The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections, the winners of which will serve six-year terms in the United States Congress from January 3, 2023, to January 3, 2029 (although through special elections, some senators may serve less). Senators are divided into three groups, or classes, whose terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every two years. Class 3 senators were last elected in 2016, and will be up for election again in 2022.
All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 14 Democrats and 20 Republicans. If a vacancy occurs, the corresponding state might require a special election to take place during the 117th Congress, possibly concurrently with the other 2022 Senate elections.
Each block represents one of the one hundred seats in the U.S. Senate. "D#" is a Democratic senator, "I#" is an Independent senator, and "R#" is a Republican senator. They are arranged so the parties are separated and a majority is clear by crossing the middle.
Before the elections
Each block indicates an incumbent senator's actions going into the election.
Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent was running for reelection) and the other candidates, and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party had in winning that seat. Most election predictors used:
"tossup": no advantage
"tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
"lean": slight advantage
"likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
Potentially competitive Republican-held seats up for election in 2022 include Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, the GOP is expected to have a significant edge in Florida and Ohio due to rightward shifts in those states combined with strong incumbent senators. Iowa could also become competitive if incumbent United States SenatorChuck Grassley decides to retire (he would be 89 if he decided to run). Potentially competitive Democratic-held seats up for election in 2022 include Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire.[4][5] Although, the Democrats have an advantage in Colorado & New Hampshire (assuming their popular incumbent governor doesn't run) similar to the Republican advantages in Florida and Ohio; 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden overperformed on the 2016 Democratic margin by respectively 8.59% in Colorado & 6.98% in New Hampshire.
Six-term senator and 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain was re-elected to this seat in 2016. However, he died on August 25, 2018, and former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl was appointed to replace him. Kyl resigned at the end of 2018 and was succeeded by outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally, who lost the 2020 special election to complete the term.
Two-term Republican John Boozman was re-elected in 2016. Boozman has not publicly announced plans to run for a third term, but has filed a formal Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission.[34] Dan Whitfield, who attempted to run as an independent for Arkansas's other U.S. Senate seat in 2020 but failed to meet the ballot access requirements,[35] is running as a Democrat.[36]
Prior to Isakson's retirement and the Democratic Party's victory in the subsequent special election to replace him, former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed was seen as a potential candidate to challenge him in 2022.[48]
One-term Democrat Brian Schatz was appointed to the Senate in 2012 following the death of incumbent Daniel Inouye. He won a special election to finish Inouye's term in 2014 and won his first full term in 2016.
You'll have to ask me a year and a half from now. Now if you'd asked me that six years ago, I'd have said I'm running for re-election. But now that I'm 86, I better make sure I can see myself to be 95 years old… Now the one thing I want to make sure of is, that I don't become a Senator Byrd, where, the last two years on office, I have to have a nurse with me. Or when [Strom] Thurmond left office at 100 years and three months, but the last couple of years, he needed a lot of help.
He also said that he would decide whether to run again "eight months to a year before the 2022 election".[49]
Two-term Republican Rob Portman was re-elected in 2016. Portman has begun fundraising, but has not declared his candidacy.[68] IT executive Mark Pukita is running in the Republican primary with the intention of unseating Portman.[24]
On January 8, 2021, Lieutenant GovernorJohn Fetterman filed an exploratory committee with the FEC.[77] He also tweeted a link to his campaign to solicit donations for a potential run.[78]
Two-term Republican Ron Johnson was re-elected in 2016. Johnson had pledged to retire in 2022,[84] but in 2019, he said he did not know if he would in fact seek a third term or not and would not rule anything out.[30]
Kenosha County Sheriff David Beth (R) has expressed an interest in running for the Senate.[85] Former Governor Scott Walker has said that he will not run.[86]
On June 26, 2020, the United States House of Representatives voted 232–180 to grant statehood to the District of Columbia,[87] but the bill, H.R. 51, failed in the Senate when the 116th Congress ended. On January 3, 2021, the District's delegate, Eleanor Holmes Norton, reintroduced the bill at the start of the 117th Congress with a record 202 co-sponsors.[88] As the Democratic Party retained its control of the House and narrowly regained that of the Senate after the 2020 elections, it is possible that the 117th Congress (2021-2023) will grant statehood to the District of Columbia. This would add two seats to the Senate, both of which would probably be filled in special elections during the 2022 election cycle. The addition of these two seats, extremely likely to be won by Democrats,[89] would have a significant effect on the nationwide partisan battle for control of the Senate.
In addition, a referendum on Puerto Rico's status was held on November 3, 2020. A majority (52.52%) of voters chose statehood.[90] It is also plausible that the 117th Congress will grant statehood to Puerto Rico. The 2020 platforms of both the Democratic[91] and Republican parties[92] (identical to the 2016 Republican Party platform as the party's National Committee readopted it by a resolution on August 22, 2020) express support for Puerto Rico's right to determine the future of its status. Both seats would likely be filled also in special elections during the 2022 election cycle. Unlike the District of Columbia, the partisan lean of Puerto Rico is somewhat unclear. While Latino Americans of Puerto Rican descent tend to vote for Democrats, many argue that Puerto Rico's heavily Catholic population[93] will result in Puerto Rico agreeing with the Republican Party on many social issues like abortion, religion in schools, and same-sex marriage.[94]
Notes
↑ Democrats take control of the Senate since Democratic Vice President-elect Kamala Harris has the ability to break ties upon her inauguration.
1 2 The two independent senators, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, have caucused with the Democratic Party since joining the Senate.
↑ The last elections for this group of senators were in 2016, except for those elected in a special election or who were appointed after the resignation or passing of a sitting senator, as noted.
↑ Republican John McCain won with 53.7% of the vote in 2016 but died on August 25, 2018.
↑ Democrat Kamala Harris won in 2016 with 61.6% of the vote but resign to become vice president.
↑ Republican Johnny Isakson won with 54.8% of the vote in 2016 but resigned on December 31, 2019.
↑ Democratic total includes 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats
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↑ Kondik, Kyle (October 5, 2017). "The Republican Senate Edge". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on April 13, 2018. Retrieved April 11, 2018.
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