Population growth

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Absolute increase in global human population per year Absolute increase in global population per year, OWID.svg
Absolute increase in global human population per year

Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. Global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year. [2] The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.9 billion in 2020. [3] The UN projected population to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. [4] However, some academics outside the UN have increasingly developed human population models that account for additional downward pressures on population growth; in such a scenario population would peak before 2100. [5]

Contents

World human population has been growing since the end of the Black Death, around the year 1350. [6] A mix of technological advancement that improved agricultural productivity and sanitation and medical advancement that reduced mortality increased population growth. In some geographies, this has slowed through the process called the demographic transition, where many nations with high standards of living have seen a significant slowing of population growth. This is in direct contrast with less developed contexts, where population growth is still happening. [7] Globally, the rate of population growth has declined from a peak of 2.2% per year in 1963. [8] The global human population is projected to peak during the mid-21st century and decline by 2100. [9]

Population growth alongside increased consumption is a driver of environmental concerns, such as biodiversity loss and climate change, due to resources utilised in human development. [10] International policy focused on mitigating the impact of human population growth is concentrated in the Sustainable Development Goals which seek to improve the standard of living globally while reducing the impact of society on the environment.

Population [11]
Years
passed
YearPop.
(billions)
18001
12719272
3319603
1419744
1319875
1219996
1220117
122023*8
142037*9
182055*10
332088*11
*World Population Prospects 2017
(United Nations Population Division)

History

World human population estimates from 1800 to 2100, with estimated range of future population after 2020 based on "high" and "low" scenarios. Data from the United Nations projections in 2019. Human population since 1800.png
World human population estimates from 1800 to 2100, with estimated range of future population after 2020 based on "high" and "low" scenarios. Data from the United Nations projections in 2019.

World population has been rising continuously since the end of the Black Death, around the year 1350. [6] Population began growing rapidly in the Western world during the industrial revolution. The most significant increase in the world's population has been since the 1950s, mainly due to medical advancements [12] and increases in agricultural productivity. [13]

Haber process

Due to its dramatic impact on the human ability to grow food, the Haber process, named after one of its inventors, the German chemist Fritz Haber, served as the "detonator of the population explosion", enabling the global population to increase from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7.7 billion by November 2019. [14]

Thomas McKeown hypotheses

Some of the reasons for the "Modern Rise of Population" [15] were particularly investigated by the British health scientist Thomas McKeown (1912-1988). In his publications, McKeown challenged four theories about the population growth:

  1. McKeown stated that the growth in Western population, particularly surging in the 19th century, was not so much caused by an increase in fertility, but largely by a decline of mortality particularly of childhood mortality followed by infant mortality, [16] [17]
  2. The decline of mortality could largely be attributed to rising standards of living, whereby McKeown put most emphasis on improved nutritional status,
  3. His most controversial idea, or at least his most disputed idea, was that he questioned the effectiveness of public health measures, including sanitary reforms, vaccination and quarantine, [18]
  4. The sometimes fierce disputes that his publication provoked around the "McKeown thesis" have overshadowed his more important and largely unchallenged argument that curative medicine measures played little role in mortality decline, not only prior to the mid-20th century [16] but also until well into the 20th century. [19]

Although the McKeown thesis has been heavily disputed, recent studies have confirmed the value of his ideas. [20] His work is pivotal for present day thinking about population growth, birth control, public health and medical care. McKeown had a major influence on many population researchers, such as health economists and Nobel prize winners Robert W. Fogel (1993) and Angus Deaton (2015). The latter considered McKeown as "the founder of social medicine". [21]

Growth rate models

The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:

A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times. [22]

A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of females is decreasing.

Most populations do not grow exponentially, rather they follow a logistic model. Once the population has reached its carrying capacity, it will stabilize and the exponential curve will level off towards the carrying capacity, which is usually when a population has depleted most its natural resources. [23] In the world human population, growth has been following a linear trend throughout the last few decades. [8]

The logistic growth of a population. Logistic growth graph (population ecology).JPG
The logistic growth of a population.

