Human Development Index

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World map of countries and territories by HDI scores in increments of 0.050 (based on 2022 data, published in 2024)
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>= 0.950
0.900-0.950
0.850-0.899
0.800-0.849
0.750-0.799
0.700-0.749
0.650-0.699
0.600-0.649
0.550-0.599
0.500-0.549
0.450-0.499
0.400-0.449
<= 0.399
Data unavailable HDI2022Incrimental.svg
World map of countries and territories by HDI scores in increments of 0.050 (based on 2022 data, published in 2024)
  •   ≥ 0.950
  •   0.900–0.950
  •   0.850–0.899
  •   0.800–0.849
  •   0.750–0.799
  •   0.700–0.749
  •   0.650–0.699
  •   0.600–0.649
  •   0.550–0.599
  •   0.500–0.549
  •   0.450–0.499
  •   0.400–0.449
  •   ≤ 0.399
  •   Data unavailable

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistical composite index of life expectancy, education (mean years of schooling completed and expected years of schooling upon entering the education system), and per capita income indicators, which is used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country scores a higher level of HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the gross national income GNI (PPP) per capita is higher. It was developed by Pakistani economist Mahbub ul-Haq and was further used to measure a country's development by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)'s Human Development Report Office. [1] [2] [3] [4]

Contents

The 2010 Human Development Report introduced an inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI). While the simple HDI remains useful, it stated that "the IHDI is the actual level of human development (accounting for this inequality), while the HDI can be viewed as an index of 'potential' human development (or the maximum level of HDI) that could be achieved if there was no inequality." [5]

The index is based on the human development approach, developed by Mahbub ul-Haq, anchored in Amartya Sen's work on human capabilities, and often framed in terms of whether people are able to "be" and "do" desirable things in life. Examples include — being: well-fed, sheltered, and healthy; doing: work, education, voting, participating in community life. The freedom of choice is considered central — someone choosing to be hungry (e.g. when fasting for religious reasons) is considered different from someone who is hungry because they cannot afford to buy food, or because the country is going through a famine. [6]

The index does not take into account several factors, such as the net wealth per capita or the relative quality of goods in a country. This situation tends to lower the ranking of some of the most developed countries, such as the G7 members and others. [7]

Origins

The origins of the HDI are found in the annual Human Development Reports produced by the Human Development Report Office of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). These annual reports were devised and launched by Pakistani economist Mahbub ul-Haq in 1990, and had the explicit purpose "to shift the focus of development economics from national income accounting to people-centered policies". He believed that a simple composite measure of human development was needed to convince the public, academics and politicians that they can, and should, evaluate development not only by economic advances but also improvements in human well-being.

The underlying principle behind the Human Development Index Human Development Index Underlying Principles.svg
The underlying principle behind the Human Development Index


Dimensions and calculation

New method (2010 HDI onwards)

HDI trends between 1990 and 2021
World
OECD countries
Developing countries:
Arab States
East Asia and the Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa Human Development Index regions evolution 1990-2021-fr.svg
HDI trends between 1990 and 2021
   World
   OECD countries
Developing countries:
   East Asia and the Pacific
   Latin America and the Caribbean

Published on 4 November 2010 (and updated on 10 June 2011), the 2010 Human Development Report calculated the HDI combining three dimensions: [8] [9]

In its 2010 Human Development Report, the UNDP began using a new method of calculating the HDI. The following three indices are used:

1. Life Expectancy Index (LEI)

LEI is equal to 1 when life expectancy at birth is 85 years, and 0 when life expectancy at birth is 20 years.

2. Education Index (EI) [10]

2.1 Mean Years of Schooling Index (MYSI) [11]
Fifteen is the projected maximum of this indicator for 2025.
2.2 Expected Years of Schooling Index (EYSI) [12]
Eighteen is equivalent to achieving a master's degree in most countries.

3. Income Index (II)

II is 1 when GNI per capita is $75,000 and 0 when GNI per capita is $100.

