Population ageing

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Population pyramid of China (2018) China population pyramid (2018).jpg
Population pyramid of China (2018)

Population ageing is an increasing median age in a population because of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Most countries have rising life expectancy and an ageing population, trends that emerged first in developed countries but are now seen in virtually all developing countries. That is the case for every country in the world except the 18 countries designated as "demographic outliers" by the United Nations. [1] [ failed verification ] The aged population is currently at its highest level in human history. [2] The UN predicts the rate of population ageing in the 21st century will exceed that of the previous century. [2] The number of people aged 60 years and over has tripled since 1950 and reached 600 million in 2000 and surpassed 700 million in 2006. It is projected that the combined senior and geriatric population will reach 2.1 billion by 2050. [3] [4] Countries vary significantly in terms of the degree and pace of ageing, and the UN expects populations that began ageing later will have less time to adapt to its implications. [2]

Contents

Overview

Population ageing is a shift in the distribution of a country's population towards older ages and is usually reflected in an increase in the population's mean and median ages, a decline in the proportion of the population composed of children, and a rise in the proportion of the population composed of the elderly. Population ageing is widespread across the world and is most advanced in the most highly developed countries, but it is growing faster in less developed regions, which means that older persons will be increasingly concentrated in the less developed regions of the world. [5] The Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, however, concluded that population ageing has slowed considerably in Europe and will have the greatest future impact in Asia, especially since Asia is in stage five (very low birth rate and low death rate) of the demographic transition model. [6]

Among the countries currently classified by the United Nations as more developed (with a total population of 1.2 billion in 2005), the overall median age rose from 28 in 1950 to 40 in 2010 and is forecast to rise to 44 by 2050. The corresponding figures for the world as a whole are 24 in 1950, 29 in 2010, and 36 in 2050. For the less developed regions, the median age will go from 26 in 2010 to 35 in 2050. [7]

Population ageing arises from two possibly-related demographic effects: increasing longevity and declining fertility. An increase in longevity raises the average age of the population by increasing the numbers of surviving older people. A decline in fertility reduces the number of babies, and as the effect continues, the numbers of younger people in general also reduce. Of the two forces, declining fertility now contributes to most of the population ageing in the world. [8] More specifically, the large decline in the overall fertility rate over the last half-century is primarily responsible for the population ageing in the world's most developed countries. Because many developing countries are going through faster fertility transitions, they will experience even faster population ageing than the currently-developed countries will.

The rate at which the population ages is likely to increase over the next three decades; [9] however, few countries know whether their older population are living the extra years of life in good or poor health. A "compression of morbidity" would imply reduced disability in old age, [10] but an expansion would see an increase in poor health with increased longevity. Another option has been posed for a situation of "dynamic equilibrium." [11] That is crucial information for governments if the limits of lifespan continue to increase indefinitely, as some researchers believe. [12] The World Health Organization's suite of household health studies is working to provide the needed health and well-being evidence, such as the World Health Survey, [13] and the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE). The surveys cover 308,000 respondents aged at least 18 and 81,000 aged at least 50 from 70 countries.

The Global Ageing Survey, exploring attitudes, expectations, and behaviours towards later life and retirement, directed by George Leeson, and covering 44,000 people aged 40–80 in 24 countries from across the globe, has revealed that many people are now fully aware of the ageing of the world's population and the implications that it will have on their lives and those of their children and grandchildren.

Canada has the highest per capita immigration rate in the world, partly to counter population ageing. The C. D. Howe Institute, a conservative think tank, has suggested that immigration cannot be used as a viable means to counter population ageing. [14] That conclusion is also seen in the work of other scholars. The demographers Peter McDonald and Rebecca Kippen commented, "As fertility sinks further below replacement level, increasingly higher levels of annual net migration will be required to maintain a target of even zero population growth." [15]

Around the world

The world's older population is growing dramatically. [16]

Percentage of world population over 65 Percentage of the World Population Over 65 - 1950-2050.png
Percentage of world population over 65
This map illustrates global trends in ageing by depicting the percentage of each country's population that is over the age of 65. The more developed countries also have older populations as their citizens live longer. Less developed countries have much younger populations. An interactive version of the map is available here. Percentage of Population Above 65 - 2005.png
This map illustrates global trends in ageing by depicting the percentage of each country's population that is over the age of 65. The more developed countries also have older populations as their citizens live longer. Less developed countries have much younger populations. An interactive version of the map is available here.