Logistic equation

The growth of a population can often be modelled by the logistic equation [24]

where

As it is a separable differential equation, the population may be solved explicitly, producing a logistic function:

,

where and is the initial population at time 0.

Population growth rate

A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman according to the CIA World Factbook's 2016 data
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7-8 children
6-7 children
5-6 children
4-5 children
3-4 children
2-3 children
1-2 children
0-1 children Countriesbyfertilityrate.svg
A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman according to the CIA World Factbook's 2016 data
Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050 according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people. (2011) World population (UN).svg
Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050 according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people. (2011)
World population growth rates between 1950 and 2050 World population growth rate 1950-2050.svg
World population growth rates between 1950 and 2050

The world population growth rate peaked in 1963 at 2.2% per year and subsequently declined. [8] In 2017, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%. [25] The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively. [26] The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population, due to medical advances, lower mortality rates, and an increase in agricultural productivity made possible by the Green Revolution. [27]

The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88.0 million in 1989, then slowly declined to 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. In 2017, the human population increased by 83 million. [25] Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades, though annual growth rates remain above 2% in some countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. [28]

In some countries the population is declining, especially in Eastern Europe, mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of AIDS-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also experience population decline. [29] Japan's population began decreasing in 2005. [30]

The United Nations Population Division projects world population to reach 11.2 billion by the end of the 21st century. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects that the global population will peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion and decline to 8.89 billion in 2100. [9] A 2014 study in Science concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100, with a 70% chance of continued growth into the 22nd century. [31] [32] The German Foundation for World Population reported in December 2019 that the global human population grows by 2.6 people every second, and could reach 8 billion by 2023. [33] [34]

Growth by country

According to United Nations population statistics, the world population grew by 30%, or 1.6 billion humans, between 1990 and 2010. [35] In number of people the increase was highest in India (350 million) and China (196 million). Population growth rate was among highest in the United Arab Emirates (315%) and Qatar (271%). [35]

Growth rates of the world's most populous countries
RankCountryPopulationAnnual Growth (%)
199020102020 (est.) [36] 1990–20102010–2020
World5,306,425,0006,895,889,0007,503,828,1801.3%0.8%
1 Flag of the People's Republic of China.svg China 1,139,060,0001,341,335,0001,384,688,9860.8%0.3%
2 Flag of India.svg India 873,785,0001,224,614,0001,296,834,0421.7%0.6%
3 Flag of the United States.svg United States 253,339,000310,384,000329,256,4651.0%0.6%
4 Flag of Indonesia.svg Indonesia 184,346,000239,871,000262,787,4031.3%0.9%
5 Flag of Brazil.svg Brazil 149,650,000194,946,000208,846,8921.3%0.7%
6 Flag of Pakistan.svg Pakistan 111,845,000173,593,000207,862,5182.2%1.8%
7 Flag of Nigeria.svg Nigeria 97,552,000158,423,000203,452,5052.5%2.5%
8 Flag of Bangladesh.svg Bangladesh 105,256,000148,692,000159,453,0011.7%0.7%
9 Flag of Russia.svg Russia 148,244,000142,958,000142,122,776-0.2%−0.1%
10 Flag of Japan.svg Japan 122,251,000128,057,000126,168,1560.2%−0.1%

Many of the world's countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc. in some of the less fortunate countries. For example, the population of Chad has ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009, [37] further straining its resources. Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population.

The following table gives some example countries or territories:

Country/territoryPopulation inLife expectancy
in years (2008)
Total population
growth from 1960s
to 2007-2011
19671990199420022008
Flag of Eritrea.svg Eritrea*N/A*N/A*3,437,000 [38] 4,298,2695,673,520 [39] 61 [40] 2,236,520
Flag of Ethiopia.svg Ethiopia*23,457,000* [41] 50,974,000* [42] 54,939,000 [38] 67,673,031(2003)79,221,000 [43] 55 [40] 55,764,000
Flag of Sudan.svg Sudan 14,355,000† [41] 25,204,000† [42] 27,361,000† [38] 38,114,160 (2003)†42,272,000† [39] 50† [40] 27,917,000
Flag of Chad.svg Chad 3,410,000 [41] 5,679,000 [42] 6,183,000 [38] 9,253,493(2003)10,329,208 (2009) [37] 47 [40] 6,919,205
Flag of Niger.svg Niger 3,546,000 [41] 7,732,000 [42] 8,846,000 [38] 10,790,352 (2001)15,306,252 (2009) [44] 44 [40] 11,760,252
Flag of Nigeria.svg Nigeria 61,450,000 [41] 88,500,000 [42] 108,467,000 [38] 129,934,911158,259,000 [39] 47 [40] 96,809,000
Flag of Mali.svg Mali 4,745,000 [41] 8,156,000 [42] 10,462,000 [38] 11,340,48014,517,176(2010) [45] 50 [40] 9,772,176
Flag of Mauritania.svg Mauritania 1,050,000 [41] 2,025,000 [42] 2,211,000 [38] 2,667,859 (2003)3,291,000 (2009) [37] 54 [40] 2,241,000
Flag of Senegal.svg Senegal 3,607,000 [41] 7,327,000 [42] 8,102,000 [38] 9,967,21513,711,597 (2009) [46] 57 [40] 10,104,597
Flag of The Gambia.svg Gambia 343,000 [41] 861,000 [42] 1,081,000 [38] 1,367,124 (2000)1,705,000 [39] 55 [40] 1,362,000
Flag of Algeria.svg Algeria 11,833,126 (1966) [41] 25,012,000 [42] 27,325,000 [38] 32,818,500 (2003)34,895,000 [43] [47] 74 [40] 23,061,874
Flag of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.svg The DRC/Zaire 16,353,000 [41] 35,562,000 [42] 42,552,000 [38] 55,225,478 (2003)70,916,439 [43] [48] 54 [40] 54,563,439
Flag of Egypt.svg Egypt 30,083,419 (1966) [41] 53,153,000 [42] 58,326,000 [38] 70,712,345 (2003)79,089,650 [43] [49] 72 [40] 49,006,231
Flag of France.svg Réunion
(overseas region of France)
418,000 [41] N/A [42] N/A [38] 720,934 (2003)827,000 (2009) [39] N/A [40] 409,000
Flag of the Falkland Islands.svg Falkland Islands
(British Overseas Territory)
2,500 [41] N/A [42] N/A [38] 2,967 (2003)3,140(2010) [50] N/A [40] 640
Flag of Chile.svg Chile 8,935,500 [41] 13,173,000 [42] 13,994,000 [38] 15,116,43517,224,200 (2011)77 [40] 8,288,700
Flag of Colombia.svg Colombia 19,191,000 [41] 32,987,000 [42] 34,520,000 [38] 41,088,22745,925,397 (2010) [51] 73 [40] 26,734,397
Flag of Brazil.svg Brazil 85,655,000 [41] 150,368,000 [42] 153,725,000 [38] 174,468,575 (2000)190,732,694 (2010) [52] 72 [40] 105,077,694
Flag of Mexico.svg Mexico 45,671,000 [41] 86,154,000 [42] 93,008,000 [38] 103,400,165 (2000)112,322,757 (2010) [53] 76 [40] 66,651,757
Flag of Fiji.svg Fiji 476,727 (1966) [41] 765,000 [42] 771,000 [38] 844,330 (2001)849,000 [47] (2010)70 [40] 372,273
Flag of Nauru.svg Nauru 6,050 (1966) [41] 10,000 [42] N/A [38] 12,3299,322 (2011) [54] N/A [40] 3,272
Flag of Jamaica.svg Jamaica 1,876,000 [41] 2,420,000 [42] 2,429,000 [38] 2,695,867 (2003)2,847,232 [55] (2010)74 [40] 971,232