Finally, the HDI is the geometric mean of the previous three normalized indices:

LE: Life expectancy at birth
MYS: Mean years of schooling (i.e. years that a person aged 25 or older has spent in formal education)
EYS: Expected years of schooling (i.e. total expected years of schooling for children under 18 years of age, incl. young men and women aged 13–17)
GNIpc: Gross national income at purchasing power parity per capita

Old method (HDI before 2010)

The HDI combined three dimensions last used in its 2009 report:

HDI trends between 1975 and 2004
OECD
Europe (not in the OECD), and CIS
Latin America and the Caribbean
East Asia
Arab League
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa Human Development Index trends.svg
HDI trends between 1975 and 2004
   OECD
   Europe (not in the OECD), and CIS
   Latin America and the Caribbean
   East Asia

This methodology was used by the UNDP until their 2011 report.

The formula defining the HDI is promulgated by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). [13] In general, to transform a raw variable, say , into a unit-free index between 0 and 1 (which allows different indices to be added together), the following formula is used:

where and are the lowest and highest values the variable can attain, respectively.

The Human Development Index (HDI) then represents the uniformly weighted sum with 13 contributed by each of the following factor indices:


2022 Human Development Index (2024 report)

Average annual HDI growth from 2010 to 2021 (published in 2022)
>= 1.4%
1.2%...1.4%
1%...1.2%
0.8%...1%
0.6%...0.8%
0.4%...0.6%
0.2%...0.4%
0%...0.2%
-0.5%...0%
-1%...-0.5%
< -1%
No data Average annual HDI growth from 2010 to 2021 published in 2022.png
Average annual HDI growth from 2010 to 2021 (published in 2022)
  •   ≥ 1.4%
  •   1.2%…1.4%
  •   1%…1.2%
  •   0.8%…1%
  •   0.6%…0.8%
  •   0.4%…0.6%
  •   0.2%…0.4%
  •   0%…0.2%
  •   −0.5%…0%
  •   −1%…−0.5%
  •   < −1%
  •   No data

The Human Development Report 2023/24 by the United Nations Development Programme was released on 13 March 2024; the report calculates HDI values based on data collected in 2022.

Ranked from 1 to 69 in the year 2022, the following countries are considered to be of "very high human development": [14]

