| |||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 62.6% 2.29pp [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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| |||||||||||||||||
Hobbs: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Lake: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Arizona |
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The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election occurred on November 8, 2022, to elect the next governor of Arizona, concurrently with other federal and state elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey was term-limited and ineligible to run for a third consecutive term. Democratic Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican former television journalist Kari Lake. [2]
Primaries were held on August 2 for both parties, with Lake winning the Republican nomination and Hobbs winning the Democratic nomination, making this the first gubernatorial election in Arizona history in which both major party candidates for governor were women. Hobbs became the fifth female governor of Arizona, with Arizona setting a record for the most female governors in American history. [3] [4] With the concurrent passage of Proposition 131, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona without a lieutenant governor on the ticket. [5]
Going into the election, most polling had Lake leading and analysts generally considered the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican. Nonetheless, Hobbs won with 50.32% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat elected governor of Arizona since Janet Napolitano in 2006. This was the first gubernatorial election in the state since 2002 in which the margin of victory was less than 10 percent. Lake refused to concede and filed a post-election lawsuit in an attempt to overturn the results. Most of her lawsuit was rejected by all three levels of Arizona's state courts, with the remaining part dismissed at trial in May 2023. [10] The race was riddled with voting machine issues, but did not prove to show any evidence of election fraud. [11]
This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. With a margin of 0.67%, it was the closest election in the state since the 1990–91 gubernatorial election and of the 2022 gubernatorial election cycle. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Hobbs won independent voters by 7 percentage points, which contributed to Lake's defeat. [12] [13]
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Kari Lake | Karrin Taylor Robson | Undecided [a] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics [40] | July 27 – August 1, 2022 | August 2, 2022 | 47.8% | 38.5% | 13.7% | Lake +9.3 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Steve Gaynor | Kari Lake | Karrin Taylor Robson | Matt Salmon | Kimberly Yee | Other | Undecided | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) [41] | July 30 – August 1, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 2.9% | – | 49% | 38% | 3% | – | 4% [c] | 6% | ||||||||
Emerson College [42] | July 28–30, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | – | 46% | 47% | – | – | 3% [d] | 4% | ||||||||
Rasmussen Reports [43] | July 27–28, 2022 | 710 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 43% | 34% | – | – | 12% [e] | 11% | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [44] | July 27, 2022 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 51% | 33% | 2% | – | 2% [f] | 12% | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) [45] | July 25–27, 2022 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.9% | – | 48% | 39% | 2% | – | 4% [g] | 7% | ||||||||
Alloy Analytics (R) [46] | July 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 45% | 35% | 2% | – | 2% [f] | 15% | ||||||||
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [47] [A] | July 22–24, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | 43% | 43% | – | – | – | 14% | ||||||||
Data Orbital (R) [48] | July 18–20, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 44% | 32% | 5% | – | 4% [c] | 15% | ||||||||
Cygnal (R) [49] | July 12–13, 2022 | 419 (LV) | ± 4.8% | – | 45% | 34% | 3% | – | 4% [c] | 14% | ||||||||
Data Orbital (R) [48] | July 5–7, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 39% | 35% | 2% | – | 6% [h] | 19% | ||||||||
HighGround Public Affairs (R) [50] | July 2–7, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | 39% | 35% | – | – | 4% | 21% | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [51] | June 30 – July 2, 2022 | 515 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 39% | 31% | 6% | – | 3% [f] | 21% | ||||||||
– | 40% | 35% | – | – | 5% [h] | 21% | ||||||||||||
Salmon withdraws from the race and endorses Robson | ||||||||||||||||||
Data Orbital (R) [48] | June 24–26, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 33% | 24% | 7% | – | 4% [c] | 33% | ||||||||
Moore Information Group (R) [52] [B] | June 22–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | – | 37% | 38% | – | – | 11% | 14% | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) [53] | June 14–16, 2022 | 1,068 (LV) | ± 2.9% | – | 39% | 27% | 15% | – | 3% [d] | 17% | ||||||||
