2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
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  Elizabeth Warren--2016 Official Portrait--(cropped).jpg John Deaton, 2024 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Elizabeth Warren John Deaton
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,041,6931,365,445
Percentage59.90%40.10%
2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts results map by county.svg
2024 United States Senate Election in Massachusetts by Municipality.svg
Warren:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90–100%
Deaton:     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 5, 2024. Democratic incumbent Senator Elizabeth Warren successfully ran for a third term, securing 59.6% of the vote. [1] Warren was challenged by Republican attorney John Deaton. Primary elections took place on September 3, 2024. [2]

Contents

This election marked the first time that Elizabeth Warren had lost Bristol County while running for the office. Warren underperformed Kamala Harris, who concurrently won by 25 points in the 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts, and every county in the state.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Elizabeth Warren (D)$18,486,081$24,658,143$4,920,625
Source: Federal Election Commission [25]

Results

Democratic primary results [26]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) 562,709 98.58%
Write-in 8,0781.42%
Total votes570,787 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • John Deaton, attorney [27]

Eliminated in primary

  • Robert Antonellis, nutrition software company owner [28] and self-professed conspiracy theorist [29]
  • Ian Cain, president of the Quincy City Council [30]

Declined

Endorsements

Ian Cain

U.S. senators

Governors

Local Officials

John Deaton

Executive Branch officials

Statewide officials

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Robert Antonellis (R)$43,352 [a] $37,250$9,667
Ian Cain (R)$361,115$312,722$48,393
John Deaton (R)$1,690,411 [b] $715,642$974,769
Source: Federal Election Commission [25]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Robert
Antonellis		Ian
Cain		John
Deaton		OtherUndecided
YouGov [38] [A] May 17–30, 2024292 (A)± 4.4%19%5%15%25% [d] 36%
Suffolk University [39] [B] April 16–20, 202499(LV)± 4.4%4%2%4%1% [e] 89%

Results

Results by municipality: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Deaton--90-100% Deaton--80-90% Deaton--70-80% Deaton--60-70% Deaton--50-60% Antonellis--50-60% Antonellis--40-50% Cain--40-50% No Data/Vote 2024 United States Senate Election Republican Primary in Massachusetts by Municipality.svg
Results by municipality:
  Deaton—90–100%
  Deaton—80–90%
  Deaton—70–80%
  Deaton—60–70%
  Deaton—50–60%
  Antonellis—50–60%
  Antonellis—40–50%
  Cain—40–50%
  No Data/Vote
Republican primary results [26]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Deaton 136,773 64.51%
Republican Robert Antonellis54,94025.91%
Republican Ian Cain19,3749.14%
Write-in 9240.44%
Total votes212,011 100.0%

Workers Party primary

Candidates

Withdrawn

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Deceased

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [43] Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [44] Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [45] Safe DNovember 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [46] Safe DJune 8, 2024
Elections Daily [47] Safe DMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [48] Solid DNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [49] Solid DAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket [50] Safe DOctober 23, 2024
538 [51] Solid DOctober 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

John Deaton (R)

Statewide officials

Notable Individuals

Newspapers

Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		John
Deaton (R)		Undecided
[f] 		Margin
538 [62] through November 2, 2024November 3, 202457.0%34.8%8.2%Warren +22.2%
RealClearPolitics [63] September 12 - October 26, 2024November 3, 202456.5%34.3%9.2%Warren +22.2%
270toWin [64] October 8 - November 3, 2024November 3, 202457.5%34.8%7.7%Warren +22.7%
TheHill/DDHQ [65] through November 2, 2024November 3, 202458.4%36.1%5.5%Warren +22.3%
Average57.4%35.0%7.6%Warren+22.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		John
Deaton (R)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire [66] October 29 – November 2, 2024744 (LV)± 3.6%60%37%–3%
MassINC Polling Group [67] October 29 – November 1, 2024582 (LV)± 4.9%55%33%8% [g] 4%
ActiVote [68] October 2–30, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%63%37%––
Emerson College [69] [C] October 24–26, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%56%36%1% [h] 7%
UMass Amherst/YouGov/WCVB [70] October 3–10, 2024700 (A)± 4.8%56%34%3% [i] 7%
Suffolk University [71] [D] October 2–6, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%59%35%–6%
Opinion Diagnostics (R) [72] [E] September 19–21, 2024638 (LV)–53%32%–15%
MassINC Polling Group [73] [F] September 12–18, 2024800 (LV)± 4.1%56%35%3% [j] 7%
University of New Hampshire [74] September 12–16, 2024564 (LV)± 4.1%58%32%7% [k] 3%
YouGov [75] [A] May 17–30, 2023700 (A)± 4.4%47%24%8% [l] 21%
Hypothetical polling

