2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election

←  2018 November 8, 2022 2026  →
Turnout	38.61% [1] 15.85 pp
Nominee Bill Lee Jason Martin Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,129,390 572,818 Percentage 64.91% 32.92%
County results Congressional district results State Senate district results State House district results Precinct results Lee:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Martin:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%      No data
Governor before election Bill Lee Republican Elected Governor Bill Lee Republican

The 2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Tennessee, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Bill Lee was re-elected to a second term with 64.9% of the vote, defeating his Democratic challenger Jason Martin. Lee improved on his performance from 2018.

The primary elections took place on August 4, 2022, with Lee and Martin winning their respective parties' nominations. ^{[2] [3]}

During the general election, Lee flipped reliably Democratic Haywood County, home to Brownsville. It is one of only two remaining counties in Tennessee, along with Shelby County, with a majority African-American population. Haywood County had not voted Republican on a presidential level since 1972. Martin won only Shelby and Davidson counties. This was the first time in state history that Davidson County did not vote for the winner in a gubernatorial re-election since Tennessee began allowing governors to serve for two consecutive terms.

Voter turnout for the 2022 midterm elections in Tennessee was the lowest it had been in nearly a decade, with only 38.6% of Tennessee's registered voters turning out. This was far below the 2020 presidential election in Tennessee, which saw a turnout of 69.3%. ^{[4] [5]} The last time turnout was this low in Tennessee was in the 2014 midterm elections. Tennessee's neighboring state Alabama saw a significant drop in voter turnout as well.

Bill Lee was sworn in for his second term on January 21, 2023.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Bill Lee, incumbent governor ^{[6] [7]}

Disqualified

• Curtis Carney, business owner ^{[8] [7]}
• Tyler Hagerman ^[7]
• Patricia Morrison ^[7]

Declined

• Andy Ogles, mayor of Maury County (successfully ran for U.S. House) ^[9]

Endorsements

Bill Lee

U.S. executive branch officials

• Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) ^[10]
• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) ^[11]

Results

Republican primary results ^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Bill Lee (incumbent)	494,362	100.00%
Total votes			494,362	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jason Martin, pulmonologist and critical care specialist at Sumner Regional Medical Center and former Meharry Medical College professor ^{[13] [14]}

Eliminated in primary

• Carnita Atwater, leader of New Chicago Community Development Corporation in Northern Memphis ^[15]
• J. B. Smiley Jr., Memphis city councilor ^[16]

Withdrew

• Casey Nicholson, minister ^{[17] [18]}

Declined

• Gloria Johnson, state representative ^[19] (endorsed Jason Martin) ^[20]

Endorsements

J. B. Smiley Jr.

U.S. representatives

• Steve Cohen, U.S. representative for Tennessee's 9th congressional district (2007–present) ^[21]

Local officials

• Lee Harris, mayor of Shelby County (2018–present) and former Minority Leader of the Tennessee Senate from the 29th district (2015–2018) ^[22]
• W. W. Herenton, former mayor of Memphis (1992–2009) ^[23]

Results

Results by county:

  Martin

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

  Smiley

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

  Atwater

•   30–40%

Democratic primary results ^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jason Martin	101,552	39.39%
	Democratic	J.B. Smiley Jr.	100,062	38.81%
	Democratic	Carnita Atwater	56,227	21.81%
Total votes			257,841	100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

• Constance Every, nonprofit founder ^[25]
• John Gentry, accountant ^[25]
• Basil Marceaux, businessman and perennial candidate ^[25]
• Alfred O'Neil ^[25]
• Deborah Rouse, candidate for president of the United States in 2020 ^[25]
• Michael Scantland, sales manager ^[25]
• Rick Tyler, perennial candidate (also ran for U.S. House) ^[25]
• Charles Van Morgan, small business owner ^[25]

Disqualified

• Lemichael DaShaun-Wilson ^[25]
• Hosie Holomon III ^[25]
• Wendell Jackson ^[25]
• Jake Johns ^[25]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [26]	Solid R	March 4, 2022
Inside Elections [27]	Solid R	July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [28]	Safe R	June 29, 2022
Politico [29]	Solid R	April 1, 2022
RCP [30]	Safe R	January 10, 2022
Fox News [31]	Solid R	May 12, 2022
538 [32]	Solid R	August 4, 2022
Elections Daily [33]	Safe R	November 7, 2022

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 5, 2022
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Bill Lee (R)	$3,516,828	$3,316,034	$375,465
Jason Martin (D)	$187,424	$495,649	$160,736
Source: Tennessee Registry of Election Finance [34]

Post-primary endorsements

Bill Lee (R)

Organizations

• National Federation of Independent Business ^[35]
• National Right to Life ^[36]
• NRA Political Victory Fund ^{[37] [38]}

Jason Martin (D)

