Old estimates put the global population at 9 billion by 2037–2046, 14years after 8 billion, and 10 billion by 2032–2052, 18years after 9 billion; however these milestones are likely to be reached far sooner.[6][needs update] Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions and which variables are manipulated in projection calculations, especially the fertility variable. Long-range predictions to 2055 range from a population decline to 3.2 billion in the 'low scenario', to 'high scenarios' of 24.8 billion. One scenario predicts a massive increase to 256 billion by 2050, assuming fertility remains at 1995 levels.[7]
World population milestones in billions (UN estimates)[8]
Population
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Year
1804
1927
1960
1974
1987
1999
2011
2022
2035
2045
Years elapsed
-
123
33
14
13
12
12
11
15
17
World population milestones in billions (USCB estimates)
Population
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Year
1804
1927
1960
1974
1987
1999
2011
2022
2045
2054
Years elapsed
-
123
33
14
13
12
12
11
23
25
Global billionth milestones
There is no estimation for the exact day or month the world's population surpassed the one and two billion marks. The days of three and four billion were not officially noted, but the International Database of the United States Census Bureau places them in July 1960 and April 1974 respectively.[citation needed]
The United Nations Population Fund designated 12 October 1999 as the approximate day on which the world population reached six billion.[11] It was officially designated "The Day of Six Billion". Demographers do not universally accept this date as being exact. In fact, there has been subsequent research which places the day of six billion nearer to 18 June or 19 June 1999.[12] The International Programs division of the United States Census Bureau estimated that the world population reached six billion on 21 April 1999.[citation needed] United Nations Population Fund spokesman Omar Gharzeddine disputed the date of the Day of Six Billion by stating, "The U.N. marked the '6 billionth' [person] in 1999, and then a couple of years later the Population Division itself reassessed its calculations and said, actually, no, it was in 1998."[13]
The "Day of Seven Billion" was targeted by the United States Census Bureau to be in March 2012,[16] while the Population Division of the United Nations suggested 31 October 2011,[17] and the latter date was officially designated by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) as the approximate day on which the world's population reached seven billion people.[18] United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon spoke at the United Nations building in New York City on this milestone in the size of world population, and promoted the website 7 Billion Actions.[19][20] Ban Ki-moon did not choose a symbolic seven billionth baby, but several groups proposed candidates: Nargis Kumar of Uttar Pradesh, India,[21] Danica May Camacho of Manila, Philippines[22] and Wattalage Muthumai of Colombo, Sri Lanka.[23]
The "Day of Eight Billion" was targeted by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division to be on 15 November 2022.[24] Among babies born that day who were symbolically named as the world's eight billionth by various government agencies were: Vinice Mabansag (Tondo, Manila, Philippines);[25][26] Damián Ferrera (Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic);[25] and Arpi Kocharyan (Tsovinar, Armenia).[27]
Future
The United Nations Population Fund predicts that the global population will reach 9 billion in 2037 and 10 billion in 2058.[28]
National or subnational governments have sometimes made similar designations based on the date estimated by a demographic agency. Some national milestones relate to citizens rather than residents. Commentators in countries with high immigration have pointed out that a population milestone may be reached by an immigrant rather than natural increase.[29][30]
Complains that government promises of support were not kept. But, this was because of the difference of federal/central government policy during New Order and Reformasi (Otonomi Daerah)
"World Population to 2030"(PDF). New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Population Division. 2004: 3, 14. Archived(PDF) from the original on 15 January 2012. Retrieved 3 July 2010.{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
↑ "Key Findings". Long-Range Population Projections(PDF). New York: United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2003. Archived from the original(PDF) on 16 October 2018. Retrieved 16 October 2018.{{cite book}}: |work= ignored (help)
↑ United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. United Nations Publication. pp.i. ISBN9789210014380.
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