Elizabeth Warren vs. Robert Antonellis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Robert
Antonellis (R)		Other/Undecided
YouGov [75] [A] May 17–30, 2023700 (A)± 4.4%50%23%27%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Charlie Baker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Charlie
Baker (R)		Undecided
Fiscal Alliance Foundation [76] May 6–7, 2023750 (LV)± 3.6%34%49%17%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Ian Cain

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Ian
Cain (R)		Other/Undecided
YouGov [75] [A] May 17–30, 2023700 (A)± 4.4%48%24%28%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Jonathan Kraft

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Johnathan
Kraft (R)		Undecided
Suffolk University [77] February 2–5, 20231000 (LV)± 3.1%56%33%11%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Aaron Packard

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Aaron
Packard (R)		Other/Undecided
YouGov [75] [A] May 17–30, 2023700 (A)± 4.4%48%23%29%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Karyn Polito

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Karyn
Polito (R)		Undecided
Fiscal Alliance Foundation [78] July 21–22, 2023750 (LV)± 3.6%41%29%30%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts [79]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) 2,041,693 59.90% −0.14
Republican John Deaton1,365,44540.10%+3.93
Total votes3,407,138 100.0%
Democratic hold

Notes

  1. ↑ $24,296 of this total was self-funded by Antonellis
  2. ↑ $1,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Deaton
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ↑ Aaron Packard with 9%; "Other" with 16%
  5. ↑ Aaron Packard with 1%
  6. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. ↑ "Another candidate" with 3%, "Would not vote for Senate" with 3%, "Prefer not to say" with 2%
  8. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ↑ "Other" with 3%
  10. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%, "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%, "Prefer not to say" with 1%
  11. ↑ "Another candidate" with 7%
  12. ↑ "Would not vote" with 8%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll commissioned by the University of Massachusetts Amherst and WCVB-TV
  2. ↑ Poll commissioned by The Boston Globe
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by WHDH
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by Deaton's campaign
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by WBUR-FM and CommonWealth Beacon