Labor unions

• AFL–CIO ^[39]
• United Mine Workers ^[40]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Bill Lee (R)	Jason Martin (D)	Other	Undecided
RABA Research [41]	July 21–31, 2022	549 (LV)	± 4.2%	52%	28%	6%	14%

Hypothetical polling

Bill Lee vs. generic opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Bill Lee (R)	Generic Opponent	Undecided
Vanderbilt University [42]	April 26 – May 14, 2022	1,000 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	39%	12%

Results

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

Trend by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Republican

    Hold

    Gain from Democratic

  ±%

  	Republican	Bill Lee (incumbent)	1,129,390	64.91%	+5.55
  	Democratic	Jason Martin	572,818	32.92%	−5.63
  	Independent	John Gentry	15,395	0.89%	N/A
  	Independent	Constance Every	10,277	0.59%	N/A
  	Independent	Deborah Rouse	3,772	0.22%	N/A
  	Independent	Rick Tyler	2,380	0.14%	N/A
  	Independent	Charles Van Morgan	1,862	0.11%	N/A
  	Independent	Basil Marceaux	1,568	0.09%	N/A
  	Independent	Alfred O'Neil	1,216	0.07%	N/A
  	Independent	Michael Scantland	815	0.05%	N/A
  	Write-In	Lemichael D. Wilson	386	0.02%	N/A
  	Write-In	Charles Carney	2	0.00%	N/A
  	Write-In	Stephen C. Maxwell	1	0.00%	N/A
  	Write-In	Kameron Parker Scott	0	0.00%	N/A
  Total votes			1,739,882	100.00%
  Turnout			1,756,397	38.61%	−15.85%
  Registered electors			4,549,183
  	Republican hold