Flag of Australia (converted).svg Australia 11,540,764 (1964) [41] 17,086,000 [42] 17,843,000 [38] 19,546,792 (2003)26,299,314 [56] (2010)82 [40] 10,066,508
Flag of Albania.svg Albania 1,965,500 (1964) [41] 3,250,000 [42] 3,414,000 [38] 3,510,4842,986,952 (July 2010 est.) [37] [57] 78 [40] 1,021,452
Flag of Poland.svg Poland 31,944,000 [41] 38,180,000 [42] 38,554,000 [38] 38,626,349 (2001)38,192,000 (2010) [58] 75 [40] 6,248,000
Flag of Hungary.svg Hungary 10,212,000 [41] 10,553,000 [42] 10,261,000 [38] 10,106,0179,979,000 (2010) [59] 73 [40] -142,000
Flag of Bulgaria.svg Bulgaria 8,226,564 (1965) [41] 8,980,000 [42] 8,443,000 [38] 7,707,495(2000)7,351,234 (2011) [60] 73 [40] -875,330
Flag of the United Kingdom.svg United Kingdom 55,068,000 (1966) [41] 57,411,000 [42] 58,091,000 [38] 58,789,19462,008,048 (2010) [61] 79 [40] 7,020,048
Flag of Ireland.svg Ireland 2,884,002 (1966) [41] 3,503,000 [42] 3,571,000 [38] 3,840,838 (2000)4,470,700 [62] (2010)78 [40] 1,586,698
Flag of the People's Republic of China.svg People's Republic of China 720,000,000 [41] 1,139,060,000 [42] 1,208,841,000 [38] 1,286,975,468 (2004)1,339,724,852 (2010) [63] 73 [40] 619,724,852
Flag of Japan.svg Japan98,274,961 (1965) [41] 123,537,000 [42] 124,961,000 [38] 127,333,002127,420,000 (2010) [64] 82 [40] 28,123,865
Flag of India.svg India#511,115,000 [41] 843,931,000 [42] 918,570,000 [38] 1,028,610,328 (2001)1,210,193,422 (2011) [65] 69 [40] 699,078,422
Flag of Singapore.svg Singapore 1,956,000 (1967) [41] 3,003,000 (1990) [42] 2,930,000 (1994) [38] 4,452,732 (2002)5,076,700 (2010) [66] 82 (2008) [40] 3,120,700
Flag of Monaco.svg Monaco 24,000 (1967) [41] 29,000 (1990) [42] N/A (1994) [38] 31,842 (2000)35,586 [67] (2010)(2008) [40] 11,586
Flag of Greece.svg Greece 8,716,000 (1967) [41] 10,123,000 (1990) [42] 10,426,000 (1994) [38] 10,964,020 (2001) [68] 11,305,118 (2011) [69] N/A (2008) [40] 2,589,118
Flag of the Faroe Islands.svg Faroe Islands
(Danish dependency)
38,000 (1967) [41] N/A (1990) [42] N/A (1994) [38] 46,345 (2000)48,917 (2010) [70] N/A (2008) [40] 18,917
Flag of Liechtenstein.svg Liechtenstein 20,000 (1967) [41] 29,000 (1990) [42] N/A (1994) [38] 33,307 (2000)35,789 (2009) [71] (2008) [40] 15,789
Flag of South Korea.svg South Korea 29,207,856 (1966) [41] 42,793,000 (1990) [42] 44,453,000 (1994) [38] 48,324,000 (2003)48,875,000 (2010) [72] (2008) [40] 19,667,144
Flag of North Korea.svg North Korea 12,700,000 (1967) [41] 21,773,000 (1990) [42] 23,483,000 (1994) [38] 22,224,195 (2002)24,051,218 (2010) [73] (2008) [40] 11,351,218
Flag of Brunei.svg Brunei 107,200 (1967) [41] 266,000 (1990) [42] 280,000 (1994) [38] 332,844 (2001)401,890 (2011) [74] 76 (2008) [40] 306,609
Flag of Malaysia.svg Malaysia 10,671,000 (1967) [41] 17,861,000 (1990) [42] 19,489,000 (1994) [38] 21,793,293 (2002)27,565,821 (2010) [75] (2008) [40] 16,894,821