Data Orbital (R) [54] | June 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 27% | 23% | 12% | – | 4% [i] | 31% | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [55] | May 9–16, 2022 | 281 (LV) | ± 5.9% | – | 23% | 21% | 14% | – | 4% | 38% | ||||||||
Cygnal (R) [56] [C] | April 28–30, 2022 | – (LV) | – | – | 47% | 22% | 7% | – | 5% [j] | 19% | ||||||||
Gaynor withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) [57] | April 25–28, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 6% | 38% | 27% | 11% | – | 4% [c] | 14% | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [58] | April 4–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 3% | 29% | 22% | 11% | – | – | 36% | ||||||||
Data Orbital (R) [59] | April 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 7% | 35% | 22% | 12% | – | – | 24% | ||||||||
HighGround Public Affairs (R) [60] | March 26–27, 2022 | 264 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 3% | 30% | 10% | 5% | – | 6% | 46% | ||||||||
Alloy Analytics (R) [61] | March 9–12, 2022 | 433 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 4% | 37% | 15% | 9% | – | – | 34% | ||||||||
Data Orbital (R) [62] | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 4% | 43% | 13% | 15% | – | – | 26% | ||||||||
Data Orbital (R) [63] | February 11–13, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 8% | 37% | 9% | 13% | – | – | 34% | ||||||||
Yee withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [64] | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 5% | 21% | 6% | 17% | 5% | 1% [k] | 46% | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [65] | November 1–8, 2021 | 252 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 2% | 28% | 1% | 11% | 6% | 1% [k] | 51% | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [66] | September 7–12, 2021 | 311 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 5% | 25% | 1% | 9% | 6% | 2% [l] | 53% | ||||||||
HighGround Public Affairs (R) [67] | May 3–5, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | 10% | 0% | 8% | 4% | 9% [m] | 66% |
Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Matt Salmon
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Karrin Taylor Robson | Matt Salmon | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Intelligence (R) [68] [D] | May 12–13, 2021 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 10% | 42% | 48% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kari Lake | 398,860 | 47.97% | |
Republican | Karrin Taylor Robson | 358,662 | 43.13% | |
Republican | Matt Salmon (withdrawn) | 30,704 | 3.69% | |
Republican | Scott Neely | 25,876 | 3.11% | |
Republican | Paola Tulliani-Zen | 17,281 | 2.08% | |
Write-in | 105 | 0.01% | ||
Total votes | 831,508 | 100.0% |
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Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs | Aaron Lieberman | Marco López Jr. | Other | Undecided | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lieberman suspends his campaign | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [83] | May 9–16, 2022 | 261 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 43% | 9% | 8% | – | 40% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GQR Research (D) [84] | May 9–15, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 10% | 20% | 2% | 19% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HighGround Public Affairs (R) [60] | March 26–27, 2022 | 234 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 27% | 1% | 9% | 3% | 57% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [64] | January 11–13, 2022 | 274 (RV) | ± 5.9% | 46% | 5% | 9% | – | 39% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
– | 23% | 27% | – | 50% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [65] | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | 42% | 6% | 8% | – | 44% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [66] | September 7–12, 2021 | 283 (RV) | ± 5.8% | 40% | 8% | 10% | – | 42% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Katie Hobbs | 431,059 | 72.32% | |
Democratic | Marco A. López Jr. | 136,090 | 22.83% | |
Democratic | Aaron Lieberman (withdrawn) | 28,878 | 4.85% | |
Total votes | 596,027 | 100.0% |
Write-in candidate Barry Hess was unopposed in the Libertarian primary, but failed to secure the minimum number of votes to receive the nomination.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Barry Hess (write-in) | 550 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 550 | 100.0% |
Lake was criticized for her denial of Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. She had made her closeness to former president Donald Trump central to her campaign. [87] [88] Hobbs refused to debate Lake, which became a highly discussed issue of the campaign, resulting in criticism from Republicans. [89] On October 16, 2022, Lake twice refused to say that she would accept the result if she did not win the election: "I'm going to win the election, and I will accept that result." [90]