Table of countries by HDI
RankNationHDI
2022 data (2024 report)Change since 20152022 data (2024 report) [14] Average annual growth (2010–2022)
1Steady2.svgFlag of Switzerland (Pantone).svg   Switzerland 0.967Increase2.svg 0.24%
2Decrease2.svg (1)Flag of Norway.svg  Norway 0.966Increase2.svg 0.25%
3Steady2.svgFlag of Iceland.svg  Iceland 0.959Increase2.svg 0.28%
4Increase2.svg (2)Flag of Hong Kong.svg  Hong Kong 0.956Increase2.svg 0.38%
5Increase2.svg (1)Flag of Denmark.svg  Denmark 0.952Increase2.svg 0.35%
Steady2.svgFlag of Sweden.svg  Sweden Increase2.svg 0.38%
7Increase2.svg (8)Flag of Ireland.svg  Ireland 0.950Increase2.svg 0.38%
Decrease2.svg (3)Flag of Germany.svg  Germany Increase2.svg 0.19%
9Decrease2.svg (1)Flag of Singapore.svg  Singapore 0.949Increase2.svg 0.25%
10Increase2.svg (1)Flag of the Netherlands.svg  Netherlands 0.946Increase2.svg 0.26%
Decrease2.svg (1)Flag of Australia (converted).svg  Australia Increase2.svg 0.20%
12Increase2.svg (2)Flag of Liechtenstein.svg  Liechtenstein 0.942Increase2.svg 0.23%
Increase2.svg (3)Flag of Belgium (civil).svg  Belgium Increase2.svg 0.26%
Steady2.svgFlag of Finland.svg  Finland Increase2.svg 0.27%
15Increase2.svg (3)Flag of the United Kingdom.svg  United Kingdom 0.940Increase2.svg 0.24%
16Decrease2.svg (7)Flag of New Zealand.svg  New Zealand 0.939Increase2.svg 0.13%
17Increase2.svg (19)Flag of the United Arab Emirates.svg  United Arab Emirates 0.937Increase2.svg 1.04%
18Decrease2.svg (5)Flag of Canada (Pantone).svg  Canada 0.935Increase2.svg 0.22%
19Increase2.svg (3)Flag of South Korea.svg  South Korea 0.929Increase2.svg 0.36%
20Decrease2.svg (5)Flag of the United States.svg  United States 0.927Increase2.svg 0.10%
Decrease2.svg (1)Flag of Luxembourg.svg  Luxembourg Increase2.svg 0.14%
22Increase2.svg (1)Flag of Slovenia.svg  Slovenia 0.926Increase2.svg 0.33%
Decrease2.svg (1)Flag of Austria.svg  Austria Increase2.svg 0.21%
24Decrease2.svg (4)Flag of Japan.svg  Japan 0.920Increase2.svg 0.16%
25Decrease2.svg (1)Flag of Israel.svg  Israel 0.915Increase2.svg 0.26%
Increase2.svg (3)Flag of Malta.svg  Malta Increase2.svg 0.50%
27Steady2.svgFlag of Spain.svg  Spain 0.911Increase2.svg 0.40%
28Decrease2.svg (3)Flag of France.svg  France 0.910Increase2.svg 0.28%
29Increase2.svg (3)Flag of Cyprus.svg  Cyprus 0.907Increase2.svg 0.45%
30Steady2.svgFlag of Italy.svg  Italy 0.906Increase2.svg 0.24%
31Decrease2.svg (2)Flag of Estonia.svg  Estonia 0.899Increase2.svg 0.33%
32Decrease2.svg (6)Flag of the Czech Republic.svg  Czechia 0.895Increase2.svg 0.22%
33Decrease2.svg (3)Flag of Greece.svg  Greece 0.893Increase2.svg 0.18%
34Increase2.svg (3)Flag of Bahrain.svg  Bahrain 0.888Increase2.svg 0.80%
35Increase2.svg (3)Flag of Andorra.svg  Andorra 0.884Increase2.svg 0.20%
36Decrease2.svg (2)Flag of Poland.svg  Poland 0.881Increase2.svg 0.35%
37Increase2.svg (2)Flag of Latvia.svg  Latvia 0.879Increase2.svg 0.51%
Decrease2.svg (2)Flag of Lithuania.svg  Lithuania Increase2.svg 0.32%
39Increase2.svg (6)Flag of Croatia.svg  Croatia 0.878Increase2.svg 0.53%
40Steady2.svgFlag of Qatar.svg  Qatar 0.875Increase2.svg 0.45%
Increase2.svg (6)Flag of Saudi Arabia.svg  Saudi Arabia Increase2.svg 0.70%
42Steady2.svgFlag of Portugal.svg  Portugal 0.874Increase2.svg 0.42%
43Decrease2.svg (10)Flag of San Marino.svg  San Marino 0.867Decrease2.svg 0.32%
44Steady2.svgFlag of Chile.svg  Chile 0.860Increase2.svg 0.47%
45Increase2.svg (9)Flag of Turkey.svg  Turkey 0.855Increase2.svg 1.10%
Decrease2.svg (5)Flag of Slovakia.svg  Slovakia Increase2.svg 0.14%
47Steady2.svgFlag of Hungary.svg  Hungary 0.851Increase2.svg 0.22%
48Decrease2.svg (6)Flag of Argentina.svg  Argentina 0.849Increase2.svg 0.15%
49Steady2.svgFlag of Kuwait.svg  Kuwait 0.847Increase2.svg 0.36%
50Increase2.svg (1)Flag of Montenegro.svg  Montenegro 0.844Increase2.svg 0.38%
51Decrease2.svg (2)Flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis.svg  Saint Kitts and Nevis 0.838Increase2.svg 0.49%
52Increase2.svg (8)Flag of Uruguay.svg  Uruguay 0.830Increase2.svg 0.47%
53Increase2.svg (3)Flag of Romania.svg  Romania 0.827Increase2.svg 0.14%
54Increase2.svg (1)Flag of Antigua and Barbuda.svg  Antigua and Barbuda 0.826Increase2.svg 0.18%
55Decrease2.svg (7)Flag of Brunei.svg  Brunei 0.823Decrease2.svg 0.02%
56Decrease2.svg (3)Flag of Russia.svg  Russia 0.821Increase2.svg 0.25%
57Increase2.svg (3)Flag of the Bahamas.svg  Bahamas 0.820Increase2.svg 0.21%
Increase2.svg (5)Flag of Panama.svg  Panama Increase2.svg 0.47%
59Decrease2.svg (7)Flag of Oman.svg  Oman 0.819Increase2.svg 0.22%
60Decrease2.svg (3)Flag of Trinidad and Tobago.svg  Trinidad and Tobago 0.814Increase2.svg 0.30%
Increase2.svg (4)Flag of Georgia.svg  Georgia Increase2.svg 0.54%
62Increase2.svg (2)Flag of Barbados.svg  Barbados 0.809Increase2.svg 0.18%
63Increase2.svg (6)Flag of Malaysia.svg  Malaysia 0.807Increase2.svg 0.41%
64Increase2.svg (5)Flag of Costa Rica.svg  Costa Rica 0.806Increase2.svg 0.39%
65Increase2.svg (3)Flag of Serbia.svg  Serbia 0.805Increase2.svg 0.39%
66Increase2.svg (6)Flag of Thailand.svg  Thailand 0.803Increase2.svg 0.65%
67Decrease2.svg (1)Flag of Seychelles.svg  Seychelles 0.802Increase2.svg 0.30%
Decrease2.svg (4)Flag of Kazakhstan.svg  Kazakhstan Increase2.svg 0.38%
69Decrease2.svg (11)Flag of Belarus.svg  Belarus 0.801Increase2.svg 0.12%

