Population momentum

Last updated

Population momentum is a consequence of the demographic transition. Population momentum explains why a population will continue to grow even if the fertility rate declines or continues to decline even if the fertility rate grows. Population momentum occurs because it is not only the number of children per woman that determine population growth, but also the number of women in reproductive age. Eventually, when the fertility rate reaches the replacement rate and the population size of women in the reproductive age bracket stabilizes, the population achieves equilibrium and population momentum comes to an end. Population momentum is defined as the ratio of the size of the population at that new equilibrium level to the size of the initial population. [1] Population momentum usually occurs in populations that are growing.

Contents

Example

Assume that a population has three generations: First (oldest), Second (child bearing), and Third (children). Further assume that this population has a fertility rate equal to four (4). That is, each generation is twice the size of the previous. If the population of the first generation is arbitrarily set at 100, the second is then 200, and the third is 400. The spreadsheet below shows the initial population in the first row.

Population momentum example
TimeGen 1Gen 2Gen 3Gen 4Gen 5Total populationFertility rate of
current fertile
cohort
0100 (old)200 (fertile)400 (children)7004
1dead200 (old)400 (fertile)400 (children)10002
2deaddead400 (old)400 (fertile)400 (children)12002

First note that the second and third generation of the initial population are each twice the size of the previous. The total of the initial population is 700 = 100 + 200 + 400.

Then assume that at the end of the third generation, fertility falls to replacement (for simplicity assume that to be two). Now take the population forward in time to the next generation, line two of the spreadsheet. The first generation dies, and the new generation, the fourth, is equal to the third (because now fertility is replacement). Repeat the process again to reach the fifth generation (line 3 in the spreadsheet). The fifth generation is again equal to the fourth and now the population’s three generations are equal, and the population has reached equilibrium.

The initial population has grown from 700 to 1,200 even though fertility dropped from four to replacement (two) at the end of the third generation. Population momentum carried the population to higher levels over the next two generations.

When China first introduced the one-child policy, population growth continued regardless. Even though the number of children born reduced dramatically, the sheer number of maturing youth was significant. In 1979 when the one-child policy entered into force, the number of people becoming adults was based on the number of births around the 1950s, not 1979. As a result, the Chinese population maintained the same momentum of increase as for the past 20 years. It is only now[ when? ] that the Chinese population has reached a somewhat stabilized population growth[ citation needed ].

Further steps to zero population growth

Population momentum impacts the immediate birth and death rates in the population that determine the natural rate of growth. However, for a population to have an absolute zero amount of natural growth, three things must occur.

1. Fertility rates must level off to the replacement rate (the net reproduction rate should be 1). If the fertility rate remains higher than the replacement rate, the population would continue to grow.

2. Mortality rate must stop declining, that is, it must remain constant.

3. Lastly, the age structure must adjust to the new rates of fertility and mortality. This last step takes the longest to complete. [2]

Implications

Population momentum has implications for population policy for a number of reasons.

1. With respect to high-fertility countries (for example in the developing world), a positive population momentum, meaning that the population is increasing, states that these countries will continue to grow despite large and rapid declines in fertility.

2. With respect to lowest-low fertility countries (for example in Europe), a negative population momentum implies that these countries may experience population decline even if they try to increase their rate of fertility to the replacement rate of 2.1. For example, some Eastern European countries show a population shrinkage even if their birth rates recovered to replacement level. Population momentum can become negative if the fertility rate is under replacement level for a long period of time.

3. Population momentum shows that replacement level fertility is a long-term concept rather than an indication of current population growth rates. Depending on the extant age structure, a fertility rate of two children per woman may correspond to short-term growth or decline. [3]

Calculation

Population pyramid of India showing the beginning of population momentum even though their birth rates have been declining since 1955 Population pyramid of India 2015.png
Population pyramid of India showing the beginning of population momentum even though their birth rates have been declining since 1955

To calculate population momentum for population A, a theoretical population is constructed in which the birth rate for population A immediately becomes replacement level. Under such conditions, the population will eventually stabilize into a stationary population, with no year-to-year changes in age-specific rates or in total population. The population momentum is calculated by dividing this final total population number by the starting population. [4] Momentum, Ω, can be expressed as:

In this equation, b is the crude birth rate while eo is the life expectancy at birth. Q is the total number of births per initial birth.