According to Politico , the race was considered a toss-up. [91] Lake called both the primaries and current round of elections "incompetent" and stated that "honest elections are needed" and that "the system we have right now does not work". [92]
Katie Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake, though one debate-like forum was held. [93]
No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Participants | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
Kari Lake | Katie Hobbs | |||||
1 | September 7, 2022 | Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry | Danny Seiden | [94] | P | P |
2 | October 23, 2022 | Clean Elections | Mike Broomhead | [95] | P | A |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [96] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections [97] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [98] | Lean R | November 7, 2022 |
Politico [99] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
RCP [100] | Tossup | January 10, 2022 |
Fox News [101] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
538 [102] | Lean R | October 26, 2022 |
Elections Daily [103] | Lean R | November 7, 2022 |
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Campaign finance reports as of December 31st, 2022 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Katie Hobbs (D) | $14,796,583 | $14,703,952 | $527,969 |
Kari Lake (R) | $15,855,394 | $15,381,454 | $1,592,293 |
Source: SeeTheMoney [160] |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Kari Lake (R) | Katie Hobbs (D) | Undecided [o] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics [161] | November 1–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 50.8% | 47.3% | 1.9% | Lake +3.5 |
FiveThirtyEight [162] | October 17 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 49.5% | 47.1% | 3.4% | Lake +2.4 |
270ToWin [163] | November 3–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 48.9% | 46.9% | 4.2% | Lake +2.0 |
Average | 49.7% | 47.1% | 3.2% | Lake +2.6 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Kari Lake (R) | Katie Hobbs (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) [164] | November 5–7, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 47% | – | 3% |
Data Orbital (R) [165] | November 4–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 47% | 2% [p] | 2% |
Research Co. [166] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
Data for Progress (D) [167] | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,359 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
Targoz Market Research [168] | November 2–6, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 48% | 2% [q] | – |
KAConsulting (R) [169] [E] | November 2–3, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 6% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [170] | November 2, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% |
HighGround Inc. [171] | November 1–2, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 45% | 2% [r] | 6% |
Remington Research Group (R) [172] | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Big Data Poll (R) [173] | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,051 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
Marist College [174] | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 48% | 1% [s] | 4% |
1,015 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 49% | 1% [t] | 2% | ||
Civiqs [175] | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 48% | 1% [u] | – |
Alloy Analytics (R) [176] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 639 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 46% | – | 4% |
Emerson College [177] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 2% [v] | 2% |
50% | 47% | 3% [w] | – | ||||
The Phillips Academy [178] | October 29–30, 2022 | 985 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 42% | – | 4% |
Fox News [179] | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 3% [x] | 4% |
Wick Insights (R) [180] | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,122 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | 2% [y] | 2% |
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R) [181] [D] | October 24–26, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | – | – |
OH Predictive Insights [182] | October 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
Siena College/NYT [183] | October 24–26, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 48% | – | 4% |
BSP Research/Shaw & Co. [184] [F] | October 19–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 40% | 3% [z] | 14% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [170] | October 24–25, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 54% | 43% | – | 2% |
co/efficient (R) [185] | October 20–21, 2022 | 1,111 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
Data Orbital (R) [186] | October 17–19, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | 3% [aa] | 6% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [187] [G] | October 14–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | 2% [ab] | 3% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [188] [H] | October 16–17, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 46% | – | 4% |