Flag of Thailand.svg Thailand 32,680,000 (1967) [41] 57,196,000 (1990) [42] 59,396,000 (1994) [38] 60,606,947 (2000) [76] 63,878,267 (2011) [77] (2008) [40] 31,198,267
Flag of Lebanon.svg Lebanon 2,520,000 (1967) [41] 2,701,000 (1990) [42] 2,915,000 (1994) [38] 3,727,703 [78] (2003)4,224,000 [39] (2009)- (2008) [40]
Flag of Syria.svg Syria 5,600,000 (1967) [41] 12,116,000 (1990) [42] 13,844,000 (1994) [38] 17,585,540 (2003)22,457,763 (2011) [79] -(2008) [40]
Flag of Bahrain.svg Bahrain 182,00 (1967) [41] 503,000 (1990) [42] 549,000 (1994) [38] 667,238 (2003)1,234,596 [80] (2010)75 (2008) [40]
Flag of Sri Lanka.svg Sri Lanka 11,741,000 (1967) [41] 16,993,000 (1990) [42] 17,685,000 (1994) [38] 19,607,519 (2002)20,238,000 [47] (2009)- (2008) [40]
Flag of Switzerland.svg Switzerland 6,050,000 (1967) [41] 6.712,000 (1990) [42] 6,994,000 (1994) [38] 7,261,200 (2002)7,866,500 [81] (2010)- (2008) [40]
Flag of Luxembourg.svg Luxembourg 335,000 (1967) [41] 381,000 (1990) [42] 401,000 (1994) [38] 439,539 (2001)511,840 (2011) [82] - (2008) [40]
Flag of Romania.svg Romania 19,105,056 (1966) [41] 23,200,000 (1990) [42] 22,736,000 (1994) [38] 21,680,974 (2002)21,466,174 [83] (2011)- (2008) [40]
Flag of Niue.svg Niue
(associated state of New Zealand)
1,900 (1966) [41] N/A (1990) [42] N/A (1994) [38] 2,134 (2002)1,398 (2009) [84] N/A (2008) [40] -502
Flag of Tokelau.svg Tokelau
(New Zealand territory)
5,194 (1966) [41] N/A (1990) [42] N/A (1994) [38] 1,445 (2001)1,416 (2009)N/A (2008) [40] -3,778
Flag of Jamaica.svg Jamaica 1,876,000 (1967) [41] 2,420,000 (1990) [42] 2,429,000 (1994) [38] 2,695,867 (2003)2,847,232 [55] (2010)74 (2008) [40] 971,232
Flag of Argentina.svg Argentina 32,031,000 (1967) [41] 32,322,000 (1990) [42] 34,180,000 (1994) [38] 37,812,817 (2002)40,091,359 (2010)74 (2008) [40] 8,060,359
Flag of France.svg France 49,890,660 (1967) [41] 56,440,000 (1990) [42] 57,747,000 (1994) [38] 59,551,000 (2001)63,136,180 (2011) [85] 81 (2008) [40]
Flag of Italy.svg Italy 52,334,000 (1967) [41] 57,662,000 (1990) [42] 57,193,000 (1994) [38] 56,995,744 (2002)60,605,053 [86] (2011)80 (2008) [40]
Flag of Mauritius.svg Mauritius 774,000 (1967) [41] 1,075,000 (1990) [42] 1,104,000 (1994) [38] 1,179,137 (2000)1,288,000 (2009) [47] 75 (2008) [40] 514,000
Flag of Guatemala.svg Guatemala 4,717,000 (1967) [41] 9,197,000 (1990) [42] 10,322,000 (1994) [38] 12,974,361 (2000)13,276,517 (2009)70 (2008) [40] 8,559,517
Flag of Cuba.svg Cuba 8,033,000 (1967) [41] 10,609,000 (1990) [42] 10,960,000 (1994) [38] 11,177,743 (2002)11,239,363 (2009) [87] 77 (2008) [40]
Flag of Barbados.svg Barbados 246,000 (1967) [41] 255,000 (1990) [42] 261,000 (1994) [38] 250,012 (2001)284,589 (2010) [37] 73 (2008) [40] 18,589
Flag of Samoa.svg Samoa 131,377 (1967) [41] 164,000 (1990) [42] 164,000 (1994) [38] 178,173 (2003)179,000 (2009) [39] N/A (2008) [40]
Flag of Sweden.svg Sweden 7,765,981 (1967) [41] 8,559,000 (1990) [42] 8,794,000 (1994) [38] 8,920,705 (2002)9,354,462 (2009)81 (2008) [40]
