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A multiple breadbasket failure is the simultaneous disruption of grain production in several major agricultural regions globally, primarily due to acute climate events. This phenomenon has gained increasing attention[ clarification needed ] in climate risk assessment and food security studies, particularly as climate change threatens to increase its likelihood in coming decades, potentially resulting in international food insecurity, economic crises, and significant civil and political unrest.
Multiple breadbasket failure occurs when concurrent climate events simultaneously impact grain production in multiple key agricultural regions, known as breadbaskets, thus significantly affecting global food supply. These regions are primarily responsible for producing the world's four main grain crops: rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. Global nutrition heavily relies on these primary grains, which constitute nearly half of the average global caloric intake, of which rice and wheat alone contribute 19% and 18% of global calories respectively. [1]
The world's concentrated dependence on a small number of primary crops increases systemic vulnerability. Global caloric intake could be significantly reduced if climate conditions significantly reduce the yield of one primary crop, compared to a more diverse variety of crops that could result in greater flexibility with what climate conditions allow to grow and have high yields. [1] [2]
Food production exhibits significant geographic concentration, with approximately 60% of global food production occurring in only five nations: China, the United States, India, Brazil, and Argentina. Within these nations, production is further concentrated in specific regions. For instance, five states in north India accounted for 88% of the country's wheat production, [3] while five Midwestern states generate 61% of U.S. corn output, according to a June 2016 United States Department of Agriculture report. [4]
A 2012 report by the United Nations found that developing countries increasingly depend on grain imports, due to international market purchases frequently being more economically viable than domestic production. Nations such as Mexico, Egypt, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia maintain significant grain import requirements, while China heavily relies on soybean imports.[ clarification needed ] [1] [5]
While grain storage serves as a buffer against production shortfalls, current global storage capacity may prove insufficient to withstand major production shocks, despite historically high present-day levels. [1]
Research and statistical analysis conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute indicates that ongoing climate change is increasing both the likelihood and severity of future multiple breadbasket failures. A 2020 report by the institute estimated that by 2030, the probability of a greater than 15% shock to global grain production is projected to double, rising from a 1-in-100 year event to a 1-in-50 year occurrence and representing an 18% likelihood of such an event occurring within the 2030s. [1]
Furthermore, when extreme events push agricultural systems beyond critical environmental thresholds, they can induce rapid, nonlinear changes that may be difficult or impossible to reverse. This nonlinearity could manifest through sudden shifts in crop viability across regions, changes in soil fertility, or alterations to regional water availability that affect agricultural productivity. These interactions are particularly significant in major food-producing regions, where concurrent extreme events can create synchronized stress on global food production. [6]
Corn production faces particular risk due to it requiring temperatures not higher than about 20 °C (68 °F) to grow well, with higher temperatures resulting significantly smaller yields. [7] Key growing regions like the Midwestern United States face increased risk of crop failures or significantly decreased yields from both higher summer temperatures and excessive spring precipitation. Rice and soybean production also show heightened vulnerability to climate-related disruptions. Wheat production could be a notable exception to the other three primary grains, as agricultural and climate research indicated that it may benefit from higher temperatures in some major breadbaskets. [1] A 2024 study using Earth System Model climate simulations determined that at 1.5°C warming above pre-industrial levels, approximately 35% of major breadbasket regions are projected to experience extreme heat events. The emulated percentage increased to about 50% at 2.0°C warming, and further rises to approximately 70% and 90% at 3.0°C and 4.0°C warming respectively. Hot spells were projected to impact up to 96-98% of global agricultural land under high-emission scenarios. [8]
A different 2024 study using climate model simulations to emulate the period 2028-2057, corresponding to approximately 2°C warming above preindustrial CO2 levels under high-emission scenarios, projected significant increases in concurrent heat exposure across major agricultural regions. More specifically, the simulation projected the probability of major breadbaskets simultaneously experiencing at least five days of extreme heat during reproductive periods across more than half their croplands to rise from being "virtually unlikely" at the time of the study to 43% for maize production regions, 27% for wheat production regions, and 33% for both rice and soybean production region. Furthermore, the simulation projected the probabilities to rise to 91% for maize production, 83% for wheat production, 87% for rice production, and 80% for soybean production in 2050‒2079, corresponding to about 3°C warming. The study predicted that the Midwestern United States, Mediterranean, and northern South Asia were projected to experience extreme heat affecting more than half their maize reproductive days by 2028-2057. Central Canada and Eastern Europe were projected to suffer nearly two-thirds of wheat reproductive days experiencing extreme heat by 2050-2079. [9]
