The population of the United Kingdom is getting increasingly older, due to longer life expectancy and a sub-replacement fertility rate for little under 50 years. The society is expected to change as a result culturally and economically. By 2050, 1 in every 4 people is expected to be above the age of 65 [1] and this will be more extreme in certain areas of the country. [1] [2]
The UK has undergone the demographic transition of its population, from a pre-industrial population pyramid (1st stage) all the way towards a post-industrial population pyramid (4th stage).
Before the 18th century, the United Kingdom retained an age structure universal to societies in the first stage of the transition theory, with high fertility rates and high mortality rates, [3] in the late 18th century, the Industrial Revolution began, kickstarting the country's transition into the second phase: mortality rates declined but birth rates stayed at the same level; [3] by 1870, the country had begun to transition into the third phase: [3] the birth rate began to decline from around near 5 children per woman to below replacement level in the 1930s. [3] The fourth phase of the transition began in the 1960s, when the fertility rate rose, and peaked during the middle of the decade, and then collapsed by 1973 to a below replacement level rate. Since then, the rate has not risen to an above replacement level fertility rate; this has resulted in a population which is currently ageing: [3] in 2007, for the first time in the country's history, there were more people over the age of 60 then there were under the age of 16. [4]
The United Kingdom's fertility rate has, since 1973 (little under 50 years), been in a sub-replacement state. [5] [6] The fertility rate of the country has declined from a peak of a nearly 5 children per woman in late 19th century. By the 1870s, the total fertility rate of the UK population declined from 4.88 children per woman in 1871, to 2.4 by 1921. [3] Traditional means of birth control were used such as abstinence and withdrawal facilitated the collapse of the birth rate, [3] this was also hastened by the 1930s by more modern methods of contraception which were beginning to be used with increased acceptance. [3] For the first time in 1973, the birth rate of the country fell below replacement level, due to liberalising acts of the NHS Reorganisation Act of 1973, the Abortion Act of 1967 and the Divorce Reform Act of 1969. [7]
Under 15 year old people currently comprise 19% of the population as of 2019. [1] This group is expected to decline proportionally of the population, they comprised 20.4% in 1999, and are estimated to be 16.9% in 2039. [1]
The working age population (usually defined as 16 year old to 64 year old people) currently comprises 62.5% of the population as of 2019. [1] The working age population is also expected to decline proportionally of the population. [6] In 1999, they made up 63.8%, in 2039 they are estimated to make up 59.2%. [1]
The over 65 population currently comprises 18.5% of the population as of 2019. [1] [8] In 1999 they comprised one in 6 people (15.8%) and are expected to rise to nearly one every in 4 (23.9%) by 2039. [1] This additionally extends to the over 85s as well, [9] in England alone, the total amount of those over the age of 5 will double from 1.3 million to 2.6 million by 2046. [10]
Culturally the society is expected to change as a larger proportion of the population comprises the over 65 population and fewer people comprise the under 15 year old population. [11] Social attitudes around old age are expected to change. [12] [13]
Increasingly, more people will begin to live past the age of 100 in future decades. [2] In 2020, there were a total of 15,120 centenarians in the UK. [14]
Economically, a larger proportion of public spending will need to be devoted to elderly care as the population gets older. [6] Similarly, those over the age of 65 may need to stay in employment, this has been a growing trend since 1998 when around 5% of over 65 year olds were employed to 2018 where just over 10% are still employed. [2] This is a particular problem as currently 30% of the UK's workforce is over the age of 50 in 2015 and due to the lack of young people, there will unlikely be enough people to replace those who leave the workforce due to old age. [15] [16]
NHS general spending is an example of this, with the total cost of a citizen rising as they get older. [2] Due to multimorbidity which rises with age, the cost of health spending goes up. [17]
Pensions are an additional problem, and are expected to continue to rise as the population gets older. [18] [6] [19] £96.7 billion was paid out in pensions in 2018 alone, with an increase of £1.2 billion from the previous year. [6] Proposed plans to alleviate the problem have been rising the pension age more. [20]
Population ageing is more prevalent in those living in rural defined areas than BUAs (built up areas [21] ). [1] [22] The cities identified as the youngest were primarily those with a higher proportion of migrant populations. [22] These were: Slough, Oxford, Luton, London, Cambridge, Leicester, Milton Keynes, Coventry, Cardiff, Bradford and Blackburn. [22] In conjunction, cities identified as the oldest in the UK primarily were on the coast, those were: Blackpool, Worthing, Bournemouth, Southend, Swansea, Mansfield, Barnsley, Wakefield, Birkenhead and Sunderland. [22] However the BBC notes that in general, the average age in most cities have grown older. [22]
Even though the life expectancy is increasing in the UK, the healthy life expectancy at birth (years lived in good health) and the disability-free life expectancy in people over 65 have not changed significantly. This means that the increasingly ageing population of the UK has an increasing need for healthcare and support. [23]
Older people are more likely to have multiple long-term health conditions (multimorbidity). As of 2024, one in four adults in England have two or more long-term health conditions. [24] It is estimated that by 2035 67.8% of people over 65 will have multimorbidity. [23]