Past top countries

The list below displays the top-ranked country from each year of the Human Development Index. Norway has been ranked the highest sixteen times, Canada eight times, and Switzerland, Japan, and Iceland have each ranked twice.

In each original HDI

The year represents the time period from which the statistics for the index were derived. In parentheses is the year when the report was published.


Geographical coverage

The HDI has extended its geographical coverage: David Hastings, of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, published a report geographically extending the HDI to 230+ economies, whereas the UNDP HDI for 2009 enumerates 182 economies and coverage for the 2010 HDI dropped to 169 countries. [15] [16]

Country/region specific HDI lists

Criticism

HDI in relation to consumption-based
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CO2 emissions per capita Per-capita-co-emissions-vs-human-development-index.svg
HDI in relation to consumption-based CO2 emissions per capita

The Human Development Index has been criticized on a number of grounds, including focusing exclusively on national performance and ranking, lack of attention to development from a global perspective, measurement error of the underlying statistics, and on the UNDP's changes in formula which can lead to severe misclassification of "low", "medium", "high" or "very high" human development countries. [17]

There have also been various criticism towards the lack of consideration regarding sustainability [18] (which later got addressed by the planetary pressures-adjusted HDI), social inequality [19] (which got addressed by the inequality-adjusted HDI), unemployment [20] or democracy. [20]

Sources of data error

Economists Hendrik Wolff, Howard Chong and Maximilian Auffhammer discuss the HDI from the perspective of data error in the underlying health, education and income statistics used to construct the HDI. They have identified three sources of data error which are: (i) data updating, (ii) formula revisions and (iii) thresholds to classify a country's development status. They conclude that 11%, 21% and 34% of all countries can be interpreted as currently misclassified in the development bins due to the three sources of data error, respectively. Wolff, Chong and Auffhammer suggest that the United Nations should discontinue the practice of classifying countries into development bins because the cut-off values seem arbitrary, and the classifications can provide incentives for strategic behavior in reporting official statistics, as well as having the potential to misguide politicians, investors, charity donors and the public who use the HDI at large. [17]

In 2010, the UNDP reacted to the criticism by updating the thresholds to classify nations as low, medium, and high human development countries. In a comment to The Economist in early January 2011, the Human Development Report Office responded [21] to an article published in the magazine on 6 January 2011 [22] which discusses the Wolff et al. paper. The Human Development Report Office states that they undertook a systematic revision of the methods used for the calculation of the HDI, and that the new methodology directly addresses the critique by Wolff et al. in that it generates a system for continuously updating the human-development categories whenever formula or data revisions take place.

