The population of the United Kingdom is getting increasingly older, due to longer life expectancy and a sub-replacement fertility rate for little under 50 years. The society is expected to change as a result culturally and economically. By 2050, 1 in every 4 people is expected to be above the age of 65 [1] and this will be more extreme in certain areas of the country. [1] [2]
The UK has undergone the demographic transition of its population, from a pre-industrial population pyramid (1st stage) all the way towards a post-industrial population pyramid (4th stage).
Before the 18th century, the United Kingdom retained an age structure universal to societies in the first stage of the transition theory, with high fertility rates and high mortality rates, [3] in the late 18th century, the Industrial Revolution began, kickstarting the country's transition into the second phase: mortality rates declined but birth rates stayed at the same level; [3] by 1870, the country had begun to transition into the third phase: [3] the birth rate began to decline from around near 5 children per woman to below replacement level in the 1930s. [3] The fourth phase of the transition began in the 1960s, when the fertility rate rose, and peaked during the middle of the decade, and then collapsed by 1973 to a below replacement level rate. Since then, the rate has not risen to an above replacement level fertility rate; this has resulted in a population which is currently ageing: [3] in 2007, for the first time in the country's history, there were more people over the age of 60 then there were under the age of 16. [4]
The United Kingdom's fertility rate has, since 1973 (little under 50 years), been in a sub-replacement state. [5] [6] The fertility rate of the country has declined from a peak of a nearly 5 children per woman in late 19th century. By the 1870s, the total fertility rate of the UK population declined from 4.88 children per woman in 1871, to 2.4 by 1921. [3] Traditional means of birth control were used such as abstinence and withdrawal facilitated the collapse of the birth rate, [3] this was also hastened by the 1930s by more modern methods of contraception which were beginning to be used with increased acceptance. [3] For the first time in 1973, the birth rate of the country fell below replacement level, due to liberalising acts of the NHS Reorganisation Act of 1973, the Abortion Act of 1967 and the Divorce Reform Act of 1969. [7]
Under 15 year old people currently comprise 19% of the population as of 2019. [1] This group is expected to decline proportionally of the population, they comprised 20.4% in 1999, and are estimated to be 16.9% in 2039. [1]
The working age population (usually defined as 16 year old to 64 year old people) currently comprises 62.5% of the population as of 2019. [1] The working age population is also expected to decline proportionally of the population. [6] In 1999, they made up 63.8%, in 2039 they are estimated to make up 59.2%. [1]
The over 65 population currently comprises 18.5% of the population as of 2019. [1] [8] In 1999 they comprised one in 6 people (15.8%) and are expected to rise to nearly one every in 4 (23.9%) by 2039. [1] This additionally extends to the over 85s as well, [9] in England alone, the total amount of those over the age of 5 will double from 1.3 million to 2.6 million by 2046. [10]
Culturally the society is expected to change as a larger proportion of the population comprises the over 65 population and fewer people comprise the under 15 year old population. [11] Social attitudes around old age are expected to change. [12] [13]
Increasingly, more people will begin to live past the age of 100 in future decades. [2] In 2020, there were a total of 15,120 centenarians in the UK. [14]
Economically, a larger proportion of public spending will need to be devoted to elderly care as the population gets older. [6] Similarly, those over the age of 65 may need to stay in employment, this has been a growing trend since 1998 when around 5% of over 65 year olds were employed to 2018 where just over 10% are still employed. [2] This is a particular problem as currently 30% of the UK's workforce is over the age of 50 in 2015 and due to the lack of young people, there will unlikely be enough people to replace those who leave the workforce due to old age. [15] [16]
NHS general spending is an example of this, with the total cost of a citizen rising as they get older. [2] Due to multi-morbidity which rises with age, the cost of health spending goes up. [17]
Pensions are an additional problem, and are expected to continue to rise as the population gets older. [18] [6] [19] £96.7 billion was paid out in pensions in 2018 alone, with an increase of £1.2 billion from the previous year. [6] Proposed plans to alleviate the problem have been rising the pension age more. [20]
Population ageing is more prevalent in those living in rural defined areas than BUAs (built up areas [21] ). [1] [22] The cities identified as the youngest were primarily those with a higher proportion of migrant populations. [22] These were: Slough, Oxford, Luton, London, Cambridge, Leicester, Milton Keynes, Coventry, Cardiff, Bradford and Blackburn. [22] In conjunction, cities identified as the oldest in the UK primarily were on the coast, those were: Blackpool, Worthing, Bournemouth, Southend, Swansea, Mansfield, Barnsley, Wakefield, Birkenhead and Sunderland. [22] However the BBC notes that in general, the average age in most cities have grown older. [22]
The British government has historically been very lax about the issue, in 1984 at the UN Conference on Population in Mexico, the government at the time stated:
The United Kingdom('s) government does not pursue a population policy in the sense of actively trying to influence the overall size of the population, its age-structure, or the components of change except in the field of immigration. Nor has it expressed a view about the size of population, or the age-structure, that would be desirable. ...The current level of births has not been the cause of general anxiety. The prevailing view is that decisions about fertility and childbearing are for people themselves to make, but that it is proper for government to provide individuals with the information and the means necessary to make their decisions effective. To this end, the government provides assistance with family planning as part of the National Health Service. The ‘ageing’ of the population does raise social and economic issues. However, it is believed that these will prove manageable; and also, to a degree, that society will adapt....’ [23]
Demographic features of the population of South Korea include population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects of the population. The common language and especially race are viewed as important elements by South Koreans in terms of identity, more than citizenship.
The population of the United Kingdom was estimated at 67,596,281 in 2022. It is the 21st most populated country in the world and has a population density of 279 people per square kilometre, with England having significantly greater density than Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Almost a third of the population lives in south east England, which is predominantly urban and suburban, with 8,866,180 people in the capital city, London, whose population density was 5,640 inhabitants per square kilometre (14,600/sq mi) in 2022.