Frailty refers to a state of health in which older adults gradually lose their bodies' in-built reserves and functioning, making them more vulnerable and less likely to recover. [25] [26] Between 2006 and 2017, the average age of frailty onset was around 69 and moderate or severe frailty affected more than half of British people aged over 85. 19% of people between 50 and 64 years had already had milt to moderate frailty. [27] [28] In England, the prevalence of frailty varies geographically with some areas having 4 times more people with frailty than others. [29] [28] People living in areas with the most deprivation are twice more likely to have frailty. [30] [28] Compared to those who do not have frailty, people with frailty in England are 6 times more likely to be admitted to hospital. [31] [28]
Due to climate change, the UK has experienced a significant increase in severe heat waves. [32] [33] Increasingly intense and prolonged heat periods can have dire health consequences and the elderly are at an increased risk of dying from heat exposure. [34] The UK's ageing population and the increasing prevalence of chronic diseases, particularly multimorbidity, will exacerbate the impact of climate change, making people more vulnerable to extreme temperatures. [35]
The British government has historically been very lax about the issue, in 1984 at the UN Conference on Population in Mexico, the government at the time stated:
The United Kingdom('s) government does not pursue a population policy in the sense of actively trying to influence the overall size of the population, its age-structure, or the components of change except in the field of immigration. Nor has it expressed a view about the size of population, or the age-structure, that would be desirable. ...The current level of births has not been the cause of general anxiety. The prevailing view is that decisions about fertility and childbearing are for people themselves to make, but that it is proper for government to provide individuals with the information and the means necessary to make their decisions effective. To this end, the government provides assistance with family planning as part of the National Health Service. The ‘ageing’ of the population does raise social and economic issues. However, it is believed that these will prove manageable; and also, to a degree, that society will adapt....’ [36]
The population of the United Kingdom was estimated at 67,596,281 in 2022. It is the 21st most populated country in the world and has a population density of 279 people per square kilometre, with England having significantly greater density than Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Almost a third of the population lives in south east England, which is predominantly urban and suburban, with 8,866,180 people in the capital city, London, whose population density was 5,640 inhabitants per square kilometre (14,600/sq mi) in 2022.
Death rates in the 20th century is the ratio of deaths compared to the population around the world throughout the 20th century. When giving these ratios, they are most commonly expressed by number of deaths per 1,000 people per year. Many factors contribute to death rates such as cause of death, increasing the death rate, an ageing population, which could increase and decrease the death rates by birth rates, and improvements in public health, decreasing the death rate.
Demography is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition, and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.
Old age is the range of ages for people nearing and surpassing life expectancy. People who are of old age are also referred to as: old people, elderly, elders, senior citizens, seniors or older adults. Old age is not a definite biological stage: the chronological age denoted as "old age" varies culturally and historically. Some disciplines and domains focus on the aging and the aged, such as the organic processes of aging (senescence), medical studies of the aging process (gerontology), diseases that afflict older adults (geriatrics), technology to support the aging society (gerontechnology), and leisure and sport activities adapted to older people.
The dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically not in the labor force and those typically in the labor force. It is used to measure the pressure on the productive population.
Population ageing is an increasing median age in a population because of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Most countries have rising life expectancy and an ageing population, trends that emerged first in developed countries but are now seen in virtually all developing countries. In most developed countries, the phenomenon of population aging began to gradually emerge in the late 19th century. The aging of the world population occurred in the late 20th century, with the proportion of people aged 65 and above accounting for 6% of the total population. This reflects the overall decline in the world's fertility rate at that time. That is the case for every country in the world except the 18 countries designated as "demographic outliers" by the United Nations. The aged population is currently at its highest level in human history. The UN predicts the rate of population ageing in the 21st century will exceed that of the previous century. The number of people aged 60 years and over has tripled since 1950 and reached 600 million in 2000 and surpassed 700 million in 2006. It is projected that the combined senior and geriatric population will reach 2.1 billion by 2050. Countries vary significantly in terms of the degree and pace of ageing, and the UN expects populations that began ageing later will have less time to adapt to its implications.
In demography and medical geography, epidemiological transition is a theory which "describes changing population patterns in terms of fertility, life expectancy, mortality, and leading causes of death." For example, a phase of development marked by a sudden increase in population growth rates brought by improved food security and innovations in public health and medicine, can be followed by a re-leveling of population growth due to subsequent declines in fertility rates. Such a transition can account for the replacement of infectious diseases by chronic diseases over time due to increased life span as a result of improved health care and disease prevention. This theory was originally posited by Abdel Omran in 1971.
