutions $163,888
Leadership PACs$100,000Lobbyists$113,549
Health Professionals $95,729Lawyers/Law Firms$106,852
Pro-Israel $83,860 Real Estate $95,990
Public Sector Unions $67,000Misc Finance$72,407
Democratic/Liberal$64,300Business Services$72,078
Casinos/Gambling $58,550 Mining $69,200

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [40] Lean DNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [41] Likely DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [42] Lean DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [43] Likely DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Heather
Wilson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] February 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%50%39%—11%
Public Policy Polling [45] June 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%47%42%—11%
Public Policy Polling [12] December 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%47%40%—13%
Rasmussen Reports [46] February 14, 2012500± 4.5%45%43%5%7%
Rasmussen Reports [47] April 3, 2012500± 4.5%46%42%7%6%
Public Policy Polling [12] April 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%48%43%—9%
Public Policy Polling [48] July 13–16, 2012724± 3.6%48%43%—9%
Rasmussen Reports [47] August 21, 2012500± 4.5%48%41%5%7%
Albuquerque Journal [49] September 3–6, 2012667± 3.8%49%42%—8%
Public Policy Polling [50] September 7–9, 20121,122± 2.9%50%41%—9%
We Ask America [51] September 25–27, 20121,258± 2.85%52%41%—7%
Public Policy Polling [52] October 2–3, 2012778± n/a%51%41%—8%
Rasmussen Reports [47] October 8, 2012500± 4.5%52%39%4%5%
Albuquerque Poll Journal [53] October 9–11, 2012658± 3.8%48%39%4%9%
Public Policy Polling [54] October 23–24, 2012727± n/a%52%44%—3%
Albuquerque Poll Journal [55] October 23–25, 2012662± 3.8%50%42%3%6%
Hypothetical polling

with Jeff Bingaman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Bingaman (D)		Gary
Johnson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] February 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%51%40%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Bingaman (D)		Steve
Pearce (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] February 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%57%34%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Bingaman (D)		Heather
Wilson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] February 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%56%37%—9%

with Hector Balderas

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Hector
Balderas (D)		Gary
Johnson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [12] December 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%38%44%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Hector
Balderas (D)		Greg
Sowards (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [45] June 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%42%28%—30%
Public Policy Polling [12] December 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%44%30%—27%
Public Policy Polling [12] April 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%42%30%—28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Hector
Balderas (D)		Heather
Wilson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [45] June 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%45%39%—16%
Public Policy Polling [12] December 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%43%43%—14%
Rasmussen Reports [46] February 14, 2012500± 4.5%44%44%3%9%
Rasmussen Reports [47] April 3, 2012500± 4.5%42%43%5%9%
Public Policy Polling [12] April 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%44%43%—12%

with Ben Ray Luján

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ben Ray
Luján (D)		Gary
Johnson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] February 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%40%45%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ben Ray
Luján (D)		Steve
Pearce (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] February 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%49%37%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ben Ray
Luján (D)		Heather
Wilson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] February 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%48%40%—12%

with Martin Heinrich

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Gary
Johnson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] February 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%43%44%—14%
Public Policy Polling [12] December 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%43%43%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Steve
Pearce (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] February 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%53%38%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Greg
Sowards (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [45] June 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%46%34%—20%
Public Policy Polling [12] December 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%49%31%—20%
Public Policy Polling [12] April 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%48%34%—18%

Results

2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico [56]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Martin Heinrich 395,717 51.01% −19.60%
Republican Heather Wilson 351,25945.28%+15.95%
Independent American Jon Barrie28,1993.63%N/A
Independent Robert L. Anderson (write-in)6170.08%N/A
Total votes775,792 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Heinrich won two of three congressional districts. [57]

DistrictHeinrichWilsonRepresentative
1st 53.5%43.34% Michelle Lujan Grisham
2nd 44.37%51.15% Steve Pearce
3rd 54.15%42.42% Ben Ray Luján

