List of countries by past and projected future population

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Population of the present-day top seven most-populous countries, 1800 to 2100. Future projections are based on the 2024 UN's medium-fertility scenario. Chart created by Our World In Data in 2024. 2024 Our World In Data Population, 1800 to 2100 chart with future projections based on UN's medium-fertility scenario.png
Population of the present-day top seven most-populous countries, 1800 to 2100. Future projections are based on the 2024 UN's medium-fertility scenario. Chart created by Our World In Data in 2024.

The following is a list of countries by past and projected future population.

Contents

Overview

All the figures shown here have been sourced from the International Database (IDB) Division of the United States Census Bureau. Every individual value has been rounded to the nearest thousand, to assure data coherence, particularly when adding up (sub)totals. Although data from specific statistical offices may be more accurate, the information provided here has the advantage of being homogeneous.

Population estimates, as long as they are based on recent censuses, can be more easily projected into the near future than many macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, which are much more sensitive to political and/or economic crises. This means that demographic estimates for the next five (or even ten) years can be more accurate than the projected evolution of GDP over the same time period (which may also be distorted by inflation).

However, no projected population figures can be considered exact. As the IDB states, "figures beyond the years 2020–2025 should be taken with caution", as the "census way towards those years has yet to be paved". Thus projections can be said to be looking through a kind of "cloudy glass" [1] or a "misty window": realistically, the projections are "guesstimates".

To make matters more complicated, not all countries carry out censuses regularly, especially some of the poorer, faster-growing sub-Saharan African nations (whose evolution may be more interesting, from a demographer's point of view, than the "stagnated" populations of countries like Germany or Italy). The populations of many of these countries, as well as other primarily conservative, Islamic nations like Egypt, Iraq, and Pakistan, are growing much faster due to their high fertility rates than in the aging European nations or Japan.

On the other hand, some other countries, like the small Asian state of Bhutan, have only recently had a thorough census for the first time: In Bhutan's case in particular, before its national 2005 population survey, [2] [3] [4] the IDB estimated its population at over 2 million; this was drastically reduced when the new census results proved to be 672,000.

Further, the IDB usually takes some time before including new data, as happened in the case of Indonesia. That country was reported by the IDB to have an inflated population of some 242 million by mid-2005, because it had not still processed the final results of the 2000 Indonesian census. [5] [6] [7] [8] There was a similar discrepancy with the relatively recent Ethiopian 2007 census, [9] [10] which gave a preliminary result of "only" 73,918,505 inhabitants.

The largest absolute potential discrepancies are naturally related to the most populous nations. However, smaller states, such as Tuvalu, can have large relative discrepancies. For instance, the 2002 census in that Oceanian island, which gave a final population of 9,561 [11] shows that IDB estimates can be significantly off.

Preliminary notes

The national 1 July, mid-year population estimates (usually based on past national censuses) supplied in these tables are given in thousands.

The retrospective figures use the present-day names and world political division: for example, the table gives data for each of the 15 republics of the former Soviet Union, as if they had already been independent in 1950. The opposite is the case for Germany, which had been divided since the end of the Second World War but was reunified on October 3, 1990.

Other issues concerning some countries or territories are as follows:

Finally, the Eastern and Western Europe subtotals follow the former Cold War's Iron Curtain division of Europe.

Formulas used to calculate demographic growth

To the right of each year column (except for the initial 1950 one), a percentage figure is shown, which gives the average annual growth for the previous five-year period. Thus, the figures after the 1960 column show the percentage annual growth for the 1955-60 period; the figures after the 1980 column calculate the same value for 1975–80; and so on.

The formulas used for the annual growth rates are the standard ones, used both by the United Nations Statistics Division and by National Census Offices worldwide. They are compound growth rates, and have the general form:

where and stand for the initial and final population, respectively, within a stated time period. Similarly and are the dates of the initial and final years.

In the calculations shown here, all periods are of five years, so  yi + 5 = yf  and the formula simplifies to:

.

UN Forecast 2024

Below is a list of countries and regions of the world with their projected population, as estimated by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, as of July 11, 2022. The Medium variant of the forecast for July 1, 2024, July 1, 2030, July 1, 2050 and July 1, 2100 is given. [12] [13]

Estimates between the years 1950 and 1980 (in thousands)

Estimates between the years 1985 and 2015 (in thousands)

Estimates between the years 2020 and 2050 (in thousands)

Source

See also

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In demographics, an intercensal estimate is an estimate of population between official census dates with both of the census counts being known. Some nations produce regular intercensal estimates while others do not. Intercensal estimates can be less or more informative than official census figures, depending on methodology, completeness, accuracy and date of data, and can be released by nations, subnational entities, or other organizations including those not affiliated with governments. They differ from population projections as they are from past dates, although intercensal estimates can be used to form population projections.

The racial and ethnic demographics of the United States have changed dramatically throughout its history.

US Census Bureau International Data Base (IDB) is a global demographic product created by the United States Census Bureau. The U.S. Census Bureau has been preparing estimates and projections of the populations of foreign countries since the 1960s for a number of reasons. In the 1980s, the Census Bureau released its first comprehensive set of estimates and projections for over 200 countries and areas of the world. Since then, the Census Bureau periodically updates estimates and projections for countries as new data become available, funding permits, and conditions warrant. IDB estimates and projections are produced for those countries and areas recognized by the U.S. Department of State which have populations of 5,000 or more. The statistics are maintained for every year from 1950 until the present plus have future projections until 2050. Population size and components of change are provided for each calendar year beyond the initial or base year, through 2050.

References

  1. ↑ Britannica Book of the year 2003, Encyclopædia Britannica Publishers, Chicago, 2002, page 779.
  2. ↑ Bhutan on the CityPopulation website.
  3. ↑ Bhutan on www.geohive.com
  4. ↑ Bhutan on Statoids.com
  5. ↑ 1971, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Indonesian censuses (and 1995 intercensus count), on the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS, Statistics Indonesia) website.
  6. ↑ Indonesia on CityPopulation.
  7. ↑ Indonesia on GeoHive.com Archived 2009-10-15 at the Wayback Machine
  8. ↑ Indonesia on Statoids
  9. ↑ Ethiopia on CityPopulation
  10. ↑ Ethiopia on GeoHive Archived 2012-08-05 at the Wayback Machine
  11. ↑ Central Statistics Division - Government of Tuvalu - Census of Population and Housing and sample Surveys, on the Pacific Regional Information System (PRISM), within the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) website.
  12. ↑ "Compact (most used: estimates and medium projections) (XLSX, 24.07 MB)". 2022. Archived from the original on 2023-10-07. Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  13. ↑ "World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations". Archived from the original on 2023-12-05. Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  14. ↑ "International Data Base". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved 2021-05-19.
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