Earth System Model climate simulations projected that less than 10% of agricultural land would be impacted by wet spells at up to 1.5°C warming, but would increase to roughly 20% for rice, corn, and soybean areas at 4.0°C warming. By 2.0°C warming, approximately 85-90% of agricultural land was projected to be susceptible to at least one type of climate extreme, whether drought, excess rainfall, or a heat wave. [8]
The combination of multiple extreme events, known as compound events, can create particularly severe risks for multiple agricultural systems at once. These may include simultaneous heat waves and droughts across different breadbasket regions, or sequential extreme events that prevent recovery between impacts. Research indicates that compound events are becoming more frequent with climate change and pose increasing risks to worldwide food security. During major events, such as the 2010 Russian heatwave, temperature extremes combined with drought conditions led to substantial crop losses. [6]
Research led by Columbia University and the German Council on Foreign Relations indicates that concurrent weather extremes in mid-latitude regions caused by climate change could trigger simultaneous extreme weather events across different breadbasket regions. The "rebalancing" of atmospheric wave patterns in one area of the polar jet stream following a meteorological disruption in another could result in more severe heat extremes in different areas of the globe while producing excessive rainfall in another far away. Such jet stream meanders, or Rossby waves, could impact multiple breadbaskets at once, as was the case with the 2010 Pakistan floods being linked to the 2010 Russian wildfires about 1,500 miles away, both resulting in substantial agricultural losses. The research also found that commonly used climate models failed to account for such cases, leading to an underestimation of climate change's potential impact on global food security. [10] [11] [12]
The loss of crop yields caused by multiple breadbasket failure can not only result in decreased food supplies and increased food prices to impact global populations, but can also prevent humanitarian agencies from being able to provide food aid to regions in hunger or famine conditions. [6] [13]
Food insecurity resulting from multiple breadbasket failure can drive significant population movements. Climate research indicates that weather extremes increasingly contribute to human displacement across all regions, with food insecurity and malnutrition acting as compounding factors, particularly in Africa, Central America, and South America. These displacement patterns can create additional humanitarian challenges and lead to further regional instability. [6] [13] [14] [15]
The financial implications of multiple breadbasket failure extend far beyond direct agricultural losses. Production shocks caused by climate events can trigger substantial price volatility in crop prices and related markets, including fertilizer production and energy markets. These market disruptions can cascade through the global financial system, with the potential of indirectly impacting all economic sectors and metrics in both developed and developing nations. [1] [16] [17] Wheat price spikes in particular can have particularly severe impacts on food security, as wheat serves as a staple food for over 2.5 billion individuals globally. Supply chain disruptions can compound existing economic challenges, leading to increased production costs and market instability. Economic research indicated that these price fluctuations disproportionately affect low and middle-income countries, particularly in regions already experiencing economic or political instability. [17]
While global stocks-to-use ratios of approximately 30% in 2025 make complete grain depletion within a single year highly unlikely, even modest reductions in these ratios can trigger significant price volatility. Historical precedent suggests that a multiple breadbasket failure reducing stock-to-use ratios to 20% could result in temporary price increases of 100%. [1] [16]
The effects of multiple breadbasket failure could extend beyond economic disruption to impact global social stability. The world's approximately 750 million poorest individuals face particular vulnerability to food price spikes. Historically, significant food price increases have contributed to social unrest, political instability, increased instances of terrorism, and broader global conflicts. [1] [18] [19]
Multiple breadbasket failures can trigger social instability through food price increases and supply disruptions. Historical examples include the 2007-2008 world food price crisis, which contributed to civil unrest in multiple regions and played a significant role in sparking the Arab Spring and subsequent Arab Winter, leading to wider conflicts such as the Syrian civil war, [20] [21] the Iraqi insurgency, [22] and the Libyan crisis. [23] [24] Historical research indicates that countries with existing governance challenges or political instability are particularly vulnerable to food-related social unrest, such as Yemen, [25] Tunisia, [26] and Egypt. [27]
Assistant Secretary of Defense Sharon E. Burke and Cornell professor Bram Govaerts used the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an example of how conflict in regions with breadbaskets can cause global food supply chain disruptions and food availability impacts. This is due to Russia and Ukraine collectively representing the first and fifth largest wheat exporters globally, with exports valued at over $11 billion, with the conflict significantly decreasing exports. [28] [29]
A cereal is a grass cultivated for its edible grain. Cereals are the world's largest crops, and are therefore staple foods. They include rice, wheat, rye, oats, barley, millet, and maize. Edible grains from other plant families, such as buckwheat and quinoa, are pseudocereals. Most cereals are annuals, producing one crop from each planting, though rice is sometimes grown as a perennial. Winter varieties are hardy enough to be planted in the autumn, becoming dormant in the winter, and harvested in spring or early summer; spring varieties are planted in spring and harvested in late summer. The term cereal is derived from the name of the Roman goddess of grain crops and fertility, Ceres.