Data for Progress (D) [189] | October 11–17, 2022 | 893 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | – | 4% |
Wick Insights (R) [190] | October 8–14, 2022 | 1,058 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 47% | 2% [ac] | 3% |
HighGround Inc. [191] [I] | October 12–13, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 46% | 2% [ad] | 7% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [192] | October 11, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 46% | – | 4% |
Ascend Action (R) [193] | October 8–10, 2022 | 954 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 45% | 5% [ae] | 5% |
Big Data Poll (R) [194] | October 2–5, 2022 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | 1% [af] | 6% |
YouGov/CBS News [195] | September 30 – October 4, 2022 | 1,164 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 49% | – | 1% |
CNN/SSRS [196] | September 26 – October 2, 2022 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 49% | 7% [ag] | – |
795 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | 5% [ah] | – | ||
Fox News [197] | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 44% | 6% [ai] | 7% |
Suffolk University [198] | September 21–25, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 46% | – | 8% |
Marist College [199] | September 19–22, 2022 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | <1% | 8% |
1,076 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% | ||
Data for Progress (D) [200] | September 15–19, 2022 | 768 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 47% | – | 3% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [201] | September 14–17, 2022 | 1,080 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 46% | – | 4% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [202] | September 8–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 49% | – | 3% |
Survey Monkey (D) [203] [J] | September 6–9, 2022 | 972 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 49% | – | 14% |
563 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 53% | – | 8% | ||
Emerson College [204] | September 6–7, 2022 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 2% [aj] | 6% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [205] | September 6–7, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 44% | – | 13% |
Echelon Insights [206] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 50% | – | 10% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [207] | August 24–27, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | 3% [ak] | 5% |
RMG Research [208] | August 16–22, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 44% | – | 9% |
Fox News [209] | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 2% | 6% |
American Viewpoint (R) [210] [K] | August 2022 | – (LV) | – | 46% | 47% | 3% | 4% |
Beacon Research (D) [211] [L] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 43% | 2% | 12% |
504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 49% | 3% | 7% | ||
TargetSmart (D) [212] [M] | June 28–30, 2022 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 47% | 7% | 8% |
GQR Research (D) [213] [N] | May 9–15, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 50% | – | 4% |
Data Orbital (R) [214] | February 11–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 41% | – | 16% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [215] | November 10, 2021 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 34% | 39% | 2% | 19% |
592 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 41% | 2% | 18% |
Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Katie Hobbs
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Karrin Taylor Robson (R) | Katie Hobbs (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beacon Research (D) [211] [L] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 42% | 4% | 13% |
504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 48% | 5% | 7% | ||
TargetSmart (D) [216] [M] | June 28–30, 2022 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 39% | 44% | 10% | 7% |
GQR Research (D) [217] [N] | May 9–15, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | – | 4% |
Data Orbital (R) [214] | February 11–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 42% | – | 21% |
Matt Salmon vs. Katie Hobbs
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Matt Salmon (R) | Katie Hobbs (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Orbital (R) [214] | February 11–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 41% | – | 20% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [215] | November 10, 2021 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 31% | 40% | 4% | 17% |
592 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 43% | 4% | 16% |
Steve Gaynor vs. Katie Hobbs
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Steve Gaynor (R) | Katie Hobbs (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Orbital (R) [214] | February 11–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights [218] | March 7–15, 2022 | 753 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 37% | 25% |