Birth rate, also known as natality, is the total number of live human births per 1,000 population for a given period divided by the length of the period in years. The number of live births is normally taken from a universal registration system for births; population counts from a census, and estimation through specialized demographic techniques. The birth rate is used to calculate population growth. The estimated average population may be taken as the mid-year population.
The dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically not in the labor force and those typically in the labor force. It is used to measure the pressure on the productive population.
The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime, if they were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through their lifetime, and they were to live from birth until the end of their reproductive life.
Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate (TFR) that leads to each new generation being less populous than the older, previous one in a given area. The United Nations Population Division defines sub-replacement fertility as any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman of childbearing age, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4 in some developing countries because of higher mortality rates. Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement was 2.33 children per woman in 2003. This can be "translated" as 2 children per woman to replace the parents, plus a "third of a child" to make up for the higher probability of males born and mortality prior to the end of a person's fertile life. In 2020, the global average fertility rate was around 2.4 children born per woman.
Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a reduction in a human population size. Throughout history, Earth's total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end.
Population ageing is an increasing median age in a population because of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Most countries have rising life expectancy and an ageing population, trends that emerged first in developed countries but are now seen in virtually all developing countries. In most developed countries, the phenomenon of population aging began to gradually emerge in the late 19th century. The aging of the world population occurred in the late 20th century, with the proportion of people aged 65 and above accounting for 6% of the total population. This reflects the overall decline in the world's fertility rate at that time. That is the case for every country in the world except the 18 countries designated as "demographic outliers" by the United Nations. The aged population is currently at its highest level in human history. The UN predicts the rate of population ageing in the 21st century will exceed that of the previous century. The number of people aged 60 years and over has tripled since 1950 and reached 600 million in 2000 and surpassed 700 million in 2006. It is projected that the combined senior and geriatric population will reach 2.1 billion by 2050. Countries vary significantly in terms of the degree and pace of ageing, and the UN expects populations that began ageing later will have less time to adapt to its implications.
The pensions crisis or pensions timebomb is the predicted difficulty in paying for corporate or government employment retirement pensions in various countries, due to a difference between pension obligations and the resources set aside to fund them. The basic difficulty of the pension problem is that institutions must be sustained over far longer than the political planning horizon. Shifting demographics are causing a lower ratio of workers per retiree; contributing factors include retirees living longer, and lower birth rates. An international comparison of pension institution by countries is important to solve the pension crisis problem. There is significant debate regarding the magnitude and importance of the problem, as well as the solutions. One aspect and challenge of the "Pension timebomb" is that several countries' governments have a constitutional obligation to provide public services to its citizens, but the funding of these programs, such as healthcare are at a lack of funding, especially after the 2008 recession and the strain caused on the dependency ratio by an ageing population and a shrinking workforce, which increases costs of elderly care.
The population of Taiwan is approximately 23.35 million as of April 2023.
Population change is simply the change in the number of people in a specified area during a specific time period. Demographics is the study of population statistics, their variation and its causes. These statistics include birth rates, death rates, migration rates and sex ratios. All of these statistics are investigated by censuses and surveys conducted over a period of time. Some demographic information can also be obtained from historical maps, and aerial photographs.
The ageing of Europe, also known as the greying of Europe, is a demographic phenomenon in Europe characterised by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate, and a higher life expectancy among European populations. Low birth rates and higher life expectancy contribute to the transformation of Europe's population pyramid shape. The most significant change is the transition towards a much older population structure, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of the working age while the number of the retired population increases. The total number of the older population is projected to increase greatly within the coming decades, with rising proportions of the post-war baby-boom generations reaching retirement. This will cause a high burden on the working age population as they provide for the increasing number of the older population.
Japan has the highest proportion of elderly citizens of any country in the world. 2014 estimates showed that about 38% of the Japanese population was above the age of 60, and 25.9% was above the age of 65, a figure that increased to 29.1% by 2022. By 2050, an estimated one-third of the population in Japan is expected to be 65 and older. Population aging in Japan preceded similar trends in other countries, such as South Korea and China.
Pensions in Spain consist of a mandatory state pension scheme, and voluntary company and individual pension provision.
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Population decline has many potential effects on individual and national economy. The single best gauge of economic success is growth in GDP per capita, not GDP. GDP per capita is an approximate indicator of average living standards, for individual prosperity. Therefore, whether population decline has a positive or negative economic impact on a country's citizens depends on the rate of growth of GDP per capita, or alternatively, GDP growth relative to the rate of decline in the population.
In South Korea, aging refers to an increase in the proportion of senior citizens to the total population. The term "senior citizens" include those aged 65 or older. According to Article 3 no.1 of the Framework Act on Low Birthrate of an Aging Society, the term "aging population" refers to the increasing proportion of elderly people in the entire population.
In recent decades, the fertility rate of the United States has declined below replacement level, prompting projections of an aging population and workforce, as is already happening elsewhere in the developed world and some developing countries. The decline has been most noticeable since after the Great Recession of the late 2000s. Nevertheless, the rate of aging in the United States remains slower than that seen in many other countries, including some developing ones, giving the nation a significant competitive advantage. Unintentional pregnancies have become less common; in particular, teenage pregnancies have dropped to record lows.
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The population of the Netherlands is getting increasingly older, due to longer life expectancy and a sub-replacement fertility rate. In Dutch this phenomenon is called Vergrijzing. As of 1 January 2023 around 20% of the Dutch population is aged 65 or older. It is predicted that this will increase to 24% in 2035 with some areas facing more severe ageing than others, especially rural municipalities in the east of the country. It is expected that the following decades this percentage will continue to increase.
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