Agricultural productivity is measured as the ratio of agricultural outputs to inputs. While individual products are usually measured by weight, which is known as crop yield, varying products make measuring overall agricultural output difficult. Therefore, agricultural productivity is usually measured as the market value of the final output. This productivity can be compared to many different types of inputs such as labour or land. Such comparisons are called partial measures of productivity.
The breadbasket of a country or of a region is an area which, because of the richness of the soil and/or advantageous climate, produces large quantities of wheat or other grain. Rice bowl is a similar term used to refer to Southeast Asia; California's Salinas Valley is sometimes referred to as America's salad bowl. Such regions may be the subject of fierce political disputes, which may even escalate into full military conflicts.
Agriculture is a major industry in the United States, which is a net exporter of food. As of the 2017 census of agriculture, there were 2.04 million farms, covering an area of 900 million acres (1,400,000 sq mi), an average of 441 acres per farm.
Subsistence agriculture occurs when farmers grow crops on smallholdings to meet the needs of themselves and their families. Subsistence agriculturalists target farm output for survival and for mostly local requirements. Planting decisions occur principally with an eye toward what the family will need during the coming year, and only secondarily toward market prices. Tony Waters, a professor of sociology, defines "subsistence peasants" as "people who grow what they eat, build their own houses, and live without regularly making purchases in the marketplace".
The grain trade refers to the local and international trade in cereals such as wheat, barley, maize, and rice, and other food grains. Grain is an important trade item because it is easily stored and transported with limited spoilage, unlike other agricultural products. Healthy grain supply and trade is important to many societies, providing a caloric base for most food systems as well as important role in animal feed for animal agriculture.
Intensive crop farming is a modern industrialized form of crop farming. Intensive crop farming's methods include innovation in agricultural machinery, farming methods, genetic engineering technology, techniques for achieving economies of scale in production, the creation of new markets for consumption, patent protection of genetic information, and global trade. These methods are widespread in developed nations.
Agriculture is the largest employment sector in Bangladesh, making up 14.2 percent of Bangladesh's GDP in 2017 and employing about 42.7 percent of the workforce. As of the financial year 2022 to 2023, the agricultural sector contributed to more than 12% of GDP. The performance of this sector has an overwhelming impact on major macroeconomic objectives like employment generation, poverty alleviation, human resources development, food security, and other economic and social forces. A plurality of Bangladeshis earn their living from agriculture. Due to a number of factors, Bangladesh's labour-intensive agriculture has achieved steady increases in food grain production despite the often unfavorable weather conditions. These include better flood control and irrigation, a generally more efficient use of fertilisers, as well as the establishment of better distribution and rural credit networks.
Animal feed is food given to domestic animals, especially livestock, in the course of animal husbandry. There are two basic types: fodder and forage. Used alone, the word feed more often refers to fodder. Animal feed is an important input to animal agriculture, and is frequently the main cost of the raising or keeping of animals. Farms typically try to reduce cost for this food, by growing their own, grazing animals, or supplementing expensive feeds with substitutes, such as food waste like spent grain from beer brewing.
Food versus fuel is the dilemma regarding the risk of diverting farmland or crops for biofuels production to the detriment of the food supply. The biofuel and food price debate involves wide-ranging views and is a long-standing, controversial one in the literature. There is disagreement about the significance of the issue, what is causing it, and what can or should be done to remedy the situation. This complexity and uncertainty are due to the large number of impacts and feedback loops that can positively or negatively affect the price system. Moreover, the relative strengths of these positive and negative impacts vary in the short and long terms, and involve delayed effects. The academic side of the debate is also blurred by the use of different economic models and competing forms of statistical analysis.