OH Predictive Insights [64] | January 11–13, 2022 | 855 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 35% | 26% |
OH Predictive Insights [65] | November 1–8, 2021 | 713 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
OH Predictive Insights [66] | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 36% | 25% |
Data for Progress (D) [219] [O] | September 15–22, 2020 | 481 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
Hobbs defeated Lake by a margin of 0.67%, narrowly outperforming Joe Biden's 0.3% margin of victory in 2020 in Arizona. Hobbs won by more than 37,000 votes in Maricopa County, home to a majority of Arizona's population, which was larger than her statewide margin of 17,117 votes.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Katie Hobbs | 1,287,891 | 50.32% | +8.48% | |
Republican | Kari Lake | 1,270,774 | 49.65% | −6.35% | |
Write-in | 820 | 0.03% | +0.01% | ||
Total votes | 2,559,485 | 100.0% | |||
Turnout | 2,592,313 | 62.56% | |||
Registered electors | 4,143,929 | ||||
Democratic gain from Republican |
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic |
Hobbs won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans. [221]
District | Hobbs | Lake | Representative elected |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 52% | 48% | David Schweikert |
2nd | 46% | 54% | Eli Crane |
3rd | 76% | 24% | Ruben Gallego |
4th | 56% | 44% | Greg Stanton |
5th | 43% | 57% | Andy Biggs |
6th | 52% | 48% | Juan Ciscomani |
7th | 67% | 33% | Raúl Grijalva |
8th | 45% | 55% | Debbie Lesko |
9th | 36% | 64% | Paul Gosar |
On November 17, Lake refused to concede defeat, and announced she was assembling a legal team to challenge the results. [222] [223] Lake alleged voter disfranchisement due to ballot printing problems and long waiting lines in Maricopa County, which had elections run by local Republican officials Bill Gates and Stephen Richer. [222] [224] In 70 out of 223 Maricopa County polling sites, voting machine ballots were printed too lightly to be read by tabulators; the problem was caused by a printer setting which had not shown widespread issues during prior testing. [222] [225] If voters did not want to wait in line for the issue to be fixed, they could leave to vote at another Maricopa County polling site, with wait times for polling sites being shown online, and many polling sites had little to no waiting lines, stated Maricopa County election officials. [222] [223] [226] Alternatively, voters could drop their ballots into a secure box ("Box 3"), with these ballots being later tabulated at Maricopa County's elections headquarters, under monitoring from observers from both parties; ultimately, around 17,000 Maricopa County ballots were dropped into Box 3. [222] [223] [227]
Bill Gates, the Republican chair of Maricopa's Board of Supervisors, partially blamed the long lines on Arizona Republican Party chairwoman Kelli Ward for discouraging voters from using Box 3; she had claimed that Box 3 should not be used as "Maricopa County is not turning on their tabulators downtown today". [222] [228] Lake herself told her supporters to stay in line to vote, while a lawyer for Lake's campaign assuaged concerns about using Box 3 to vote. [228] Lake's campaign filed a lawsuit on Election Day to extend voting for another three hours, but Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Tim Ryan declined to do so, stating: "The court doesn't have any evidence that any voter was precluded from their right to vote". [229]
While Lake alleged that Republican-dominated areas in Maricopa County were disproportionately affected by the printing problems, The Washington Post found that the percentage of registered Republicans in affected precincts (37%) was very close to the percentage of registered Republicans across Maricopa County (35%), and also found that some Democrat-dominated areas also faced the printing problems. [225] [230] According to the Associated Press: "Democrats voted overwhelmingly via ballots received in the mail. In-person Election Day votes heavily favored the GOP because Lake and other prominent Republicans had claimed it was more secure, which election experts dispute." [222] Meanwhile, The New York Times analyzed 45 of the claims of irregularities reported by voters, finding that in 34 of these 45 claims, the voters were able to cast their vote despite an inconvenience; while for the others, three raised problems with voter registration; seven gave unclear accounts as to what exactly happened; and only one said she had been denied the opportunity to vote, though she acknowledged she had arrived at her polling place at the time it closed. [228]
Arizona's Assistant Attorney General Jennifer Wright demanded that Maricopa County explain the election problems, stating: "These complaints go beyond pure speculation, but include first-hand witness accounts that raise concerns regarding Maricopa's lawful compliance with Arizona election law". [231]