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Cillizza, Chris (February 19, 2011). "Bingaman won't run for Senate in 2012". The Washington Post . Retrieved February 19, 2011.
  2. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle (April 26, 2011). "Balderas Enters N.M. Senate Race Against Heinrich". Roll Call . Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  3. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle (April 2, 2011). "Heinrich Makes N.M. Senate Bid Official". Roll Call . Archived from the original on April 4, 2011. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  4. ↑ Haussamen, Heath (June 29, 2011). "Chávez is running for Congress; Denish isn't". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  5. ↑ Catanese, David (June 29, 2011). "Chavez sets up primary for Heinrich seat". Politico . Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  6. ↑ "Andres Valdez Out of U.S. Senate Race". Albuquerque Journal. Associated Press. February 14, 2012. Archived from the original on April 25, 2013. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  7. ↑ Catanese, David (July 6, 2011). "Diane Denish endorses Balderas". Politico . Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  8. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle (July 6, 2011). "Denish to Endorse Balderas in N.M. Senate Primary". Roll Call . Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  9. ↑ Catanese, David (April 25, 2011). "Ben Ray Lujan won't run for Senate". Politico . Retrieved April 25, 2011.
  10. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  11. ↑ Magellan Strategies
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Public Policy Polling
  13. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  14. ↑ Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Archived June 7, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  15. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle (December 6, 2011). "Martin Heinrich Nabs Raúl Grijalva's Support in Senate Race". Roll Call . Archived from the original on May 11, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  16. 1 2 3 "Individual Endorsements". Martin Heinrich for Senate. Archived from the original on May 9, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  17. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 "Endorsements". Martin Heinrich for Senate. Archived from the original on May 9, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  18. ↑ "NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC Announces New Endorsements in Key House, Senate Contests to End War on Women". NARAL Pro-Choice America. April 3, 2012. Archived from the original on May 12, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  19. ↑ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Martin Heinrich for U. S. Senate". Martin Heinrich for Senate. February 21, 2012. Archived from the original on October 1, 2012. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
  20. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 "Endorsements". Balderas for Senate 2012. Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  21. 1 2 "Canvass of Returns of Primary Election Held on June 5, 2012 – State of New Mexico" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Mexico . Archived from the original (PDF) on November 4, 2013. Retrieved August 3, 2012.
  22. ↑ Haussamen, Heath (December 16, 2010). "Sowards announces candidacy for Senate". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
  23. 1 2 Haussamen, Heath (March 7, 2011). "Wilson formally enters U.S. Senate race". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  24. ↑ "Republican Candidate Bill English Withdraws from New Mexico U.S. Senate Race, Endorses Sowards". Tea Party Tribune. January 11, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  25. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle (February 9, 2012). "Republican John Sanchez Drops New Mexico Senate Bid". Roll Call . Archived from the original on February 13, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  26. ↑ Burns, Peter (February 18, 2011). "Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson will not run for Senate". The Washington Examiner . Archived from the original on June 14, 2012. Retrieved February 18, 2011.
  27. ↑ "Pearce re-election committee has balance of $682K". Las Cruces Sun-News . April 17, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.[ permanent dead link ]
  28. ↑ Magellan Strategies [ permanent dead link ]
  29. ↑ Magellan Strategies [ permanent dead link ]
  30. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  31. ↑ Albuquerque Journal Archived June 7, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  32. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 "Endorsements". Heather Wilson for United States Senate. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  33. ↑ Jon Barrie
  34. ↑ Peters, Joey (January 5, 2012). "Independent With Libertarian Bent Announces Bid For US Senate". Santa Fe Reporter . Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  35. ↑ Martin Heinrich Campaign Finances
  36. ↑ Heather Wilson Campaign Finances
  37. ↑ Jon Barrie Campaign Finances
  38. ↑ Top Contributors 2012 Race: New Mexico Senate, OpenSecrets
  39. ↑ Donors by Industries (opensecrets.org)
  40. ↑ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  41. ↑ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  42. ↑ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  43. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  44. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Public Policy Polling
  45. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
  46. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  47. 1 2 3 4 Rasmussen Reports
  48. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  49. ↑ Albuquerque Journal Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  50. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  51. ↑ We Ask America
  52. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  53. ↑ Albuquerque Poll Journal Archived October 17, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  54. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  55. ↑ Albuquerque Poll Journal
  56. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 4, 2013. Retrieved January 19, 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  57. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

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