Multimorbidity, also known as multiple long-term conditions (MLTC), means living with two or more chronic illnesses. For example, a person could have diabetes, heart disease and depression at the same time. Multimorbidity can have a significant impact on people's health and wellbeing. It also poses a complex challenge to healthcare systems which are traditionally focused on individual diseases. Multiple long-term conditions can affect people of any age, but they are more common in older age, affecting more than half of people over 65 years old.
The population of Taiwan is approximately 23.35 million as of April 2023.
Population change is simply the change in the number of people in a specified area during a specific time period. Demographics is the study of population statistics, their variation and its causes. These statistics include birth rates, death rates, migration rates and sex ratios. All of these statistics are investigated by censuses and surveys conducted over a period of time. Some demographic information can also be obtained from historical maps, and aerial photographs.
Frailty or frailty syndrome refers to a state of health in which older adults gradually lose their bodies' in-built reserves and functioning. This makes them more vulnerable, less able to recover and even apparently minor events can have drastic impacts on their physical and mental health.
The ageing of Europe, also known as the greying of Europe, is a demographic phenomenon in Europe characterised by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate, and a higher life expectancy among European populations. Low birth rates and higher life expectancy contribute to the transformation of Europe's population pyramid shape. The most significant change is the transition towards a much older population structure, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of the working age while the number of the retired population increases. The total number of the older population is projected to increase greatly within the coming decades, with rising proportions of the post-war baby-boom generations reaching retirement. This will cause a high burden on the working age population as they provide for the increasing number of the older population.
Japan has the highest proportion of elderly citizens of any country in the world. 2014 estimates showed that about 38% of the Japanese population was above the age of 60, and 25.9% was above the age of 65, a figure that increased to 29.1% by 2022. By 2050, an estimated one-third of the population in Japan is expected to be 65 and older. Population aging in Japan preceded similar trends in other countries, such as South Korea and China.
Health in the United Kingdom refers to the overall health of the population of the United Kingdom. This includes overall trends such as life expectancy and mortality rates, mental health of the population and the suicide rate, smoking rates, alcohol consumption, prevalence of diseases within the population and obesity in the United Kingdom. Three of these – smoking rates, alcohol consumption and obesity – were above the OECD average in 2015.
Ageing is the process of becoming older. The term refers mainly to humans, many other animals, and fungi, whereas for example, bacteria, perennial plants and some simple animals are potentially biologically immortal. In a broader sense, ageing can refer to single cells within an organism which have ceased dividing, or to the population of a species.
Singapore is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of more than $57,000. Life expectancy at birth is 82.3 and infant mortality is 2.7 per 1000 live births. The population is ageing and by 2030, 20% will be over 65. However it is estimated that about 85% of those over 65 are healthy and reasonably active. Singapore has a universal health care system.
Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is a process used by healthcare practitioners to assess the status of older people who might have frailty in order to optimize their subsequent management. These people often have complex, multiple and interdependent problems (multimorbidity) which make their care more challenging than in younger people, or those with just one medical problem. CGA is the core work of specialists in the care of older people, although many other health care practitioners either have not heard of it, or are not aware of what it actually is.
Australia has an ageing demographic. The proportion of the Australian population aged 65 and over was 15% in 2017, a trend which is expected to continue to grow. It is estimated that by 2057 older people will account for 22% of the Australian population which translates to 8.8 million people. This increase in elderly population is due to what is known as The Australian Baby Boom. This period refers to the post-war era in which total fertility rates (TFR) were approximately 3.0, resulting in 4.19 million births recorded. This number exceeded the number of births in Australia from the previous 20 years in which there were 1.63 million births, and the proceeding 20 years in when 2.56 million births were recorded. The baby boom children will be celebrating their 65th birthday between 2011 and 2030, the age which is referred to as elderly.
Dementia and Alzheimer's disease in Australia is a major health issue. Alzheimer's disease is the most common type of dementia in Australia. Dementia is an ever-increasing challenge as the population ages and life expectancy increases. As a consequence, there is an expected increase in the number of people with dementia, posing countless challenges to carers and the health and aged care systems. In 2018, an estimated 376,000 people had dementia; this number is expected to increase to 550,000 by 2030 and triple to 900,000 by 2050. The dementia death rate is increasing, resulting in the shift from fourth to second leading cause of death from 2006 to 2015. It is expected to become the leading cause of death over the next number of years. In 2011, it was the fourth leading cause of disease burden and third leading cause of disability burden. This is expected to remain the same until at least 2020.
China's population is aging faster than almost all other countries in modern history. In 2050, the proportion of Chinese over retirement age will become 39 percent of the total population according to projections. China is rapidly aging at an earlier stage of its development than other countries. Current demographic trends could hinder economic growth and create challenging social issues in China.
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