14 of Arizona's 15 counties certified the voting results by the November 28, 2022 deadline; the exception was Cochise County. [232] Despite no evidence of irregularities with vote counting, Cochise County's Republican officials delayed their certification vote to December 2, 2022, to accommodate a hearing on the certification of voting machines. [233] On November 21, Arizona's State Elections Director, Kori Lorick, had sent county officials' confirmation that the county's voting machines had been certified by the United States Election Assistance Commission in an accredited laboratory. [234] However, the county's officials insisted on hearing more from those who had alleged that the voting machines were not properly certified. [235]
On November 29, Hobbs, as secretary of state, sued the county for being unable to certify results by the deadline. [236]
On December 1, the Pima County Superior Court ruled that the Cochise County Board of Supervisors must hold an emergency meeting on the same day to certify and approve the canvass. [237] Hours later, the Board voted 2–0 to do so. [238]
On December 9, 2022, after Arizona certified the election, Lake initiated a lawsuit seeking a court order to either overturn Hobbs' victory and declare Lake as the winner of the election, or redo the election in Maricopa County. [239] [240] Lake's complaint alleged that there were hundreds of thousands of illegal votes in the election, but no evidence was provided. [241] On December 19, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson dismissed eight of ten counts of Lake's lawsuit, regarding invalid signatures on mail-in ballots, incorrect certification, inadequate remedy, as well as violations of freedom of speech, equal protection, due process, the secrecy clause, and constitutional rights. [242] [243] The judge allowed the remaining two counts to go to trial, these being allegations that election officials intentionally interfered with Maricopa County ballot printers and with the chain of custody of Maricopa County ballots. [244] The judge ruled that Lake needed to prove during the trial that the above allegations were true, and that the alleged actions "did in fact result in a changed outcome" of the election. [245]
Lake's reaction to the judge's initial ruling was declaring: "Arizona, We will have our day in court!" [246] During the two-day trial, Northrop Grumman information security officer Clay Parikh, a witness called by Lake, testified that some ballots had printing errors that would cause tabulation issues, but also testified that these misprinted ballots would ultimately be counted after duplicates were made. [247] [248] On December 24, judge Thompson dismissed Lake's remaining case, as the court did not find clear and convincing evidence that misconduct was committed. [248] [249] [250] The judge wrote: "Every single witness before the Court disclaimed any personal knowledge of such [intentional] misconduct. The Court cannot accept speculation or conjecture in place of clear and convincing evidence". [251] [252] The judge further ruled that "printer failures did not actually affect the results of the election", while highlighting that one witness called by Lake testified that "printer failures were largely the result of unforeseen mechanical failure." [248] [251] Regarding the witness Richard Baris, a pollster, who alleged that potential voters were disenfranchised, the judge noted Baris' testimony that "nobody can give a specific number" of people who were disenfranchised, and called Baris' analysis "decidedly insufficient" in this case, because Baris' analysis showed that Hobbs "had a good chance of winning anyway" even after reversing the supposed disenfranchisement. [253]
On December 30, 2022, Lake appealed the ruling to the First Division of the Arizona Court of Appeals. [254] Lake also attempted to transfer her appeal directly to the Arizona Supreme Court, which denied this on January 4, 2023, ruling that there was "no good cause" to do so. [255] On February 16, a three-judge panel for the Arizona Court of Appeals affirmed Thompson's ruling; chief judge Kent Cattani wrote the opinion and two other judges, Maria Elena Cruz and Peter Swann, concurred. [6] [256] The appeals court found that "Lake’s only purported evidence" that long lines at voting centers "had any potential effect on election results was, quite simply, sheer speculation." [257] The appeals court noted that "Lake presented no evidence that voters whose ballots were unreadable by on-site tabulators were not able to vote", while highlighting that Lake's own cybersecurity expert testified to the contrary. [256] While Lake alleged that there was improper chain-of-custody documentation in Maricopa County, the appeals court decided that the lower court reasonably concluded that Lake failed to prove this allegation. [256] While Lake alleged that Maricopa County had improperly handled early ballots from election day, the appeals court ruled that even if this allegation was true, Lake "failed to present evidence, as opposed to speculation", that this affected the result of the election. [258] In summary, the appeals court wrote that the evidence presented in court showed that "voters were able to cast their ballots, that votes were counted correctly and that no other basis justifies setting aside the election results". [258]