Flag of Finland.svg Finland 4,664,000 (1967) [41] 4,986,000 (1990) [42] 5,095,000 (1994) [38] 5,175,783 (2002)5,374,781 (2010)N/A (2008) [40]
Flag of Portugal.svg Portugal 9,440,000 (1967) [41] 10,525,000 (1990) [42] 9,830,000 (1994) [38] 10,355,824 (2001)10,647,763 [88] (2011)N/A (2008) [40]
Flag of Austria.svg Austria 7,323,981 (1967) [41] 7,712,000 (1990) [42] 8,031,000 (1994) [38] 8,032,926 (2001)8,404,252 (2011)N/A (2008) [40]
Flag of Libya.svg Libya 1,738,000 (1967) [41] 4,545,000 (1990) [42] 5,225,000(1994) [38] 5,499,074 (2002)6,420,000 (2009) [39] 77 (2008) [40]
Flag of Peru.svg Peru 12,385,000 (1967) [41] 21,550,000 (1990) [42] 23,080,000(1994) [38] 27,949,639 (2002)29,496,000 (2010)70 (2008) [40]
Flag of Guinea-Bissau.svg Guinea Bissau 528,000 (1967) [41] 965,000 (1990) [42] 1,050,000 (1994) [38] 1,345,479 (2002)1,647,000 [39] (2009)48 (2008) [40]
Flag of Angola.svg Angola 5,203,066 (1967) [41] 10,020,000 (1990) [42] 10,674,000 (1994) [38] 10,766,500 (2003)18,498,000 [47] [89] (2009)38 (2008) [40]
Flag of Equatorial Guinea.svg Equatorial Guinea 277,000 (1967) [41] 348,000 (1990) [42] 389,000 (1994) [38] 474,214 (2000)676,000 (2009) [47] 61 (2008) [40]
Flag of Benin.svg Benin 2,505,000 (1967) [41] 4,736,000 (1990) [42] 5,246,000 (1994) [38] 8,500,500 (2002)8,791,832 (2009)59 (2008) [40]
Flag of Laos.svg Laos 2,770,000 (1967) [41] 4,139,000 (1990) [42] 4,742,000 (1994) [38] 5,635,967 (2002)6,800,000 [90] (2011)56 (2008) [40]
Flag of Nepal.svg Nepal 10,500,000 (1967) [41] 18,961,000 (1990) [42] 21,360,000 (1994) [38] 25,284,463 (2002)29,331,000 [47] (2009)- (2008) [40]
Flag of Iran.svg Iran 25,781,090 (1966) [41] 54,608,000 (1990) [42] 59,778,000 (1994) [38] 66,622,704 (2002)75,330,000 (2010) [91] 71 (2008) [40] 49,548,910
Flag of Canada (Pantone).svg Canada 20,014,880 (1966) [41] 26,603,000 (1990) [42] 29,248,000(1994) [38] 31,081,900 (2001)32,623,490 (2011) [92] 81 (2008) [40]
Flag of the United States.svg United States 199,118,000 (1967) [41] 249,995,000 (1990) [42] 260,650,00(1994) [38] 281,421,906 (2000)308,745,538 (2010) [93] 78 (2008) [40]
Flag of Uganda.svg Uganda 7,931,000 (1967) [41] 18,795,000 (1990) [42] 20,621,000 (1994) [38] 24,227,297 (2002)32,369,558 (2009)52 (2008) [40]
Notes
* Eritrea left Ethiopia in 1991.
Split into the nations of Sudan and South Sudan during 2011.
Japan and the Ryukyu Islands merged in 1972.
# India and Sikkim merged in 1975.
Population growth 1990–2012 (%) [94]
Africa 73.3%
Middle East 68.2%
Asia (excl. China)42.8%
China 19.0%
OECD Americas 27.9%
Non-OECD Americas36.6%
OECD Europe 11.5%
OECD Asia Oceania 11.1%
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia -0.8%
Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. The capital, Dhaka, bustles around Nilkhet Mor. Nilkhet Mor in Dhaka by Nahid 02.jpg
Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. The capital, Dhaka, bustles around Nilkhet Mor.