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References

  1. ↑ "Massachusetts U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 15, 2024.
  2. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  3. ↑ Kamisar, Ben; Shabad, Rebecca; Vitali, Ali (January 20, 2023). "Democrats Kaine, Warren and Gillibrand are all running for re-election". NBC News . Retrieved February 22, 2023.
  4. ↑ Kashinsky, Lisa (February 9, 2023). "Rumor has it". Politico .
  5. 1 2 3 4 Kashinsky, Lisa (April 26, 2023). "N.H. Dems sort of back Biden". POLITICO. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  6. 1 2 Kashinsky, Lisa (October 14, 2022). "Pressley for president?". Politico. Retrieved October 14, 2022.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 Quinn, Melissa (March 27, 2023). "POLITICS: Elizabeth Warren announces Senate reelection bid". CBS News . Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  8. 1 2 "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Elizabeth Warren for Reelection". Giffords. April 25, 2024. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  9. ↑ Kashinsky, Lisa (April 24, 2023). "Healey's early flexes". Politico . Retrieved April 26, 2023.
  10. ↑ Chou, Lauren (April 26, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Elizabeth Warren for Reelection to the United States Senate". EMILYs List. Retrieved April 26, 2023.
  11. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  12. ↑ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  13. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  14. ↑ "Elizabeth Warren". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  15. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  16. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
  18. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  19. ↑ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund . Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  20. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  21. ↑ @BoldProgressive (March 27, 2023). "BIG news for your Monday morning: @ewarren is formally running for re-election! The fight for big, structural change continues. Pitch in to become a founding donor to her re-election campaign". Twitter . Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  22. ↑ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved April 29, 2024.
  23. ↑ "Endorsements". UFW. Retrieved February 6, 2024.
  24. ↑ Working Families Party (@WorkingFamilies) (March 28, 2023). "We're endorsing @ewarren in her re-election for U.S. Senate. We've won some big things for working people. But we have a lot more to do, and Elizabeth has proven she's able to take the battle against right-wing Republicans and corporate Democrats — and for working people — on". Twitter . Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  25. 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - Massachusetts". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  26. 1 2 "2024 Primary - U.S. Senate". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.
  27. ↑ Kashinsky, Lisa; Garrity, Kelly (February 20, 2024). "Crypto attorney launches Senate bid against Elizabeth Warren". Politico . Retrieved February 2, 2024.
  28. ↑ Brissette, Kristen (July 2023). "Senator Warren to Face Senate Race Competition". Barnstable Broadside. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
  29. ↑ Blandino, Peter. "John Deaton beats Ian Cain, Bob Antonellis in straw poll in lead-up to Senate primary". The Patriot Ledger. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
  30. ↑ Kashinsky, Lisa (April 24, 2024). "Ian Cain launches senate bid against Warren". Politico.com . Retrieved April 24, 2024.
  31. ↑ Kashinsky, Lisa; Gardner, Sophie; Garrity, Kelly (May 12, 2023). "Republicans search for a standard-bearer". POLITICO. Retrieved May 12, 2023.
  32. ↑ Wright, Turner (July 8, 2024). "Cynthia Lummis backs Ian Cain over crypto lawyer John Deaton for Senate". CoinTelegraph. Retrieved July 17, 2024.
  33. ↑ Micek, John (June 30, 2024). "Debates and defeats. A rough week of lessons for Dems". MassLive . Retrieved July 4, 2024. Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ian Cain notched the backing of former Gov. Jane Swift last week
  34. ↑ https://quincyquarry.com/quincy/2024/08/01/former-acting-governor-jane-swift-and-quincy-mayor-tom-koch-endorse-ian-cains-gop-senate-bid/#axzz8rcxGOdzQ
  35. 1 2 Micek, John (April 13, 2024). "Who is John Deaton, the long-shot Republican trying to unseat Mass. Sen. Elizabeth Warren?". MassLive . Retrieved July 4, 2024.
  36. 1 2 Kashinsky, Lisa; Goodman, Jasper; Garrity, Kelly (April 12, 2024). "Crypto executives put money behind longshot bid to oust Elizabeth Warren". Politico . Retrieved May 20, 2024. Deaton has also been endorsed by Mark Cuban, who has criticized the SEC's approach to crypto enforcement
  37. ↑ Massachusetts College Republicans [@macollegegop] (April 20, 2024). "🚨🚨 ENDORSEMENT ALERT 🚨🚨: MACR is proud to endorse @DeatonforSenate in his U.S. Senate Race against Washington Establishment darling Elizabeth Warren. We will do everything to help him retire Elizabeth Warren in November! Read our endorsement of Mr. Deaton below. #mapoli" (Tweet). Retrieved April 30, 2024– via Twitter.