Asia and Africa are the two regions with a significant number of countries facing population ageing. Within 20 years, many countries in those regions will face a situation of the largest population cohort being those over 65 and the average age approaching 50. In 2100, according to research led by the University of Washington, 2.4 billion people will be over the age of 65, compared with 1.7 billion under the age of 20. [17] The Oxford Institute of Population Ageing is an institution looking at global population ageing. Its research reveals that many of the views of global ageing are based on myths and that there will be considerable opportunities for the world as its population matures, as the Institute's director, Professor Sarah Harper, highlighted in her book Ageing Societies.

Most of the developed countries now have sub-replacement fertility levels, and population growth now depends largely on immigration together with population momentum, which also arises from previous large generations now enjoying longer life expectancy.

Of the roughly 150,000 people who die each day across the globe, about two thirds, 100,000 per day, die of age-related causes. [18] In industrialised nations, that proportion is much higher and reaches 90%. [18]

Well-being and social policies

The economic effects of an ageing population are considerable. [19] Older people have higher accumulated savings per head than younger people but spend less on consumer goods. Depending on the age ranges at which the changes occur, an ageing population may thus result in lower interest rates and the economic benefits of lower inflation. Some economists[ who? ] in Japan see advantages in such changes, notably the opportunity to progress automation and technological development without causing unemployment, and emphasise a shift from GDP to personal well-being.

However, population ageing also increases some categories of expenditure, including some met from public finances. The largest area of expenditure in many countries is now health care, whose cost is likely to increase dramatically as populations age. This would present governments with hard choices between higher taxes, including a possible reweighing of tax from earnings to consumption and a reduced government role in providing health care. However, recent studies in some countries demonstrate the dramatic rising costs of health care are more attributable to rising drug and doctor costs and the higher use of diagnostic testing by all age groups, not to the ageing population that is often claimed. [20] [21] [22]

The second-largest expenditure of most governments is education, with expenses that tend to fall with an ageing population, especially as fewer young people would probably continue into tertiary education as they would be in demand as part of the work force.

Prevalence of dementia in OECD countries (per 1000 populations) Dementia Prevalence in OECD.svg
Prevalence of dementia in OECD countries (per 1000 populations)

Social security systems have also begun to experience problems. Earlier defined benefit pension systems are experiencing sustainability problems because of the increased longevity. The extension of the pension period was not paired with an extension of the active labour period or a rise in pension contributions, which has resulted in a decline of replacement ratios.

Population ageing also affects workforce. The older workers would spend more time on work and human capital of an ageing workforce is low, reducing labor productivity. [23]

The expectation of continuing population ageing prompts questions about welfare states' capacity to meet the needs of the population. In the early 2000s, the World Health Organization set up guidelines to encourage "active ageing" and to help local governments address the challenges of an ageing population (Global Age-Friendly Cities) with regard to urbanization, housing, transportation, social participation, health services, etc. [24] Local governments are well positioned to meet the needs of local, smaller populations, but as their resources vary from one to another (e.g. property taxes, the existence of community organizations), the greater responsibility on local governments is likely to increase inequalities. [25] [26] [27] In Canada, the most fortunate and healthier elders tend to live in more prosperous cities offering a wide range of services, but the less fortunate lack access to the same level of resources. [28] Private residences for the elderly also provide many services related to health and social participation (e.g. pharmacy, group activities, and events) on site, but they are not accessible to the less fortunate. [29] Also, the environmental gerontology indicates the importance of the environment in active ageing. [30] [31] [32] In fact, promoting good environments (natural, built, social) in ageing can improve health and quality of life and reduce the problems of disability and dependence, and, in general, social spending and health spending. [33]

An ageing population may provide incentive for technological progress, as some hypothesise the effect of a shrinking workforce may be offset by automation and productivity gains.