Future population

World population growth 1700-2100 World population growth, 1700-2100, 2019 revision.png
World population growth 1700–2100

Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future. [95] These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. [96] Models of population growth take trends in human development, and apply projections into the future. [97] These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth. [97]

The 2019 projections from the United Nations Population Division (made before the COVID-19 pandemic) show that annual world population growth peaked at 2.1% in 1968, has since dropped to 1.1%, and could drop even further to 0.1% by 2100, which would be a growth rate not seen since pre-industrial revolution days. [98] Based on this, the UN Population Division projects the world population, which is 7.8 billion as of 2020, to level out around 2100 at 10.9 billion (the median line), [99] [100] assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.9 in 2095–2100, according to the medium-variant projection. [101] A 2014 projection has the population continuing to grow into the next century. [102]

However, estimates outside of the United Nations have put forward alternative models based on additional downward pressure on fertility (such as successful implementation of education and family planning goals in the Sustainable Development Goals) which could result in peak population during the 2060-2070 period rather than later. [97] [103]

According to the UN, about two-thirds of the predicted growth in population between 2020 and 2050 will take place in Africa. [104] It is projected that 50% of births in the 5-year period 2095-2100 will be in Africa. [105] Other organizations project lower levels of population growth in Africa based particularly on improvement in women's education and successfully implementing family planning. [106]

By 2100, the UN projects the population in Sub-Saharan Africa will reach 3.8 billion, IHME projects 3.1 billion, and IIASA is the lowest at 2.6 billion. In contrast to the UN projections, the models of fertility developed by IHME and IIASA incorporate women's educational attainment, and in the case of IHME, also assume successful implementation of family planning. [107]

World population prospects, 2022 World Population Prospects.svg
World population prospects, 2022
Because of population momentum the global population will continue to grow, although at a steadily slower rate, for the remainder of this century, but the main driver of long-term future population growth will be the evolution of the global average fertility rate. [101]
Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE to 2000 CE. Population curve.svg
Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE to 2000 CE.
The majority of world population growth today is occurring in less developed countries. Comparing Population Growth By Country's Development, 2002.svg
The majority of world population growth today is occurring in less developed countries.

See also

Related Research Articles

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of Nigeria</span> Aspects of human geography in Nigeria

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of Saudi Arabia</span>

Saudi Arabia is the fourth largest state in the Arab world, with a reported population of 35,013,414 as of 2018. 38.3% of inhabitants are immigrants. Saudi Arabia has experienced a population explosion in the last 40 years, and continues to grow at a rate of 1.62% per year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demography</span> Science that deals with populations and their structures, statistically and theoretically

Demography is the statistical study of populations, especially human beings.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of Bangladesh</span> Demographics of country

Bangladesh is the eighth-most populated country in the world with almost 2.2% of the world's population. The population is estimated by the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects to have stood at 169,356,251 in 2021.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of the United States</span>

The United States had an official resident population of 332,403,650 on January 1, 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This figure includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia but excludes the population of five unincorporated U.S. territories as well as several minor island possessions. The United States is the third most populous country in the world. The Census Bureau showed a population increase of 0.12% for the twelve-month period ending in July 2021, below the world average annual rate of 0.9%. The total fertility rate in the United States estimated for 2021 is 1.664 children per woman, which is below the replacement fertility rate of approximately 2.1.