  By county

  By county

  County [44] Bill Lee Republican Jason Martin Democratic Other votes Total votes  % #  % #  % # Anderson 65.80% 14,003 32.11% 6,832 2.09% 445 21,280 Bedford 79.30% 8,401 18.27% 1,936 2.43% 257 10,594 Benton 79.14% 3,247 18.43% 756 2.43% 100 4,103 Bledsoe 86.06% 2,933 12.27% 418 1.67% 57 3,408 Blount 74.41% 29,470 23.52% 9,316 2.07% 820 39,606 Bradley 81.97% 20,655 16.26% 4,096 1.77% 447 25,198 Campbell 81.96% 6,118 15.85% 1,197 2.19% 165 7,550 Cannon 80.74% 3,082 17.50% 668 1.76% 67 3,817 Carroll 80.23% 5,733 17.74% 1,268 2.03% 145 7,146 Carter 80.10% 11,602 17.78% 2,575 2.12% 307 14,484 Cheatham 71.27% 8,309 26.92% 3,138 1.81% 211 11,658 Chester 83.54% 3,756 13.83% 622 2.62% 118 4,496 Claiborne 83.99% 5,652 14.18% 954 1.83% 123 6,729 Clay 80.03% 1,451 16.93% 307 3.04% 55 1,813 Cocke 81.17% 6,618 15.95% 1,300 2.88% 235 8,153 Coffee 77.13% 10,529 20.59% 2,811 2.28% 311 13,651 Crockett 82.30% 2,734 16.23% 539 1.48% 49 3,322 Cumberland 82.38% 17,864 16.16% 3,505 1.46% 315 21,684 Davidson 34.24% 60,900 63.38% 112,708 2.38% 4,229 177,837 Decatur 80.65% 2,713 17.72% 596 1.63% 55 3,364 DeKalb 80.07% 4,118 17.71% 911 2.22% 114 5,143 Dickson 73.73% 9,970 24.07% 3,255 2.20% 297 13,522 Dyer 80.61% 6,791 16.81% 1,416 2.58% 217 8,424 Fayette 75.93% 10,868 22.44% 3,212 1.63% 234 14,314 Fentress 86.69% 4,559 11.12% 585 2.19% 115 5,259 Franklin 75.05% 8,643 22.93% 2,641 2.02% 232 11,516 Gibson 76.61% 9,640 21.21% 2,669 2.18% 274 12,583 Giles 76.23% 5,832 20.68% 1,582 3.09% 237 7,651 Grainger 85.28% 4,588 13.12% 706 1.60% 86 5,380 Greene 79.26% 13,574 17.83% 3,054 2.91% 498 16,951 Grundy 80.82% 2,735 15.90% 538 3.28% 111 3,384 Hamblen 78.86% 10,335 19.01% 2,492 2.13% 279 13,126 Hamilton 60.02% 60,647 38.46% 38,862 1.52% 1,542 101,051 Hancock 84.60% 1,110 12.58% 165 2.82% 37 1,312 Hardeman 62.41% 3,486 35.50% 1,983 2.09% 117 5,586 Hardin 85.93% 5,606 12.45% 812 1.62% 106 6,524 Hawkins 82.42% 11,669 15.56% 2,203 2.02% 286 14,158 Haywood 51.14% 2,011 47.30% 1,860 1.56% 61 3,932 Henderson 85.61% 5,551 12.68% 822 1.71% 111 6,484 Henry 78.52% 6,674 18.87% 1,604 2.61% 222 8,500 Hickman 78.76% 4,577 19.41% 1,128 1.83% 106 5,811 Houston 74.25% 1,837 23.00% 569 2.75% 68 2,474 Humphreys 74.63% 3,344 22.85% 1,024 2.52% 113 4,481 Jackson 75.80% 2,415 19.99% 637 4.21% 134 3,186 Jefferson 81.52% 10,806 15.90% 2,107 2.58% 342 13,255 Johnson 85.05% 4,415 13.25% 688 1.70% 88 5,191 Knox 59.95% 76,880 38.32% 49,140 1.73% 2,222 128,242 Lake 78.69% 912 17.69% 205 3.62% 42 1,159 Lauderdale 69.81% 3,346 27.56% 1,321 2.63% 126 4,793 Lawrence 81.96% 8,276 15.34% 1,549 2.70% 272 10,097 Lewis 80.09% 2,723 18.03% 613 1.88% 64 3,400 Lincoln 81.89% 7,452 15.45% 1,406 2.66% 242 9,100 Loudon 78.15% 15,285 19.43% 3,801 2.42% 473 19,559 Macon 85.13% 4,140 12.03% 585 2.84% 138 4,863 Madison 63.77% 15,357 34.24% 8,246 1.99% 479 24,082 Marion 77.23% 5,947 20.91% 1,610 1.86% 143 7,700 Marshall 75.99% 6,734 21.00% 1,861 3.01% 267 8,862 Maury 72.26% 22,198 25.75% 7,910 1.99% 610 30,718 McMinn 80.35% 10,371 14.39% 1,858 5.26% 679 12,908 McNairy 83.06% 5,864 14.67% 1,036 2.27% 160 7,060 Meigs 82.21% 2,703 14.93% 491 2.86% 94 3,288 Monroe 82.93% 9,830 14.75% 1,748 2.23% 275 11,853 Montgomery 60.22% 24,813 36.38% 14,988 3.40% 1,400 41,201 Moore 83.33% 1,725 14.59% 302 2.08% 43 2,070 Morgan 83.97% 3,844 13.63% 624 2.40% 110 4,578 Obion 82.63% 6,418 15.10% 1,173 2.27% 176 7,767 Overton 78.45% 4,805 18.73% 1,147 2.82% 173 6,125 Perry 80.22% 1,549 17.56% 339 2.22% 43 1,931 Pickett 80.06% 1,542 16.15% 311 3.79% 73 1,929 Polk 83.32% 4,000 14.83% 712 1.85% 89 4,801 Putnam 72.43% 14,217 24.84% 4,875 2.73% 536 19,628 Rhea 85.11% 6,551 13.42% 1,033 1.47% 113 7,697 Roane 75.23% 11,871 21.15% 3,337 3.62% 572 15,780 Robertson 75.97% 14,066 21.86% 4,048 2.17% 400 18,514 Rutherford 62.00% 46,575 35.87% 26,948 2.13% 1,604 75,127 Scott 87.56% 3,394 10.19% 395 2.25% 87 3,876 Sequatchie 83.92% 3,643 13.87% 602 2.21% 96 4,341 Sevier 80.35% 18,314 16.75% 3,818 2.90% 660 22,792 Shelby 43.20% 86,384 54.51% 108,995 2.29% 4,583 199,962 Smith 79.52% 4,205 17.53% 927 2.95% 156 5,288 Stewart 79.55% 3,167 17.76% 707 2.69% 107 3,981 Sullivan 77.90% 32,897 20.78% 8,777 1.32% 556 42,230 Sumner 71.57% 37,466 26.12% 13,672 2.31% 1,209 52,347 Tipton 76.69% 11,487 20.58% 3,083 2.73% 409 14,979 Trousdale 77.39% 1,660 20.93% 449 1.68% 36 2,145 Unicoi 80.66% 4,238 17.32% 910 2.02% 106 5,254 Union 82.90% 3,456 14.99% 625 2.11% 88 4,169 Van Buren 82.35% 1,563 14.70% 279 2.95% 56 1,898 Warren 75.29% 6,668 22.16% 1,963 2.55% 226 8,857 Washington 69.42% 24,330 28.66% 10,046 1.92% 671 35,047 Wayne 86.59% 3,094 11.14% 398 2.27% 81 3,573 Weakley 78.94% 6,417 18.32% 1,489 2.74% 223 8,129 White 82.41% 5,744 15.42% 1,075 2.17% 151 6,970 Williamson 68.06% 58,132 30.57% 26,116 1.37% 1,169 85,417 Wilson 70.69% 31,496 27.40% 12,208 1.91% 848 44,552 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Haywood (largest city: Brownsville)