In 2013, Salvatore Monni and Alessandro Spaventa emphasized that in the debate of GDP versus HDI, it is often forgotten that these are both external indicators that prioritize different benchmarks upon which the quantification of societal welfare can be predicated. The larger question is whether it is possible to shift the focus of policy from a battle between competing paradigms to a mechanism for eliciting information on well-being directly from the population. [23]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Geometric mean</span> N-th root of the product of n numbers

In mathematics, the geometric mean is a mean or average which indicates a central tendency of a finite collection of positive real numbers by using the product of their values. The geometric mean of numbers is the nth root of their product, i.e., for a collection of numbers a1, a2, ..., an, the geometric mean is defined as

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Developed country</span> Country with a developed economy and infrastructure

A developed country, or advanced country, is a sovereign state that has a high quality of life, developed economy, and advanced technological infrastructure relative to other less industrialized nations. Most commonly, the criteria for evaluating the degree of economic development are the gross domestic product (GDP), gross national product (GNP), the per capita income, level of industrialization, amount of widespread infrastructure and general standard of living. Which criteria are to be used and which countries can be classified as being developed are subjects of debate. Different definitions of developed countries are provided by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank; moreover, HDI ranking is used to reflect the composite index of life expectancy, education, and income per capita. In 2023, 40 countries fit all four criteria, while an additional 19 countries fit three out of four.

Gross enrolment ratio (GER) or gross enrolment index (GEI) is a statistical measure used in the education sector, and formerly by the UN in its Education Index, to determine the number of students enrolled in school at several different grade levels, and use it to show the ratio of the number of students who live in that country to those who qualify for the particular grade level. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), describes "Gross Enrolment Ratio" as the total enrolment within a country "in a specific level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population in the official age group corresponding to this level of education".

The Human Poverty Index (HPI) was an indication of the poverty of community in a country, developed by the United Nations to complement the Human Development Index (HDI) and was first reported as part of the Human Development Report in 1997. It is developed by United Nations Development Program which also publishes indexes like HDI It was considered to better reflect the extent of deprivation in deprived countries compared to the HDI. In 2010, it was supplanted by the UN's Multidimensional Poverty Index.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Human Development Report</span> Annual report by the Human Development Report Office of the United Nations Development Programme

The Human Development Report (HDR) is an annual Human Development Index report published by the Human Development Report Office of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

The Gender Development Index (GDI) is an index designed to measure gender equality.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Education Index</span> Component of the Human Development Index

The Education Index is a component of the Human Development Index (HDI) published every year by the United Nations Development Programme. Alongside the economical indicators (GDP) and Life Expectancy Index, it helps measure the educational attainment. GNI (PPP) per capita and life expectancy are also used with the education index to get the HDI of each country.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Multidimensional Poverty Index</span> Range of poverty indicators

Multidimensional Poverty Indices uses a range of indicators to calculate a summary poverty figure for a given population, in which a larger figure indicates a higher level of poverty. This figure considers both the proportion of the population that is deemed poor and the 'breadth' of poverty experienced by these 'poor' households, following the Alkire & Foster 'counting method'. The method was developed following increased criticism of monetary and consumption-based poverty measures, seeking to capture the deprivations in non-monetary factors that contribute towards well-being. While there is a standard set of indicators, dimensions, cutoffs and thresholds used for a 'Global MPI', the method is flexible and there are many examples of poverty studies that modify it to best suit their environment. The methodology has been mainly, but not exclusively, applied to developing countries.