Lake filed an appeal to the Arizona Supreme Court on March 1, 2023. [7] The Arizona Supreme Court issued a ruling on March 22, written by Arizona Supreme Court Chief Justice Robert Brutinel, finding that the Appeals Court correctly dismissed six of Lake's seven legal claims, as these challenges of hers were "insufficient to warrant the requested relief under Arizona or federal law." [8] [259] For Lake's remaining legal claim, on signature verification, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that the lower courts incorrectly interpreted her challenge as pertaining to signature verification policies themselves, instead of the application of such policies; thus this issue was sent back for Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson to reconsider. [8]
The Arizona Supreme Court in May 2023 employed "the extraordinary remedy of a sanction" against Lake's lawyer, which was a $2,000 fine, for having "made false factual statements to the Court". [260] [261] Within Lake's court filings was the claim that it was an "undisputed fact that 35,563 unaccounted for ballots were added to the total of ballots [at] a third party processing facility". [262] The Arizona Supreme Court responded that there is "no evidence that 35,563 ballots were" added, and further that Lake's claim had been disputed by Lake's legal opponents, so the claim of an "undisputed fact" is "unequivocally false". [260]
Later, in May 2023, Lake was granted a second trial by Judge Thompson, where Lake needed to prove that "Maricopa County’s higher level signature reviewers conducted no signature verification or curing", in violation of law, and that this changed the election result. [263] Thompson later acknowledged that the scope of Lake's claim of misconduct also extended to Maricopa County's lower level signature reviewers. [264] The result of the trial was that Lake's remaining claim on improper signature verification was dismissed; Judge Thompson ruled on May 22, 2023, that Lake had not provided "clear and convincing evidence or a preponderance of evidence" of misconduct in the election; instead the court received "ample evidence that — objectively speaking — a comparison between voter records and signatures was conducted in every instance [that Lake] asked the Court to evaluate." [9] [265] Thompson noted that Lake's attorneys earlier argued that Maricopa County did not perform signature verification, but later argued that signature verification was performed, but done too quickly. [9] Thompson concluded that it was possible for signature verification to be done quickly and properly when "looking at signatures that, by and large, have consistent characteristics". [266] Meanwhile, Lake's own witnesses testified to performing signature verification for Maricopa County. [9] Thompson did not sanction Lake for her final claim, stating that while there was no clear or convincing evidence for this claim, it was not necessarily "groundless". [267]
The results of an independent investigation into the 2022 election's printing problems was published in April 2023; the investigation was led by a retired chief justice of the Arizona Supreme Court, Ruth McGregor, who concluded that "the primary cause of the election day failures was equipment failure", and that no evidence gathered gave "clear indication that the problems should have been anticipated". McGregor also detailed: "Two-thirds of the general election vote centers reported no issues with misprinted ballots; approximately 94 percent of election day ballots were not faulty". [268] [269]
On November 7, 2024, the Arizona Supreme Court, on par with previous rulings by trial judges and the Arizona Court of Appeals, rejected Lake's final appeal to overturn the results of the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election and get a new election before 2026. [270] [271] [272]
Partisan clients
Thomas Liddy is an American attorney in Maricopa County, Arizona. He is the son of the Watergate figure G. Gordon Liddy.
Kari Lake Halperin is an American political figure and former television news anchor. She was the Republican Party's nominee in both Arizona's 2022 gubernatorial and 2024 United States Senate elections.
Karen Fann is a former Republican member of the Arizona Senate, representing Arizona Legislative District 1. Fann became President of the Arizona Senate in 2019, and served until 2023.
Kathleen Marie Hobbs is an American politician and social worker serving as the 24th governor of Arizona since 2023. Hobbs is the first social worker to be elected governor of a U.S. state and is Arizona's fifth female governor. A member of the Democratic Party, she was secretary of state of Arizona from 2019 to 2023 and a member of the Arizona Legislature from 2011 to 2019.
A general election was held in the U.S. state of Arizona on November 6, 2018. All of Arizona's executive offices were up for election as well as a United States Senate seat and all of Arizona's nine seats in the United States House of Representatives. The Republican Party won the majority of statewide offices, albeit by much narrower margins than in previous elections, while the Democratic Party picked up three statewide offices.