By congressional district

Lee won eight of nine congressional districts. ^[45]

District	Lee	Martin	Representative
1st	78.0%	19.9%	Diana Harshbarger
2nd	66.8%	31.3%	Tim Burchett
3rd	68.8%	29.1%	Chuck Fleischmann
4th	72.1%	25.7%	Scott DesJarlais
5th	58.6%	39.6%	Jim Cooper (117th Congress)
			Andy Ogles (118th Congress)
6th	65.8%	31.9%	John W. Rose
7th	59.6%	37.9%	Mark E. Green
8th	73.2%	25.0%	David Kustoff
9th	32.6%	64.7%	Steve Cohen

See also

• Elections in Tennessee
• Political party strength in Tennessee
• Tennessee Democratic Party
• Tennessee Republican Party
• Government of Tennessee
• 2022 Tennessee elections
• 2022 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

References

1. "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2022". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
2. "2022 Midterm Election Events Calendar". www.cnn.com. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
3. "Doctor critical of lax COVID rules wins Tenn. Dem gov race". AP NEWS. August 5, 2022. Retrieved August 5, 2022.
4. McCullough, Erin (November 11, 2022). "Less than 40% of registered voters in Tennessee turned out for the 2022 midterms". WKRN News 2. Retrieved November 11, 2022.
5. Gonzales, Tony (November 10, 2022). "Tennessee voter turnout far below 2018 showing". 90.3 WPLM News. Retrieved December 30, 2022.
6. Ebert, Joel. "'I love this job': Bill Lee says he'll seek a second term as Tennessee governor". The Tennessean. The USA Today Network. Retrieved September 7, 2020.
7. "Tennessee Petitions". TNSOS. Retrieved April 8, 2022.
8. "New PAC Targets Gov. Lee's Re-Election Bid". Across Tennessee, TN Patch. April 29, 2021. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
9. Rau, Nate (March 23, 2022). "Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles enters District 5 race". Axios . Archived from the original on March 28, 2022. Retrieved March 28, 2022.
10. "Nikki Haley endorses Republican Governor". ABC News. Retrieved July 23, 2021.
11. Murray, Stephanie (August 16, 2021). "Redistricting looms in Texas". Politico . Archived from the original on August 16, 2021. Retrieved August 30, 2021.
12. "August 4, 2022 Republican Primary Governor" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
13. "Doctor eyes run for governor". Nashville Post. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
14. "Sumner County doctor Jason Martin announces gubernatorial campaign | News | wsmv.com". www.wsmv.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
15. "First Democratic Candidate for Governor". Tri-State Defender. April 8, 2021. Retrieved July 29, 2021.
16. "Memphis City Councilman JB Smiley Jr. Enters Democratic Race for Tennessee Governor". The Commercial Appeal. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
17. "Democrats running for governor make it official". Nashville Post. Retrieved August 26, 2021.
18. ""I'm suspending my campaign for governor."". Facebook. Retrieved December 23, 2021.
19. "New PAC targets Lee's re-election bid". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
20. "I'm so excited y'all, @jasonbmartin is exactly the leadership TN families need now!". Twitter. Retrieved August 24, 2021.
21. "Memphis congressman endorses in '22 gubernatorial primary". Nashville Post. October 13, 2021. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
22. "Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris endorses Smiley for governor". May 25, 2022. Retrieved May 25, 2022.
23. "20-Plus Tennessee Leaders Announce Support for JB Smiley, Jr. for Governor". The Tennessee Tribune . October 21, 2021. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
24. "August 4, 2022 Democratic Primary Governor" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
25. "Petition Information". Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 7, 2022.
26. "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
27. "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved February 19, 2021.
28. "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
29. "Tennessee Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
30. "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
31. "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
32. "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Archived from the original on June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
33. Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
34. "Search Reports". Tennessee Registry of Election Finance.
35. "NFIB Tennessee PAC Endorses Bill Lee for Second Term as Governor". National Federation of Independent Business . September 15, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
36. "Tennessee Endorsements". National Right to Life . Retrieved November 9, 2022.
37. "Tennessee Grades & Endorsements". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
38. "Bill Lee's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
39. "General Election Endorsements" . Retrieved October 17, 2022.
40. "Tennessee - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
41. RABA Research
42. Vanderbilt University
43. State of Tennessee General Election Results Governor, November 8, 2022, Results By Office (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
44. "2022 Gubernatorial Results by County" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 18, 2023.
45. https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::9185d1ce-1556-46ab-9628-6749769d0262

External links

Official campaign websites

• Bill Lee (R) for Governor
• Bill Marceaux (I) for Governor
• Jason Martin (D) for Governor