References

  1. A. Stanton, Elizabeth (February 2007). "The Human Development Index: A History". PERI Working Papers. ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst: 14–15. Archived from the original on 28 February 2019. Retrieved 28 February 2019.
  2. "Human Development Index". Definition of 'Human Development Index'. Archived from the original on 1 December 2017. Retrieved 29 November 2017.
  3. "About Human Development". HDR. UNDP. Archived from the original on 15 April 2012. Retrieved 29 July 2011.
  4. "Human development index". World Health Organization. Archived from the original on 3 January 2022. Retrieved 26 June 2024.
  5. "Composite indices — HDI and beyond". Human Development Reports. Archived from the original on 10 August 2016. Retrieved 16 January 2021.
  6. 1 2 "What is Human Development". HDR. UNDP. 19 February 2015. Archived from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017. ... human development approach, developed by the economist Mahbub Ul Haq ...
  7. The Courier. Commission of the European Communities. 1994.
  8. Nations, United (4 November 2010). "Human Development Report 2010". UNDP. Archived from the original on 22 December 2015. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  9. "Technical notes" (PDF). UNDP. 2013. Archived (PDF) from the original on 16 June 2015. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  10. "New method of calculation of Human Development Index (HDI)". India Study Channel. 1 June 2011. Archived from the original on 10 November 2017. Retrieved 19 November 2017.
  11. Mean years of schooling (of adults) (years) is a calculation of the average number of years of education received by people ages 25 and older in their lifetime based on education attainment levels of the population converted into years of schooling based on theoretical duration of each level of education attended. Source: Barro, R. J.; Lee, J.-W. (2010). "A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010". NBER Working Paper No. 15902. Working Paper Series. doi: 10.3386/w15902 . Archived from the original on 7 August 2011. Retrieved 29 July 2011.
  12. (ESYI is a calculation of the number of years a child is expected to attend school, or university, including the years spent on repetition. It is the sum of the age-specific enrollment ratios for primary, secondary, post-secondary non-tertiary and tertiary education and is calculated assuming the prevailing patterns of age-specific enrollment rates were to stay the same throughout the child's life. Expected years of schooling is capped at 18 years. (Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2010). Correspondence on education indicators. March. Montreal.)
  13. "Definition, Calculator, etc. at UNDP site". Archived from the original on 20 December 2007. Retrieved 26 May 2020.
  14. 1 2 Human Development Report 2023-24: Breaking the gridlock: Reimagining cooperation in a polarized world. United Nations Development Programme. 13 March 2024. Retrieved 16 March 2024.
  15. Hastings, David A. (2009). "Filling Gaps in the Human Development Index". United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Working Paper WP/09/02. Archived from the original on 30 April 2011. Retrieved 1 December 2009.
  16. Hastings, David A. (2011). "A "Classic" Human Development Index with 232 Countries". HumanSecurityIndex.org. Archived from the original on 3 May 2011. Retrieved 9 March 2011. Information Note linked to data
  17. 1 2 Wolff, Hendrik; Chong, Howard; Auffhammer, Maximilian (2011). "Classification, Detection and Consequences of Data Error: Evidence from the Human Development Index". Economic Journal. 121 (553): 843–870. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02408.x. hdl: 1813/71597 . ISSN   0013-0133. S2CID   18069132. Archived from the original on 8 August 2020. Retrieved 13 July 2019.
  18. WWF, WWF. "Living Planet Report 2014" (PDF). Living Planet Report . 2014: 60–62.
  19. Harttgen, Kenneth; Klasen, Stephan (1 May 2012). "A Household-Based Human Development Index". World Development. 40 (5): 878–899. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.09.011. hdl: 10419/37505 . ISSN   0305-750X.
  20. 1 2 Leiwakabessy, Erly; Amaluddin, Amaluddin (2 May 2020). "A Modified Human Development Index, Democracy And Economic Growth In Indonesia". Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews. 8 (2): 732–743. doi: 10.18510/hssr.2020.8282 . ISSN   2395-6518.
  21. "UNDP Human Development Report Office's comments". The Economist. January 2011. Archived from the original on 11 February 2011. Retrieved 12 January 2011.
  22. "The Economist (pages 60–61 in the issue of Jan 8, 2011)". 6 January 2011. Archived from the original on 13 January 2011. Retrieved 12 January 2011.
  23. Monni, Salvatore; Spaventa, Alessandro (2013). "Beyond Gdp and HDI: Shifting the focus from Paradigms to Politics". Development. 56 (2): 227–231. doi:10.1057/dev.2013.30. S2CID   84722678.