Mark William Finchem is an American far right politician who served as a member of the Arizona House of Representatives representing District 11 from 2015 to 2023. He is the Arizona coordinator for the Coalition of Western States, an organization that opposes the activities of the Bureau of Land Management and supported the occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in 2016.
A special election for Arizona's 8th congressional district was held in 2018 subsequent to the resignation of Republican U.S. Representative Trent Franks. Governor Doug Ducey called a special primary election for Tuesday, February 27, 2018, and a special general election for the balance of Franks' eighth term for Tuesday, April 24, 2018.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego defeated Republican former news journalist Kari Lake to succeed independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.
The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump of Florida and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian nominees were also on the ballot. This is the closest presidential election in Arizona history, surpassing the previous closest of 1964, in which Barry Goldwater won the state by just under a single percentage point.
The 2022 Arizona Attorney General election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the next attorney general of Arizona concurrently with other federal and state elections. Incumbent Republican attorney general Mark Brnovich was term-limited and could not seek a third term in office. With a margin of 0.01%, Democrat Kris Mayes defeated Republican Abe Hamadeh in one of the closest elections in Arizona history, and the closest attorney general race of the 2022 election cycle. The race is also believed to be the only election directly affected by the deaths of anti-vaccine advocates from COVID-19.
In direct response to election changes related to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona, and "Sharpiegate"; the Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign launched numerous lawsuits contesting the election processes of Arizona. All of these were either dismissed or dropped.
The 2022 Arizona elections were held in the state of Arizona on November 8, 2022, coinciding with the nationwide general election. All six executive offices were up for election, as well as a U.S. Senate seat, all of the state's U.S. House of Representatives seats, and the state legislature.
The 2022 Arizona Secretary of State election was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect the next Secretary of State of Arizona. Incumbent Secretary of State Katie Hobbs declined to run for a second term, to instead run for governor. Primary elections were held on August 2, 2022. Democrat and former Maricopa County recorder Adrian Fontes defeated Republican representative Mark Finchem by 4.8%.
The 2022 Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the Superintendent of Public Instruction of Arizona. Incumbent Democratic Superintendent Kathy Hoffman was defeated in her run for a second term by former Republican Attorney General Tom Horne. Significantly, Horne's win marked the first time in the state's history that a Republican won a statewide race without winning Maricopa County, home to 62% of the state's population and a former Republican stronghold; the only other statewide 2022 Republican candidate to win that year, Kimberly Yee, won her race by a wide margin partly by carrying Maricopa County.
The America First Secretary of State Coalition was an American right-wing coalition formed to support a slate of candidates in the 2022 United States secretary of state elections who supported former president Donald Trump's baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen. The coalition's president was Jim Marchant, the unsuccessful Republican nominee for Secretary of State of Nevada, and was headquartered in Las Vegas.
Abraham Jamal Hamadeh is an American politician, former prosecutor, and U.S. Army intelligence officer, who is the member-elect to the U.S. House of Representatives for Arizona's 8th congressional district. Hamadeh was previously the Republican Party nominee for Arizona attorney general in the 2022 election.
Liz Harris is an American politician from Arizona and the Arizona RNC National Committeewoman. A Republican, she was a member of the Arizona House of Representatives from January 2023 to April 2023. Harris was elected in November 2022 from the 13th legislative district, which includes much of Chandler, Arizona.
Alexander Kolodin, or Alex Kolodin is an American lawyer, politician and Republican member of the Arizona House of Representatives elected to represent District 3 in 2022.
The Maricopa County Recorder's Office is a county office located in Maricopa County, Arizona. It has three primary statutory functions: document recordation, voter registration, and early voting.
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: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)...these technical issues were cropping up in Maricopa County, which has been the epicenter of election conspiracies for the past two years. The local officials running the election—Bill Gates, the chair of the county board of supervisors, and Stephen Richer, the county recorder—were already under enormous scrutiny.
The lawsuit filed late Friday by Lake ... also alleges hundreds of thousands of ballots were illegally cast, but there's no evidence that's true.
Official campaign websites