This equation is used to derive Q (total births per initial birth), r is the growth rate and μ is the unchanging population mean age at childbearing. Ro is the Net Reproduction Rate of the non-changing population. [5]

Causes

Population momentum is typically caused by a shift in the country's demographic transition. [1] When mortality rates drop, the young survive childhood and the aging population live longer. Fertility rates remain high, causing the overall population size to grow. [6] According to population momentum, even if high fertility rates were immediately replaced with replacement level fertility rates, the population would continue to grow due to the pre-childbearing population entering childbearing years. [1]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of the United Kingdom</span>

The population of the United Kingdom was estimated at 67,596,281 in 2022. It is the 21st most populated country in the world and has a population density of 279 people per square kilometre, with England having significantly greater density than Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Almost a third of the population lives in south east England, which is predominantly urban and suburban, with 8,866,180 people in the capital city, London, whose population density was 5,640 inhabitants per square kilometre (14,600/sq mi) in 2022.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demography</span> Science that deals with populations and their structures, statistically and theoretically

Demography is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition, and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.

In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates, as societies attain more technology, education and economic development. The demographic transition has occurred in most of the world over the past two centuries, bringing the unprecedented population growth of the post-Malthusian period, then reducing birth rates and population growth significantly in all regions of the world. The demographic transition strengthens economic growth process by three changes: (i) reduced dilution of capital and land stock, (ii) increased investment in human capital, and (iii) increased size of the labor force relative to the total population and changed age population distribution. Although this shift has occurred in many industrialized countries, the theory and model are frequently imprecise when applied to individual countries due to specific social, political and economic factors affecting particular populations.

A baby boom is a period marked by a significant increase of births. This demographic phenomenon is usually ascribed within certain geographical bounds of defined national and cultural populations. The cause of baby booms involves various fertility factors. The best-known baby boom occurred in the mid-twentieth century, sometimes considered to have started after the end of the Second World War, sometimes from the late 1945s, and ending in the 1960s. People born during this period are often called baby boomers.

Fertility in colloquial terms refers the ability to have offspring. In demographic contexts, fertility refers to the actual production of offspring, rather than the physical capability to reproduce, which is termed fecundity. The fertility rate is the average number of children born during an individual's lifetime. In medicine, fertility refers to the ability to have children, and infertility refers to difficulty in reproducing naturally. In general, infertility or subfertility in humans is defined as not being able to conceive a child after one year of unprotected sex. The antithesis of fertility is infertility, while the antithesis of fecundity is sterility.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Birth rate</span> Total number of live births per 1,000 divided by time period

Birth rate, also known as natality, is the total number of live human births per 1,000 population for a given period divided by the length of the period in years. The number of live births is normally taken from a universal registration system for births; population counts from a census, and estimation through specialized demographic techniques. The birth rate is used to calculate population growth. The estimated average population may be taken as the mid-year population.

Zero population growth, sometimes abbreviated ZPG, is a condition of demographic balance where the number of people in a specified population neither grows nor declines; that is, the number of births plus in-migrants equals the number of deaths plus out-migrants. ZPG has been a prominent political movement since the 1960s.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dependency ratio</span> Age-population ratio of those in the labor force to those not in the labor force

The dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically not in the labor force and those typically in the labor force. It is used to measure the pressure on the productive population.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Total fertility rate</span> Number of children a woman is expected to have barring select circumstances

The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime, if they were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through their lifetime, and they were to live from birth until the end of their reproductive life.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sub-replacement fertility</span> Total fertility rate that (if sustained) leads to each new generation being less populous

Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate (TFR) that leads to each new generation being less populous than the older, previous one in a given area. The United Nations Population Division defines sub-replacement fertility as any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman of childbearing age, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4 in some developing countries because of higher mortality rates. Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement was 2.33 children per woman in 2003. This can be "translated" as 2 children per woman to replace the parents, plus a "third of a child" to make up for the higher probability of males born and mortality prior to the end of a person's fertile life. In 2020, the global average fertility rate was around 2.4 children born per woman.

Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a reduction in a human population size. Throughout history, Earth's total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Population growth</span> Increase in the number of individuals in a population

Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. Actual global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 8.1 billion in 2024. The UN projected population to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. However, some academics outside the UN have increasingly developed human population models that account for additional downward pressures on population growth; in such a scenario population would peak before 2100. Others have challenged many recent population projections as having underestimated population growth.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Population pyramid</span> Graphical illustration showing distribution of age groups in a population

A population pyramid or "age-sex pyramid" is a graphical illustration of the distribution of a population by age groups and sex; it typically takes the shape of a pyramid when the population is growing. Males are usually shown on the left and females on the right, and they may be measured in absolute numbers or as a percentage of the total population. The pyramid can be used to visualize the age of a particular population. It is also used in ecology to determine the overall age distribution of a population; an indication of the reproductive capabilities and likelihood of the continuation of a species. Number of people per unit area of land is called population density.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ageing of Europe</span> Overview of ageing in Europe

The ageing of Europe, also known as the greying of Europe, is a demographic phenomenon in Europe characterised by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate, and a higher life expectancy among European populations. Low birth rates and higher life expectancy contribute to the transformation of Europe's population pyramid shape. The most significant change is the transition towards a much older population structure, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of the working age while the number of the retired population increases. The total number of the older population is projected to increase greatly within the coming decades, with rising proportions of the post-war baby-boom generations reaching retirement. This will cause a high burden on the working age population as they provide for the increasing number of the older population.

The relationship between fertility and intelligence has been investigated in many demographic studies. There is evidence that, on a population level, measures of intelligence such as educational attainment and literacy are negatively correlated with fertility rate in some contexts.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Human population projections</span> Estimated global human population

Projections of population growth are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future. These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future. These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth.

Fertility factors are determinants of the number of children that an individual is likely to have. Fertility factors are mostly positive or negative correlations without certain causations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Aging of the United States</span> Ongoing demographic trend

In recent decades, the fertility rate of the United States has declined below replacement level, prompting projections of an aging population and workforce, as is already happening elsewhere in the developed world and some developing countries. The decline has been most noticeable since after the Great Recession of the late 2000s. Nevertheless, the rate of aging in the United States remains slower than that seen in many other countries, including some developing ones, giving the nation a significant competitive advantage. Unintentional pregnancies have become less common; in particular, teenage pregnancies have dropped to record lows.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ageing of the United Kingdom</span>

The population of the United Kingdom is getting increasingly older, due to longer life expectancy and a sub-replacement fertility rate for little under 50 years. The society is expected to change as a result culturally and economically. By 2050, 1 in every 4 people is expected to be above the age of 65 and this will be more extreme in certain areas of the country.

Generation Alpha is a social cohort born between the early 2010s and mid 2020s. The birth years of Generation Alpha have seen a decline in birth rates, especially in the developed world.

References

  1. 1 2 3 Blue, Laura; Espenshade, Thomas J. (2011). "Population Momentum Across the Demographic Transition". Population and Development Review. 37 (4): 721–747. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00454.x. ISSN   0098-7921. PMC   3345894 . PMID   22319771.
  2. Bongaarts, John (2009). "Human population growth and the demographic transition". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 364 (1532): 2985–2990. doi:10.1098/rstb.2009.0137. ISSN   0962-8436. PMC   2781829 . PMID   19770150.
  3. "The impact of population momentum on future population growth" (PDF). United Nations Dept of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. October 2017.
  4. Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001) Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, 165
  5. Kim, Young J.; Schoen, Robert (1997-08-01). "Population momentum expresses population aging". Demography. 34 (3): 421–427. doi: 10.2307/3038294 . ISSN   0070-3370. JSTOR   3038294. PMID   9275250.
  6. Weeks, John Robert (2016). Population : an introduction to concepts and issues. Boston, MA: Cengage Learning. ISBN   9781305094505. OCLC   884617656.