Agriculture in Spain is important to the national economy. The primary sector activities accounting for agriculture, husbandry, fishing and silviculture represented a 2.7% of the Spanish GDP in 2017, with an additional 2.5% represented by the agrofood industry.
Leymus racemosus is a species of perennial wild rye known by the common name mammoth wild rye. It is native to southeastern and eastern Europe, Middle Asia, Caucasus, Siberia, China, Mongolia, New Zealand, and parts of North America. Culms are 50–100 cm long, and 10–12 mm in diameter.
A grain is a small, hard, dry fruit (caryopsis) – with or without an attached hull layer – harvested for human or animal consumption. A grain crop is a grain-producing plant. The two main types of commercial grain crops are cereals and legumes.
In July 1973, the Soviet Union purchased 10 million short tons of grain from the United States at subsidized prices, which caused global grain prices to soar. Crop shortfalls in 1971 and 1972 forced the Soviet Union to look abroad for grain. Hoping to prevent famine or other crisis, Soviet negotiators worked out a deal to buy grain on credit, but quickly exceeded their credit limit. American negotiators did not realize that both the Soviets and the world grain market had suffered shortfalls, and thus subsidized the purchase, leading it to be dubbed the "Great Grain Robbery". The strategy backfired and intensified the crisis: global food prices rose at least 30 percent, and grain stockpiles were decimated.
There are numerous effects of climate change on agriculture, many of which are making it harder for agricultural activities to provide global food security. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns often result in lower crop yields due to water scarcity caused by drought, heat waves and flooding. These effects of climate change can also increase the risk of several regions suffering simultaneous crop failures. Currently this risk is regarded as rare but if these simultaneous crop failures did happen they would have significant consequences for the global food supply. Many pests and plant diseases are also expected to either become more prevalent or to spread to new regions. The world's livestock are also expected to be affected by many of the same issues, from greater heat stress to animal feed shortfalls and the spread of parasites and vector-borne diseases.
Food prices refer to the average price level for food across countries, regions and on a global scale. Food prices affect producers and consumers of food. Price levels depend on the food production process, including food marketing and food distribution. Fluctuation in food prices is determined by a number of compounding factors. Geopolitical events, global demand, exchange rates, government policy, diseases and crop yield, energy costs, availability of natural resources for agriculture, food speculation, changes in the use of soil and weather events directly affect food prices. To a certain extent, adverse price trends can be counteracted by food politics.
Nuclear famine is a hypothesized famine considered a potential threat following global or regional nuclear exchange. It is thought that even subtle cooling effects resulting from a regional nuclear exchange could have a substantial impact on agriculture production, triggering a food crisis amongst the world's survivors.
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a set of farming methods that has three main objectives with regards to climate change. Firstly, they use adaptation methods to respond to the effects of climate change on agriculture. Secondly, they aim to increase agricultural productivity and to ensure food security for a growing world population. Thirdly, they try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture as much as possible. Climate-smart agriculture works as an integrated approach to managing land. This approach helps farmers to adapt their agricultural methods to the effects of climate change.
Climate change and agriculture are complexly related processes. In the United States, agriculture is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG), behind the energy sector. Direct GHG emissions from the agricultural sector account for 8.4% of total U.S. emissions, but the loss of soil organic carbon through soil erosion indirectly contributes to emissions as well. While agriculture plays a role in propelling climate change, it is also affected by the direct and secondary consequences of climate change. USDA research indicates that these climatic changes will lead to a decline in yield and nutrient density in key crops, as well as decreased livestock productivity. Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to U.S. agriculture due to the sensitivity of agricultural productivity and costs to changing climate conditions. Rural communities dependent on agriculture are particularly vulnerable to climate change threats.
During 2022 and 2023 there were food crises in several regions as indicated by rising food prices. In 2022, the world experienced significant food price inflation along with major food shortages in several regions. Sub-Saharan Africa, Iran, Sri Lanka, Sudan and Iraq were most affected. Prices of wheat, maize, oil seeds, bread, pasta, flour, cooking oil, sugar, egg, chickpea and meat increased. Many factors have contributed to the ongoing world food crisis. These include supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021–2023 global energy crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and floods and heatwaves during 2021. Droughts were also a factor; in early 2022, some areas of Spain and Portugal lost 60–80% of their crops due to widespread drought.
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