  38. ↑ YouGov
  39. ↑ Suffolk University
  40. ↑ "Meet Elizabeth Warren's newest opponent for Senate, Socialist Brandon Griffin". The Republic . September 9, 2023.
  41. ↑ "Brandon James Griffin For US Senate". Brandon James Griffin For US Senate. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
  42. ↑ Evans, Jordan (September 18, 2023). "Two Massachusetts Libertarian Candidates Will Not Appear on the Ballot". Independent Political Report. Retrieved September 25, 2023.
  43. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  44. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  45. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  46. ↑ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  47. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  48. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  49. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  50. ↑ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  51. ↑ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  52. ↑ Garrity, Kevin (September 26, 2024). "Republican realignment". Politico . Retrieved October 2, 2024. Former Republican Gov. Bill Weld is backing GOP Senate hopeful John Deaton
  53. ↑ Terrett, Eleanor (October 21, 2024). "Elon Musk gives nod to John Deaton in Massachusetts Senate race against Elizabeth Warren". Fox Business . Archived from the original on October 24, 2024. Retrieved October 24, 2024. Tesla CEO and X owner, Elon Musk, who is currently worth a cool $195 billion, took to his own social media platform on Monday morning to show his support for Deaton
  54. ↑ "John Deaton Endorsed by Major Business Leaders Elon Musk and Mark Cuban - John Deaton for US Senate". johndeatonforsenate.com. October 21, 2024. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  55. ↑ Odunayo, Solomon (October 23, 2024). "First Time Elon Musk and Mark Cuban Will Agree On Two Things Related to Ripple and XRP". Times Tabloid. Archived from the original on October 24, 2024. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  56. ↑ Everhart, Bill (July 31, 2024). "Do Republican Senate hopefuls signal new era for Mass. GOP?". The Berkshire Eagle. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  57. ↑ Andersen, Derek (July 16, 2024). "Ripple backs Deaton with $1M donation in senate race against Warren". Coin Telegraph. Archived from the original on October 8, 2024.
  58. ↑ Terrett, Eleanor (October 21, 2024). "Elon Musk gives nod to John Deaton in Massachusetts Senate race against Elizabeth Warren". Fox Business . Archived from the original on October 24, 2024. Retrieved October 24, 2024. He's racked up bipartisan support from the likes of billionaire entrepreneurs like Mark Cuban, a Democrat, as well as Trump-supporting Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, founders of the crypto exchange Gemini. He's also been endorsed by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen (also a Democrat), and founder of the Cardano blockchain network, Charles Hoskinson.
  59. ↑ Boston Herald editorial staff (October 23, 2024). "Editorial: John Deaton for U.S. Senate". Boston Herald . Archived from the original on October 24, 2024. Retrieved October 28, 2024. Elizabeth Warren has to go. We're sure Harvard University would welcome the liberal senator back into its out-of-touch cocoon.The GOP's John Deaton, a former military prosecutor, is a great replacement for her in Washington. He will not hide from the difficult issues this state must deal with today — especially the migrant crisis. That alone would bring some hope of stability back to Boston and beyond.
  60. ↑ Log Cabin Republicans (October 24, 2024). "Log Cabin Republicans Proudly Endorses John Deaton For U.S. Senate, MA" . Retrieved October 28, 2024. Log Cabin Republicans is thrilled to endorse John Deaton based on his proven track record of speaking up for fellow Republicans who believe equality is a worthy and conservative cause for our party. With his leadership in the U.S. Senate, Republicans are poised to carry the torch on passing critical equality legislation in the next Congress. We wholeheartedly support his candidacy
  61. ↑ https://johndeatonforsenate.com/john-deaton-endorsed-by-new-england-police-benevolent-association/
  62. ↑ 538
  63. ↑ RealClearPolitics
  64. ↑ 270toWin
  65. ↑ TheHill/DDHQ
  66. ↑ University of New Hampshire
  67. ↑ MassINC Polling Group
  68. ↑ ActiVote
  69. ↑ Emerson College
  70. ↑ UMass Amherst/YouGov/WCVB
  71. ↑ Suffolk University
  72. ↑ Opinion Diagnostics (R)
  73. ↑ MassINC Polling Group
  74. ↑ University of New Hampshire
  75. 1 2 3 4 YouGov
  76. ↑ Fiscal Alliance Foundation
  77. ↑ Suffolk University
  78. ↑ Fiscal Alliance Foundation
  79. ↑ "Massachusetts U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times . November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 11, 2024.

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