Generally in West Africa and specifically in Ghana, social policy implications of demographic ageing are multidimensional (such as rural-urban distribution, gender composition, levels of literacy/illiteracy as well as their occupational histories and income security). [4] Current policies on ageing in Ghana seem to be disjointed, and ideas on documents on to improve policies in population ageing have yet to be concretely implemented, [4] perhaps partly because of many arguments that older people are only a small proportion of the population [34]

Global ageing populations seem to cause many countries to be increasing the age for old age security from 60 to 65 to decrease the cost of the scheme of the GDP. [4] Age discrimination can be defined as "the systematic and institutionalized denial of the rights of older people on the basis of their age by individuals, groups, organisations, and institutions." [34] Some of the abuse can be a result of ignorance, thoughtlessness, prejudice, and stereotyping. Forms of discrimination are economic accessibility, social accessibility, temporal accessibility and administrative accessibility. [35]

In most countries worldwide, particularly countries in Africa, older people are typically the poorest members of the social spectrum and live below the poverty line.

See also

Related Research Articles

In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology, education and economic development, to low birth rates and low death rates in societies with advanced technology, education and economic development, as well as the stages between these two scenarios. In economic growth, the demographic transition has swept the world over the past two centuries, and the unprecedented population growth of the post-Malthusian period was reversed, reducing birth rates and population growth significantly in all regions of the world, and enabling economies to translate more of the gains of factor accumulation and technological progress into per capita income growth. The demographic transition strengthens economic growth process by three changes: (i) reduced dilution of capital and land stock, (ii) increased investment in human capital, and (iii) increased size of the labor force relative to the total population and changed age population distribution. Although this shift has occurred in many industrialized countries, the theory and model are frequently imprecise when applied to individual countries due to specific social, political and economic factors affecting particular populations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Gerontology</span> Study of the social, psychological and biological aspects of aging

Gerontology is the study of the social, cultural, psychological, cognitive, and biological aspects of aging. The word was coined by Ilya Ilyich Mechnikov in 1903, from the Greek γέρων (gérōn), meaning "old man", and -λογία (-logía), meaning "study of". The field is distinguished from geriatrics, which is the branch of medicine that specializes in the treatment of existing disease in older adults. Gerontologists include researchers and practitioners in the fields of biology, nursing, medicine, criminology, dentistry, social work, physical and occupational therapy, psychology, psychiatry, sociology, economics, political science, architecture, geography, pharmacy, public health, housing, and anthropology.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Birth rate</span> Total number of live births per 1,000 divided by time period

Birth rate, also known as natality, is the total number of live human births per 1,000 population for a given period divided by the length of the period in years. The number of live births is normally taken from a universal registration system for births; population counts from a census, and estimation through specialized demographic techniques. The birth rate is used to calculate population growth. The estimated average population may be taken as the mid-year population.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dependency ratio</span> Age-population ratio of those in the labor force to those not in the labor force

The dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically not in the labor force and those typically in the labor force. It is used to measure the pressure on the productive population.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Total fertility rate</span> Number of children a woman is expected to have barring select circumstances

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime if:

  1. they were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through their lifetime
  2. and they were to live from birth until the end of their reproductive life.
<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sub-replacement fertility</span> Total fertility rate that (if sustained) leads to each new generation being less populous

Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate (TFR) that leads to each new generation being less populous than the older, previous one in a given area. The United Nations Population Division defines sub-replacement fertility as any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman of childbearing age, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4 in some developing countries because of higher mortality rates. Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement was 2.33 children per woman in 2003. This can be "translated" as 2 children per woman to replace the parents, plus a "third of a child" to make up for the higher probability of males born and mortality prior to the end of a person's fertile life. In 2020, the average global fertility rate was around 2.4 children born per woman.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Epidemiological transition</span>

In demography and medical geography, epidemiological transition is a theory which "describes changing population patterns in terms of fertility, life expectancy, mortality, and leading causes of death." For example, a phase of development marked by a sudden increase in population growth rates brought by improved food security and innovations in public health and medicine, can be followed by a re-leveling of population growth due to subsequent declines in fertility rates. Such a transition can account for the replacement of infectious diseases by chronic diseases over time due to increased life span as a result of improved health care and disease prevention. This theory was originally posited by Abdel Omran in 1971.

Advanced maternal age, in a broad sense, is the instance of a woman being of an older age at a stage of reproduction, although there are various definitions of specific age and stage of reproduction. The variability in definitions is in part explained by the effects of increasing age occurring as a continuum rather than as a threshold effect.

Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), is "the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-age share of the population ". In other words, it is “a boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents”. UNFPA stated that “a country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Gerontological nursing</span> Specialty of nursing pertaining to older adults

Gerontological nursing is the specialty of nursing pertaining to older adults. Gerontological nurses work in collaboration with older adults, their families, and communities to support healthy aging, maximum functioning, and quality of life. The term gerontological nursing, which replaced the term geriatric nursing in the 1970s, is seen as being more consistent with the specialty's broader focus on health and wellness, in addition to illness.

Eileen M. Crimmins is the AARP Chair in Gerontology at the USC Davis School of Gerontology of the University of Southern California. Her work focuses on the connections between socioeconomic factors and life expectancy and other health outcomes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ageing of Europe</span> Overview of ageing in Europe

The ageing of Europe, also known as the greying of Europe, is a demographic phenomenon in Europe characterised by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate, and a higher life expectancy among European populations. Low birth rates and higher life expectancy contribute to the transformation of Europe's population pyramid shape. The most significant change is the transition towards a much older population structure, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of the working age while the number of the retired population increases. The total number of the older population is projected to increase greatly within the coming decades, with rising proportions of the post-war baby-boom generations reaching retirement. This will cause a high burden on the working age population as they provide for the increasing number of the older population.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Aging of Japan</span> Demographic transition of Japan that commenced in 1888

Japan has the highest proportion of elderly citizens of any country in the world. 2014 estimates showed that about 38% of the Japanese population was above the age of 60, and 25.9% was above the age of 65, a figure that increased to 29.1% by 2022. By 2050, an estimated one-third of the population in Japan is expected to be 65 and older.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ageing</span> Biological process of getting older

Ageing is the process of becoming older. The term refers mainly to humans, many other animals, and fungi, whereas for example, bacteria, perennial plants and some simple animals are potentially biologically immortal. In a broader sense, ageing can refer to single cells within an organism which have ceased dividing, or to the population of a species.

In demography, replacement migration is a theory of migration needed for a region to achieve a particular objective. Generally, studies using this concept have as an objective to avoid the decline of total population and the decline of the working-age population.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of the world</span> Global human population statistics

Earth has a human population of over 8 billion as of 2024, with an overall population density of 50 people per km2. Nearly 60% of the world's population lives in Asia, with almost 2.8 billion in the countries of China and India combined. The percentage shares of China, India and rest of South Asia of the world population have remained at similar levels for the last few thousand years of recorded history. The world's literacy rate has increased dramatically in the last 40 years, from 66.7% in 1979 to 86.3% today. Lower literacy levels are mostly attributable to poverty. Lower literacy rates are found mostly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Projections of population growth</span> Estimated global human population

Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future. These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future. These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Alexandre Kalache</span> Medical epidemiologist (born 1945)

Alexandre Kalache is a medical epidemiologist specializing in the study of aging. Since 2012 he is President of the International Longevity Centre-Brazil and since 2015 co-President of the Global Alliance of International Longevity Centres (ILC-GA). He formerly directed the World Health Organization global ageing programme at its Geneva headquarters following an academic career largely at the Universities of London and Oxford in the United Kingdom. Kalache has researched, written and spoken in the field of ageing issues as an academic, an international civil servant and an advocate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Aging of Australia</span> Demographic phenomenon in Australia

Australia has an aging demographic. The proportion of the Australian population aged 65 and over was 15% in 2017, a trend which is expected to continue to grow. It is estimated that by 2057 older people will account for 22% of the Australian population which translates to 8.8 million people. This increase in elderly population is due to what is known as The Australian Baby Boom. This period refers to the post-war era in which total fertility rates (TFR) were approximately 3.0, resulting in 4.19 million births recorded. This number exceeded the number of births in Australia from the previous 20 years in which there were 1.63 million births, and the proceeding 20 years in when 2.56 million births were recorded. The baby boom children will be celebrating their 65th birthday between 2011 and 2030, the age which is referred to as elderly.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ageing of the United Kingdom</span> Ageing of the United Kingdom

The population of the United Kingdom is getting increasingly older, due to longer life expectancy and a sub-replacement fertility rate for little under 50 years. The society is expected to change as a result culturally and economically. By 2050, 1 in every 4 people is expected to be above the age of 65 and this will be more extreme in certain areas of the country.

References

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