Zero population growth, sometimes abbreviated ZPG, is a condition of demographic balance where the number of people in a specified population neither grows nor declines, that is, the number of births plus in-migrants equals the number of deaths plus out-migrants. ZPG has been a prominent political movement since the 1960’s. As part of the concept of optimum population, the movement considers zero population growth to be an objective towards which countries and the whole world should strive in the interests of accomplishing long-term optimal standards and conditions of living.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Total fertility rate</span> Number of children a woman is expected to have barring select circumstances

The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:

  1. she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime
  2. she were to live from birth until the end of her reproductive life.
<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sub-replacement fertility</span> Total fertility rate that (if sustained) leads to each new generation being less populous

Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate (TFR) that leads to each new generation being less populous than the older, previous one in a given area. The United Nations Population Division defines sub-replacement fertility as any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman of childbearing age, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4 in some developing countries because of higher mortality rates. Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement was 2.33 children per woman in 2003. This can be "translated" as 2 children per woman to replace the parents, plus a "third of a child" to make up for the higher probability of males born and mortality prior to the end of a person's fertile life. In 2020, the average global fertility rate was around 2.4 children born per woman.

A population decline in humans is a reduction in a human population size. Over the long term, stretching from prehistory to the present, Earth's total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end.

Population ageing Increasing median age in a population

Population ageing is an increasing median age in a population because of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Most countries have rising life expectancy and an ageing population, trends that emerged first in developed countries but are now seen in virtually all developing countries. That is the case for every country in the world except the 18 countries designated as "demographic outliers" by the United Nations. The aged population is currently at its highest level in human history. The UN predicts the rate of population ageing in the 21st century will exceed that of the previous century. The number of people aged 60 years and over has tripled since 1950 and reached 600 million in 2000 and surpassed 700 million in 2006. It is projected that the combined senior and geriatric population will reach 2.1 billion by 2050. Countries vary significantly in terms of the degree and pace of ageing, and the UN expects populations that began ageing later will have less time to adapt to its implications.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Human overpopulation</span> Proposed condition wherein human numbers exceed the carrying capacity of the environment

Human overpopulation is the concept of a human population becoming too large to be sustained by its environment or resources in the long term. The idea is usually discussed in the context of world population, though it may also concern regions. Human population growth has increased in recent centuries due to medical advancements and improved agricultural productivity. Those concerned by this trend argue that it results in a level of resource consumption which exceeds the environment's carrying capacity, leading to population overshoot. The concept is often discussed in relation to other population concerns such as demographic push and depopulation, as well as in relation to resource depletion and the human impact on the environment.

Epidemiological transition

In demography and medical geography, epidemiological transition is a theory which "describes changing population patterns in terms of fertility, life expectancy, mortality, and leading causes of death." For example, a phase of development marked by a sudden increase in population growth rates brought by improved food security and innovations in public health and medicine, can be followed by a re-leveling of population growth due to subsequent declines in fertility rates. Such a transition can account for the replacement of infectious diseases by chronic diseases over time due to increased life span as a result of improved health care and disease prevention. This theory was originally posited by Abdel Omran in 1971.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of Africa</span>

The population of Africa has grown rapidly over the past century and consequently shows a large youth bulge, further reinforced by a low life expectancy of below 50 years in some African countries. Total population as of 2020 is estimated at more than 1.3 billion, with a growth rate of more than 2.5% p.a. The total fertility rate for Sub-Saharan Africa is 4.7 as of 2018, the highest in the world according to the World Bank. The most populous African country is Nigeria with over 206 million inhabitants as of 2020 and a growth rate of 2.6% p.a.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">World population</span> Total number of living humans on Earth

In demographics, the term world population is often used to refer to the total number of humans currently living, and was estimated to have exceeded 7.9 billion as of November 2021. It took over two million years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach one billion and only 207 years more to grow to 7 billion.

Earth has a human population of 7.9 billion, with an overall population density of 50 people per km2, excluding Antarctica. Nearly 60% of the world's population lives in Asia, with almost 2.8 billion in the countries of China and India combined. The percentage share of India, China and rest of South Asia in world population have remained on similar levels for the last few thousands years of recorded history. The world's literacy rate has increased dramatically in the last 40 years, from 66.7% in 1979 to 86.3% today. Lower literacy levels are mostly attributable to poverty. Lower literacy rates are mostly found in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The world's largest ethnic group is Han Chinese, with Mandarin being the world's most spoken language in terms of native speakers.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Projections of population growth</span> World population growth projections

Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future. These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. Models of population growth take trends in human development, and apply projections into the future. These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth.

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